Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Because it is not quite there yet. They're probably waiting for convection to go 'round more than halfway. I expect at the 5pm.
Convection is much, much improved from this morning, is banding around the center, and is almost half-way around. And there is a lot more convection than at any time previously. Big improvement the last four hours or so.
Has been changed to NONAME on site.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 429
|
|
345 miles across for TS strength winds; it's huge. Thank God it's a fish spinner.
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
noname on with 60mph winds will probably be SubTS or TS Delta probably
edit: now a TS, not subtropical, and it is forecast to be near hurricane intensity by this time tomorrow
side note: this is the second time since 2001 to have two November storms
Edited by Rabbit (Wed Nov 23 2005 08:48 PM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
finally. it's already at tropical phase and probably has been for at least 12-18hr based on satellite analyses. the subtropical phase will probably be analyzed back to midday yesterday... when it's frontal association started to break down.
the forecast track is somewhat similar to peter of 2003, translated north. some of the global models are sweeping it up into or converting it into a powerful, storm west of the azores in a few days. in the meanwhile it may acquire hurricane strength during the next 24hr given the environmental conditions and vertically compact, shear-resistant structure.
some of the globals are handing in the medium range are banking this system west, such as the euro, , and ukmet. with the blocking pattern continuing in the north atlantic this system may get slung around out there for the coming week... even if it doesn't remain a tropical entity.
a lot of the models are showing a more favorable shear pattern over the caribbean at the end of the week. if that mess near panama remains coherent we may be having to eye things down there by next week.
HF 2057z23november
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Hank don't you think the key was the convection? Convection looked positively pitiful up until a couple hours ago, regardless of what other characteristics were there.
i didn't think so. it doesn't have as much convection as a tropical-origin system, but the stuff was 'organized' and clinging to the center, so the usual shear argument was out. a lot of tropical storms have a hard time doing that under the sort of shear this thing is under. it's also being analyzed as warm core, which removes the 'it's not tropical' argument. add to that that it clearly has strong winds... i dunno, what more do you need? not calling it a tropical cyclone is just playing games with meaning, and finding idiosyncrasies to twist conventional definitions. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Nov 24 2005 12:42 AM)
|
Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
|
|
Here is to ending the season (?) with a fish storm.
--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE
TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS
WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE
...Which also tips their hat as to the belated arrival of this decision to upgrade this afternoon...
At least we can take confidence that the reasons were more meteorological 
However, I still believe this decision should have been made yesterday... It's ok..
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Nov 23 2005 09:19 PM)
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
Here is to ending the season (?) with a fish storm.
...Yeah....that's the conditionally favored result that ends every season actually...You just have a very large tropical Atlantic that remains well enough unperturbed by the seasonal flux incursion of the westerlies into lower latitudes for it not to; where by, the opposites takes place near the Contiguous U.S. where troughing is "usually" expressed first and most persistently...Not always, most most seasons...
Cheers
TT
|
La Nimo
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 42
Loc: st. pete beach
|
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
|
dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
|
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 25 2005 02:53 AM)
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
to anyone who is interested:
if you honestly think that something should be classified, and want to begin your track there, use the satellite loops at 03z, 09z, 15z, and 21z, or as close as you can get, for the positions, and use the indicated winds--thats what ive been doing this and last season, and all but two of them were actually classified: one being the debatable subtropical depression in June near NC, the other being the tropical storm (i say that because it had a closed low and indicated 45mph winds) that was in the middle of the Atlantic prior to and around the time of Jose, as well as the remaining several days of TD10 after it was classified a remnant low
subts
depression
unnamed TS (far east edge of image)
isn't that tropical storm lee in pre-development? it does have that look. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Nov 24 2005 12:46 AM)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
[(off-topic comments removed)
And so we have Delta. Amazing, simply amazing. Doesn't look like it's moving very fast. Wonder if we'll get an Epsilon.
In case you can't tell, I'm too tired of this season to give any sort of detailed analysis on Delta...come on January! Then it will be next season! 
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 25 2005 02:58 AM)
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Floater one is in the process of being transitioned to Delta. Finally, close-up views.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
UKCloudgazer
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 21
Loc: Wallasey
|
|
Hurray. Been trying to find a good view. Fed up with Meteostat; is it out of focus or old technology or what?
|
Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
|
|
Good. The last IR4 loop ended about an hour and a half ago. With all the convection on the east side, it almost makes it look like it will do its starting its couunter clock turn east of 40
|
Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
|
|
Floater 1 has it now. Only about 35 minutes old. To me it looks like its on its southeastern portion of the loop.
|
tpratch
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
|
|
He's been on probation twice and saw fit to not be too beligerent for a while.
He's out of line, I happened to be on, he's gone for 2 days. If it's his time to be banned, the call will be made by admins with longer history than myself.
Back to your regularly scheduled storm discussion.
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I caught the fact there was a delta on another news site a few minutes ago. Here's to the never-ending-story, may it end by November 30th. OR are we not following deadlines this year?
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 25 2005 03:00 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
From the 7 PM EST TWD.
"MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC... AND
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT OR WLY SURFACE
WINDS COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W... WHICH IS FAIRLY RARE."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/232336.shtml?
Fairly rare to have light or westerly winds in the Atlantic from 30W-60W? What will that do to Dr Gray's December forecast parameters? That should infer that pressures in that area are higher thatn normal...right?
Edited by danielw (Thu Nov 24 2005 12:52 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
there isn't much else to say about delta. it'd been looking fishy on the models for quite some time... was sort of irritating that the ignored it for a good while after it showed up. now it's there, doing it's thing, not bothering anyone. the globals are showing a sort of system hand-off in the central atlantic next week that could at least be interesting (nothing to overtly suggest another system). there's a little bit of ridging showing in the caribbean on them as well.. with a nagging sort of disturbance in the sw caribbean that's usually there this time of year.
HF 0131z24november
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 25 2005 03:02 AM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
