MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The record breaking 2005 Hurricane Season continues, with yet another named system. This one is no threat to land, as it will eventually meander in the central Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Delta is being tracked. More to come later.
TS Delta (from )
Click for full size:
Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Delta - Static Image
CIMSS TS Delta Page
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Tak
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
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RAMSDIS has some nice loops. Looks like its starting to gain latitude. On IR floater, it looks like convection tried to wrap around the west side but it didnt quite make it. Is that an eye trying to form?
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Fox news said Delta will be a hurricane tonight; they might not be far off.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Good morning all. Delta is so very interesting. I have been watching storms all season now, but have not seen anything like this. It looks so strange on the visual sat images, almost like it is forming in reverse of what I have gotten used to seeing with TC, starting at the outside and working in. The wind field has consolidated as it has strengthened, but it seems the core will will be the last part to develop. I stared at the visual loop for a long time this morning (luckily it's all the same to the furball, who is very non-judgemental anyay, but fortunate really that no one was watching, or they'd wonder if the closest I could get to a brainstorm would be a light drizzle). It may seem odd, but visual imprinting of all these images makes a great reference tool for recognizing things down the road.
Looks like Stewart is holding down the fort at TPC for the holiday. I so enjoy reading his discussions. He has a knack for clarifying things, using terminology that most everybody can understand. He explained the outflow, something I was wondering about yesterday, wondering where the anticyclonic flow could come from since Delta is moving within a larger low:
DELTA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG 38-39N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE AND FOR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. THE 300 MB WINDS ARE DEPICTED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS BEING AT LEAST 20 KT LESS THAN THEY ARE 200 MB... SO THE SHIPS MODEL VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS OF 42 KT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. THE MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY WEAK 300 MB WINDS OVER DELTA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
And he again emphasized the importance of organized convection around the center, and the resulting difference between a normal eye and the center around which the clouds are swirling:
AND THE ONLY REASON THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE.
The track forecast is really excellent (remember Beta...and when to follow the models):
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/02 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TAKE DELTA SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING IT BACK TO THE NORTH... DESPITE THE BROAD COUNTER CLOCKWISE MOTION THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD MAKE SOME SMALL LOOPS OR WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION... BUT THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK BY 72-120 HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY 120H IS EXPECTED DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA.
The best part of tracking these storms for me is watching the visual images, but the second best part has to be reading the TPC discussions. You often hear the phrase that this or that scientific pursuit is an art (such as, forecasting is an art), and as a large part of myself is an artist, I'd have to agree that there is a point where all the logic and knowledge meet with that other intuitive process, and these people on staff at TPC have both the knowledge and intuition, in spades. The discussions not only provide color in the B&W numerical world of meteorology, but manage, within the many guidelines and limitations inherent with the required wording and the product (not to mention the politics involved), to reflect each individual forecaster's personality as to how they approach the forecasting process.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005
THE EYE FEATURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME RAGGED
AND LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT DELTA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN
14-16Z WHEN THE EYE WAS BEST DEFINED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM /SAB AND A 1638Z UW-CIMSS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 978 MB AND 72 KT.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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This is one big storm, it must be burning a lot of warm water. Since it reached and dropped from hurricane status between advisories will it "offically" be called hurricane Delta? 
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Please help me understand why so many posters copy and paste storm info in their posts when one can go to several sites, i.e. Intellicast USA, Gemcode, etc...and find what they need immediately..?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Please help me understand why so many posters copy and paste storm info in their posts when one can go to several sites, i.e. Intellicast USA, Gemcode, etc...and find what they need immediately..?
Because we are discussing the storm and it makes sense to backup your statement.
Meanwhile, Delta looks almost like Vince did earlier this year. Since it has the ragged eye feature. I find it amazing we have had two storms form near the Azores in almost identical ways.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually you make a good point. It is not necessary to repeat an entire post from the since the site has a link to the at the bottom-left of your screen. It is okay to copy a portion of an bulletin to emphasize your point, but otherwise it just duplicates information that is readily available from this site.
ED
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Major7
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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Hey, if we end up with "only" 7 major storms, do I win a prize for calling myself Major7?
This has been an incredible hurricane season, and while it is not over yet, with all this cool weather here in S. Florida, I would be surprised to see anything else head this way.
Hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday. I'll be looking forward to everyone's predictions and discussions during the 2006 season.
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Well, don't need hurricanes to get nice strong winds...the front that swept through Maryland last night I clocked 3 60mph gusts on my handheld windguage...about 5 minutes before the power died.
Delta still spins away...still not hurricane I see. Wild season is hopefully drawing to a close.
gee man, i remember that stuff. bet your face was numb after those suckers. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Nov 25 2005 01:26 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Well, don't need hurricanes to get nice strong winds...the front that swept through Maryland last night I clocked 3 60mph gusts on my handheld windguage...about 5 minutes before the power died.
Delta still spins away...still not hurricane I see.
We've also had several very windy days here in MSP the last month. Today, though, just beautiful snow.
Delta didn't quite ever make it to hurricane strength, the closest was yesterday. But it appears interesting things will continue to happen:
...MAY RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID/UPPER- LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WITH THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING BEHIND TO INTERACT WITH AN LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA IN 72 HOURS.
I'm glad this season is facinating right up to the end.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Hi,
Looking at Delta (and remembering Vince earlier in the season) left me wondering hurricanes ever hit the regions of the East Atlantic like the Canary Islands, or Morocco, or even Portugal? Did that ever happen? There are eastward moving cyclones in the Pacific and in the Caribbean. What about the Atlantic?
Also, a friend of mine live in Venezuela (lucky him!) and he claims that they never, ever, have hurricanes. Is that possible?
Many thanks,
VS
a weakening tropical system on its last legs, vince, made landfall in southern spain back in october. that was a first. venezuela doesn't get hit much. occasionally a storm will move along their north coast. usually they don't make landfall. lucky for hugo chavez. -HF
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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All of the models pretty universally shoot off a chunk of energy of off delta, and back into the central Atlantic. Perhaps one more before we close this out? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Nanci
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
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MARGIE - I live on the Gulf Coast and the word "fascinating" is not a word i would use to describe this season. Maybe you feel that way because you are tucked away all safe and sound in Minnesota, but not for those of us in the hurricane prone areas. The last two years has been hell for a lot of folks from Texas to the Florida Keys. I doubt they find anything about hurricanes "fascinating". I am sure you go through a lot of trouble when you lose power because of ice storms and or extreme cold, but still, it can't be anything like what we endure during a major hurricane. I used to live up north, i know what it's like during the winter, but in all my years of going through blizzards and ice storms never once did i have to evacuate or worry about losing my home. I guess it's easy to feel relaxed and at ease about hurricane season when you don't actually have to live through it, so please try to have some compassion for those of us who must deal with these storms six months out of the year. Thank You.
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Nanci
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Just me but I found out fascinating and I have lived through my fair share of storms in my young life. Its destructive but still awe inspiring and fascinating.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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delta is finally accelerating to the east-northeast. it's still firing deep convection, but should be under progressively greater shear and lower SSTs, so the tropical nature of this system is not going to last much longer. interesting that some of the moisture will end up sweeping onshore in morocco and the western sahara autonomous region... that's rather vince-like in its abnormality. the surface center will have probably decayed by then, unless it becomes the dominant feature of the shortwave diving down to pull the storm out. could just be a sheared-off moisture plume by then.
for the last few days the globals have been handing off energy to another system to the west of delta--it is forecast to rapidly spin up as another kink of upper energy cuts off southwest of the block in the north atlantic. most show it moving southwest for a spell, then lifting north as the heights to the northwest begin to fall. in other words, it's doing the same sort of cut-off stunt as delta just did, more or less. these things sometimes hybridize into tropical systems, but i will say that this one doesn't have the same model look as delta did--it's chances of converting aren't nearly as good as delta's were. this is 2005, though. nothing is impossible.
HF 1718z26november
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Nanci, I am so sorry you lost your home and all the other things that the last two season have caused. I am in Florida and was greatly affected financially by last year's storms directly, and financially this year but indirectly by the storms that hit south of me this year. We have been informed that although we did not file a claim nor did we even suffer a close hit this year, that our insurance premium will go up on our home which is worth less than one third of what insurance companies are paying out to people on the shores of the Florida Coasts for mansion-like structures. It is not fair. IT is also financial damage to us since our income is fixed regardless of what the storms do.
Having said all this, mother nature is and continues to be fascinating just as a fire in the fireplace is hypnotic, but will destroy you if used or allowed to get out of control.
I don't think fascinating in this instance is a pleasurable term it is just descriptive we can't seem to stop watching nor should we.Speaking of which, is mother nature trying to teach us the entire Greek alphabet this year? I have a Greek grammar book I can read if I need to thank you very much.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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I have to agree with CaneTracker. I've lived in SW Florida for 18 years and the only reason I follow storms as close as I do is because I find them fascinating. Every storm is different and unique in their own way and its very fascinating to follow them and see what they do. I dont like hurricanes, I just find them incredibly interesting. Just like people. Some run and scream when danger comes their way, others stare in awe and wonder, everyone's a bit different.
edit: Especially this year. didn’t give us anything on the NE quad where it should have been at least rainy (here in SW FL, NO obviously got much worse and my heart goes out to them) and gave us hell on her back side when her front side was pretty weak.
Edited by Myles (Sat Nov 26 2005 12:56 PM)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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I fully empathize with your distress, Nanci.
I live on the east coast and have been in Floirda all my life...52 years.
I've endured more hurricanes than I can recall...even as a child being brought up in Fort Lauderdale.
There is absolutely nothing fascinating nor exciting when one can finally (after getting through the local Police and Military) get back on to the barrier islands only to view massive destruction.
It is, simply...incomprehensible and heart-breaking.
I do; however; understand how weather enthusiasts would find tropical activity interesting as that is their bag.
Different strokes for different folks, man...lol. Hell, I still wear tie-dyed shirts!
For me, I've decided to move away from the ocean where I now reside and by next weekend will be living on the mainland.
I will never leave my home state of Florida.
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