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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64736 - Wed Mar 22 2006 04:28 PM

It's a very subtle distinction within the synoptic pattern that leads to an impact to New England as opposed to the Canadian Maritimes...essentially, if you shift everything a little bit further west and make it just a touch weaker, you come pretty close to explaining it. Further back in time, there's not a whole lot different between the two. There is a little bit of skill with climate indices in the medium and medium-long term (30 to about 75 days) with the resultant synoptic patterns as well as one month's worth of activity...plus some hints in the tracks (about half are deep tropics storms that directly impact the NE; the other half come up through the US or along the coastline from the Gulf or NW Caribbean) but not a whole lot otherwise and almost assuredly nothing on these long time scales.

A bit of statistics: in the period 1970-2003, there were only 22 storms to impact New England. It's hard to draw a lot of statistically significant correlations with that short of a data set as the variance in the synoptic and climatic patterns is relatively large. It can be done, but it's not a signal like the Accuweather charts are showing.

For instance, with the chart posted a few posts up...why are 1991 and 1992 missing? 1991 had a significant impact to the NE US -- exactly what they are predicting! -- with Hurricane Bob, while 1992 had a significant impact to Florida and the Gulf with Hurricane Andrew. That's exactly the opposite of what they are trying to show here. Another case: 2004 had a lot of East Coast/Gulf impacts, but none of those are mentioned. Another: 1998 had Hurricane Bonnie, a 95kt hurricane at landfall, impact North Carolina pretty substantially. It's not included, but weaker storms such as Earl and Erin are -- why? It's just an example of manipulating the statistics. HF already touched on some of the ENSO signals being off, so I won't go further on that point.

AccuWeather also mentioned -- on national TV this time -- that SSTs were 12F over normal in some regions of the Atlantic today. The key is understanding that it that it is confined to a very, very small region of the NW Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml), where an eddy off of the loop current has likely contributed to a short-lived warm anomaly this season. Further, it's a difference over last year, where the NW Gulf was a couple of degrees (Celcius) below average at this time as a result of a cooler synoptic pattern across the region. As compared to climatology, almost all of the rest of the basin is right about at average right now. So, while their statement is technically correct, it requires a lot of clarification and is generally misleading so as to support the point that they are trying to make.

Just my two cents.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
New England As A Topic..? [Re: Clark]
      #64747 - Thu Mar 23 2006 07:07 PM

Why all this yapping about NE?
Florida equals tropics equals hurricanes.
Period.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64750 - Thu Mar 23 2006 09:02 PM

well pat, aside from florida there are seventeen other states on with coastlines on the gulf and atlantic that get hit sometimes, too. believe it or not, that happened just last year in louisiana.
trust me, new england is a big topic. there's a lot of population and infrastructure up there that is vulnerable in ways that a lot of more southern coastlines aren't, and a hit up there is always a big-ticket item. they are overdue.
HF 0201z24march


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64752 - Thu Mar 23 2006 09:19 PM

The Wall Street Journal talked about insurance companies dropping policy holders on Cape Cod, Rhode Island and 8 counties in NY because of the potential risk. It also mentioned that rates were going up in 49 states because the reinsurers are charging the insurance companies more due to the increase in storms and intensities.

Everyone pays.


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64753 - Fri Mar 24 2006 01:17 AM

I agree Pat. Sorry, HF...I understand the NE is past due.....but in the SE we will be the first to know!

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64754 - Fri Mar 24 2006 08:00 AM

Quote:

well pat, aside from florida there are seventeen other states on with coastlines on the gulf and atlantic that get hit sometimes, too. believe it or not, that happened just last year in louisiana.
HF 0201z24march




After Andrew, officials stated we'd get a hurricane of that magnitude once every 100 years. We all thought we'd endured the Big One in our life time...our kids and grand children, too. 2004 terrifically messed us up...then of course, there was Katrina.

In my opinion, no one is "overdue" for a catastrophic visit from Mother Nature.

New England simply doesn't play in the overall picture of probabilites for a massive tropical hurricane. NE is taking off from my area...my state...worrying and charging (over charging???) home owners for something which has yet to occur.......


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64755 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:29 AM

pat, there's a recurrence interval for every section of coast for the u.s. new england, again, gets hit every 15-20 years on average. in the last quarter century hurricanes bob and gloria hit up there at cat 2--both had been stronger and were moving quickly, so their impact was significant. further back, hurricane donna hit the area still at a potent 2, hurricane carol put 10 feet of water in downtown providence in 1954, and you may have heard of a little hurricane in 1938 which ran over long island, flooded the whole coast even more, had measured wind speeds over 120mph and gusts over 180, and killed more than 600 people? there were others back in the 19th century not very unlike these listed (though the '38 hurricane might be the strongest of the lot).
a hurricane of that magnitude running over new england has south-facing bays it can drive surges into, with huge populations in low-lying areas, construction designed to handle factors other than hurricane winds, and if it puts down much rain, an older, post-glacial surface that generates a ton of runoff and can cause massive flooding much more easily than the sandy coastal plains along southern coasts.
did i mention that a big one coming near new york city could theoretically put a surge into the tunnels and subways in and around the city, shatter a ton of high-rise glass, and otherwise cripple the city? naw, i'd say those insurance guys are covering their butts.
HF 1428z24march


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64756 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:40 AM

The insurance guys are running scared now. With $56 billion in insurable losses in 2005, they're going to limit their exposure. Don't be surprised if The Wall Street Journal article I mentioned before is 100% correct.

I can also see insurers in the NE exclude hurricane damage on most policies.

I live in a homeowners association (delray Beach, FL) our only common buildings are a guard house and a fitness center. We were dropped and have to go to Citizien's Insurance with a very limited coverage. I hope USAA doesn't drop me this year.


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64757 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:41 AM

Although Florida is in the cross-hairs and more likely to receive a direct hit from a hurricane, a strike in New England from even a low cat 3 would have a major effect. This is record to the 1938 hurricane that hit Connecticut http://www.southstation.org/hurr1.htm . The Unisys weather site says it was extratropical but it still twisted train tracks and caused major flooding and destroyed many homes.
Please think about the fact that there are other areas that could be affected by hurricanes and the loss of life could be greater than in your area. Trying to get people in those areas aware of the possiblity could save lives.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: Speaking of things to the north [Re: Lisa NC]
      #64758 - Fri Mar 24 2006 10:44 AM

What's up at 40N/40W??

MM


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Speaking of things to the north [Re: MapMaster]
      #64759 - Fri Mar 24 2006 03:56 PM

Looks like a cold coreish deep low. Also appears to be heading off to the ENE so won't have time to transition to a tropical or sub tropical storm, though phase analysis does have it briefly warmcore (if not partially warmcore alread) for the next 24 - 36 hours.

Unless something dramatic and unexpected happens, nothing much to worry about.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Clark]
      #64764 - Fri Mar 24 2006 11:36 PM

As Clark mentioned. There is some debate on the SST anomaly in the GOM. I have seen several print articles with different anomalies listed. The 12 dgeree anomaly is the highest one that I've seen thus far.

I use Dr Nan Walker's (Project Director) site at LSU for my GOM SST information.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/home/
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/image_archives/

This site lags a few days behind the Navy and NOAA, due to workdays and data delay.
The most current map for this month is the 15th of March, 2006.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2006-03/g12%2E060315%2Ecomp%2Esstsshcl%2Egif

Compare with the same calendar week from last year.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-03/g12%2E050313%2Ecomp%2Esstsshcl%2Egif
Note: the numbers shown on the contour intervals, are Sea Surface Height anomaly in centimeters. This is in correlation with the Sea Surface Temperature-SST under the contours.
( You may have to browse a few days before or after the date to get a cloud free image. Image are slow to load on DSL. May take quite a bit longer on dialup connections.~danielw)

Here's a link to the prestorm SSTs for Ivan '04, Katrina '05 and Rita '05.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/publications/images/PreStorms.gif

Edited by danielw (Fri Mar 24 2006 11:53 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SSTs, Nowcast and forecast [Re: danielw]
      #64769 - Sat Mar 25 2006 09:36 PM

This is a site that I just discovered. It contains quite a large number of graphical representations of the SSTs. Current and out to 120 hours (5 days).
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/products.shtml?

NW Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico page.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/products_hurr.shtml

Note the Disclaimer. "Although the RTOFS (Atlantic) is an operational model, we cannot guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of the model data and figures offered on this site.
Please see our disclaimer for more information."
http://weather.gov/disclaimer.php


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Hi all [Re: danielw]
      #64770 - Sun Mar 26 2006 02:02 AM

Returning tomorrow from a week on the MS coast. Went to IHC for the two days of technical but not-as-technical-as-Monterey talks, just my speed, and met a lot of mets, including most of the NHC contingent.

Later in the week I did make it over to Hancock and Harrison Counties. No surprises anywhere...having spent so much time reviewing the NOAA aerial images. Debris cleanup going well. Waveland is still slabs (Coleman Ave converted though with many tents). Clermont Harbor and Lakeshore look like they are completely gone (if you didn't know a community was there, you could drive right by the trees and marsh on Beach Blvd and not know), but then I didn't drive inland to see if anything was left by the railroad tracks. I don't know if it is just that I'm older, but Waveland seems so tiny, much smaller than on the map. With nothing but slabs and trees, and the occasional FEMA trailer, it seems oddly open, and more like a tiny park than a city. None of the tiny debris littering the trees, grass, and sides of the roadway in any of the counties has been picked up yet, giving everything a sad look, coupled with many bare trees that were too damaged to produce any leaves this year. No place looked as bad as Porteaux Bay, though. Hardly any headway has been made there except to remove the major debris from houses that were demolished by surge.

I stopped by Biloxi and saw Frank P and the two basset hounds, briefly. And the famous shutters. Frank is hanging out on s2k these days, where he says he spends most of his time disagreeing with Derek (upon brief inspection, appears to be the case ).

I'll try to find a way to get some of my photos online (any good ideas email me, I'm not that web-savvy).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
New blog [Re: Margie]
      #64772 - Sun Mar 26 2006 03:04 AM

Posted a new blog to the main page, another installment in the learning series -- this time on the cyclone phase diagrams. Might be a little choppy given the hour, so please let me know if you have any questions or would like clarification on something highlighted in there.

I've got one more in the pipeline for (hopefully) later this week on tropical cyclone track & steering flow influences, then will likely go back on sabbatical on those until closer to the tropical season. Unfortunately, I just have too much else to get done offline (e.g. this -- http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108576.htm) in the near-future to write up a lot else. The season itself should be a bit better for interaction, however, assuming we don't all get burned out with another 30 classified entities...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Hi all [Re: Margie]
      #64774 - Sun Mar 26 2006 03:09 AM

We went to Gulfport yesterday. Went down on Beach Hwy. I could not beleive what I saw. had seen it on tv but when you see it for yourself that has a whole different meaning. I went thru the 9th ward in NO in Nov and saw the damage. In my opinion I beleive that Ms. was hit harder. Look like bombs droped.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Hi all [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #64775 - Sun Mar 26 2006 12:07 PM

I hear ya Hurricane Fred... I'm living on the beach in Biloxi in my tiny little FEMA trailer and see it every darn day, and I'm still amazed and it’s still hard for me to believe.... the MS coast has been wiped off the face of the earth, at least everything within several blocks of the beach along Biloxi and Gulfport.. and along the bay and rivers, as you go more to the west - Long Beach, Pass, Bay St. L and Waveland... the total devastation goes inland for many many blocks...... they are razing down everything, very few structures will remain... its so incredible..

I did meet Margie and her mom yesterday... hey gang she's much nicer in person than online... hehe.... it was nice of her to pay me a visit... her mom was very nice to... sometimes you have to separate science from reality... I'm living in the reality of the aftermath of one of the greatest storm surges in recorded history... I don't care about how fast the winds blew, or how the storm weakened as it came onshore, or they downgraded it to a Cat 3... Bottom line, it was a surge of unprecedented records... and cause more damage than any other storm in history… and it still is hard for me to believe that I’m right in the middle of it… still…

My official surge per NOAA was 25.72 inches, with the highest along the coast at Pass with 35 feet, Beau at 25 feet and Bay St. Louis at 28 feet.. the ~26 feet at my neighborhood sounds about right from the water marks left in the destroyed houses... it could have been a couple of feet higher but it really doesn't matter... 12 of 13 homes on the block were completely destroyed... the other in quite bad shape but fixable..

Here is the NOAA link to the Katrina Impact Assessment report for those interested in the surge levels...

http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/website/Katrina_Harrison/viewer.htm


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Hi all [Re: Frank P]
      #64776 - Sun Mar 26 2006 04:33 PM

Quote:

hey gang she's much nicer in person than online... hehe....





Just remember, being accurate is not the same as not being nice!

Quote:

Bottom line, it was a surge of unprecedented records...

My official surge per NOAA was 25.72 inches, with the highest along the coast at Pass with 35 feet, Beau at 25 feet and Bay St. Louis at 28 feet..




Yes, it was.

Say, Frank, just so you know, you can't go by those HWM numbers on the Impact Assessment. They were put on that map before FEMA's contractor completed the analysis and weeded out the bad ones, and never cleaned up. The highest HWM are in the neighborhood of 25 ft.

I didn't recall a 35-ft mark there, and I've spent quite a bit of time going over that data; when I went back to the GIS data, I realized that is a typo on the Impact Assessment map (being so out of range, it stands out like a sore thumb). If you look at KMSC-04-10, which, from the lat/lon readings is clearly that point, the surge is 25.0 (and since these were rounded off on this spreadsheet, may have started out as 24.95 to 24.99), not 34.9, and that point is marked "off" and is not used in the analysis.

Here is the link to the spreadsheet of GIS data:

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/xls/katrina_ms_hwm.xls

If you go to the FEMA web site they have the same set of HWM with the bad ones eliminated, and this gives a more accurate handle on the actual storm tide. There is also an overview map showing the general heights of the storm tide, and this does a nice job of giving a big picture of the overall distribution of the water heights along the coast (although I have some issues with moving in the curve so quickly at Lakeshore/Clermont Harbor area).

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/katrina_ms_maps.shtm

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/pdf/ms_overview.pdf


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3507
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hi all [Re: Frank P]
      #64777 - Sun Mar 26 2006 09:17 PM

I thought that I had a good grasp on the High Water Marks. But now I'm slightly confused.
The 25.72ft that FrankP mentioned minus the 14ft elevation above sea level at his front yard. Gives me a water depth (surge?) of 11.72ft. Which seems consistant with the damage to his house.
Please PM me if I'm missing the math.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64779 - Mon Mar 27 2006 09:42 AM

For anyone interested, the Palm Beach Post ran an interesting article over the weekend on the 2006 hurricane season. No real news, just interesting.


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/local_news/epaper/2006/03/26/m1a_LANINA_0326.html


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