Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I just checked the October summary for hurricanes at the ...it doesn't say anything about Cat 1:
Quote:
THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENED AS IT APPROACHED THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE ROMANO ON
24 OCTOBER WITH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING FLORIDA IN LESS THAN 5 HOURS.
WILMA MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE NORTH OF PALM BEACH AS A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. IT REGAINED CATEGORY 3 STATUS JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED THEREAFTER.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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The 00Z , UKM and are all picking up on some development in a few days. Any met comments on how likly that is?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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GFS is also showing something. It appears two locations have the potential of genisis: West Carribean and just east of Peurto Rico.
CMC is showing a system spinning off the tail of the cold front and forming off Peurto Rico. and UKM pick up on this some, but also form another low with circulation in the west Carribean. then forms something in the west Carribean.
I checked both low pressure and vorticity models - is the model showing the best organization to anything, but then models aren't really good when the system hasn't even formed yet.
We'll have to wait and see with this. We might have 0 systems, 1 system, or 2 systems within a few days.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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looks like some say "maybe"; some say "no". I just hope its a fish spinner.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The area in the SW Caribbean, while never developing, has never gone dormant, either, since Beta. There is still a lot of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave near Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and if conditions become more favorable for development, then that is a likely area. I am assuming the other likely area will be wherever the tropical wave that is currently in the eastern Caribbean is located at that future point in time.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The pattern is finally changing across the US, but it's not going to one to enhance the potential for tropical formation in our basin. It's that time of year where we get deep troughs entering the Gulf of Alaska, sitting and spinning for a couple of days, then moving SE toward British Columbia/Washington as much weaker systems. We tend to see a lot of cut-off lows near southern California in this type of regime: one forming, getting ejected into the midlatitude pattern again about 3-5 days later, and another one taking it's place. We've got a similar setup now, with a cut-off low that appears primed to eject into California off of the west coast right now.
In our basin, that's translating to a trough just off of the east coast with a reinforcing shortwave behind it. An upper-ridge, which previously was fairly stationary and better defined, is located near western Cuba. There's a lot of really dry air and mid-level shear associated with this wave, squelching any activity. Everything east of 50W is done; despite what we have seen this year so far, I am pretty confident in saying that we're not going to see anything out there for the rest of the season. The most favorable region right now is the extreme SW Caribbean just north of Panama, where Beta formed, but this favorable region is confined so close to land that it's going to take the ridge sliding a bit back toward the north and a shortwave north of Puerto Rico lifting out to get something going.
Potential for a hybrid or subtropical-tropical conversion system always needs to be watched this time of year, but we're probably quiet for at least another 3 days overall...and potentially longer. Models are picking up on something in the Caribbean later on into the weekend, but all of them have it at the end of/connecting with a frontal boundary in the central Caribbean except for the . Not sold on the tropical nature/organization of what may form yet, nor am I sold on something actually getting going there. Nevertheless, it is still the 2005 hurricane season...if we thought anything could happen last year, we've really seen that this year.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there hasn't been great model consistency over the past few days as to what's going to happen in the caribbean next week, but they're getting a bit more persistent. and have a low pressure forming between panama/colombia and jamaica with a weaker low near the ne caribbean (nogaps takes it ne, then cuts it off like a hybrid storm), ukmet has a big broad low in the central caribbean.. and the canadian has a pokey little hybrid to the east sort of like .
the 200mb winds on are what's got my interest more piqued than before. they are showing upper ridging in the western caribbean as next week wears on. if that is the case and there's the kind of convergence the models are indicating at the surface, something will be up. the feature to the east looks less likely, as it is shown getting carried up into the kind of shear that would shred it. noteworthy that the has no subtropical ridge above it, just a westerly 500mb jet. the prog it gives is a meandering low pressure/tropical cyclone that is still in the caribbean around thanksgiving. i'm thinking that if a real system existed, it would track something more along the lines of lenny in 1999 or odette in 2003.
checked some joe b comments, and he thinks something is up. the disturbed weather around panama has been inching a little poleward, so keep an eye on the area during the weekend.
later all.
HF 1820z10november
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I guess the agrees; something may be a foot?
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PANAMA AND THE
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NHC, et al only report on systems that are actively forming. Models detect things before they form. Of course those of us here will talk about what the models show reguardless of what , et al are saying!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It is 's and Accuweather's job to forecast what weather will impact the United States (and, to a lesser degree, other areas of the world) in the next few days. It is the 's job to forecast the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days and then to forecast the strength/track of a system once it has formed. They are watching everything we are -- and much, much more -- but it does not get disseminated in some product to the public because no such product exists. There's no reason for it to be, either -- there's nothing out there of immediate concern. Rest assured that they are watching the tropics more closely than we are on a day-to-day basis.
right--their job, my hobby. unless you guys want to start paying me to post here. or to not post here.... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Nov 10 2005 08:16 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Right as of this evening, conditions don't look as good as they did a week ago when a LLC formed, but was then mashed into the S Nic coast before it could develop any lasting convection. But clearly shear has reduced right in that little notch north of western Panama, even if the shear analysis doesn't quite show it. And according to the cimss product, vorticity there is definitely better than a week ago, on both coastlines.
Well, perhaps another interesting week ahead, but definitely nothing to be thrilled about if you happen to be in Nicaragua. I think the same thing will occur as last week, even if there is some development right there in the next couple days: it'll be ashore before it really can get going. And if something develops there in the EastPac, it'll be heading out to sea.
* * * * * *
Hey, look...I just sat down at the computer after getting home and eating a dinner, and checked out the floater, and gee, things are starting to cook down there in the SW Caribbean. I think I even see some circulation at about 9.5N 81W, right in the niche where I noticed there isn't that much shear (it looks like there is some, but nothing compared to what is surrounding it). That shear will aid outflow. Something to watch this evng.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Nov 10 2005 08:15 PM)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NHC is saying the system is nearly stationary but has a chance to slowly develop. Could be another Beta...barely moving but growing ever more organized every day.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well I don't see another Beta, however that circ that moved offshore into the EastPac has been spinning like a little top, with convection popping up, all afternoon, just SW of the western coast of Panama, and I don't understand why that hasn't been classified as something. Am I just seeing an optical illusion.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thats a meso convective system core. it probably has a little turning at the surface, but it doesn't have the organized convection of a tropical cyclone. very low latitude and marginal environmental conditions, so i doubt it will do much. stuff generally doesn't form that close to central america on the pacific side.
the features of interest on the atlantic side, if they do anything, will develop very slowly... almost like geologic time. the models are divergent again about what's what and where. has pretty much lost interest in an organized system in its recent runs, and now just shows a general region of disturbed weather in the caribbean. haven't seen the 12Z on anything else, but was favoring a system north of panama, and the canadian has a spurious looking system in the eastern caribbean that develops quickly and charges into heavy shear. euro is still showing generalized low pressure but no tropical cyclone.. while hpc's prog shows a tropical low in the western caribbean (this is nearly 24hrs old, though).
at the surface the weather near panama looks nowhere near organization, though the environmental conditions are such that something could fester there, and slowly develop once the ridging that models have been predicting in the western caribbean for days starts to pump up early next week.
to the east, near 10/56 there's actually a fairly impressive blow up along a wave, under light westerly shear. the wind field is curled around but not closed off. very hostile conditions to the north... but if it hangs out at the latitude it's at and moves slowly, that will be something worth watching. the globals have been suggesting two foci (not with great consistency) at either end of the caribbean for low pressure going into next week... that eastern deal was the one i doubted and it actually looks further along than panama right now.
bottom line: there's been enough model rumbling to suggest something may happen this week, joe b is clucking about it, and the synoptic pattern will at least allow disturbed weather to fester in the caribbean. whether we get a tropical cyclone (or in an insane situation two) out of all this is still 2-5 days out. i would rate the chances at this point as moderate.
HF 1658z12november
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Navy has just listed as 93L , not sure if this low will make much of a system, models tend to run the low into Central America as a 50 to 60 mph system maybe.. Time will tell.
Dave
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Initial plots are up on South Florida Water Management site showing what, if anything, develops heading into Central America per Old Sailor's comments.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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What would you rate the chances of any systems heading towards the US; like Fla, Ala, Miss, etc...??
extremely low. it's hard to get a system up this far north so late in the season, the waters in the northern gulf are below threshold (though they're still good east of florida), and you need a really amplified trough west/ridge east setup. still way too zonal for that, and the upcoming pattern supports lower than normal heights in the east. probably no dice. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 12:13 AM)
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