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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: New warning? [Re: pincty]
      #62987 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:55 PM

Quote:

Tell me the station and I'll put it on and check.




Like I said in an earlier post...channel 15 had a box at the top left corner listing the counties with a hurricane warning and channel 13 was scrolling at the bottom. I do not know if it is still there but it was from about 11 am till 11:45 am.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Some Palm Bay flooding pics [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #62988 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:56 PM

The height of it for Brevard county appears to be behind us now. It's almost 15 degrees cooler than it was early this morning. It's incredible to have a hurricane come through to usher in Florida's Fall.

Some pictures via links to make life easiest:

Pic 1
Pic 2
Pic 3
Pic 4
Pic 5


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John Mellonhead
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 3
Loc: Davie, FL
Re: Wilma Nearing Florida Exit as a Category 2 Over West Palm Beach [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #62989 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:00 PM

Quote:

Anyone know about any damage in Fort Lauderdale? Hope everyone in the path is safe and not too much damage although
I would imagine there would be a lot of downed power lines and trees uprooted. At least Wilma was a fast mover.




I live about 7mi SW. I would think the whole county has no power. I have 80% trees snapped or blown over. Fences and gutters down. After going through Katrina where we had 90Mph gusts, I would say at the peak here we had 80-100mph sustained winds for 15 minutes with gusts about 120-130. I was doing some category 3 praying.

Roundup of SE Florida....talked to 7 friends family ranging from Biscayne Bay up to Pt St Lucie.

Coconut Grove- 20th floor high rise had sliding glass buckle in and blow out. Ended up in a closet for a while.

Broward- all screens ripped off. Patios and shutters destroyed on 3 homes. Almost all trees down. Localized flooding.

Miami Shores- Satelite ripped off roof attached to wood causing deterioration of rest of roof. Wooden fence and all trees down.

Lake Worth-(sw Palm beach) Wooden sturdy carport blown to bits. 50 ft tree snapped and landed on house. Whitecaps and emtying of pond.

Pt St Lucie- New roof leaking in multiple places. Estimated winds at 100mph after going through storms last year.

Nobody I talked to in a 110 mile stretch has power. Serious but non-catastrophic damage all throughout SE.

Should be a fun recovery.


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62990 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:02 PM

I just checked and didn't see a thing. Trust me, if it was on it had to be an error. It's beautiful out here right now.

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: New warning? [Re: pincty]
      #62991 - Mon Oct 24 2005 01:03 PM

Quote:

I just checked and didn't see a thing. Trust me, if it was on it had to be an error. It's beautiful out here right now.




Exactly...thats why I said it had to be an error.


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Trekman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL 30.44N 86.62W
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62995 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:01 PM

000
WTNT64 KNHC 241749
TCUAT4
HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA RESTRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 3 OVER THE GULF STREAM...

AT ABOUT 120 PM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE Wilma WERE NEAR 115
MPH...IN A SMALL REGION SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY APPROXIMATELY 230 PM EDT...
PRIMARILY TO REVISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.

FORECASTER KNABB

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: New warning? [Re: Southern4sure]
      #62996 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:02 PM

Still having some 21+ gusts according to my weather station here in Orlando by the exec airport and still raining though the sun just started peeking out. 59 degrees.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: New warning? [Re: Trekman]
      #62997 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:22 PM

I don't know that Wilma actually "restrengthened"... it is probably about as strong now as it was when it left the peninsula, though the max winds may have increased somewhat just due to the fact that it is back over water and the frictional drag is less. Very little weakening seemed to occur over the peninsula... the pressure probably rose only about 5-6 mb.

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NorEaster
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
And the beat goes on dum dum dum..Super Storm NorEaster forming... [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62998 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:29 PM

Accuweather has been predicting this for the past week, but I wanted to wait for my NWS folks to confirm anything before I started to take notice.

As soon as I saw this..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

I knew the established meteorolgists were now on board.

Here is the scenario according to Accuweather...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp

To further track the storm I'm going with the following page...

http://wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

A couple more links of interest...

http://www.foxphiladelphia.com/weather/

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9

Edited by NorEaster (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:37 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: New warning? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63000 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:35 PM

Quote:

I don't know that Wilma actually "restrengthened"... it is probably about as strong now as it was when it left the peninsula, though the max winds may have increased somewhat just due to the fact that it is back over water and the frictional drag is less. Very little weakening seemed to occur over the peninsula... the pressure probably rose only about 5-6 mb.




...i was thinking the same thing, that Wilma decoupled in the frictional environment of land-based boundary layer, as she moved across the peninsula and that her max winds probably never really came down all that much but were lifted above.. now (as you hint) that she is out over water, maybe can once again couple her wind field with the ss...

...but, in the end i have to give it to NHC because they have several techniques, tried and true, for determining wind max and i doubt all those agencies were wrong... ho - hum..

...i'm a little concerned when looking at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html .....that Wilma may pass a little bit closer to the ne u.s. coastline... you can really see powerful vort max over eastern ohio, effectively tipping the entire baroclinic leaf that is evident in the sat dramatically n in the last 2-3 hours... but, even the 12Z guidance has Wilma maintaining a separate entity, not really actually getting all that absorbed into the cyclogenisis along the mid atlantic... (the latter would be impressive if that happened!) anyway, it's a eerie series of images in that loop, and if you didn't know the history and/or didn't have models to depend on - and only saw this - you'd be spooked!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: New warning? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63001 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:36 PM

Thought you all would enjoy reading this:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wilma.htm

Contains the typical "right stuff" level of understatement.

Well I'm not surprised about the Cat 3 level...she was still intensifying right up until landfall, and didn't seem to miss a beat while over land. As soon as I saw that I started wondering about the Bahamas. What is amazing is that if you look at the 1815Z wv image you can clearly make out the original 2 spiral bands she started with...that structure has stayed with the hurricane its entire life (yes I have a theory about the pieces of identity that hurricanes carry with them).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Oct 24 2005 02:47 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: And the beat goes on dum dum dum..Super Storm NorEaster forming... [Re: NorEaster]
      #63002 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:46 PM

Quote:

Accuweather has been predicting this for the past week, but I wanted to wait for my NWS folks to confirm anything before I started to take notice.

As soon as I saw this..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

I knew the established meteorolgists were now on board.

Here is the scenario according to Accuweather...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp

To further track the storm I'm going with the following page...

http://wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

A couple more links of interest...

http://www.foxphiladelphia.com/weather/

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9




Yes...the possibilities abound.... the models have been flip-flopping with the successful marriage of the two systems near the Mid-Atlantic for days (over a week at this point) and HankFrank and I have been hammering this out in our discussions off and on during the course. Accuweather does a good job - I've just notice they have a tempo shift to 'chance taking' as of late. Not sure what the deal with that is, but they certainly do make some bold assertions/predictions recently - and quite honestly, it has paid off concerning Katrina and Rita...

Anyway, there's nothing really new about this - though it is nice to see some else on her finally bringing it up - THANKS. Anyway, right now the models (especially the GFS) actually whip Wilma into the graveyard as a distinguishable dying entity, while steadily deepening the extra-trapical Nor'easter... In other words, not really phasing the two vorticity fields as effectively as say ....the Perfect Storm did... Let's face it; that's essentially what is going on here, which the Perfect Storm scenario serves as more than a loose analogy for..

I'm currently glued to the atmospheric behavior on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html (as I just mentioned in another post) because the contruct is certainly there; one that hints that the global based models may be having difficulty resolving the union between a pure barotropic and a pure baroclinic system - should that be the case, and are thus opting to do what it is they are doing.. I've been hearing a lot of information from offices that sounds like "...Wilma will transition into ...this or that"; but the strictest interpretation of the 12Z guidance is not really like that... They really squirt her and her remains out ahead of the extra-trapical baroclinicity - too far gone to be really suggestive that the Nor'easter in question is really Wilma incarnate..

Yeah yeah...it's complex.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: New warning? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63003 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:49 PM

I don't mean to give NHC any grief about it... trying to estimate the maximum sustained wind in a hurricane is an inexact science as it is and there were no planes in the storm during the time it was over land. Any cat 3 winds over the peninsula likely would have occurred in unpopulated areas of the Everglades. I don't think it is any stronger now than it was when it emerged into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts as a tropical cyclone... the eye is ragged, but the convective pattern still does not show signs of being excessively sheared. It is interesting that the deepest convection has consistently been on the south and west sides of the system since last evening... you might expect the opposite considering that the storm is getting sheared from that direction.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: New warning? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63004 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:57 PM

Not surprising; I thought the pattern would remain asymmetrical this long.

Sorry I can't post an explanation now because I'm at work (and probably should just simply not be reading this if I can't resist posting!), but I'll pm you tonight.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: New warning? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63005 - Mon Oct 24 2005 02:58 PM

Quote:

I don't mean to give NHC any grief about it... trying to estimate the maximum sustained wind in a hurricane is an inexact science as it is and there were no planes in the storm during the time it was over land. Any cat 3 winds over the peninsula likely would have occurred in unpopulated areas of the Everglades. I don't think it is any stronger now than it was when it emerged into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts as a tropical cyclone... the eye is ragged, but the convective pattern still does not show signs of being excessively sheared. It is interesting that the deepest convection has consistently been on the south and west sides of the system since last evening... you might expect the opposite considering that the storm is getting sheared from that direction.




right - and par for the course...it was moving so fast anyway - across in what 2.2 hours or something... - that it couldn't have weakened all that much...


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Tale of two seasons... [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63006 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:05 PM

http://www.intellicast.com ....and click on radar...
...It really is neat to see snow in SE west va and a hurricane right off the se u.s. coast!


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laureg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 22
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
Re: New warning? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63007 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:09 PM

Wow, what a wild ride, we have no power but we've got a generator and dialup so here i am...it is so cold here now, must be 56? Hard to tell since being in FL anything below 70 feels like a blizzard. People really did not prepare enough for this one--when are we gonna learn? maybe 50 percent of my neighbors put up shutters. downtown WPB is a mess. Gusts had to have been about 90 for us at times...

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Lsr1166
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Tallahassee, Florida 30.39N 84.63W
Re: conditions [Re: Giggles9CC]
      #63008 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:10 PM

I work for Florida DOT in Tallahassee and below are some excerpts from the damage report we just got. Sorry if it is too long.


Naples Municipal (APF) - Substantial structural damage
Southwest Florida International (RSW) - Substantial structural damage
Miami International (MIA) - Some damage and loss of power

The below is reagrding the Turnpike...

Tractor Trailer rollover MP 13 SB. Left lane open. FHP notified TMC. Contacted Open Roads Recovery to respond under emergency contract. Open Road Recovery is enroute to scene.

Tractor Trailer rollover at the SB entrance ramp to the Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie service plaza. Traffic is able to drive around crash and enter service plaza.

Fort Pierce service station significantly damaged, out of service.

Multiple reports of light poles down near the Fort Pierce interchange.

450 MHz radio system (Wrecker, Road Ranger radio) not operational. This is hindering efforts between FHP, Road Rangers and TMC.

Pompano service station reporting two tractor trailers blown over within Pompano Service Plaza parking lot. One minor injury, fuel leaking from one tractor. FHP has been made aware, but not able to respond due to weather conditions.

Snapper Creek service station has turned off pumps due to debris and portable VMS board being blown towards pump islands.

Lift station at milepost 71 and Sawgrass automated report - no electricity.

Lift station at milepost 65 automated report - no electricity.

Sunshine Skyway Bridge was closed to vehicles between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m., now reopened.

West Palm Beach Restaurant closed due to significant roof damage.

Snapper Creek, Pompano and West Palm Beach service stations closed to business until post-storm.

Pompano service plaza stopping restaurant service until post-storm.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: New warning? [Re: laureg]
      #63009 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:16 PM

Quote:

Wow, what a wild ride, we have no power but we've got a generator and dialup so here i am...it is so cold here now, must be 56? Hard to tell since being in FL anything below 70 feels like a blizzard. People really did not prepare enough for this one--when are we gonna learn? maybe 50 percent of my neighbors put up shutters. downtown WPB is a mess. Gusts had to have been about 90 for us at times...




Congrats! You made it in one piece... Things will definitely be calming down very quickly in the next couple of hours as her outer most circulation edge is moving NE at fantastic speeds...

Some in your area said that the wind calmed down a little, but then curiously got strong again when the sun came out... This is expected... The sun heated the surface a little and caused and expansion of the mixing layer, which mixed the momentum of the gradient level down... If this happened in your area, it won't last much longer because even the gradient level winds are fast decreasing in velocity as Wilma screams away...


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: New warning? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63010 - Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 PM

You may find this interesting because the recent "apparent" intensity gaining has NHC scratching their heads exactly the way you and I just were! ....I guess no one knows...

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY FOR Wilma. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D
RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW
ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE.
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO
REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER
WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER
REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF
STREAM. BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE. THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE.
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


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