CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 133
Loc: East Central Florida 28.45N 81.06W
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Active Early season...
Another depression may form in the area western Caribbean Sea, and may slip its way into the Gulf.
W'e're watching this one as well.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]
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Derek Sutherland
Unregistered
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This one is a keeper, i think it will definently develope into something, at least a depression! Where it goes in the Gulf, nobody knows.
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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As noted on Storm 2k and earlier this week, I found the was predicting a hurricane (at that time like 99x) making landfall in the Big Bend/Cedar Key area. The Canadian picked up on this flow, which I assumed was eventually going to be deep tropical moisture. Instead, we got a big blow up out of a completely innocuous wave that no one was even paying attention to while TD #2 was the issue.
I'll bet everyone's paying attention now  . For absolutely no reason at all except the Canadian Model predicted the development and landfall - then backed off in successive runs - I'm going to go with a Florida landfall - probably peninsula at least as a strong tropical storm. Tampa hasn't been hit in a while, but my gut is that it's going to be somewhere between Apalachacola and Cedar Key.
Steve
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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On second thought, I think the run brought it down to 987.
Steve
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Caribbean still looking good this afternoon with some deep convection… at least it’s not weakening, yet… If, IF, did I say IF it does develop, it probably will be slow to occur… a few models pick up the system and either shunt it off to West Florida or Lower Mexico, which means absolutely nothing… SHIP’s has it up to 65K in 120 hours, but IMO SHIP’s has been a poor performer regarding predicting intensity or it has been in the past … an area the models are usually weakest in forecasting… latest model run link attached
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/03061418
Steve, I mentioned your post on the Canadian run in my last post in the other forum... good call... now lets see if it comes to fruition
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Actually,no offense, I think it will make landfall farther south around the tampa bay area? What do you think?
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Derek Sutherland
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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Predict whatever you want. I think it's West Florida's problem no matter what. I'm just giving props to the run that started it all. You may be right that a more southerly track through SW FL could hit. The SST anomalies there are pretty warm compared to the rest of the Gulf. And if the Bastardi-magnet theory holds up, that's the likely place for a storm to want to be.
Steve
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Yeah, no doubt about it it will be West Florida or really close to there.
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Derek Sutherland
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Whats the Bastardi-magnet theroy, never heard of it?
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Derek Sutherland
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Just how did this thing develop? I haven't been watching the tropics at all today, so I suppose it blew up this morning when I wasn't watching.
Kudos, well somewhat anyways, to the model for its early runs picking up on a tropical system making landfall on the Florida Peninsula.
I'm not banking on anything more than a tropical storm at this point. But that is out of my conservative nature early in these types of situations. The upper-level winds are getting more favorable and the water temps are warm enough to support an intense hurricane--not that I am suggesting this.
All Floridians MUST watch this system.
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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Is that tropical systems love to head for warm water vs. average or below. He shows this all the time and how the warm water in the Atlantic, when other signals are somewhat weak, can be a big influence on where storms will head. Below is a link to the FNMOC OTIS 4.0 SST Anomalies page (recently changed so if anyone had it on a favorites list, you might need to update it) that shows every day the departure of sea surface temperatures from normal. Currently, the SW Coast of Florida and an area around 30N-60W are the hotspots.
Here's the link:
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
Steve
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2107
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Steve - thanks for the link. This was one of my favorites and I thought that I had lost it.
Cheers,
ED
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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No problem Ed. Here's the link to OTIS (rather than just the link to the the SSTAs'):
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/OTIS/otis.html
Steve
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Wow I was in the mall from this morning to early afternoon to find this system from a tropical wave to now developing rapidly a surface low.But as we know the tropics has surprises to offer us but I think that the season already has been of records ANA and TD#2 so more records and surprises are going to be a norm this season. 
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Good Call Steve. Why the thought that its Florida bound? Just curious> Is there anything dropping thru the plains that would steer it NE? That is, assuming it develops (which seems likely I guess). I say this because of the theory that the first place we think it will go it doesn't. Cheers!! 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
i have been working two twelve hour shifts the past two days so have missed out on all this new development. Looking at what is currently Tropical DIsturbance 92L, it certainly looks like a well organised and developing system. In fact it kinda reminds me of how Bertha looked shortly before hitting the Carolinas a few years back! I think we will see this one develop further, probably becomming TS Bill. As for its landfalling targets... well i have reviewed no models so i dont really know where they take it. From what i have seen i reckon on a course over or just to the east of the tip of the Yucatan before going into the Florida big bend. Still, all this is a long shot, and only if this one develops! Still, a very active week!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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This one is a Florida storm for sure. I don't see any way that you people in the "sunshine" state can miss this one. It shouldn't become that strong of a system,though. That's good news.
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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Steve H.
I'm just basing it on the run that first showed it last Monday or Tuesday out of nothing. Warm SSTA's off SW FL and the talk about a weakness in the SW Atlantic Ridge.
Steve
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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System continues to build some impressive convection tonight. GOES IR most impressive with some intense "high tops to the convection" with a large blob of white convection developing off the Nig/Hond coast.... hard to tell reading the IR but movement to me is more north or north-north west if anything... interesting to see if it continues to develop thru the night... if so, I say we'd have Bill tomorrow... and blow my July 10 prediction for him out of the water.... latest models still show a west coast of Fl target... but it's way to early to tell... alot of the early modeling depends on the initialization...and that's rather difficult to pinpoint with a developing system.... still something for us to watch, esp you Floridians...
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StormCooper
Unregistered
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If it forms... and it looks like it should, shift the strike area a little west... from Mobile to Port Saint Joe.
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