MikeC
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5 AM Update
Furthering the history making 2005 season, Tropical Storm Beta has formed in the SW Caribbean. Beta is moving toward the NW near 5mph. Maximum winds are near 40 mph. Estimated minimum pressure is 1005mb. Beta is currently forecast to become a Hurricane just prior to landfall on the Nicaraguan Coast.
Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com
12AM Update
90L has been officially declared Tropical Depression 26.
Currently, 11PM Advisory, TD 26 is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (Beta) before reaching the Coast of Nicaragua.
4PM Update
We've got two systems post we're watching, one in the Southwestern Caribbean (aka 90L) and another east of the Leeward islands. Both have the potential to develop over the next several days. I'd prefer it to be totally quiet, but the tropics aren't cooperating.
The one in the southwest caribbean is likely to drift slowly northwestward over time.
Chances for tropical development of the wave in the Southwest Caribbean (90L) in the next two days:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------------*--------]
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance East of the Leeward Islands in the next two days:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]
Further east is yet another wave, but it is very disorganized at the moment.
Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Beta
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image
91L
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image
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damejune2
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How about the chances of 90 or 91 hitting the US as in Fla or the Gulf Coast? Just curious as to people's thoughts on that.
slim. pattern favors low latitude recurvature for anything that tries to come north. southern florida if anything, but probably not. these puppies have to develop before they can do anything... 90L has made some progress, but 91L is just a wave.
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 26 2005 09:19 PM)
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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As if it's not obvious, southern FL can't take much rain right now... people have roof damage. There is no power and no gas. I just left the Margate / Coral Springs area and drove up to central FL for awhile to avoid the mess.
Here are some pictures I took during/after , sorry for crappy web page design but I didn't have much software to work with...
http://home.mindspring.com/~jntmoore/wilma/
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Thunderbird12
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Chances are slim right now that either of them would affect Florida, based on the uncertainties in their track and development. 90L will have a hard time getting north of Honduras without going inland, so 91L may post the slightly greater chance, though it is not even a tropical cyclone right now and there is no guarantee it ever will be. If it does develop, it looks like it will spend a few days in the Caribbean in a relatively favorable environment.
90L seems to be redeveloping convection near its center right now. It looks awfully close to becoming a depression, though it appears will wait to pull the trigger until at least tonight. A more consolidated ball of convection has developed within 91L, but it is tough to tell if that is associated with any sort of surface center or not.
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Thunderbird12
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.
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rd261
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God this is just crazy. I live in north miami-dade, and the situation here is just crazy. More than a million people dont have electricity, no gas, and traffic lights are out. I just got the electricity back, but the FPL is saying that 50% of the people in Miami-Dade would have power back by November 8. So I guess Im lucky. Anyways I hope none of those waves come to South Florida, because if they do, then it would be a real mess down here.
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Thunderbird12
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In the unlikely event that either of these systems affect Florida, it would not be for several days at least.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.
frankly....i've seen them initiate advisories on even more paltry looking features in the past... since none of this was based on recon fixes, one may be thus inclined to question the reality of this situation... my personal belief is that this is a depression now.. it has a closed circulation, obvious banding on sat in several channels, and convective elements near the core - whether cyclical in nature or not. it also has a registerably lower pressure than the surrounding environment - though the favorability for development is not (as far as I know) an official criteria but heck....might as well through it in there that it has very good outflow signatures...
...i dunno...maybe someone just needs more time off...
of course...in their defense they do reserve the right to initiate advisories "..AT ANYTIME"...
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 09:49 PM)
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Margie
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The larger view on sat (the western Carib and the EastPac, instead of the floater) shows how quickly 90L is getting organized, and also shows the bands on the Pacific side.
Convection now firing off very close to the center for several hours now. There appears to be a very small area close to the center with no shear, but right outside of that area, at least 10kts shear. However the shear just south of the center convection, that is towards the south, is where some outflow has been established for awhile (also the outflow off to the east from the large band to the north of the center, has established itself much more than yesterday).
With the current steering pattern this is only going to take a western turn right into Central America. But I'm wondering if it does, if it will redevelop on the Pacific side, where the shear is minimal and the water very warm.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
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Looks an awful lot like the Bay of Campeche systems that we've seen this year, doesn't it? The actual LLC is just north of the Panamanian coastline and not too far from Nicaragua. Current steering pattern would tend to favor keeping it pretty much where it is, steered only by Beta drift (weak as it may be for such a small, low-latitude storm) and any sort of reorganization due to convective features. A trough off to the west of the storm isn't strong enough to hinder development or allow it to get caught up in the midst of the flow toward the NE -- not yet, at least -- while it is pretty much planted directly underneath a small-scalre upper level ridge. Creates a pretty favorable environment for development but doesn't foretell a lot of movement.
Best call is for a slow drift to the NW over the next couple of days; how strong it is then will play a role in whether or not it continues across central America or remains off-shore and ultimately recurves. As noted yesterday, it's one of those divergent solutions -- either across and toward the Pacific, or up and out to sea likely through Cuba and the Bahamas. Given current organizational trends, it'll probably get classified as our 26th depression tonight or early tomorrow and likely end up as Beta before too long. Biggest hindrance to development is going to be whether or not it gets closer to/moves over land. If so, it'll likely end up like the Bay of Campeche disturbances; if not, it's got a shot at something a little more, a la Stan. One to watch.
Wave near the Lesser Antilles has a shot, but needs to slow down first and become better organized. Largely just a mess of convection right now, but conditions should become a bit more favorable over the next day or two. As HF mentioned in the other thread, it'll likely end up relatively close to 90L/future Beta? at some point, making the ultimate forecast for both just a tad bit trickier. Not a sure bet to develop in the least, but worth watching.
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typhoon_tip
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i dunno... we've been surprised this season (what's new) with track guidance vs. verification.. all signals point to what you say for now, but i see the potenial for a couple of perturbational effects.
1) ...a deeper more powerful system would tend to fight off feeble steering flow - which in the llv's is currently ese to wnw at light speeds, in that area, and is what 90l is susceptible to right now.. however, should "beta" go ahead a deepen and gather a better vertical structure quicklly over the next 24 hours, we're liable to be stuck with a stationary system because the 700 through 500mb mean layer flow is like...5kts across most operational global models for the next few days. even though some of the guidance suggests a short lease on life do to interaction with land, those depictions are dubious to me until the extent of development, and how that intensity profile interacts with the surrounding environment can be cogently ascertained.
2) so...with deeper layer steering in that area currently almost none-existent...it is also unclear how much a couple of troughs subtending the height field in the northern gulf can have on inducing a pull toward the north, given that any beta is at such a deep latitude is so far down there. now through 72 hours a trough in eastern n/a is going to complete a final s/w sweep. the h582 contour is actually sagging all the way down to the norther yuc peninsula; the gradient is weak and so the winds are light along the heights in that area...after that, it seems hard to imagine this thing getting a n pull with any speed.. heights tend to rise then fall gently between 72 and 132 hours (average model concensus)... this would be the best opportunity to drive it w into/over land, but even this signal is not that impressive and really the models show very little affect on the wind field - in other words, almost too weak to push it w.. what the models also agree on is that by 144 hours there is a substantial vort max (for latitude) approaching the nw gulf, and this may be substantial enough to pick up beta if it is still around then.. a track thereafter would favor a lower latitude recurvature, unless that trough is more amplified... frankly, i don't see that happening because some of the indices i like to rely on are actually suggesting we'll lose some amplification in the flow - but even that is uncertain because these things can sometime appear and dissappear in the guidance almost as quickly, sending everyone spinning on a fool's errand.
so yes and no...may just end up too far underneath the westerlies - a.k.a. "mitch"?
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 26 2005 11:02 PM)
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danielw
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Wow. The evening Meteorological Discussion all on the First Page. Can't beat that Anywhere.
well, i'm sure if we could get some guys around a table discussing things with the gloves off, that would have our heads spinning. but yeah, between clark and tip, and jason and dunham whenever they show, we get the scoop.
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Oct 27 2005 01:32 AM)
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Margie
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Well you guys are the experts, but don't you think it is *too far south* to possibly end up in the ATL? Wouldn't a divergent path to the NE predicate a lot of drifting to a more northern lat first?
It looks like Margie has the winning signature for the 2005 Hurricane Season.~danielw
2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are)
I didn't think anyone was going to notice it! If you can think of anything better, be my guest, but with Phil OOC and Nov almost here, I thought I better come up with something soon (esp since I'm a lot better with writing than forecasting, so far!...someone just whispered in 90L's ear and told it to move north in response to my comment)
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 27 2005 01:19 AM)
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Thunderbird12
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A new SHIPS run just came out for Tropical Depression #26 (90L), so looks like has pulled the trigger, though they probably won't initiate advisories until the usual 11pm ET:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
Navy site just updated for 26L NONAME. Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Thu Oct 27 2005 01:19 AM)
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danielw
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
edited~danielw
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR THE WAVE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.
W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY. UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/261758.shtml?
Afternoon-Caribbean Forecast Discussion here.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 27 2005 01:22 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.
I thought so too until I went back and counted:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/
Here is some silliness to consider: If we get Beta out of this, as seems likely, then I don't feel comfortable referring to Beta as an "it." To me, Beta seems like a guy. One the other hand Delta (well, it doesn't seem so farfetched we could get to Delta), seems like a gal to me, and Gamma, another guy. Don't you just hate the entire Greek name thing? It's not like we would ever run out of real names.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Oct 27 2005 01:33 AM)
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recmod
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NRL Navy Site now has 90L listed as Tropical Depression # 26 at 11.0N, 81.6W with 35mph winds....
--Lou
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GuppieGrouper
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Please forgive me for asking this, I simply can not resist it. Delete me and take away my posting privileges if you must but,
IS IT GOING TO HIT TAMPA? I hope so, then we can get over ourselves once and for all. This is from some one who has had enough hurricane tracking for this year and next. By the way would some one please shut the door on the way out of the refridgerator. Brrrr!
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
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I've been reading the AFDs from Mobile,AL to Key West, FL. Almost all of them mention the Caribbean system in some shape, form or fashion. A few with heavier wording than others. None, as of afternoon, took it to this level though.
This is the last paragraph in this Afternoon's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC in Maryland.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
149 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2005 - 12Z WED NOV 02 2005
(Valid from 7 AM Sat Oct 29 2005- 6AM Wed Nov 02 2005~danielw)
CDT ends during the period.
WRN CARIBBEAN...
THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS SYS MOVES INTO CNTRL AMERICA OR NOT EARLY IN THE PD. THE /NOGAPS MOVE IT INLAND...
AS DOES THE TPC TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...OLDER RUNS/ECMWF/UKMET/CAN/NOGAPS DRIFT IT NNWWD...AND HAVE CHANGED THE
TRACK TWDS THIS THINKING SINCE IT IS ALREADY PASSING THE 81ST MERIDIAN...WHICH MOVES THE SYS ACRS NERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ON
DAYS 4-6 /SUN-TUE AM/.
SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/
DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC REGARDING THE SHORT TERM PROSPECTS OF THIS SYS.
ROTH
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HanKFranK
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folks in the westpac would have to wonder what we're complaining about. they're getting a slacker season over there in terms of totals, probably because the atlantic is more aggressive in serving as a pathway for all that tropical moisture.
they ought to post-analyze the depression back to earlier today when the circulation became apparent, but gut feeling is that the best track will start at 00Z/27 at the end of the season.
pretty straightforward forecast from me for it... slow wnw/nw movement, slow intensification until a core becomes established. track is going to be a hell of a complicated one. the system is close enough to central america to be held in check to a degree and result in an asymmetric wind field if it expands any. the impulse coming in from the west will likely start tugging it opposite the weak steering flow, so if the other one becomes established there's the chance it'll stall offshore or even drift back to the east.
the 'other one', 91L, has about the prospects that alpha did a week ago. it'll be in a stronger steering environment and will get handed off to the westerlies near the windward passage, if it develops. it's a day and a half from classification at least... but by the weekend it too could be menacing the western caribbean.
even when both of these are out of the way, the subtropical ridge north of puerto rico is likely to remain in place. subsequent waves will have to be watched, as models continue to show low pressures in the western caribbean even after the systems are lost.
HF 0150z27october
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