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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: ltpat228]
      #64658 - Fri Mar 03 2006 11:57 PM

ltpat--if it isn't on your list of forums, it must not be accessible to normal users. i wouldn't recommend going there, as the music is very annoying.
as for storm 28... geez, neat. wonder which one it was? could be that system in late august that looked 'alive' ahead of developing lee. rabbit posted an interesting image of that one a while back.
the post-subtropical depression 22 feature which hovered off of new england might have a sliver of a chance at a secondary subtropical storm.
can't think of anything else off the top of my head. unless they want to give tropical depression 10 an upgrade. the report has already been issued, so i doubt it will get any changes.
clark, maybe you know something i don't?
HF 0457z04march
researched addendum:
checked gary padgett's monthly analyses, noticed a couple of other potential features which may get tagged and push the total to 28th. low probability on all. in early january a system that looked slightly subtropical existed for a couple of days in the central atlantic. around mid-april a coastal low off hatteras temporarily had a subtropical appearance as well. there was a well-defined disturbance near jamaica in late may that turned out to be of no consequence. what i had forgotten and should have remembered was what bastardi called the 'energizer bunny.' a tropical disturbance closed off and developed a tropical cyclone profile as it approached the outer banks, and actually looked like a weak tropical system as it moved northward along the mid atlantic coast in late june. no evidence it produced any gale force winds, though. of all the systems covered thus far, the late august system around lee has the most convincing evidence that it was briefly a tropical storm.
0510z04march

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Mar 04 2006 12:11 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64660 - Sat Mar 04 2006 11:57 AM

mentioning of subtd22 as upgrade to ts; it looks very doubtful to me since the post-analysis is already complete

an interesting image too, go to post-analysys for tropical storm delta, and look at the satellite image on the last page

also, a satellite archive going back to 1983
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/gibbs/gibbs.html


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64661 - Sat Mar 04 2006 01:32 PM

From what Pasch told me, I'm inclined to believe it's the feature we were tracking in the immediate wake of Epsilon. I do know that he said it was another of those types of storms around the same time as Delta and Epsilon and I feel that it is the best candidate. Talking around the 10th of December, give or take a few days, with only a marginal life cycle -- 12 hours or so.

There's more on this feature in the Epsilon thread at http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=64061&an=0&page=0#64061 -- look in the vicinity of post #100 & beyond in that thread. I remember noting that it made it about 85% of the way to classification with about a 12 hour span of doing something way back in early December, leading me to believe that this is the feature the guys at the NHC are talking about.

If Pasch hadn'tve said another tropical transition feature around the same time as Delta and Epsilon, I would've guessed the late June feature along the east coast from Cape Hatteras to DC. It may well have been a subtropical depression, but I don't imagine the NHC is going to fret too much over a depression as opposed to a storm. Just my hunch, though.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
5N 5E? [Re: Clark]
      #64662 - Sun Mar 05 2006 05:07 AM Attachment (337 downloads)

I think I'm hallucinating but if Ididn't know any better I'd say there's something interesting there. File is attached of the
area in question.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.

Edited by Bloodstar (Sun Mar 05 2006 05:08 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 5N 5E? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64664 - Sun Mar 05 2006 09:52 AM

Quote:

I think I'm hallucinating but if Ididn't know any better I'd say there's something interesting there. -Mark



Hey, you haven't been into the special brownies, have you?

Just a little rain, just a little wind.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: 5N 5E? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64665 - Sun Mar 05 2006 02:59 PM

Think you are onto something there, Blood. Fascinating.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: 5N 5E? [Re: MapMaster]
      #64666 - Sun Mar 05 2006 08:34 PM

Quote:

Think you are onto something there, Blood.




I see the same thing!


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 5N 5E? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64667 - Mon Mar 06 2006 04:59 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Think you are onto something there, Blood.




I see the same thing!




Happily, I was just seeing artefacts. I probably should have added some more information, but best I can tell Climatology says no way in heck something would develop there. it looked like something with a possible spin/twist and some clustering of storms that had been there at least 12 hours previously, by this afternoon, the complex was falling apart. and now it looks like an upper level low that had managed to get a little convection firing near the center.

a storm developing below 5 degrees latitude is extremely... rare. the storms were also very close to land, so any possibility of development could only happen from something that was stationary.

so... nothing to see, move along.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
questions for the experts [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64668 - Mon Mar 06 2006 10:38 AM

while looking over the past 13 years of daily weather for central florida, i discovered something interesting that i am wondering about, if it may have been a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the central atlantic?

February 25 1993
February 26 1993
February 27 1993

also, months ago, there was talk of subtropical storms in 1992 and 1994
these you can zoom in on and loop also (the day after the year is the day OF the year, you can loop by changing the time, available every three hours)
both are in the Gulf
October 1992 IR October 1992 VIS
October 1994 VIS October 1994 IR

it is interesing to note that the HPC does list the latter as a subtropical storm


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: questions for the experts [Re: Rabbit]
      #64672 - Mon Mar 06 2006 04:25 PM

The 1993 feature definitely looks frontal/extratropical to me. Note how it is connected to the frontal zone, particularly in the second of the three images. Without having any other data off-hand, I'd say that's an extratropical cyclone that may have tried to become subtropical but probably didn't get there.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
For what's it's worth Department [Re: Clark]
      #64673 - Mon Mar 06 2006 07:56 PM

Checking the regional Fire Weather for the SE US. I came across this tidbit from the Friday, March 3rd forecast.

"7. Tropical Weather Summary.
No Activity. With 3 months th the official start of the 2006 Hurricane season, tropical Atlantic temperatures currently range 0.5 to 1.5 degrees above average. Surface Caribbean water temperatures are now at the threshold temperature of 80 degrees, with only slight above average anomalies."

http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/outlooks/DailyWxSummaryandOutlook.pdf
(data is time sensitive, and may be found on the 3rd page of the PDF, under section "7-Tropical Weather Summary".~danielw)

*Note: the degree anomaly for the tropical Atlantic doesn't indicate C or F. As C is normally used to describe these parameters, I'm assuming the 0.5 to 1.5 degree anomaly to be in Celcius. I will attempt to isolate a better data source.~danielw
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/atlsst_lastweek.shtml

Using today's (6MAR06) SST analysis from NLMOC. The Caribbean (South of 25.0N), is at or above 26C or 79F.
The GOM has a much broader range. From 17C (63F) in the Cedar Key area, to a high of 26C (79F) in the Yucatan Channel/ GOM Loop Current area. That area is currently, south of 25.0N and between 84.5 and 88.5W.
(following link gives updated SSTs)~danielw
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Oceans/Gulf_Stream/gulf02.gif

Edited by danielw (Mon Mar 06 2006 09:01 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
2011 list [Re: danielw]
      #64678 - Wed Mar 08 2006 01:28 PM

far as i know, later this month at the wmo conference or in early april the 2005 names of infamy will be stricken from the list and replaced. the five majors that hit the u.s./mexico are almost surely gone--stan being the potential but uncertain sixth. also heard of a move to create some sort of alternate list for over-21 storms as opposed to the greek alphabet. 2005 may have been the one and only time we'll see it used.
the onion has an interesting spoof on NHC attempts to deal with naming all the hurricanes.
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/45796
later.
HF 1828z08march

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Mar 08 2006 01:29 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 2011 list [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64679 - Wed Mar 08 2006 03:01 PM

Quote:

the onion has an interesting spoof on NHC attempts to deal with naming all the hurricanes.
later.
HF 1828z08march




I put that link in the comedy forum. :-)

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lonny307
Unregistered




Re: La Nina [Re: Margie]
      #64681 - Thu Mar 09 2006 11:35 AM

Still in a weak La nina. At least through June:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: La Nina [Re: lonny307]
      #64690 - Sun Mar 12 2006 05:46 PM

I cant believe theres been no Post in 3 days well look like theres a nic bermuda high that should warm some of the water a little well happy postings.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: La Nina [Re: NONAME]
      #64691 - Sun Mar 12 2006 05:56 PM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: La Nina [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #64692 - Sun Mar 12 2006 07:32 PM

Quote:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf



Meteorology has more statistics than baseball.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: La Nina [Re: Margie]
      #64694 - Sun Mar 12 2006 09:52 PM

Quote:

Meteorology has more statistics than baseball.




That link does not work.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
emily post-analysis [Re: ltpat228]
      #64695 - Mon Mar 13 2006 12:34 PM

they did make the expected change to emily, having it tipped up to a category 5 during one advisory cycle for early on july 17. given the evidence it isn't exactly a dead-ringer, but not terribly unlikely either. i wouldn't say emily being a cat 5 was more likely than delta having been a hurricane, though.
still, as the season records stand, that's now four category 5 hurricanes. of them emily was clearly the least destructive--its yucatan hit wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. coming right on the heels of precocious Dennis, it wasn't very reassuring for the direction the season was taking, either.
to put the number of fives we had last year in perspective, the quartet of emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma happened over a three month period, while the previous four cat 5s were Ivan, 2004, isabel, 2003, mitch, 1998, and Andrew, 1992 over a 13 year period.
HF 1734z13march


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: emily post-analysis [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64696 - Mon Mar 13 2006 01:14 PM

You beat me to it.

Well that makes me happy that they upgraded her, because Emily did look so perfectly formed for that short time south of Cuba.

It was interesting they didn't go into that strange weakening phase prior to the Yucatan landfall, that was so weird: "Emily began to slowly weaken...this time in the absence of concentric eyewalls but also without any obvious external synoptic forcing." Remember the storm structure just went splat! all of a sudden, like two left feet or something.

HF that really does put things in perspective. Not having followed hurricanes very long, I didn't realize. Hard to do, but your statement makes the 2005 season even more dramatic, in retrospect.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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