Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Again ..... CUDOS to........ Mr. Ed Dunham. Great call Ed .... MAN I LOVE THIS SITE !!!!!!!!!! OOOOHHHHRAAAHHHH.!!!!!!!!!!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Thanks Rad - you just made my (busy) day! The Guys and Gals on this site are really what makes it great. Sometimes, and it doesn't happen too often, you make a remarkable forecast - and those are the ones that you remember - and I'll certainly remember Ana. Please keep this in mind when I really make a mess out of one later on in the season 
Meteorologically, Ana is quite an event - it is just as educationally important as a Hugo or an Andrew or a Mitch - maybe even more so. We understand very little about early season hybrid activity, but Ana gives us another rare opportunity to learn. A subtropical system pulls its energy from both the sea surface and the upper cold core but maybe its not the actual temperatures that matter but rather the temperature difference that matters and the instability that the differences create - someday maybe we'll find out.
And sometimes its just plain fun for me to watch Mother Nature at work and not always try to figure out 'why', and I'm sure that a lot of you probably feel the same.
Cheers,
ED
Ed Dunham
Chief Meteorologist
The Boeing Company
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Just looking at the latest available visible loop and Ana still continues to fire off some pretty decent convection. Due to the high shear this convection is located in the eastern semicircle, but still very near the centre of the storm. She continues to move east. I think it is still a fragile system, and if shear increases much more the storm will probable decouple and dissipate...
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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As a side note the latest data (1345 UTC) puts Ana at 45kts and 996 mb.... a drop in pressure of 6 mb in the past 18 - 24 hours...
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Ana is now a 45 kt / 50 mph Tropical Storm! No threat to land at present... and dashing my predictions of weakening too! She has persisted with a tight circulation and continuing convection despite the shear. Forecasts from shows no additional strengthening but does maintain her as a cyclone throughout the next 72 hours. Given her history Ana may still hold a few surprises up her sleeve, and i would not be surprised to see some further slight strengthening now. Only time will tell.
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Unbelievable....a TS in April....what will they think of next? A hurricane in May? I wonder if this is a sign of things to come this year. I gotta wake back up cause I wasn't even paying attention to the Atlantic till yesterday's early return from hibernation of the 's emails.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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What do ya'll make of the UK model projection? Could she really turn??
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Just shows that records are meant to be broken. They are not meant to last forever, history is current and constantly evolving, moment by moment, storm by storm.. season by season.
That is one of the things that I truely love about tracking hurricanes and weather, it is so intricately connected to history and magically current at the same time.
I am so excited over this that you can't all imagine. It's really big. Some people will and can poo poo it as some anomaly or explain how mariners traveling that realm of the Atlantic centuries ago never came across tropical storms in April but that some poor lost explorer probably was lost at sea in the relatively safe month of April and............and...........I don't want to hear it. We spend our lives with this hobby studying the statistics, the history of distant storms and all the bits and pieces of those odd storms adding up to their sum total of "climo" and now there is a new piece of the puzzle .. a new memory.
Sort of like when John Hope had to put a new dot on that very famous map that showed areas where storms had formed and suddenly there was Bertha and he had this partially annoyed look and sort of muffled smile ...cause there was a new dot where a dot had never been and life changed..it went on.. it continued and it became doable and discussable because Bertha had gotten on his map for storms that have formed in that region.. in that month.
And, now Ana has formed in the month of April.
A new memory we all share.
And, IF there was a map for the month of April it would no longer be a sea of empty blue with no graphics or names because it would have Ana on it.
I'm sure John Hope and Benjamin Franklin and David Ludlum are all sitting up in weather heaven with an amused smile on their faces too.
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Like that Post Lois!! That's the intriguing thing about weather. It shifts like the formation of a snowdrift, often similar but never the same. You can slice and dice the statistics all you want, find trends, but never the same thing. Each storm, each pattern has its own marking, and from every dot we make on a map its own unique set of circumstances that will always keep us guessing - will it do what we think???  Gonna be an interesting season, me thinks. Cheers!
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Agreed Steve... already is an interesting season 
cheers back at ya and lets get on with the show
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Mary Montana
Unregistered
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Wow! I wonder what the statistical chance of an April storm occuring, since we are five months from the main season. I can remember thinking a July storm was a phenomenon. Are we in El Nino this year? MM -
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J.J.
Unregistered
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I never thought I'd live to see such a thing...the last truly out-of-season storm occurred when I was five...and the last May storm when I was two. Really, this is amazing--back to the climatological drawing board! 
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Bill
Unregistered
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First ever April tropical storm- now, over the reporting period (at most a few hundred yrs, since sat about 40 yrs). EVERY month of the year has had at least a TROPICAL storm.
IHS,
Bill
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Bill
Unregistered
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GREAT POST Bobbi---with you 100%, could not have said it better.
IHS,
Bill
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Yeah. Great post Bobbi. Ironically I only figured out LoisCane the other day. Doh! I'm not sure how I missed it, but hey, I finally caught on.
Kevin,
You need to quit posting dead links. That's 2 out of your last 3 that I clicked on only to find "page not available" or "page doesn't exist." You're killing me.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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caneman
Unregistered
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I know Kevin busts your chops about the Aints already but gotta get my digs in too as I'm a Tampa boy. I'll take the Super Bowl over the regular season win any day.Looking forward to this season.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Sorry Steve, but the links that I posted above in earlier days have been taken off of our website's directory already. With the standard Geocities, you don't get a whole lot of room to keep files, so we won't keep the ones we don't need.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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it's all good caneman. But it was >two< regular season victories  .
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No problem Kevin. With the season started already I plan on checking in more frequently. Hopefully I can catch some of those links while they're still fresh.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Just thought i would post to let you all know that the Met. Office over here in the UK is warning of gales and heavy rains on Monday. The low pressure system bringing this is the remnant low from Ana, and is expected to track northeastwqard across the UK as a small but quite intense depression. I will be recording total rainfall as well as wind speeds (both average and gust), and will post them here later Monday or Tuesday after the system has passed.
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Robert
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 258
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Whats up evryone, ana was something. I was at the beach with 10-12 foot bombers surfing all week. Anyway it seems odd the wants to cause a low to form down by the bahamas on day 4 and start heading NE in day 5. There is also a weaker smaller low that will be ahead of it in the same track on tuesday morning. But it could be all hog wash. ill wait and see though.
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