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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Gulf Trees [Re: Margie]
      #64805 - Sat Apr 01 2006 01:48 AM

Thanks for the shots of the trees Margie.
The oaks will mostly survive. Just lots of rain to leach out the salt will speed that up.
Sorry about the Pecans. They might not like all the salts in the SOIl.
I am happy that you were able to see what hurricanes can do to those that have to live through them.
Please remember this....everyone must remember this. It is no joke ....nor is it fun in any way.
People lose their homes and their lives and everything is forever changed by these storms.
If those that read this happen to live in non-hurricane prone areas.....you have no idea until you live through this. If you live through it!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Elevations [Re: Randrew]
      #64806 - Sat Apr 01 2006 09:51 AM

There seems to be quite a bit of discussion on the elevation issue. Too many different datums in use.

These two links are to the IPET web site. They apply mainly to New Orleans and Louisiana. But the datums issue is probably US-wide.

It's a powerpoint presentation on a pdf format.
https://ipet.wes.army.mil/NOHPP/_Post-Ka...port2_final.pdf

Main IPET page for New Orleans.
https://ipet.wes.army.mil/

Hank, I believe that you are the resident GIS person. This should be right up your alley, or bayou.~danielw

i think skeet has me beat at the GIS. i can use the built-in processes well enough, but can't write code.. which is what defines the men from the boys. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Apr 03 2006 11:29 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64814 - Mon Apr 03 2006 10:27 AM

Quote:

might need a new thread soon. the dr. klotzbach (formerly dr. gray) forecast from csu will be out next week, i believe. yep, april 4.
HF 1342z31march



Where's the thread set up w/last year's predictions? Yikes, can't find it. Please post a link to it, on this thread?

Any guesses on tomorrow? [Robert Shaw voice from Jaws]: "He'll have to lower the numbers; he'll have to lower them." The Dec forecast was like the beginning of an underdamped feedback loop; a kneejerk reaction to the 2005 season. In spite of weak MJO / La Nina, and NAO trending negative since Feb, and who knows what all else...zillions of other things, right, that I haven't had a chance to learn about yet, how much can all that matter, when SSTs are nothing like last year (2005 did such a good job that the warmth is all up in Greenland, melting ice, LOL, and trying to convince the Gulf Stream conveyor to shut down...be unsurprised, be very unsurprised).

Also, curious, what other groups put out these forecasts besides Klotzbach/Gray, and NOAA?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
post TC are done! [Re: Margie]
      #64817 - Mon Apr 03 2006 01:58 PM

Beta just out...that's the last one! Have to go read it now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL262005_Beta.pdf

It was fair, without going into specifics (why dwell on it, I guess). It did say that the GDFL generally outperformed the official track forecasts. But it was the models in general that kept pushing for the westward movement too early. Do you think that there is an internal process to look at these kinds of cases in more detail (i.e. anticipating the ridging more accurately)?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Apr 03 2006 02:06 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64818 - Mon Apr 03 2006 04:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

might need a new thread soon. the dr. klotzbach (formerly dr. gray) forecast from csu will be out next week, i believe. yep, april 4.
HF 1342z31march



Where's the thread set up w/last year's predictions? Yikes, can't find it. Please post a link to it, on this thread?

Any guesses on tomorrow? [Robert Shaw voice from Jaws]: "He'll have to lower the numbers; he'll have to lower them." The Dec forecast was like the beginning of an underdamped feedback loop; a kneejerk reaction to the 2005 season. In spite of weak MJO / La Nina, and NAO trending negative since Feb, and who knows what all else...zillions of other things, right, that I haven't had a chance to learn about yet, how much can all that matter, when SSTs are nothing like last year (2005 did such a good job that the warmth is all up in Greenland, melting ice, LOL, and trying to convince the Gulf Stream conveyor to shut down...be unsurprised, be very unsurprised).

Also, curious, what other groups put out these forecasts besides Klotzbach/Gray, and NOAA?




MArgie
Here is a link to the UK forecast. The next one to come out will be April 6.
UK Forecast


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64819 - Mon Apr 03 2006 04:42 PM

Here are the forecasts everyone posted after last season for this year: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=64437&an=0&page=0#64437

Unfortunately, the full thread is somewhere in the 2005 Storm Forum, which seems to be acting up right now.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
no change [Re: Clark]
      #64820 - Tue Apr 04 2006 02:48 AM

already online is the new csu team forecast, which is exactly the same as what they issued in december. in other words, the sentement is unchanged.. we're in for another heavy year. the probabilities of a major hit are given higher than average over the entire u.s. coast, though significantly higher along the atlantic seaboard. this sounds reasonable to me.
margie already noted the release of that last storm report for beta on monday. the only other updates left for the NHC guys are to post the big map of tracks on the reports page (which ought to be one heck of a tangle, and may require extra effort), and the changes to the storm names based on whatever the wmo decides to do about retirement (which may have already happened but is imminent if not).
that's a wrap on the goings on. with winter behind us the coming hurricane season feels tangibly closer. will have to update the thread before too long.
HF 0644z04april


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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: no change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64824 - Tue Apr 04 2006 08:28 AM

Yep. I read some of it to this morning. They are suppose to change the scheme for landfalls in the May 31 update. I don't think it will be even close to last year. Mainly in intensity. It's like a football game. More storms will form on there own 20 yard line. Or even on 5-10 yard line. The chances of a touchdown are greatly reduced. Last year they started on there own 40 or the other teams 40 or even 30 yard line. Alot easier to make a touchdown. Another words more of a cape verde season which wasn't there last year. More time to curve.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: no change [Re: LONNY307]
      #64825 - Tue Apr 04 2006 09:47 AM

So would this mean se fl will be more at risk?That they may curve up this way as opposed to going into the Yucatan and the gulf.Even though we got hit twice last year,Katrina became a cane just off shore,And Wilma came from the west.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: no change [Re: LONNY307]
      #64826 - Tue Apr 04 2006 10:03 AM

Lonny-

Don't count on it....sounds like Margie saying the numbers would go down (they may, but not yet).

Sounds like 'whistling past the graveyard'...it's an old saying, no one get offended.

It'll be busy, and bad, and I expect as many landfalls as last year, and not necessarily of lesser intensity...some will be in different places, but based on weak la nina/neutral years, Florida and the east coast are in for it...Tx and La, remain to be seen.

There'll be enough to go around....

MM


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lonny307
Unregistered




Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64833 - Tue Apr 04 2006 12:59 PM

No. More like fishes. I think the Carribean is in trouble this year. The longer the track the better the chance of a fish. Doesn't mean a storm can't get under the trof but a better chance then last year. Where not even the TUTT was present most of the season.

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Unplugged
Unregistered




Re: no change [Re: lonny307]
      #64835 - Tue Apr 04 2006 03:32 PM

>>No. More like fishes. I think the Carribean is in trouble this year. The longer the track the better the chance of a fish. Doesn't mean a storm can't get under the trof but a better chance then last year. Where not even the TUTT was present most of the season.

Last year's TUTT was interesting as it existed along with trof splitting on the NA Continent. That was a combo year (neutral) setup if ever there was one. Now I've noticed trofs are splitting still this year with a mean position even further west than what they were last year (TX/MN at the height). Whether or not any permanent TUTT sets up in the Atlantic (or even periodically) remains to be seen for the season as does the probability of recurvature. My thinking so far this year, and I haven't done almost any research so it's FWIW, is that there will probably be a multiple-hit season including splits between the Gulf and East Coast. I don't want to jump the gun without reading all the pro takes out there in April and May, but with indications of an already strong Atlantic High building, the shot at long trackers is better than average. It's just a wait and see game now.

Steve


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lonny307
Unregistered




Re: no change [Re: Unplugged]
      #64837 - Tue Apr 04 2006 05:21 PM

Anyone that has read Grey and associates April update. Could you please help me in understanding the values in table 1 in association with enhancing or decreasing hurricane activity. To me it doesn't make sense because a (-) in predictor 1 means decreased hurricane activity while it is saying La Nina.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: no change [Re: lonny307]
      #64842 - Tue Apr 04 2006 10:46 PM

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64843 - Wed Apr 05 2006 01:07 AM

bob, i guess it's possible, but those are some long odds. as far as getting the storms here once they form... part of me wants to think that will depend on how strong la nina gets. in a lot of the recent la nina seasons where the signal was strong most of the storms developed, peaked, and recurved well out in the atlantic. in during the 1996-2001 (sans 1997) span of la ninas the most frequently affected area was the outer banks of nc. the la nina was developing in 1995 (not mature), again with a large number of recurvatures. 2003-2005 has been mostly neutral/warm. should the la nina circulation become well developed i'd think it unlikely we'll see the peculiar circulation features that led to florida's pummeling in 2004 and the assault in the gulf in 2005.
can't get the csu forecast page to load to look at the chosen analog years. if i recall they fit the mold of recent la nina seasons, mostly. all winter i've been eyeballing the developing la nina, thinking of the return to the strike threat in eastern north carolina, with maybe the odd storm getting into the gulf. mostly though, recurvatures, storms clipping the ne caribbean, and maybe a good shellacking out at bermuda up to sable island. i'll try to refine my moonshine-quality ideas a little more when we do updates on our season forecasts in may.
HF 0506z05april


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64844 - Wed Apr 05 2006 02:02 PM

Your point is indeed something to ponder and we may be entering a unique era. While some of us think outside the box, the toughest part can often be in defining the box itself. Was 2005 the peak of the current cycle of high activity? Will the numbers decrease in 2006, only to increase again in 2007? In 1933 we had 21 storms (and if we had satellite at that time, I wonder what the real numbers would have been?). In 1934 the total decreased to 11. In 1995 we has 19 storms followed by 13 in 1996. Will a new record be set in a year or two? No real way of knowing until those seasons become history. My personal thought is that 2005 was a once in a century event, but I have no science to base that on (except for history itself).
Cheers,
ED


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64845 - Wed Apr 05 2006 05:53 PM

Quote:

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.




Here is my thing. If i'm not mistaken and someone correct me if i'm wrong in the April 2005 forecast by Dr. Gray he had it at 13/7/3. This same time for 2006 he has it 17/9/5. And he is saying that it won't be as bad as last year. Why is that and the numbers are higher this year tan last?


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: no change [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #64846 - Wed Apr 05 2006 07:20 PM

Quote:

Quote:

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.




Here is my thing. If i'm not mistaken and someone correct me if i'm wrong in the April 2005 forecast by Dr. Gray he had it at 13/7/3. This same time for 2006 he has it 17/9/5. And he is saying that it won't be as bad as last year. Why is that and the numbers are higher this year tan last?




I think this can be chalked up to the idea that 2005 was a stastical anomoly. The initial numbers are higher, but the current thought is... "Last year was a fluke." I personally am hoping that 2005 will be a 'stastical outlier' but... I'm still holding to my (even to my mind) outrageous prediction for 2006. Except near the US coast, water tempratures seem to be running about a degree (Farenheight) above average. We will have to see if that holds into the summer.

Even though i wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: no change [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64847 - Wed Apr 05 2006 08:59 PM

Quote:

Even though i wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?

-Mark



In a way...I have not stopped being involved with Katrina in some form on a daily basis since about August 25th last year. I'm not fatigued necessarily. I feel like I'm on a journey, and if I stopped and didn't complete that journey, I wouldn't be able to live with myself. If everything works out for the best, I'll be able to do some good.

My family was affected, and that has affected me. For awhile wasn't even sure if my brother was going to hold up and make it through the year (law enforcement has been slammed and are more shorthanded than ever, and no end in sight). A couple weeks ago, visited my hometown (Pascagoula), saw the new work on my momma's house and my brother's house. Drove along the coast, and, remarkably, found what I was looking for (a survivor from Clermont Harbor).

I realize that it's going to become a little strange this summer. It'll begin my second year of watching hurricanes, in just two months, which, since I've learned a lot, will be a whole new ballpark...but I'll still be doing Katrina research, and even spending my entire vacation down there sometime this summer (three weeks -- oh, and I'm bringing the furball), hoping to be there around the time of the first aniversary, and hoping that I don't have to go through a hurricane while I'm there, and hoping that if I do I'll get the chance to hang out on a DOW truck. :-)

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: no change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64848 - Wed Apr 05 2006 11:25 PM

HankFrank - My only worry about the La Nina recurve arguement is that a good number of those hurricanes came rather close to the east coast of Florida i.e., Hurricane Floyd. My concern is that considering the tendency the last two seasons for storms to actually make it to the east coast, the La Nina pattern could combine to bring them (possibly more than a couple) to FL and then recurve to NC. Does this reasoning make sense? Dr. Gray's analogs so far this year are 1964, 1996, 1999, and 2003. There were a couple of "close-calls" for Florida and hits to NC, and many close calls for both.

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