damejune2
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I'm thinking 93L is too close to land and the other system to develop and TD27 will most likely survive the shear; and why? History. All season long these storms have done some weird things. Look at it - a storm hit Portugal, we are in the greek alphabet, we had some major storms hit all over the gulf coast and caribbean. I'd say history is going to be on TD27's side and it's going to survive the shear and probably max out as a cat 2 or 3 by next week some where near Cuba. The front coming through later this week will turn the system more N then NE, after which it will most likely weaken due to shear, lower water temps and the collision with the front. Just my take on it.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Lee-Delray
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How do you get a cat 2 or 3 over Cuba? Everything I see and read said maybe a cat 1 then possibly turn N and/or NE and peter out . I do agree over Cuba and Bahamas but maybe as a tropical storm (if that) moving very, very quickly.
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Lysis
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How do you get a cat 2 or 3 over Cuba?
I think he is referencing the which has been very ‘bullish’, as they say. Physically speaking, the water is plenty warm, and once the ridge builds over it really has no reason not to deepen. Of course, the system looks really crappy right now, so we shall see. I really hope they don't issue the last advisory, only to have to re-issue it or make up a new cyclone alltogether.
Among other scenarios, climatology favors a sharply recurving storm passing through cuba (although above mentioned model tangles it up into central america). Granted “near Cuba” is a bit of a shoe in, as the Northwest Caribbean isn’t that large to begin with. I like Hank’s 1932 analogue, although it would be neat to see it get into the gulf.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Nov 15 2005 10:24 PM)
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Lee-Delray
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If it goes into the Gulf, doesn't that put a bullseye on your back? 
I think if it goes NE and crosses Cuba, the westerlies will rip it apart. There is still a good chance it will interact with Central America before it turns, which I would think weaken it some more. Also, if it follows a frontal boundry it will be "smokin".
Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Nov 15 2005 10:37 PM)
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HanKFranK
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okay, looks like i'm going to get my sw caribbean feature. and 27 shouldn't be able to stop it, which i was wrong about the other day. it's becoming too well-defined. no classification on it but i'd guess it's a 1.5. you can SEE the low cloud motions swirling around it's broad center.. the little feature that cycloidally looped off the nw colombia coast the other day appears to be what this thing is focusing around. appears to be moving slowly... as all that anticyclonic ridging aloft evacuates thunderstorms and causes pressures to fall dynamically.. it should tighten up and become a classified system tomorrow. as it becomes a defined system it should begin to move westward... and end up moving ashore in nicaragua later on thursday i'm guessing. it's very broad, so it might still be acting up on the pacific side.
to the east TD 27 is getting under progressively less shear. its proximity to the developing system to the west should make continued development slow. the recon mission today found 41kt flight level winds, which usually equates to a tropical storm.. but they've gone on the side of conservatism. center is poorly defined, partially due to its speed. the strong easterly flow to the north is pushing it right along, but even so shear is decreasing and the center seems to be clinging to and refiring convection to the east. ssd has rated it a 2.5 tropical storm for three consecutive cycles... collectively the evidence for upgrading it seems to be there. the convective signature should become much clearer some time overnight, even though the advisories have mentioned it 'needing to survive the next 24 hours shear' in every one of the recent advisories. the upper cloud motions and rate of shear reduction suggest to me that it'll fnally get through pretty soon, as well as the termination of the westerly 200mb vectors just beyond its location. another recon should be in tonight, so we'll know one way or another. as it goes further west it should still develop more or less along the lines of the earlier idea... perhaps a little less so, due to competition with the other system. the other system should cross central america, however, while 27 should get hung up by height falls to the nw, giving it an eventually different fate. the global consensus in the long term turns it ne after a stall, kinda like what i was thinking... only the tracks have now shifted further south, closer to eastern cuba. looks about right.
in the middle to long term, other things are showing up. the deep layer system forecast to dig in northeast of the caribbean has a non-development profile in the models, but only a little change and the potential exists for a drill-down. around ten days out, with a deep trough in the east, a block near greenland, and a corresponding deep layer system in the eastern atlantic from the strong nao-negative configuration... whatever is cut off over there may also make a run at hybrid development. the shear profiles from the extremely amplified pattern could potentially support such an outcome.
i'll throw in that the current severe weather tonight appears to be right on with bastardi's forecast step-down to cold pattern. the models are showing more cold air and a deep trough in the east next week...as a matter of fact the euro and are showing systems that could produce winter weather around thanksgiving in parts of the southeast. needless to say i'm interested. the models haven't converged yet on particular shortwave features, but the basic pattern setup appears to be coming together. climatological fall is going out with a bang around here, looks like. something has to balance all that activity in the tropics.
HF 2355z15november
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 16 2005 02:12 AM)
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ltpat228
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HankFrank?
Could you spit out what you last wrote in layman's terms?
I.E...we got another here?
there's a lot going on for november. earlier posts i talked about the threat to the u.s.... i don't see it. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Nov 16 2005 02:09 AM)
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Lee-Delray
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I think what he is saying that if and when Gamma forms and if and when it goes NE it will do so further south than over eastern Cuba then out to sea.
Sorry if I'm wrong Hank
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HanKFranK
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checked the thermal and shortwave IR. TD 27 is starting to really lose definition. there's still a band on the southern side, but the easterly jet to the north seems to have elongated and unwound the circulation. won't know for sure until recon gets there, but it probably isn't closed. folks calling for 27 to bite the dust may get their call right, if a little late. with the developing system to the west it'll be tough for the vorticity associated with 27 to redevelop a closed surface low if it's competing like that. too fast a flow at the low levels can be worse than too fast a flow aloft.
HF 0230z16november
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Toto
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Hey all-
I'm in the Cayman Islands, and was wondering what the models are saying about a possible northward turn around sunday- i know it's still quite early, but anything I might be concerned over? cheers!
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HanKFranK
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dunno quite what you're gonna be dealing with. it looks like a system is forming east of nicaragua and heading that way. appears to be an early type cluster developing near its center at this hour.
east of there TD 27's center is apparent now maybe 2 degrees ahead of its convective cluster. thing is, the mid level vortmax seems to be trailing and a new low may be forming south of there, closer to the venezuelan coast. i'm not sure quite how this will evolve. it may be a goner or it may be pulling a fast one.
personally i'd bet that any storms that develop will stay east of your position. only has it coming that far north/west. the rest are mostly more towards jamaica, with the caymans being on the far fringe.
more of the globals are showing those subtropical features, though not in great agreement. a couple have yet another feature that moves north from the vicinity of 15/45. seems too busy, it being november and all.
HF 0648z16november
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danielw
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From the 4AM EST Discussion.
NHC is semi-convinced that TD27 has dissipated. They are waiting on Visible Satellite Imagery to confirm the dissipation.
Hank is on to the situation. is commenting that TD27's demise is probably due to the Low forming in the SW Caribbean.
~The following, are my observations
The newer Low, just off the Costa Rican and Nicaraguan Coast, appears to be attempting a spin up.
However, TD27 is maintaining deep convection near the center. And should bring heavy rain to the ABC Island chain.
See the static sat pic below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/WATL/AVN.jpg
and the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/WATL/AVN_loop.html
NHC Discussion link:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/160830.shtml
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Thunderbird12
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TD27 is officially a goner per the 10AM advisory. 93L looks like the main player now. The takes 93L into Honduras in about 84 hours, then tries to take it back north into the NW Caribbean. It does not indicate a great deal of intensification, though.
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Steve H1
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And they may have done this prematurely. Pay attention to the area of deepening convection a couple of hundred miles to the south of the western tip of Haiti. This is probably the remnant of 27, which could still re-develop, or get pulled into 93L, combining into a tropical cyclone. Lots of potential down there right now, and it wouldn't surprise me if one more hurricane evolves out of this mess. Contrary to some opinions out there, Upper level conditions are getting favorable in the western Caribbean, and this should continue into the weekend as the cold front pushes into the Atlantic off the New England coast. Cheers!!
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HanKFranK
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i'm not sure what is doing for recon today, but if they canceled it and didn't just redirect it to the sw caribbean feature i'm not so sure they'll be reconning anything. 93L is already moving (it seems to have already developed and is responding to the deep layer flow), and will be onshore nicaragua some time tonight.
it looks sort of like this: 93L is essentially a depression. it's broad and in it's formative stages, and has a t-rating of 1.0... so is interpreting this to mean that it isn't a depression yet. i don't find it inconceivable that it has the usual depression conditons associated with it... with the strong low level flow to the north the winds should easily be reaching 25-30kt, with a central pressure near 1006-1007mb. but, no , so no depression for now. maybe the SFC obs aren't showing as much as satellite is.
td 27's runaway center is on the fringe of its envelope, probably going to be absorbed. it actually looks better this morning than it did overnight, but is unlikely to stage a comeback sitting on the edge of a developing system. if it can remain coherent and over water, the feature to the south may hand off territorial rights once it gets onshore.. because the upper pattern over former 27 is now very good.
near the abc islands 27's old mid-level low sort of dragged back, and has left a wind-shift line at the surface and some associated vorticity. the shear down there isn't oppressive, so not impossible that another low won't form over there. don't think it terribly likely, though.
nothing new on the other model-envisioned subtropical type features out in the atlantic. it'll be a few days before they start to pop up, in whatever form they're going to take.
HF 1530z16november
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Steve H1
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Looking at the 12Z Canadien, things get real interesting over the weekend and into next week for the east coast of the US. The and the European model show development of the western Caribbean low, and take it north of Honduras then NE crossing central Cuba and staying just offshore Miami as a hurricane. They bring it up as a phasing system near the mid-Atlantic and it bombs out off the southern New England coast Next Tuesday to 974mb. It will be interesting to see the 12Z Euro today, since the 0Z backed a bit to the west near the Florida east coast. The models are sniffing something bigtime out, and I believe the 12Z hasn't quite caught on yet, but it shows a closed low north of Honduras as well. The hasn't a clue yet, but that's not unusual. This should be last call on the 2005 hurricane season. Thank God! Cheers!!
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ltpat228
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http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Loa...mp;prodnav=none
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HanKFranK
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this was a tough forecast and so far i haven't made good of it. 93L is moving onshore. no recon was sent today so we'll probably never know if it was a tropical cyclone. on the other hand there is a chance that the vorticity from former TD 27 that looped into this thing will get to the north shore of honduras, and that low pressure will recenter itself further north over water. some model suggestion of this, and their does seem to be an elongated axis to the overall turning... but just as good a chance that the whole mess will now camp over nicaragua/honduras just inland and rain itself out. some of this energy may be entrained into the coastal storm forecast to bomb off the east coast next week.
the first hybrid system is kicking, diving sw to the se of bermuda. it's a formative deep layer system, so there will likely be a low-shear window once it stops moving and does the usual cycloidal hook these things tend to have in a couple of days. during that time, whatever is turning at the surface, with the sharp temperature gradient supporting convection, may have time to spin up in the small window these things have for development near the ne caribbean. the diffluence upstream to the east will also likely favor cyclogenesis, though anything that could organize out there would move north and probably not develop much.
with the strong nao negative pattern forecast over the atlantic later this month, the globals continue to have another strong deep layer low south of the azores in the extended period. that'll need to be watched.
HF 0543z17november
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danielw
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SW Caribbean.
NHC is saying that the current Low will probably move onshore before attaining any Tropical status.
2 AM Discussion here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/170530.shtml?
Low level Center of Circ at this time appears to be just north of the center of the Honduran Coast. However, the mass of convection is situated to the NE of this point. All of the major convection is Northeast of the Nicaraguan/ Honduran Border.
Outflow is impressive from the SW Quad and around the Northern semicircle to the E Quad. Out flow at this time can be seen over the Southern half of the Florida Peninsula and south to the Florida Straits.
Tasking for the USAFR Hurricane Hunters is for a 1345Z takeoff Thursday, with an initial center fix time of 1800Z (1PM EST). With a 'follow on" mission tasked for the 18th at 1800Z...if the system remains offshore.
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UKCloudgazer
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93L appears to have become rather better organised inn the last hour or so. I imagine they will have to move the floater soon.
None of the models reflect this at present, but I remember one or two of them showing this a couple of days ago.
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Hugh
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Quote:
93L appears to have become rather better organised inn the last hour or so. I imagine they will have to move the floater soon.
None of the models reflect this at present, but I remember one or two of them showing this a couple of days ago.
The sun hasn't risen over 93L yet, but looking at the IR4 loop... it's far from moving onshore into Honduras - considering that the convection is moving NW, not West. The convection is still displaced from the LLC, but I suspect that the center will reform during the day under the convection, and that we'll have TD 28 if the doesn't cancel the recon into it. The position of the cold front will, IMHO, prevent landfall in Central America, and push the system north and eventually northeast. In other words, it's going exactly where TD 27 was originally forecast to go.
There appears to be a HUGE ULL in the Atlantic northeast of the islands, moving southwest. I think this feature will close the book on the most active hurricane season on record.... finally... unless something weird happens like it forms a low at the surface and becomes a tropical or subtropical cyclone itself. Not gonna happen.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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