typhoon_tip
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a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
that's unusual...to have even modest strengthening while moving at 37mph of translational velocity!
The shocking thing is that there is still some anticyclonic outflow on the backside of the system as it is getting pushed along at a high rate of speed.
It's a little diconcerting to see some of those near shore rad returns indicating the precipitation shield moving NNW, off the Atlantic Ocean up here; which is all underscored by having a -3.5SD negative anomaly rotating around eastern Ohio, while a hurricane is dubously situated in a narrow window of escape capability with respect to the intensifying baroclinic field along and just off shore... Man, if your just tuning in now your thinking this is the mother of all set-ups... BUT, the models insist, they will by in large remain to cohesive circulation entities as rockets by just off SE New England, while extra-tropical low just barely can't quite get the muscle to slow it down and hook NW into the mother of all phases?
Models can be wrong and am almost wondering if this will be a now-cast event for New England... This is just came out of NWS Taunton and you may find it quite interesting:
M1 437 PM: INTERNALLY SOME OF OUR FOLKS HAVE DETECTED A MODELED
GRAVITY WAVE PASSAGE IN THE SUSBMM5 PROGGED MOVING ENE ALOGN THE
SNE COAST 09Z-15Z TUE. IF THIS IS REAL...ITS GOING TO BE A A MODEL
COUP. ITS IN THE 4KM SUYSBMM5 SFC PRES AND 10 M WIND FIELD.
Time will tell...but either way, this going to be a heck of an indirect attack by this thing up here...
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....
Edited by bn765 (Mon Oct 24 2005 09:16 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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So... 40 ft seas forecast S and E of Nantucket, 1-5" of rain in E Mass, and 7"+ of snow forecast only 100 miles northwest of there. What a monsta!! Not a great day to go fishin'. It's almost leaf-raking time, but I'm not much into tree-raking. BTW, the mets here are predicting a "gravity wave" tomorow morning to enhance the rain along the south coast in association with all the transferred energy from (I think)... anyone care to educate me on what that is?
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This is bad news for the east coast.....for the northeast they are already calling this the "superstorm" of 2005 which is supposed to hit the whole northeast tommorrow.
Well, not to be too cynical, but this year we've already had two or three "superstorm of 2005"s...even here with no tropical systems... rough weather seems to be fairly common around here these days...but yeah, be careful everyone.
I know your post is to someone else originally but this usage of the term "Superstorm", it's like using "love" to liberally if you ask me: It gets warn out and demeaning with abuse. I think they should really reserve such powerful terminology until such times as the actual impact can be defined as being a ...certain level above merely being a big storm.
To me, "1978 Cleveland Bomb", "The Blizzard of 1978", or "Superstorm 1993", these are all vastly more appropriate for that term because they carried statistical results that far surpass anything before or since... Maybe there needs to be an official declaration of parameters for the usage of that term because Superstorm has a way of fostering unnecessary panic; and quite frankly, I'm sensing it is used to garner viewer-ship in a era controled by the corporate media meets natural disaster popularity.
What should take place along the NE U.S. Coastline tomorrow will likely be ferocious, no doubt! But comparable to other major events in the passed - unlikely.
Oh, and I apologies if it sounds like the tone of my posts are wavering...They're really not. We can have a stemwinder storm up here tomorrow and it doesn't have to be a "Super" this or that - that's my point. Which, for the record, also is NOT intended to presuppose the the possibility that it could actually end up a Superstorm, but if it did, we'd really know about it!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 24 2005 09:51 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Alpha seems to be making a last gasp, with some slightly improving convection near the center and a single weak convective band feeding into the system. They haven't issued any new advisories for it, so I assume its status as a tropical cyclone is officially over with.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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There will definitely be an intense coastal storm, though it appears that it will only be marginally aided by any effect from , which is expected to pass well offshore. While it could exacerbate flooding problems in New England, it doesn't figure to be a historically significant coastal storm unless becomes much more involved than expected.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Any damage reports of the main library, downtown Ft. Laud? It's all glass and it leaked already.
Damage reports are really slow, even on AP.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Hi everyone. I just wanted to say that I made it through the storm okay, with minimal damage (missing shingles, tree limbs down.) When the first eyewall came on shore, things picked up, but when the back eyewall came on, all h*ll broke loose. The winds gusted to incredible strength. I could hear things hitting my hurricane shutters, and I was very freaked out by it all. I lost my power around 9:00 this morning, and am pleasantly surprised to have it back on so early.
Thank you again to everyone on this site for all your hard work and for keeping us all informed.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Here in Orlando, we went from "full" tropical to "full" fall in less than eight hours...what a great day!!!...see ya'll next season???...<hoping>
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: apopka
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wave heights got up to 37 feet 120 miles east of port canaveral. 20 miles out got up to 20 feet.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....
...What you got here is a Nor'easter that "might" avail of some extra latent heat injection by transitting tropical event... Taking a look at the 18Z , the voriticity fields are completely conserved and disparate features... In fact, 24-36 hours from now, a remnant vort max (the remains of ) is moving E about 200naut mi SE of Nova Scotia at about 50mph! Meanwhile, the cut-off U/A low and associated coastal cyclogenisis (tomorrow's New England Nor'easter) is doing it's thing, blithely unaware that was ever an interloper in it's backyard. In other words, any interaction between these two features is indirect at very deepest...
Sad part is...there's enough seeds planted in the minds of the public that there will undoubtedly be people who log this in their memories as a "Nor'easter mixed with a hurricane" - uuugh!
Fact of the matter is, we get 55kt wind gust whenever we have a 1034mb high park N of Maine while a 30vort max rides NE up the coast.
As a fan of all dramatic weather and fascinated with blizzards, I just hope this upcoming winter doesn't poop out and not do anything like this when there's finally enough cold air around to bring the current VT predictions for a foot of snow down to the coast... Just imagine 50kt wind gusts in snow falling at the rate of 3" an hour... ? Amazing stuff!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 24 2005 10:27 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Thanks for the information.
So many family and friends affected by the hurricanes this year.
I hope everyone gets power soon but at least heat isn't a factor. After the temperature was around 100 for days (heat index
up to 120). So at least it is cooler there.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Typhoon - I have a Grandad in Connecticut, Hartford area to be exact. They got lashed with a bunch of rain from that low that parked itself off the Jersey/Long Island coast a week ago or more. That alone drenched the whole area and they had some serious flooding, including a river right near his house. I saw a map with a low pressure area off the coast again, except a little closer to the CT coast. What impact, if any, will or the former have on his area? I am a bit worried about him. Thanks and thanks for the good information you provided before, during and after .
--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Typhoon - I have a Grandad in Connecticut, Hartford area to be exact. They got lashed with a bunch of rain from that low that parked itself off the Jersey/Long Island coast a week ago or more. That alone drenched the whole area and they had some serious flooding, including a river right near his house. I saw a map with a low pressure area off the coast again, except a little closer to the CT coast. What impact, if any, will or the former have on his area? I am a bit worried about him. Thanks and thanks for the good information you provided before, during and after .
Hi...Flooding is a very real concern and will be the main headline affect from this particular event. If he lives in a prone area he needs to be alert and pay attention to the local hydrology statements from the National Weather Service. Currently, a flood watch is in effect for most of the state of CT, save the immediate shore communities. The affects of early snows and strong winds on the coastal plain probably won't be as impactive to him locally, but the flood concern is quite large after the anomalous event earlier this month.
The following NWS office has very good, updated immediately when conditions warranted hydrological information:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/
Find any number of valuable flood information links on the left hand side.
...Needless to say, flood guidance is quite low right now and should this event max out, many areas that experienced flooding in the middle part of this month will likely experience renewed concerns. One cannot speculate on one creek or main stem river will overflow its banks, but, the CT River does tend to claim near bank realistate at the drop of a hat in these situations... You'll just have to study the information on the URL I provided you. In Flash Floods, the one's that survive have an escape plan that includes higher ground already laid out.
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Mako
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Possible modeling of a gravity wave on south new england coast. Anyone have any comment. This would be a rare event.
http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2005102412/images_d3/slp.24.0000.gif
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Nutmeg
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Loc: New England
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With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....
I hope "some mets" are only a minority. I just drove home from work listening to a lengthy and appropriately cautionary radio met out of NYC. And one of my colleagues up in MA has been quite attentive since early this morning...and so on.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Gravity waves are not necessarily rare events, but a successful prediction of one by a numerical model would be news.
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Ok, I have some background in physics.
I have never seen this term in the context of weather, "gravity wave"
Can anyone give me a reference or link?
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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723
URNT12 KNHC 242341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/23:30:00Z
B. 30 deg 00 min N
076 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1064 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 087 deg 065 kt
G. 360 deg 015 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 15 C/ 1531 m
J. 20 C/ 1519 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C65
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 2724A OB 29
MAX FL WIND 136 KT S QUAD 20:01:40 Z
WIND CENTER IMBEDDED ALONG NORTH WALL
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....
Sounds like the same complaint they have in the Southeast as well.
It's human nature. I do think will stay well off your shores.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Wilma is such a clever girl...with a big bag of tricks. She knows how to deal with high wind shear -- outrun it, and let it enhance your outflow! And since leaving the east coast of FL, she's developed a huge feeder band pulling warm moist air from the Gulf Stream. That, with her "good bones" -- a solid core structure -- has enabled her to do what was not forecast: to continue to intensify back to Cat 3 and maintain it right up until this evening. She deserves her own video on VH1 (put to "Staying Alive" by the BeeGees), or a movie of her own ("The Storm That Wouldn't Shrivel Up and Die!").
I kind of did a double take upon getting home about a half hour ago and then looking at the sat images (why'd they move the floater so quickly?). Then had to go read the advis/disc to truly believe it.
But in the last hour or so, dry air has finally gotten into part of the core, and so begins 's transformation...which will take some time, as she still had a 5-deg temp diff at the last recon! We'll see warm-hearted for just a little while longer. 
* * * * * * *
OK -- I spoke too soon -- she's rushing to rebuild the convection in the eyewall and keep out that drafty air. She's done that so many times she's become a real expert at it. So until she runs out of warm water to draw from, I guess she'll maintain her warm inner core. Next card she's decided to play: shrink the size of the eye.
How far north can the Gulf Stream feed and maintain a warm-core tropical cyclone, other conditions being favorable?
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2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are)
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