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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Another South Atlantic TC??
      #64550 - Thu Feb 23 2006 02:50 PM Attachment (363 downloads)

Hello folks!
Happy off-season to you..
There are some very interesting developments taking place S of the Equator in the Atlantic Ocean. Could it be, the (correction "third") ever-recorded Tropical Cyclone to be observed down there is to take place so soon after the first, "Cyclone Catarina" - March, 2004?

For the shocking rarity of having those ledger-ed (should it be deemed so) twice in such brief geologic time span, this will likely have profound implications for the notoriety, as well as for Global climate change. I tried originally to post a visible image here but it was too large and tried to take over the screen area... I am in the process of finding new ones and microwave imagery of that region of the Globe, but I am having some difficulties...As soon as I am successful, I may update this. I am also attempting to find synoptic schemas for that region as well.

It is certainly 'tentatively' beginning to appear as though the "Atlantic Season", has an emergent property of being perennial phenomena! Already, such studies have been and continued to be plied: "Climate change scientists, working in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, recognize this as a feature they see in their climate model. In a world made warmer by increased greenhouse gasses, their model shows that this is one of the areas to watch in the future as there may indeed be more tropical storms for the South Atlantic."

The frequency of the typical tropical waves that we see traverse the N Atlantic during our tropical seasons do not have enough of the spatial-temporal significance out amid the areas between Africa and South America. This concept is intimated above. Rather, these types of events are likely developed by similar phenomena as Clark was covering, regarding trough interaction with residual disturbances.. In fact, they may even be born of the ends of troughs that situate over tropical SSTs; with perhaps truth plied to the notion that SST are indeed in a multiple decadal upward swing. This is a fascinating time to be tropical weather enthusiasts, as we seem to be on the verge of literally morphing an entire oceanic basin into a new paradigm of potentials.

John.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Mar 13 2006 03:33 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64553 - Thu Feb 23 2006 11:31 PM

well, it has the look. but there's a lot of shear ripping at it, and from what i can tell from the GFS that isn't going to change much. i've heard (but am not sure) that the GFS works very well in the southern hemisphere. so anyway i'd guess right off the bat that this will be a miss. NRL monterrey has a track on it, though... so nothing is impossible.
HF 0431z24february


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64556 - Fri Feb 24 2006 02:22 PM

Minor point of contention about this system. It would not be the second documented TC case in the South Atlantic. It would be the fourth. The first developed off the coast of Angola (Africa) in 1991. The second was in January of 2004, not very long before Catarina, and the third, of course, was Catarina.

There have been other interesting cases since the advent of the satellite era. Most of these look to be more of a subtropical or hybrid nature. I'll post more about this system when I get some time. For now it's off to work.

BTW...for any aspiring tropical mets (or more likely, a team of aspiring tropical mets) out there who are willing to pore over decades of geostationary satellite imagery, surface/upper air maps, model data, etc. from the south Atlantic, a thorough documentation and preliminary study of all tropical and hybrid south atlantic cyclones would make a fascinating and much-needed masters thesis. Given the puported link between GW and TC occurrence/severity, I doubt funding would be a problem. I'm sure there are many mets at NHC, and in Brazil who would be interested and willing to assist toward this end.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64557 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:32 PM

Where is this thing? I poured over all of the South Atlantic imagery I could find last night, and I could not locate anything that had "the look". Also, when did Catarina get named? I remember it, but at the time, I thought they just referred to it as "the apparent first ever recorded South Atlantic Hurricane"

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64558 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:42 PM

Quote:

Where is this thing? I poured over all of the South Atlantic imagery I could find last night, and I could not locate anything that had "the look". Also, when did Catarina get named? I remember it, but at the time, I thought they just referred to it as "the apparent first ever recorded South Atlantic Hurricane"



If I remember correctly, it is named Catarina due to the fact it hit the Brazillian state of "Catarina". Much like how the old cyclones were named. By where it struck and the year.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64559 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:49 PM

00:50Z February 25, 2006...96 days before the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

And we have an active Tropical System in the South Atlantic?!!
I hope that isn't a precursor to the North Atlantic Season!

As the rare development of Catarina in the South Atlantic last year was indeed another, rare, Tropical System event.

Current Worldwide? Tropical Systems:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Edited by danielw (Fri Feb 24 2006 07:51 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: danielw]
      #64560 - Fri Feb 24 2006 08:09 PM

Quote:

00:50Z February 25, 2006...96 days before the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.
And we have an active Tropical System in the South Atlantic?!!
I hope that isn't a precursor to the North Atlantic Season!
As the rare development of Catarina in the South Atlantic last year was indeed another, rare, Tropical System event.
Current Worldwide? Tropical Systems:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html




I don't think a connection can be made to activity in the South Atlantic and potential increased activity in the North Atlantic, but you never know.

Now that I've found this "activity" (thanks for the link - I tried NRL earlier and the imagery was not up but it is now)... I must say, it looks almost as organized as the light rain mist that spread across my front yard the other day. Of course, without a loop (there's no "animate" option on the NRL page for the system, at least not for me) it's hard to tell, but I don't see any hint of rotation at all.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64561 - Fri Feb 24 2006 09:02 PM

Quote:

Now that I've found this "activity" (thanks for the link - I tried NRL earlier and the imagery was not up but it is now)... I must say, it looks almost as organized as the light rain mist that spread across my front yard the other day. Of course, without a loop (there's no "animate" option on the NRL page for the system, at least not for me) it's hard to tell, but I don't see any hint of rotation at all.




The south Atlantic system pretty much ceased to exist as a TC earlier today.

Here's a brief history based on my recollection of the satellite imagery I looked at (caveat: I don't have the imagery handy so the dates may be off a little)...

The cyclone was a tiny system (within the TC community, such systems are often referred to as "midget" tropical cyclones). It formed a circulation back on the afternoon of the 20th (Monday) off the coast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Through the 21st, the cyclone moved SSW, paralleling the Brazilian coastline for about a day. Then on the 22nd, the cyclone stalled and began to move back to the NNE pretty much along the same path, perhaps a tad farther east. From there it turned northeast and then eastward on the 23rd/24th, gradually losing it's convection in an increasingly hostile environment.

I'lll post some vis and IR images/loops when I get home. Here's a link to one I made on Thursday.

(edited to change URL)
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Feb21_Vis.gif

Many thanks to Jason Kelley for the use of his web space. If anyone has about 100MB of space they can lend, then I'd be happy to post the rest of the vis and IR loops from the 20th thru the morning of the 24th.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL

Edited by Tony Cristaldi (Fri Feb 24 2006 11:57 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64562 - Fri Feb 24 2006 09:43 PM

Thanks! I was looking further north, closer to the equator. The NRL-identified system does not appear to be the same as the loop you have - or maybe it's just newest and the system has ceased to exist, as you point out.

Looking at the global map at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...MOSAIC_SCALE=15

there appears to be a fish spinner around 50S 25W ... and I think I see the TC around 25S 30W The south Pacific looks like a mess too. The north Atlantic is about as clear as I've seen it this century!



Quote:


The south Atlantic system pretty much ceased to exist as a TC earlier today.
Here's a brief history based on my recollection of the satellite imagery I looked at (caveat: I don't have the imagery handy so the dates may be off a little)...
The cyclone was a tiny system (within the TC community, such systems are often referred to as "midget" tropical cyclones). It formed a circulation back on the afternoon of the 20th (Monday) off the coast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Through the 21st, the cyclone moved SSW, paralleling the Brazilian coastline for about a day.





--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64564 - Sat Feb 25 2006 06:29 AM

So, Something popped up along the coast, another something popped up around 29S 40W, and there's more stuff out there? I suppose this would be the equivelant of late summer in the southern hemisphere, so if there are going to be tropical cyclones, now would be a good time to have them start popping up. if they're going to pop up.

interesting talkback on the wiki about southern atlantic cyclones, if anyone is willing to take a gander and set 'em right

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone

so, are we all looking at several things?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Links to satellite time lapses of the South Atlantic cyclone [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64565 - Sat Feb 25 2006 12:57 PM

Special thanks to Thomas Saevert, a weather enthusiast in Germany for lending me some web space.

http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb20_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb21_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb22_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb23_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb24_ir.gif

http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb20_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb21_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb22_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb23_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb24_vis.gif


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64566 - Sat Feb 25 2006 04:25 PM

My Apologies, I was not aware of that history - I shall be more careful in the future, to check the veracity of my sources. And, I like the bold use of text for documented, wherein we are presuming that such has not actually occurred. I can already see the issues that would need to be sorted out in attempting such thesis work; one of which would have to related to the modern understanding of the subtropical/hybrid model and that comparison to the truer deep layer tropical model, then applied to (as you intimated) mountains of old data... It may just be that these are more common across history - but then again, one would think that the stunning symmetry and gorgeous structure of the cyclone that struck Brazil last year, would have been noted before... There from, there is a question: Was that the first documented case of a system with "that" kind of structure - or is the answer to this question to subjective for a perfunctory review.. ?

In the mean time, the point "might" still stand that the frequency of these occurrences are definitely increasing ; agreed, there is vast potential for multiple disciplinary research facets and particularly, the increased frequency with GW is a growing concern for all oceanic basins.

Thanks for statistical correction!!

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Feb 25 2006 04:48 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64567 - Sat Feb 25 2006 05:35 PM

Nice flare up of convection for the last 6 hours, but probably won't be sustained. nothing definitive on the QuikSCAT. Of course one pass missed the area totally, and the other doesn't show anything certain. The waters in the area fairly warm, so, it's worth watching. The other good news, it's heading east, away from land, so shouldn't be a threat even if it does somehow develop.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64568 - Sat Feb 25 2006 06:37 PM

Quote:

Nice flare up of convection for the last 6 hours, but probably won't be sustained. nothing definitive on the QuikSCAT. Of course one pass missed the area totally, and the other doesn't show anything certain. The waters in the area fairly warm, so, it's worth watching. The other good news, it's heading east, away from land, so shouldn't be a threat even if it does somehow develop.




Believe it or not, the area you're looking at is actually a different one that what was tracked over the past several days. I'm trying to put together an animation of images around this area to see if there is any sort of circ beneath this new area of convection. MI data looks inconclusive at best. Edited to add: No sort of spin that I can make out - I think it's simply a jet divergence aided convective complex.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL


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Deep_Surge
Unregistered




Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64569 - Sat Feb 25 2006 10:51 PM

How come there is a INVEST in the Atlantic right now? There is not too much out there right now except a Low near another Low bringing a Blizzerd to Newfoundland. What's up with this system?

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StormHound
Weather Guru


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Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Deep_Surge]
      #64570 - Sun Feb 26 2006 12:02 AM

Great stuff, Tony! I hope you stick around for the season.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Deep_Surge]
      #64571 - Sun Feb 26 2006 12:29 AM

Quote:

How come there is a INVEST in the Atlantic right now? There is not too much out there right now except a Low near another Low bringing a Blizzerd to Newfoundland. What's up with this system?




The INVES is for the South Atlantic. It's Hurricane Season below the Equator. Actually I'm not really sure if they have a Real Hurricane Season.
There was a Tropical System in the South Atlantic earlier in the week. And it would appear that NRL is watching another area closely. With the continued
"INVES".


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HanKFranK
User


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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64572 - Sun Feb 26 2006 02:30 AM

many thanks to mr. cristaldi for putting up those animated gifs of our recent system. seems i'd only caught the tail end of it... there was more to the story than reckoned. a presumptuous eyeballing of the shear situation and i called it dead in the water; but the system wasn't emergent at that point, as it had already gone through most of its life cycle. based on the satelite running back to february 20th, i wouldn't be surprised if that system was holding down gale force winds at times between the 21st and 23rd. guess quickscat vectors never showed any since there hasn't been a big pile of hype on the feature. nevertheless, this little bugger has me wondering bigtime if we'll see more south atlantic activity in the future. 2004 seemed like some mad statistical fluke, but just two years later another convincing feature has popped up.
further north of where the system has come unbound that other convective feature is still flaring away, just like the one that spawned the little freak... as noted in a previous post. things are surely going mad when i'm looking for a tropical system off the coast of brazil in february. wacky doesn't begin to describe this.
HF 0730z26february


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: call me better informed... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64573 - Sun Feb 26 2006 02:51 AM

I noticed an increase in convection on an NRL loop earlier. Centered near 0.0S and 0.0W, just off the West African Coast. Earlier sat. signature in that same area died about 10-15W.
Latest signature had a much more intensive outflow pattern and colder cloud temperatures.

Maybe the South Atlantic can dissipate some of the global heat before the North Atlantic season opens. I know better than that. But here's to wishful thinking.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64574 - Sun Feb 26 2006 11:00 AM

Now that you mention it, the ITCZ does indeed look very active. The wave on the African Coast looks to have a very good circulation, good rotation, with an array of beautiful cirrus outflow bands. The SST's are certainly suffice to support a hurricane (I can't get a high resolution map of the area, but according to supertyphoon SST's around 30 C).

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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