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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Deep Surge
Unregistered




Re: emily post-analysis [Re: Margie]
      #64697 - Mon Mar 13 2006 11:28 PM

Emily is now a CAT5 which is amazing. A new record to add: Hurricane Emily was the earlyest CAT5 hurricane ever in the atlantic ocean. When will the records stop being broken? There was a huge tornado outbreak 2 days ago and I think the weather is going to turn a dark corner this year unlike anything we've seen.

I can assure you that if you take a big enough slice of time, nothing becomes unlike anything we've seen. The odd-century we have of quality weather records makes for lots of dark corners, but really nothing we shouldn't expect.--HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Mar 15 2006 12:32 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
surprise [Re: Deep Surge]
      #64698 - Wed Mar 15 2006 05:01 PM

I've been distracted (planning a serious last-minute road trip), and haven't been looking at the sat images every day. So Jeff Masters got the jump on me with this one:

"The season's second South Atlantic tropical/sub-tropical disturbance has formed off of the coast of Brazil today. The disturbance formed from the remains of a cold-core low, which sat over warm waters of 27 degrees C long enough to start acquiring tropical characteristics. We saw this same behavior this past hurricane season with the Greek storms Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta. The disturbance is mostly just a swirl of low clouds, but has seen two bursts of deep convection today. The most recent burst of convection, seen in the satellite photo below, formed in a spiral band well removed from the center. Early this morning, a more impressive burst of deep convection formed near the storm's center, but was quickly ripped away by strong westerly upper-level winds. These strong winds are expected to continue to bring high levels of wind shear over the disturbance over the next few days, and likely keep it from forming into a tropical depression. The system is expected to move slowly southwest, parallel to the Brazilian coast, and get absorbed into a frontal system to the south by Friday. No threat to land is likely, and this storm is mostly just of academic interest."

Check it out:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Right now you can only see it on the IR but it'll be on the vis tomorrow, or you can look at this morning's from Jeff's blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: surprise [Re: Margie]
      #64699 - Wed Mar 15 2006 10:25 PM

Been lurking since the end of the season but neede to jump in to ask the mods a question - - Is there any historical correllation between these south Atlantic systems, SST's and what we can expect for the upcoming season?? Just want to know if we need to double up on supplies for this year

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: surprise [Re: Wingman51]
      #64700 - Thu Mar 16 2006 12:23 AM

Nah, there have been so few S. Atlantic tropical cyclone/quasi-TC features that no sound statistical correlations can be drawn between that and SSTs and tropical cyclone frequency up here.

Just on a random "parallel," my guess is that things are setting up a little similar to 2004, but what happens in March only has a small impact upon what happens in June-November. But really, SSTs are below average across much of the basin, so it's really folly to say what's going to happen. Climate science is beyond my grasp and I'm not much of a firm believer in it, so I'll leave any further discussion to those more familiar with it.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: surprise [Re: Clark]
      #64701 - Thu Mar 16 2006 06:17 PM

all that i can add is that in recent winters we've seen extensive patches of sub-normal atlantic SSTs (probably not as extensive as this winter's, however) and they have given way to generally above normal SSTs by the following summer. if i had to guess at the upcoming year's pattern... just based on trends from SSTs in the western hemisphere, i'd guess at something like '96 or '98 for the '06 season.
HF 2317z16march


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: surprise [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64702 - Thu Mar 16 2006 08:25 PM

1996 had 13 storms; 1998 had 14 stoms. That's less than 2005's 27.
13 is less than 27? get out of here! heh. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Mar 16 2006 10:31 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
FYI guys... [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64705 - Fri Mar 17 2006 03:30 PM

NHC has put out four of the five post-analyses that were due. Wording in the report on Zeta indicates that a 28th system will not appear in the analysis. There were not substantive changes to Franklin or Harvey (though Harvey's post-tropical track was extended quite a bit), though Rita had a couple of modifications (landfall intensity, and peak intensity/min pressure were altered a bit), and Zeta had its genesis tracked back six hours and a short post-tropical track appended. Beta is the only one left, now. And the track map...
HF 2029z17march
(Erin Go Bragh, by the way.)

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Mar 18 2006 08:06 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64711 - Sun Mar 19 2006 05:24 AM

Looks like folks down under are in for quite a battering, especially those along the QLD coast from Cairns to Bowen., Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified rapidly during the past 10 hours, with central pressure dropping from 950mb to a current 925mb. The cyclone is a Category 4 on the Australian Scale, with gusts to 280 kmh. However, larry is getting stronger, and will likely reach Category 5 with gusts over 300 kmh. Certainly gonna be a devastating impact wherever it moves onshore.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: Rich B]
      #64719 - Sun Mar 19 2006 06:36 PM

Indeed! For those who are interested:




...or:

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR212.20060319200550.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/storm/dvor-nh26.GIF


Will do statistics as they are available - unless any privy individuals have such that they may disseminate??

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Mar 19 2006 06:38 PM)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64721 - Sun Mar 19 2006 09:17 PM

Any one know how far (or near...ha ha) Tahiti is to the current hurricanes by Australia.
eyeballing it about 3000 miles to queensland, australia -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Mar 20 2006 03:26 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: ltpat228]
      #64724 - Mon Mar 20 2006 03:28 AM

australia's rating system seems quite a bit different than ours, going to cat 5 for a 120mph cyclone. then again, that might be 10-min averaged winds or something, which would be a good deal stronger than 1-min avg winds of that speed.
fortunately that part of the country is sparsely populated.
HF 0828z20march


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cocoabeach
Unregistered




Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64725 - Mon Mar 20 2006 11:23 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

whats going on up north Novia Scotia area?
is that a low pressure?
Drop a bunch of snow you think?


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64727 - Mon Mar 20 2006 08:49 PM

Quote:

australia's rating system seems quite a bit different than ours, going to cat 5 for a 120mph cyclone. then again, that might be 10-min averaged winds or something, which would be a good deal stronger than 1-min avg winds of that speed.
fortunately that part of the country is sparsely populated.
HF 0828z20march




I did a bit of looking because I was curious about this as well, HankFrank. Here's a link I found:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/windstr.shtml


CATEGORY 5
Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.
A Category 5 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts of more than 280 km/h.
These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).

Using my trusty web calculator, 280 km/h is roughly 175 mph, which is beyond "minimal" Cat 5, and is Katrina-like on the SSHS.

Now, the page says "strongest" winds, so maybe it involves gusts.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: Hugh]
      #64728 - Mon Mar 20 2006 10:22 PM

The strongest winds do refer to gusts, Hugh.

Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground said that Larry had 118 mph sustained winds at landfall. How 118 mph sustained winds generate 175 mph gusts, I dont know. Is that normal or is something way off here?


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Myles]
      #64730 - Tue Mar 21 2006 07:38 AM

OK -- -- Major spring storm in Central US, Tornado breakout, Typhoon in Australia - - And Accuweather on network TV stating that the Northeast is staring "down the barrel of a gun" for this season. They are quoting a statistic that average SST's are running at 12 degrees above normal and therefore we are in for a "very bad" season, and it wasn't even "doom and gloom" Joe? Any merit or anything new in this prediction over Dr. Gray analysis? :?:

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Wingman51]
      #64731 - Tue Mar 21 2006 01:44 PM

i'll go check that out later... they've got three video links up on their homepage. actually saw an excerpt of a bastardi interview on fox last night, not sure under what context as it was a fleeting sort of thing.
i will say this. Accuweather called the central gulf coast last year and that prediction came through in a really awful fashion. getting the northeast right would be a much greater achievement as the probability of a hit up there is low in any given year, but a major event when it does happen. i was already thinking this would be an east coast year (since the la nina phase is kicked in and gulf years don't usually run back to back), so it doesn't seem too farfetched to me.
HF 1844z21march

the reports say that bastardi thinks we're in a part of a cycle that will produce a major hit on the northeast in the next five years or so. the 'it could happen this year' is more of a hook for the story. statistically speaking the five year window isn't a bad bet, though calling a particular year for the northeast is a longshot.
-HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Mar 21 2006 05:03 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64732 - Tue Mar 21 2006 06:00 PM

The reports changed quite substantially today. The previous reports said that it would happen this year; sensing the flak they were taking within the community, everything today has said within 5 years.

The chart that they are using as their main evidence is substantially flawed. I could point them all out to everyone, but I think you all can find them without any intervention: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=nehurr4

There is no real scientific basis for their correlations or their predictions; the only thing they are successfully able to do with it is to throw it up against the wall and seeing if it will stick.

This is the full article -- note no mention of "within 5 years" for the NE US -- http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=nehurr

I'm splitting hairs here now, but if they wanted something to be taken seriously, it'd help if they got the number of storms right for 2005 (in the article they list 26 name storms and 14 hurricanes...there were 27 hurricanes: "According to Accuweather.com, the 2006 tropical storm season will still be more active than normal, but less active than last year, with fewer storms than 2005's record 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes.").

In reality, they aren't saying a whole lot with their "announcement."

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: hollywood,florida 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Clark]
      #64733 - Tue Mar 21 2006 07:56 PM

Do you all remember what most said at this time last year?"2005 will be above normal but not as bad as 2004".Sound familiar???

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64734 - Wed Mar 22 2006 12:30 AM

the chart with the el nino events and hurricane positions is a bit off. i'd noticed that the ENSO periods were sometimes a little off and seemed cherry-picked (i.e., where's the extended 1991-94 event? bob wouldn't fit well into the pattern). finding a 'climatology' for new england storms is a real task, as the period of reliable records you'd need to analyze in-season patterns for such strikes is short and only covers events back to the middle of last century. it's also possible for a fall synoptic setup that favors a strike up there to simply 'miss' the hurricanes.. 2003 gives a good example, with longtracker isabel moving inland in north carolina still charging northwest, then baroclinically induced juan less than two weeks later speeding due north into nova scotia. a slightly different timing or synoptic setup of either storm could have produced a significant hurricane hit in the northeast.
in the near term, recent running averages of SOI have been strongly positive, so the idea that la nina will dominate the circulation regime during the coming summer is a sound one. in the last decade or so, that has been coupled with a well-established trough near the northeast u.s. that has served to cause a high number of recurvatures or allowed glancing hits to the north carolina coast. if i had to throw money down it would be for more of the same--longtrackers and mostly recurvatures.
HF 0530z22march


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64735 - Wed Mar 22 2006 08:09 AM

Thanks for the insight and the rational analysis - - I also noticed the "recurvature" of the comments from "this year" to "within the next 5 years" - - that actually happened between 2 AM TV appearences by on of the "experts" - - on GMA it was this year, on FAX later in the morning, it was within the next 5 years. In his defense, neither of the appearances included "doom and Gloom" Joe.

Looking at what has been posted here since the end of last season, and the current features, I tend to agree with the analysis that favors the East coast pattern which would be a blessing to our friends in the Gulf region. My concern here in Fl is that soo many people did not take Wilma seriously last year that we may again be facing a time of apathy concerning any major event for FL. That really amazes me - - here in St. Cloud, one only has to look at the stumps of ancient trees and the abundance of "blue roofs" to remember Charlie, Frances and Jeanne. Oh well - - season still 2 months away but never too early to begin preparations.


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