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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64576 - Mon Feb 27 2006 12:53 AM

There's some really interesting work coming out on global heat transfer with regards to tropical cyclone activity -- the first work to actually attempt to quantify the impacts of tropical cyclones upon it -- but it's not quite published yet. Hopefully later this year, with at least a preview coming in late April. I'll let you all know about it then, just remind me.

The way the weather patterns across the N. Atlantic are going right now, however, I don't think we'll see an active early season. Stronger subtropical ridges during the winter/spring tend to result in a bit more upwelling/mixing across the regions that tend to favor development early in the season. We see weaker wintertime ridges particularly after weak El Nino years, such as that which lead into 2005. We've got the opposite situation going on now, however. Some folks down at the NHC & related groups are working on some research trying to quantify this for the AMS tropical conference in Monterey in April; once they've got more down on paper, I'll pass that along as well.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: call me better informed... [Re: Keith234]
      #64577 - Mon Feb 27 2006 12:19 PM

Quote:

Now that you mention it, the ITCZ does indeed look very active.



You should have been looking in January.

Here I am trying to learn about tropical weather, in January, and reading about July and January ocean surface streamline patterns, looking at sat images, very active ITCZ, and se'ly winds in the GOM, looked more like the July pattern, talk about confusing. In Feb I believe it started to look more like a winter pattern in the ATL. Since I've only been watching tropical weather since July last year (when I became completely facinated with it, before I even knew I'd stumbled into a historic season, and sad to say am still spending just about every single spare moment I have on it -- still finding out some very interesting things about Katrina), I don't have any history go to on, but I still keep seeing comments from seasoned folks how unusual some of the things are that we are seeing.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
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Re: call me better informed... [Re: Margie]
      #64579 - Mon Feb 27 2006 06:09 PM

The major differences in the Atlantic season to season are mainly the location of the ITCZ and the intenisty and number of disturbances coming off Africa. The majority of the north atlantic has a vast area of high pressure all year, so no matter what time of year it will look the same (unless you have a couple hurricanes barrelling on up:}). Yes, the jet is somewhat suppressed during the winter months, but that can be seen to some extent any time of the year. (Edit: the jet is generally stronger in winter, not suppressed. It is actually quite prevalent at upper-levels across the basin in the winter. Surface and upper-level features like jets are two entirely different ballgames. -Clark) The other main differences are the phases of the NAO, which govern the location and strength of the mid-latitude jet. That'll show up in satellite imagery as streets of cirrus clouds. Usually it's noticeable. Other than that it looks the same during the summer and winter.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Clark (Mon Feb 27 2006 06:43 PM)


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WOW
Unregistered




Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #64628 - Thu Mar 02 2006 05:02 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
interesting, but nothing [Re: Keith234]
      #64634 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:10 PM

there's a neat little feature near the yucatan today--appears to be a weak mid-level disturbance/surface convergence line flaring near east of an upper low in the diffluent region. high level winds are increasing, however, and the SSTs are only in the 70s, so it won't do anything. just getting into march, so the basin won't be primed for several months to come.
HF 0010z03march


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64635 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:24 PM

Thanks Hank, I thought I was on to something early and ugly.
Saw a few clouds in the Yucatan area earlier on TWC. The local TV Forecaster had a really nice color loop of the entire GOM...but No mention of the Yucatan Area.

I'm with you on the SSTs. They were running about 1.5C degrees above normal on the 21st of Feb, at buoy 42001 ( See Everything and Nothing Forum).

I'm here for the night. Will bring up the GOM sites and keep watch. Practice...right.

Off topic. 6 months post-'K', and things are still debris strewn in places 50-90 miles inland. I'm sure the areas South of here are still quite cluttered. The Coast and New Orleans managed to pull off a smaller Mardi Gras, but I believe it helped 'some' of them get back in step.

edit: 1108Z (12 hours ago), Quikscatter pass indicated possible rain contaminated, backing winds in the Eastern Semicircle. From 20 to 30 knots.
Winds of 50-60 knots were also indicated around the NE Quadrant perimeter.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 07:38 PM)


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MrSpock29
Unregistered




Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64636 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:53 PM

My question is, did any occur before the use of satellites?

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MrSpock29
Unregistered




Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: danielw]
      #64637 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:56 PM

Daniel, I seem to have lost/forgotten my password. How can I get a new one sent to me?
My user name should be MrSpock29.
Thanks.

Go to the Main Page, scroll down, and fill in your e-mail and other info.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 08:07 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: danielw]
      #64638 - Thu Mar 02 2006 08:04 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006 edited~danielw

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW EXTENDS
ALONG 29N83W 25N88W 19N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE N GULF
COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TWDAT&max=51


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Glad It's the 1st of March!! [Re: danielw]
      #64639 - Thu Mar 02 2006 08:47 PM

Not much convection indicated in this sat shot. AMS viewer, at 00Z, coldest cloud top that I found was -48.0C at 22.17N/ 85.71W.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/current_RB.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: MrSpock29]
      #64640 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:03 PM

Quote:

My question is, did any occur before the use of satellites?




Early research is indicating that the 2004 Hurricane may be the first Hurricane in the South Atlantic. I'm looking for an Official source rather than weather blogs.
This may belong in the Other Basins Forum.-ED?~danielw
http://www.sbmet.org.br/internas/publicacoes/informativo/2005_07/index_en.html

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/tcimages/Misc/

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 09:14 PM)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: GOM [Re: danielw]
      #64641 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:13 PM Attachment (279 downloads)

I am Just wondering what is the movement of the ITCZ during the year and it look as if it is on the move north at least over Africa.
Also that GOM System Has a chance to devlop but i would only give it about 5%.

edit~danielw
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
~emphasis added:danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 09:19 PM)


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MrSpock29
Unregistered




Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: danielw]
      #64642 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:18 PM

Thank you very much for the responses and links, they are very interesting. I have bookmarked them to study them in better detail later.
Kind of brings me back to a met class I had in college, but the topic was only touched on briefly. That class was actually a couple years ahead of the 1991 system-a case of bad timing I guess.


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64645 - Thu Mar 02 2006 10:50 PM

Max Mayfield had a talk that was broadcast live on Hurricanetrack.com this evening. A couple very interesting comments he made stuck out in my mind:


- There may be a 28th "named" storm after analysis.
- Emily will "very likely" be upgraded to a cat 5

I wonder which system he was alluding to as possibly being upgraded to the 28th tropical storm of the season....?????

--Lou


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64646 - Thu Mar 02 2006 11:32 PM

wow, I guess post-season analysis might add to the total. It will be interesting to see which one that was. This is one reason I think there may have been other cyclones in the S.Atlantic, as I am not sure that basin gets the scrutiny our basin does.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64647 - Fri Mar 03 2006 08:20 AM

Quote:

Max Mayfield had a talk that was broadcast live on Hurricanetrack.com this evening. A couple very interesting comments he made stuck out in my mind:

- There may be a 28th "named" storm after analysis.
- Emily will "very likely" be upgraded to a cat 5

I wonder which system he was alluding to as possibly being upgraded to the 28th tropical storm of the season....?????

--Lou



Too bad I missed it. I never know when those things are occuring (hey I don't even watch tv).

That would have to be subtropical depression 22. Speaking of which, is TD 19 the shortest post TC report on record? Just curious.

I saw that Emily's Cat 4 was 'flagged' with an asterisk on a set of slides talking about the 2005 season, so I assumed they were definitely going to upgrade. I'm glad. Emily was the first TC I watched from beginning to end and at the time I remember being disappointed that none of the advisories upgraded to a five based on the satellite presentation, which was just beautiful (and I wonder now how I would have even known that after only one week of watching hurricanes online); of course now I know there is a lot of other data that goes into determining intensity and that satellite presentation can only give a rough estimate (still, why in the sam hill they flew into Wilma at the 850mb level that first time is beyond me).

---

Just wondered...gee, what will they name it? The next letter was already taken. That poses an interesting problem. Another Greek name? Another bizarre note to the 2005 season. Well, at least in that case the season will still have run from A to Z (Mother Nature couldn't let that opportunity for literary allusion pass by).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Mar 03 2006 08:46 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64648 - Fri Mar 03 2006 12:12 PM

I had heard about both of those about a week ago, but now that the cat is out of the bag somewhat I'll run with it. It's likely that the additional storm is an entirely new one to the database. It'll be another of the subtropical-->tropical conversions and have a short lifespan (perhaps as short as 12hr). I don't know if it is the one that we were looking at pretty hard back around the time of the others, but that is the time frame we are looking at here.

Emily's upgrade is and always has been a borderline call, one which they've wavered on for some time. Initially, it looked like it would happen; then, it didn't look so likely. Now, it looks pretty likely once again. There is a *lot* of evidence supporting the current intensity of 155mph/cat. 4, whereas there is one observation out of thousands that supports the cat. 5 designation with the caveat that parts of the storm (despite having the pretty accurate SFMR data) were not well-sampled enough to conclude that those cat. 5 winds did not exist for a span of several hours within Emily. Based off of that, it's likely you'll see an upgrade -- but don't be surprised if it doesn't end up coming.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: Clark]
      #64650 - Fri Mar 03 2006 12:49 PM

Quote:

It's likely that the additional storm is an entirely new one to the database. It'll be another of the subtropical-->tropical conversions and have a short lifespan (perhaps as short as 12hr).



I don't even remember that one. Could there have been one day last autumn when I didn't spend a lot of time at the computer.

Quote:

Emily's upgrade...there is one observation out of thousands that supports the cat. 5 designation



Well the way it seems to work is that even if there is only one obs, that is all they need. Different from the public perception of the max winds for certain.

Hey Clark I have (yet) another idea for one of your learning series blogs...discussion of transport of winds down past the boundary layer to the surface (what factors are involved, why this is so different from hurricane to hurricane and at different times in the same hurricane) and different methods for determining surface winds...and accuracy of those determinations.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Deep_Surge
Unregistered




Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64655 - Fri Mar 03 2006 05:13 PM

I watched that thing on Hurricane track as well and I just found out 1 minute before the video live stream began. It was pretty good and those radar loops of Katrina looked great. He talked about that hurricane most of the time.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
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Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: WOW]
      #64656 - Fri Mar 03 2006 09:39 PM

Where may I locate these "Graveyard" posts?

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