saluki
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What's with the ? The latest run takes Gamma back up to 100kts at 72 hours, though keeping it south of the Florida peninsula. Many posters have observed that the has a penchant for overdoing it. Is that the case here?
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danielw
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This is an excerpt from the 4AM EST-Saturday Advisory. It may answer some or all of the above question.~danielw
THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA.
AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.
SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AND SHIPS MODELS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/190833.shtml
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danielw
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This is another excerpt of the 4 AM Advisory. The words; Break, Weakness and Alley somewhat raise the threat level to me personally. I have highlighted those 3 words for emphasis~danielw
...UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z...
ALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE...
INDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY
FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA.
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ralphfl
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you should also highlight the part that shows the track which now just about has it miss florida but for the keys and also cuba going over and then the forcast is for it to stay about the same strength maybe 5mph more..
If it had no rain a afternoon TS would be worse.
Edited by ralphfl (Sat Nov 19 2005 01:02 PM)
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Hugh
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I keep thinking (which is dangerous on a Saturday morning before 9am) that the is not all that confident in the forecast. They haven't shifted it significantly since Gamma formed, but the dynamics may play out differently. Of course, that's why there is a cone and not (just) a series of dots with a black line connecting them.
The system has not significantly (or at all) intensified overnight, which is a good thing, and it may never get much stronger. In fact, the satellite presentation looks worse than 12 hours ago. I'm starting to think the storm won't make it to Florida (going south of there) and won't even survive into the Atlantic.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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srsarner
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I believe your first post on Gamma is inaccurate. The Caribbean analysis charts for the last week clearly show Gamma originated in the southwestern Caribbean not the northeast. At the same time TD 27 formed south of the USVI a second low formed north of eastern Panama. While TD 27 weakened and dissappeared from the charts the second low moved due west along the coast of Panama supported by a strong southerly flow from the Pacific. The second low finally turned northwest passing through Nicaragua and Honduras to emerge as TS Gamma. This is nearly identical to the path of Beta which formed directly over the Panama Canal during the last week of Oct.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Although it is a moot point since we now have 'Gamma', I believe that Clark's analysis is accurate. TD 27 became an open wave and was nudged west southwest by the strength of the Atlantic ridge over Florida a couple of days ago. The open wave then moved west just north of the north shore of South America. The secondary low - actually an upper level low - moved onshore as you described and weakened considerably. TD 27 closed off again and regenerated to the northeast of the weak secondary low - and quickly strengthened to tropical storm strength. The Navy (NRL) continued to monitor the remnants of 27 and reclassified it as a TD a few hours before upgraded the system to a TS. Post analysis of satellite data supports this genesis.
To clarify another point of interesting discussion in this thread, a RECON Vortex Message is not required in order to upgrade a system to TS status. Upgrades are often made based on satellite wind data measurements - frequent examples are Cape Verde systems in the far eastern Atlantic that are upgraded to TD or TS status without the benefit of any RECON measurements.
Cheers,
ED
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MikeC
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Post made to correct forum error.
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Lee-Delray
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If Gamma stays on its course south of Fla., through the sraights any guess about the weathe rin Palm Beach County? We'll obviously be on the weaker wind side, but what about rain?
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bobbutts
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Hazardous weather outlook for S. FL
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook
says:
Quote:
...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA, LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, HAS
SOME POTENTIAL TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. THE FUTURE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF GAMMA REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVEN IF
GAMMA DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR SQUALLS TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES ON MONDAY.
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Lee-Delray
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Just noticed a big southeast move from the on wunderground. Is this from the finding the center southeast of where they thought? It looks like its closer the , but it's still predicting a hurricane.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Sat Nov 19 2005 06:17 PM)
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Old Sailor
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Gamma shows a little stronger then 45 MPH see Recon Info..
628
URNT12 KNHC 191805
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:43:30Z
B. 16 deg 14 min N
085 deg 12 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 10 deg 076 nm
F. 039 deg 046 kt
G. 010 deg 077 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C/ 212 m
J. 25 C/ 214 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0427A GAMMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Dave
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dave foster
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Based upon the quoted coordinates Gamma's been heading SE at 15-18mph for the last 4 hours.
I think HNC have it all wrong at the moment if that is indeed the case?
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Lee-Delray
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Seems that the has substantailly shifted its track south and weaken Gamma. Can Fox News stop calling it a hurricane now? Also noticed that the weather channel is calling for much, much less rain in Palm Beach County (like less than an inch). 
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ftlaudbob
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Great news about Gamma!Now let this be the last one,and enjoy the Holidays.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
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Well I always learn more from the ones that don't quite make it. I see your points...but it still seems they called it on wind and not much else, and could have called TD28 instead. The convection never wrapped completely around. But basically as you say, in for a penny, in for a pound, and we officially have Gamma. And something had to come of all that energy in the Carib the last week or so. What is going to happen now with the storm is much more interesting even than it's formation.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Lee-Delray
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MArgie-
I agree since it's not going to hit us.
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Wxwatcher2
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Goodbye Gamma and hopefully the 2005 season.
I'll agree it was a year for the record books. However does anyone else think that there were perhaps two or more storms that might not have been named in years past? Storms that barely barely met the qualifications
for a Tropical Storm.........
I guess it's something to ponder over a warm winter fire.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.......and lets count our blessings....
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Lee-Delray
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If nothing else Dr. Gray was wrong he said there would be no tropical systems in November. We're getting some spotty heavy rain in S. Florida but it's out of the east (whew!!!!)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Seems that the has substantailly shifted its track south and weaken Gamma. Can Fox News stop calling it a hurricane now? Also noticed that the weather channel is calling for much, much less rain in Palm Beach County (like less than an inch).
You got to love Fox news when it comes to storms as they are the bigest wishcaster's around.
Anyway as said yesterday the squall line with the next front will be more of a event then this thing they call gamma. Also the track a few of us said yesterday seems to be playing out never mmaking it to Florida.
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