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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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marknccbch
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Melbourne [Re: michgirl]
      #62963 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:37 AM

Michgirl,

Florida today has updates on happenings around Brevard. I do know where Forest Lakes is (520 and I95)
haven't heard anything..

as for FlaToday, website is here http://flatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Melbourne [Re: KiminCanada]
      #62964 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:44 AM

Quote:

Hi everyone.....great job on keeping us all informed.

I have 2 questions if I might.......Do you at all see Wilma curving back into the States or Canada.

Also, CNN this morning said Alpha was gone.....is that right????

Thanks

Kim




Hi Kim,
That is not the vibe I'm getting off the models in the last 24 hours...
Our options with Wilma after Florida are simple:
1) She gets whipped up into the graveyard within the barotropic region of an intensifying coastal cyclogenisis along the U.S. Mid Atlantic...and "casperates" - my invented term for becoming none-consequentially invisible
or
2) She gets pulled up the warm conveyor belt steering field and is utterly gobbled alive by the faaaaar superior mechanical power of the extra-tropical system.

3 days ago, if you'd asked me I'd have picked option 2. The possibility that a -3.5SD anomaly, centered near S PA also responsible for generating a powerful Nor'easter (seemed like it was attempting to phase Wilma's death gasp in for a kind of pheonix phenom), was all too tastey to ignore. ...Basically, that Wilma would join the party by getting pulled up the warm conveyor belt - offering some semblence of a "Perfect Storm" type scenario - where the two would phase near the eastern tip of Long Island.. Essentially, a dooms day scenario for eastern New England up through Nova Scotia.

...Since then, the models, particularly the GFS and the those that are derived from the GFS, they have been finding least excuse to keep the two entities separate until Wilma completely deteriorates. In fact, as the models have it I would be less inclined to really think Wilma will transition into anything - more like, get abolished is what the GFS from 18Z yesterday, and then 00Z and 06Z overnight, has been indicating... Though, as a correction and perhaps a better intuitive fit, I think a substantial amount of her mojo is going to getting leached off - kind of like a black hole sucks off plasma from a nearby stellar companion - and this will aid in intensification with all that latent heat injection.

...This is an utterly fascinating, somewhat rare scenario; even in the lesser phased result that is true.

A coastal storm of all seasons really, will be taking place overnight and Tuesday. In VT, there are Winter Storm watches posted and the FOUS numbers of the NAM are indicating better than a foot of snow as far SE as Rutland (I'd show you the grid but the cut/paste makes the data too difficult to deal with)... While that is happening, Nantuckett (Island) should be about 62F (...I can just hear those Floridian's terror over bone-chilling 62 degrees...) with winds gusting to near hurricane force... Absolutely phenomenal H850mb thermal gradient and baroclinicity bifurcating the area signals extreme lower tropospheric instability (not to mention mesoscale frontogenic forcing normally associate with cyclogenisis). This will maximize the PW values that are exceeding 2", over a 14 hour interval. Excessive rain potential exists over an area that has very low F guidance due to anomalous event earlier in the month. We have wet ground and week root systems (thank goodness the foliage is half stripped) and rivers saying "go ahead, I are yah to even spill a cup of water", and they'll be over their banks... All the while, a hurricane is passing some 200nautical miles SE of Cape? Gee whiz.


This is really turning out to be one hell of a stormy month up here in tattered and torn New England...But we'll never making much press in the matter in lieu of the bigger issues down S this year.

Anyway, at least for New England, we really don't need to have Wilma - per say - to have a potentially destructive event, though Wilma will be partially to blame for bringing her fuel up into this extra-tropical system. New England to Nova Scotia are going to have a notable Nor'easter with winds gusting to 55kts and torrents of rain anyway - there is still some wild card about how much of Wilma will be incorporated, but at this time, the full-phased hyper storm scenario is appearing less likely... That really would have been just about the only way Wilma could have had any secondary U.S. or Nova Scotia type impact, is through a hybrid type rarety; due to the fact that the large scale synoptics responsible for important East Coastal cyclogenisis had proxy and presents in the spacial-temporal arrangement of all players.

It just intrigues me that with a ridge in the Atlantic E of 65W, and such a huge negative anomaly along the App. Cordellera, that Wilma can be modeled to get thrown into cold labradore waters SE of Nova Scotia (GFS) to where it just...poof, ceases to exist... I would have thought that a more N turn would be warranted, like the model suggested 3 days ago and has stubburnly lost and refuse to negotiate in the matter.. (can you tell I'm frustrated).. Anyway, it is worth noting that a) this isn't etched in stone and b)...the NAM, which was entirely useless up until last night's 00Z run, has been showing a bit more of a relationship with the Wilma and the extra-tropical, mid Atlantic cyclogenisis; much less of a "dumb-belled" looking system and a bit more singular synthesis of the two... But then again, if the NAM solution pans out, you'd expect a deeper result, too - so something is wrong there...

Basically...No Wilma in the sense of a secondary hurricane impact but definitely a very complex series of events over the next 24 to 36 hours!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 24 2005 11:54 AM)


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Giggles9CC
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Lake Mary, FL
Re: conditions [Re: GLT]
      #62965 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:46 AM

I work up in Lake Mary, right above Longwood--and yes, I'm at work And we have been told there is no UPS and no FedEx service today, but the post office is open. That should help your friend....I'd say, don't go to work!

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TinaB
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62966 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:46 AM

Quote:

Just recently scrolling at the bottom of the tv screen was a list of counties under a hurrinace warning including mine Pasco. Other counties are Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Sarasota, De Soto. I thought as of about an hour ago, conditions were improving on the west coast. Is there more going on than I thought? Several stations are scrolling......




It is my understanding that those counties are under a tropical strom warning, not a hurricane warning. Not sure where the TV is getting their info. Directly from the NHC:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND
TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...
HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.

I think this is in effect until 2pm today. It doesn't mean however, that we will experience those conditions until the cutoff time. It's just a warning of potential weather. I think you can be pretty confident that Pasco is pretty much safe from hurricane conditions at this point. The winds are still a little gusty, but otherwise things look great here in Tampa!

Edited by TinaB (Mon Oct 24 2005 11:50 AM)


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62967 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:49 AM

Looking at the end of the visible GOES loop it looks to me like she's starting to elongate and displace, but I may be wrong. Hopefully once offshore it will be the last we'll ever see of Wilma here in Florida. By the way, the sun is shining where I am here in Tampa; so for what it's worth, there is a light at the end of the tunnel!

Quote:

Just recently scrolling at the bottom of the tv screen was a list of counties under a hurrinace warning including mine Pasco. Other counties are Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Sarasota, De Soto. I thought as of about an hour ago, conditions were improving on the west coast. Is there more going on than I thought? Several stations are scrolling......




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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: Melbourne [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62969 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:50 AM

Thank you so much for the reply but sorry you lost me......Does this mean you don't think Wilma will come back and hit Canada or the States????

My reason for asking is I am flying out of Buffalo very early Wed morning and I am just curious if I should move my flight up to Tues night????

What do you all think????

Sorry for asking such a unimportant question when peoples homes are being damaged with this terrible storm but if I can all avoid my flight being cancelled by moving it I would like to.

Thanks again for all your help.

Kim


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: New warning? [Re: TinaB]
      #62971 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:53 AM

Quote:

The winds are still a little gusty, but otherwise things look great here in Tampa!




This is what I thought here in Land o Lakes. Channel 15 is one station and alittle earlier channel 13 was the same. Im just confused ....before Wilma came onshore we were in a TS warning...but now a Hurricane warning??


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TinaB
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62972 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:55 AM

Quote:



This is what I thought here in Land o Lakes. Channel 15 is one station and alittle earlier channel 13 was the same. Im just confused ....before Wilma came onshore we were in a TS warning...but now a Hurricane warning??




I think the TV's must have their scrollers wrong...I don't think we have ever been under a hurricane warning in Hillsborough or Pasco County. I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I've been watching this like a hawk since last week and don't recall one.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Melbourne [Re: KiminCanada]
      #62973 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:57 AM

Quote:

Thank you so much for the reply but sorry you lost me......Does this mean you don't think Wilma will come back and hit Canada or the States????

My reason for asking is I am flying out of Buffalo very early Wed morning and I am just curious if I should move my flight up to Tues night????

What do you all think????

Sorry for asking such a unimportant question when peoples homes are being damaged with this terrible storm but if I can all avoid my flight being cancelled by moving it I would like to.

Thanks again for all your help.

Kim




Sorry, I'd hoped that some of the answers were implicit in that last post (hope it wasn't a waste of time)..
Question 1: No
Question 2: Not likely, but delays are always possible in active weather regimes.
Question 3: Don't know what the others think but I think you should be Ok in BUF.


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: New warning? [Re: TinaB]
      #62974 - Mon Oct 24 2005 11:58 AM

Im beginning to think the same...they're scrollers are wrong. Pasco was never in the Hurricane Warning area to begin with...just TS warning.

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KiminCanada
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Re: Melbourne [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62975 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:05 PM

No it was very informative...I am learning alot about this active type of weather from you all.

I just wanted to make sure I understood correctly.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.....


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michgirl
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Melbourne [Re: marknccbch]
      #62978 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:12 PM

Mark,
Thank you again for taking the time to keep me aprised. It is so difficult to be so far away here in Michigan and try to wonder what the situation is down there. The last news blip I caught on the net was a flash flood warning for that area......Hopefully all fares well for you and everyone else in that area. God Bless....


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida 28.00N 81.90W
Re: conditions [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #62979 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 PM

I'll second that, Guppie Grouper! I would say that the winds may have even picked up a bit here as the storm moves off the coast and into the Atlantic...which was not unexpected given the size of the storm and the relative position of where the heavy bands are as it passes by our area. About an hour ago, a gust came through here that knocked over one of my little tables outside, shattering the glass table top and sending whatever was on it about 2 feet away....I was a little shocked at that.
This storm reminds me a lot of what Charley was like last year here where I live...gusty winds, not a whole lot of rain.
I hope all of our friends in all the affected areas are safe and haven't seen too much damage.
I am blowing Wilma a BIG FAT KISS GOODBYE!
I sure hope to hear that Polk County schools will be open tomorrow...my kids are crawling the walls...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: conditions [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62980 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:20 PM

good morning to our systems... bye bye to Wilma
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCwilma297_G12.jpg

later Guys!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/RGB.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:23 PM)


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62981 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:24 PM

Pinellas and Pasco were never in a hurricane warning or hurricane watch. In Tarpon Springs its a bit breezy but actually nice outside. I moved my garbage cans in last night but left the porch furniture out and it hasn't moved. I never even considered putting the aluminum panels up.

Edited by pincty (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:25 PM)


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marknccbch
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 6
Re: Melbourne [Re: michgirl]
      #62982 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:31 PM

Michgirl,

yea your parents live close to lakes and the St Johns River is not that far way.

The gusts really picked up around 11:30. I lost one of my washingtonians. It was about 30 feet tall and just uprooted. Luckily, no damage other than the fence. so now we get to pick up palm fronds and an enitire tree.

the wind is more from the N or the NNW and we are not getting the gusts like earlier. The worst should be behind us now.

Hope your parents are OK


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Wilma Nearing Florida Exit as a Category 2 Over West Palm Beach [Re: MikeC]
      #62983 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:32 PM

Anyone know about any damage in Fort Lauderdale? Hope everyone in the path is safe and not too much damage although
I would imagine there would be a lot of downed power lines and trees uprooted. At least Wilma was a fast mover.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: conditions [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62984 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:39 PM

Quote:

good morning to our systems... bye bye to Wilma
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCwilma297_G12.jpg

later Guys!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/RGB.jpg




yeah...it's gonna be a phenomenally quick improvement down there.... i'd say by 3 pm there will be a virtual none-event, light N breeze with a few cumulous in the area and a very nice evening...

just take a look at quick the backside of Wilma's circumvellate is approaching Naples... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Actually...3pm might be too long... I suspect the most of Penisula will be fair weather during the mid afternoon... May be hard to think of that now but when it clears and the sun comes there's nothing immediately upstream to suggest anything but quiescently placid conditions during the late afternoon - at the latest..

Amazing how quick..


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: New warning? [Re: pincty]
      #62985 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:42 PM

Yep that is what I said...but why are some stations now scrolling we are???

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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62986 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:48 PM

Tell me the station and I'll put it on and check.

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