Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
But it doesn't look like the tropical storms I've been seeing and learning about all season. It doesn't look very tropical. On the water vapor the temperature of the center isn't all that warm, the convection doesn't look the same like I'm used to seeing, and there's some kind of lack of, I'm not sure how to put it, but the band doesn't seem like a feeder band, with a force driving the convection into the center. It's more like a group of clouds that are all moving around the center, but only because of the rotation, like they're all just sitting in place, like a record on a turntable; staying the same, static. It seems like there is some dynamic that is missing.
Unbelieveably, the Circulation that Wouldn't Die is still spinning and now pulling along some convection as it heads into Central America at the border of Panama and Costa Rica.
You're right, in a lot of ways Margie, these relatively 'cold' tropical systems are an odd entity. they exist in relatively cool waters, forming in isolation from an extra tropical low. even when/if this storm develops an eye, you won't see cloud tops in the -60 - -70 degree range, instead you'll see a ring in the -40's maybe -50's that just look unimpressive compared to the storms that typically form, but there is still winds of 70 - 80mph in the center.
I Know I keep coming back to Olga in 2001, but it really was the Archetype 'cold' warm core system. The system was over relatively cold water (22 - 23 degress centigrade) when it was finally classified first, ST, then tropical storm and then deemed a hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/OLGA_text.html
From:
HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INTERMITTENT EYE AT THE
CENTER OF OGLA...WHICH AS OF THIS WRITING IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM . ON THIS BASIS...OLGA IS UPGRADED TO
A 65 KT HURRICANE.
Then later in the discussion:
OLGA IS CURRENTLY OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
an extra point made in a later disussion:
THE OCEAN IS COOL...BUT ACCORDING THE THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TOWARD INTENSIFICATION
The south atlantic Hurricane was also an example of a 'cold' tropical system. They do pop up from time to time, it just takes several things to happen to create one. Hopefully this will help us all understand hybrid systems and the cool tropical systems when they develop. (The more we can study the better we can understand them)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Mark brings up a good point via the discussion on Olga -- it's not just the surface temperatures that are important, although having that surface heating (and moisture) does help a lot. Instead, the key factor is the difference in temperature between the ocean's surface and the top of the troposphere, or the tropopause. If you have cooler than ideal SSTs, say 5C below normal, you can "make up for it" with cooler temperatures at the tropopause, also 5C cooler than what you might normally see in the tropics.
This all works because we view a tropical cyclone as a heat engine. As with all machines, a heat engine has a specified efficiency -- you aren't going to get it working perfectly, in many cases. With a tropical system, the efficiency is generally about 30%; this efficiency is specified by the difference in temperatures noted above. This helps to drive a lot of the midlatitude "tropically transitioned" tropical systems and was a key factor in the development of Vince.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A Low within a Low??
95L appears to be on the NW Quadrant of a much larger Low.
Image-copyright 2005 EUMETSAT
copyright 2005 EUMETSAT
http://www.eumetsat.int/idcplg?IdcService=SS_GET_PAGE&nodeId=444&l=en
Edited by danielw (Wed Nov 23 2005 02:33 AM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I'd spotted that as well... it could drive 95 down south and south west, or it could shear it to pieces... depending on the relative motions of the 2 systems....
be interesting to see what shows up in visible imagry
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That larger Low may be the reasoning behind the forecast motion of 95L.
Similar to the Fujiwara effect.
A Low rotating around another Low.
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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As an intresting side note, 2001, 2003, and 2004 all had named systems in December. Based on that and the way we're going we might make it to Zeta (Delta [already out there, just waiting for the name], Epsilon, Zeta), the first and likely last "Z" storm.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Well, I'm really confused now! What has everyone been watching for the last 12 hours and discussing. It seems like I've been watching a low, not 95L. It appears that the 4x4 mass that was centred on 30N 40W at 0000z was not 95L, even though it looked like a tropical-type system with a developing eye and distinct banding. Now, I look at the latest images and still see the 4x4 mass centred at 27.5N 40.9W, but that is some 2.5 degrees south of where 95L is supposed to be located, although I cannot see anything there?? From what I am now reading, and from what I just saw in the animation, 95L has been, and still is, embedded in the 4x4 low and revolving inside it. Someone please tell me, is that the case? And, if so, how could so many people on this forum have got it so wrong?
I have to say that, like many others here 12 hours ago, I couldn't understand why the were not classifying
what I was seeing. I think I now understand why - they weren't seeing what everyone else appeared to be seeing.
I just want to understand what has actually been happening in the mid atlantic since just before this thread was started.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Tomorrow being Thanksgiving in America, most weather stations, news, etc. have been showing all the snow in the US and barely mentioning any possible tropical activities.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Let's face it 95L really isn't that important. It's not going to hit the US, but a snowstorm will screw up millions of people.
It's fun for us to look at this as hobbiests; nothing else.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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ITPat - you know why? All the snow, rain and windy conditions ARE effecting people in the US. That stupid storm in the atlantic is bothering shipping and the fish - who cares!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
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Here are some of the previous co-ordinates from Old Sailor on an earlier post.
22/2345 UTC 29.8N 40.9W T2.0/2.0 95
22/1745 UTC 30.9N 40.4W ST2.5/2.5 95
22/1145 UTC 31.3N 39.9W ST2.5/2.5 95
The latest Navy co-ordinates at 1415Z are 272N-409W.
Looks like it on the Atlantic map too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html
So It appears to be moving south. (Does this mean it is about to disconnect from main low?) Assume you are not confusing 40W with 40N. Also not confusing time differences on this site - 5 hours earlier than Ztime. Of course, I may be confused myself...
Anyway, if HankFrank, Clark, Tip, Margie, DanielW, Bloodstar and all the others I am learning from are seeing something, I always assume it's me that hasn't got it yet! http://i.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/icons/smile.gif
Looks like snow on both sides of the Atlantic this weekend...
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Quote:
Tomorrow being Thanksgiving in America, most weather stations, news, etc. have been showing all the snow in the US and barely mentioning any possible tropical activities.
Dave-
I didn't mean to upset you. I was saying that an invest way out in the Atlantic is in the scope of things not important to someone in New York who is stuck in an airport or on the road because of weather conditions.
When Hurricane hit and our phones and electric were out for a week I had people in Georgia complaining they couldn't get a hold of us. They didn't have a clue as to what was going on, nor did they care.
If 95L turns into Delta and does a bee line to the US, some will wake up; if it doesn't aim for the US to 99.5% of the population it's a footnote.
By the way, our local weather is covering it.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the local weather offices are not in control of monitoring hurricane activity, the is
This system looks nearly identical to Peter in 2003, which as far as i am concerned was a hurricane
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Nov 24 2005 09:48 PM)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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I gather intel from many sources (including some of these posts) as I'm a Floridian and literally, have almost had my fill of hurricanes in my state. My entire family lives in various cities within my state and if a 'cane doesn't affect me directly, it almost always goes near another family member's town.
Last year was the real kicker with and Jeanne's eyes going directly over where I live on the ocean. We suffered massive devastation and to this day, I am still helping clean and rebuild my community. I quit my long-time profession after Jeanne enabling me to hop out in to the streets and attempt to put our homes back together.
I have never known a more rewarding phase in my life.
I fully am aware that several weather hobbyists thoroughly enjoy prediciting what course Mother Nature will take as well as interacting with other hobbyists. In some posts I am observing almost an obsession with "needing to know."
What happens...happens.
I am grateful for all your posts yet more vitally, the opportunity to assist my community...each and every aftermath...lol.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Looks like the Navy site had their image pointing at the wrong place at 1137z. Confused the hell out of me
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/95L.htm
It was still wrong on the backup site an hour ago.
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Hey Lee
It's understandable that you'd be more interested in the weather at home than some 'feature' in the mid Atlantic.
I'm sorry if I flew off the handle, been having a bad day all round.
Dave
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there was a lot of off-topic type stuff above. of course, this is a system far into the atlantic, since it would be storm 25 if it developed, it would still have some significance climatologically--the news outlets might pick up on it as a feature, blame it on global warming somehow. ya know.
stewart wrote the last discussion on it just a little while ago--a little surprising as he usually doesn't sit on things, but he seems to be following the leader for now. if it doesn't have enough tropical characteristics at this point (i.e., frontally detached, partial convective ring, banding eye)... not sure what it'll take. since it's still embedded in a large deep layer complex, they may be deciding to use that as reason for why it isn't a tropical cyclone at this point. earlier storms that formed in this way were usually the dominant feature within such a deep layer low... this one still has a pair of upper vortmaxes and an elongated surface trough/front around the east side... while the storm 95L has pivoted seperately around to the southwest. there is a clearly some anticyclonic outflow from the convection... you can see it fanning slightly as it swirls out into the upper vortex to the east within the complex. could also be that they see the progress to the south and are waiting for it to cross warmer SST isotherms for some reason. it's on the 25C isotherm right now... roughly 77F, which isn't by any means an unprecedented temp for a storm. also noticed ssd didn't issue a number on it last cycle. can't understand why (it was t 2.5 in the prior rating).
either way, when you see a discrete feature that looks as good as vince or peter did, it makes one wonder why the hesitance. whether they operationally rate it or not, it's going into the archives as one. not sure why they're pretending it isn't a tropical storm already.
anyway, tropical storm delta is out there today. same old story.
stuff in the caribbean is still 'there', but not in a big way. the low north of panama got blasted into extinction by a strong mid level dry jet associated with the front that punched down there. it wasn't related to gamma, by the way.. gamma's swirl actually decayed into that jet as it was pushed down the nicaraguan coast. but anyway, still general low pressure in the area, which will have some ridging build aloft a tad later this week. could look a little more interesting around saturday. there's also that weak low/wind shift south of puerto rico still. if it were september/october that would be more interesting.. but this late in the year with the shear it's taking.. nah.
HF 1712z23november
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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our unnamed, unclassified tropical storm is developing an eye and now has winds to 60 mph
it is still not going to be classified today for some reason
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
our unnamed, unclassified tropical storm is developing an eye and now has winds to 60 mph. It is still not going to be classified today for some reason
Any idea why the center might be relucrtant to name it? I
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005
...THE 25TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 SEASON
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1150
MILES...1850 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 40.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
re-issue
TROPICAL STORM DELTA ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005
CORRECTED TIME
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Nov 23 2005 03:27 PM)
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