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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Are we there yet? [Re: eduardo sanchez]
      #64431 - Thu Jan 05 2006 04:57 PM

I love the optimism of the NHC with this last sentence....are we taking bets?


AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Clark]
      #64432 - Thu Jan 05 2006 05:06 PM

Although I agree with not having the list span two years due to confusion - I do believe maybe it is time to consider extending the season by two weeks. Time limits what I can research however I compiled a list of all storms in the past 10 seasons. During this time 7 storms, or 4.2% formed or remained into the month of December. During the same time 8 storms or 4.8% formed in the month of June. If the season was to end on December 14th there would be an out of season percentage of .5% in the past ten years booth before and after the season. There was only a single pre-season storm (Ana) during the past 10 years.

Any thoughts?


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Domino]
      #64433 - Thu Jan 05 2006 05:26 PM

Two weeks I wouldn't have a problem with, until the middle of December, sorta like how the EPacific season starts in the middle of the month of May. The relative frequencies of storms in each basin during the last half of May and first half of December are probably about equal as well, at least for the past 10-15 years. It'd only cover a few storms, I believe, but I think is more feasible and, to the general public, less confusing than having a season span two years. Sure, the calendar is merely a construct we use on a daily basis and could be changed if we really wanted to, but there's no real incentive to do that. Just IMO.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Frog
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: France
Re: Are we there yet? [Re: eduardo sanchez]
      #64434 - Thu Jan 05 2006 05:32 PM

Thank you for backing me Eduardo.

I think that when Zeta is over. What she'll be saying is not so much "arrrrrrgghhhhhh!" bur rather "No problemo!" , "Hasta la vista Baby! " and mostly..."I'LL BE BACK!" (Ring any bells ?!)

This might not be be the rise of the machines but it looks pretty much as THE RISE OF THE HURRICANES !

You sleep tight and remember ... EVERYTHING SEEMS IMPOSSIBLE .... Until it happens !

Edited by Frog (Thu Jan 05 2006 05:34 PM)


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Frog
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: France
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Clark]
      #64435 - Thu Jan 05 2006 06:52 PM

OK !

This is what I think...

What do you think the reaction would be of any "General Public' dude in Florida (or elsewhere) whose house is completely destroyed by a hurricane... "Oh! I almost made it... it was the last Hurricane In the 2005 season !" or ..."Damn it , I'm really a loser... it was the first Hurricane in the 2006 season" I rather belive he'd be muttering King Crimson's song Epitapth (In the court of the Crimson King) which dates from back in1969 and goes llike this...

The wall on which the prophets wrote
Is cracking at the seams.
Upon the instruments of death
The sunlight brightly gleams.
When every man is torn apart
With nightmares and with dreams,
Will no one lay the laurel wreath
When silence drowns the screams.

Confusion will be my epitaph.
As I crawl a cracked and broken path
If we make it we can all sit back
and laugh.
But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying,
Yes I fear tomorrow I'll be crying.

Between the iron gates of fate,
The seeds of time were sown,
And watered by the deeds of those
Who know and who are known;
Knowledge is a deadly friend
If no one sets the rules.
The fate of all mankind I see
Is in the hands of fools.

The wall on which the prophets wrote
Is cracking at the seams.
Upon the instruments of death
The sunlight brightly gleams.
When every man is torn apart
With nightmares and with dreams,
Will no one lay the laurel wreath
When silence drowns the screams.

Confusion will be my epitaph.
As I crawl a cracked and broken path
If we make it we can all sit back
and laugh.
But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying,
Yes I fear tomorrow I'll be crying.


So.... all what I want to say is this... they'll be confused anyways... no matter what the calendar is !

What I was talking about when I mentioned Vernal Equinox was the "Natural Cycle" of Hurricanes, it was not about what the "General Public" would feel. Mind you.... Hurricanes don't give a damN about the General Public. ... And so does the General Public... They only wish "'em damned hurrincanes will finally give us a break!!! "

So I suggest that we "cut down to size" like the Brits say, and separate what the General Public "think" (like the 3,000 missing in Nicaragua after the mudslide created by Hurricane Stan) and what regards Climatologic Events such as a "Hurricane Season".

Nothing personal.... Consider it the European way of seeing things.

Regards

--------------------
Nature Rules !!!
"... and crawling on the Planet's face... some insects, called the Human Race... Lost in Time, Lost in Space... and Meaning"
(The Rocky Horror Picture Show, Final Scene)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Frog]
      #64436 - Thu Jan 05 2006 08:24 PM

Unfortunately, things are a bit different over here...for better or for worse. Nature may know no bounds on hurricane season, particularly over in the NW Pacific, but here in the Atlantic these are much more the exception rather than the rule. The list of names is there if we need it; why extend the construct of a hurricane season to an entire year, or at least the vast majority of it, if it is not needed? We have the personnel to work these events, whether or not they threaten land. Trust me, on the off-chance something does impact land during the winter months, people will know about it and be prepared, whether or not we are in the hurricane season. The bigger question they will be asking is why this occurred out of the season; extending the season doesn't answer that at all and is taking the easy way out.

It is rare to see a storm such as Zeta, though not impossible, and in my view not worthy of extending the season just to account for 1 out of every 500 to 1000 storms. The odds are even lower for such storms that threaten land in a significant fashion; a more pressing concern is what they might do upon entering the midlatitudes, a task for those who work on extratropical transition and midlatitude weather forecasting. Nature is capable of throwing something our way, but why spend the extra money on personnel, equipment, and the like just to fully staff the hurricane center all year long when that money can be spent on research toward forecasting and understanding these things better?

I certainly understand the other viewpoint, but I come from a scientific background working in this field. Beyond scientific knowledge of these things, our most pressing concern is that the general public understand what is going on and not having ideas or facts misrepresented (on the off chance that they are). To me, it is infinitely much more worth it to study these storms than to extend the season to catch 1 storm in about a 1000 when the current infrastructure works just fine and does catch those storms without any changes needed. Essentially, extending the season in such a fashion would require a reallocation in resources and only create more confusion for the general public. The science and climatology is not the problem -- we do everything you already mention for all of these out-of-season storms -- it's the lack (in my view) of need to change something and spend money and time on such a process. The human aspect and the view of the general public has to be considered in such a process, and quite frankly it's simpler and more efficient to keep things the way they are. Might just be IMO, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: [Jaws music] [Re: Clark]
      #64438 - Thu Jan 05 2006 11:12 PM

extend the season? can't see what good it would do. even though they have happened between june and november (and almost in may and december), hurricane landfalls here in the u.s. of significance are usually between august and october. for the rest of the basin it isn't much different, though the caribbean is threatened for a slightly longer period. there are those freak incidents of caribbean hurricane impacts in january (1955) and march (1908), but usually the out-of-season hurricanes occur out to sea and threaten no one. this has been the case in every one in the recent active period aside from odette in 2003.
having a season that laps years makes sense in the southern hemisphere, as tropical cyclones in the south indian and pacific oceans occur during their summer-fall season which runs from late in one year well into the next... december through april, more or less. as a matter of fact, tropcial cyclone seasons down there are called 2004-05, 2005-06, for that reason... the same way we do basketball (and i think hockey) seasons here in the U.S. there are so few storms between january and april that no real predictable pattern or linkage to the semi-permanent weather features associated with the hurricane season before or after can be made out. as any one of our seasons is centered from summer-fall, going by calendar year to identify them makes sense. the vernal equinox is in a big scant activity dead zone and doesn't have any real significance or mark any real transition when it comes to north atlantic tropical cyclones. neither does january 1 for that matter, but it is the first day of a new year that most people recognize in the western world.
HF 0412z06january


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Not Logged MM
Unregistered




Re: [Jaws music] [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64440 - Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM

Hmm, what is that surge coming up from the equator east of SA....gained 5 degrees since yesterday, ITCZ spinoff? In January....

Anyway, looks like ZETA has about had it. Wonder if they will go back and undo the one advisory the other day where it was downgraded to TD...

As to the seasons....I recall back in the sixties the season used to run from something like the first Monday in June (or was it June 5?) to November 15. At some point it was extended to be June 1 to November 30, as it is now. There were a few years in the 60s when we had a number of storms that formed in early June, but I don't really remember any in late Nov after the 15th particularly, in those days. (There were a few, I am sure.).

Now...why did they do that? Just to round off the calendar I suppose, and because it was recognized that storms sometimes did occur early and late. Was it understood that there might be a storm now and then out of the 'season'? Yes..like the two storms (and others) that HF mentioned...I believe I read here once that there was even a CAT 3 in May, one year!

Having said all that...I think we are in a new (to us) paradigm.....and I can see, if the idea is for the season to encompass the time when it can be reasonably expected, say, one in ten years, there may be at least one storm. Therefore, May 15 to Dec 15 would make sense to me...anything outside of that would clearly be a rogue....of course, if you look at THIS year, and the storms after Dec 15......

Another thought, after this year, if we get a repeat of the late November/December formation hotspot in the EASTLANT, the TWC and others may need to revise their maps to show just that....a common or usual formation area for November and Dec is NW of the Cape Verde Islands! I can't wait to see the research results showing why that area spawned (so far) 4 storms this year ! Two of whoch affected Europe and Africa.

It really boggles my mind, as an old time hurricane hound, to write these words....this is truly an amazing, unique and "once in a lifetime" (maybe) historical and history bending time in the tropical cyclone 'business'!

MM


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Brazilian Blob [Re: Not Logged MM]
      #64441 - Fri Jan 06 2006 12:35 PM Attachment (743 downloads)

That is an interesting "Blob" drifting to the Northwest off the coast of Brazil. Looks like the center is about 2 degrees north of the Equator. I've been observing that area since yesterday morning and it appears to have continued and moved about that five degree mark since then.
Would anyone know the history of a system moving from the South Atlantic into the North Atlantic and developing in January?
Wow, there's a question!


Drew


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Brazilian Blob [Re: Randrew]
      #64442 - Fri Jan 06 2006 02:03 PM

systems generally don't form that close to the equator. there isn't any record of a storm crossing the equator either. planetary scale atmospheric motions don't promote that sort of thing.
zeta has gone from being a sheared, weak convection storm yesterday to a sheared, no convection depression today. almost surprised that it wasn't dropped to remnant low after how quickly epsilon was dismissed. the january environment has finally whittled away the last of the 2005 storms.
HF 1903z06january


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
2005 Hurricane Season Almost OVER! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64443 - Fri Jan 06 2006 03:28 PM

000
WTNT45 KNHC 061408
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS
MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM
NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME
30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE
TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE
BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS
ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FORECASTER STEWART
[Yeah Stewart!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

only looks like we will have 4-6 months of quite..... June 1st, 2006 not that far off.......

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Ok, everybody...big collective sigh! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #64444 - Fri Jan 06 2006 03:51 PM

From the final advis on Zeta...the final words of the discussion:

THIS IS THE National Hurricane Center SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Interesting Season [Re: Margie]
      #64445 - Fri Jan 06 2006 04:42 PM

Most named storms!
Longest lasting season!
Longest lived storm forming in December and continuing into the new year!
Longest lived January storm!
Largest accumulated cyclone energy of any season ever!

Yes I would say this has been quite an interesting season. That is if Zeta continues to be gone!


Drew
PS...I haven't gone into insured losses from all the damage to the US this season. We all know that set a record...just I have no final numbers yet.


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