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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 573
Another South Atlantic TC??
      #64550 - Thu Feb 23 2006 02:50 PM Attachment (369 downloads)

Hello folks!
Happy off-season to you..
There are some very interesting developments taking place S of the Equator in the Atlantic Ocean. Could it be, the (correction "third") ever-recorded Tropical Cyclone to be observed down there is to take place so soon after the first, "Cyclone Catarina" - March, 2004?

For the shocking rarity of having those ledger-ed (should it be deemed so) twice in such brief geologic time span, this will likely have profound implications for the notoriety, as well as for Global climate change. I tried originally to post a visible image here but it was too large and tried to take over the screen area... I am in the process of finding new ones and microwave imagery of that region of the Globe, but I am having some difficulties...As soon as I am successful, I may update this. I am also attempting to find synoptic schemas for that region as well.

It is certainly 'tentatively' beginning to appear as though the "Atlantic Season", has an emergent property of being perennial phenomena! Already, such studies have been and continued to be plied: "Climate change scientists, working in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, recognize this as a feature they see in their climate model. In a world made warmer by increased greenhouse gasses, their model shows that this is one of the areas to watch in the future as there may indeed be more tropical storms for the South Atlantic."

The frequency of the typical tropical waves that we see traverse the N Atlantic during our tropical seasons do not have enough of the spatial-temporal significance out amid the areas between Africa and South America. This concept is intimated above. Rather, these types of events are likely developed by similar phenomena as Clark was covering, regarding trough interaction with residual disturbances.. In fact, they may even be born of the ends of troughs that situate over tropical SSTs; with perhaps truth plied to the notion that SST are indeed in a multiple decadal upward swing. This is a fascinating time to be tropical weather enthusiasts, as we seem to be on the verge of literally morphing an entire oceanic basin into a new paradigm of potentials.

John.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Mar 13 2006 03:33 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64553 - Thu Feb 23 2006 11:31 PM

well, it has the look. but there's a lot of shear ripping at it, and from what i can tell from the GFS that isn't going to change much. i've heard (but am not sure) that the GFS works very well in the southern hemisphere. so anyway i'd guess right off the bat that this will be a miss. NRL monterrey has a track on it, though... so nothing is impossible.
HF 0431z24february


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64556 - Fri Feb 24 2006 02:22 PM

Minor point of contention about this system. It would not be the second documented TC case in the South Atlantic. It would be the fourth. The first developed off the coast of Angola (Africa) in 1991. The second was in January of 2004, not very long before Catarina, and the third, of course, was Catarina.

There have been other interesting cases since the advent of the satellite era. Most of these look to be more of a subtropical or hybrid nature. I'll post more about this system when I get some time. For now it's off to work.

BTW...for any aspiring tropical mets (or more likely, a team of aspiring tropical mets) out there who are willing to pore over decades of geostationary satellite imagery, surface/upper air maps, model data, etc. from the south Atlantic, a thorough documentation and preliminary study of all tropical and hybrid south atlantic cyclones would make a fascinating and much-needed masters thesis. Given the puported link between GW and TC occurrence/severity, I doubt funding would be a problem. I'm sure there are many mets at NHC, and in Brazil who would be interested and willing to assist toward this end.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64557 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:32 PM

Where is this thing? I poured over all of the South Atlantic imagery I could find last night, and I could not locate anything that had "the look". Also, when did Catarina get named? I remember it, but at the time, I thought they just referred to it as "the apparent first ever recorded South Atlantic Hurricane"

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64558 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:42 PM

Quote:

Where is this thing? I poured over all of the South Atlantic imagery I could find last night, and I could not locate anything that had "the look". Also, when did Catarina get named? I remember it, but at the time, I thought they just referred to it as "the apparent first ever recorded South Atlantic Hurricane"



If I remember correctly, it is named Catarina due to the fact it hit the Brazillian state of "Catarina". Much like how the old cyclones were named. By where it struck and the year.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64559 - Fri Feb 24 2006 07:49 PM

00:50Z February 25, 2006...96 days before the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

And we have an active Tropical System in the South Atlantic?!!
I hope that isn't a precursor to the North Atlantic Season!

As the rare development of Catarina in the South Atlantic last year was indeed another, rare, Tropical System event.

Current Worldwide? Tropical Systems:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Edited by danielw (Fri Feb 24 2006 07:51 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: danielw]
      #64560 - Fri Feb 24 2006 08:09 PM

Quote:

00:50Z February 25, 2006...96 days before the 2006 North Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.
And we have an active Tropical System in the South Atlantic?!!
I hope that isn't a precursor to the North Atlantic Season!
As the rare development of Catarina in the South Atlantic last year was indeed another, rare, Tropical System event.
Current Worldwide? Tropical Systems:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html




I don't think a connection can be made to activity in the South Atlantic and potential increased activity in the North Atlantic, but you never know.

Now that I've found this "activity" (thanks for the link - I tried NRL earlier and the imagery was not up but it is now)... I must say, it looks almost as organized as the light rain mist that spread across my front yard the other day. Of course, without a loop (there's no "animate" option on the NRL page for the system, at least not for me) it's hard to tell, but I don't see any hint of rotation at all.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64561 - Fri Feb 24 2006 09:02 PM

Quote:

Now that I've found this "activity" (thanks for the link - I tried NRL earlier and the imagery was not up but it is now)... I must say, it looks almost as organized as the light rain mist that spread across my front yard the other day. Of course, without a loop (there's no "animate" option on the NRL page for the system, at least not for me) it's hard to tell, but I don't see any hint of rotation at all.




The south Atlantic system pretty much ceased to exist as a TC earlier today.

Here's a brief history based on my recollection of the satellite imagery I looked at (caveat: I don't have the imagery handy so the dates may be off a little)...

The cyclone was a tiny system (within the TC community, such systems are often referred to as "midget" tropical cyclones). It formed a circulation back on the afternoon of the 20th (Monday) off the coast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Through the 21st, the cyclone moved SSW, paralleling the Brazilian coastline for about a day. Then on the 22nd, the cyclone stalled and began to move back to the NNE pretty much along the same path, perhaps a tad farther east. From there it turned northeast and then eastward on the 23rd/24th, gradually losing it's convection in an increasingly hostile environment.

I'lll post some vis and IR images/loops when I get home. Here's a link to one I made on Thursday.

(edited to change URL)
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Feb21_Vis.gif

Many thanks to Jason Kelley for the use of his web space. If anyone has about 100MB of space they can lend, then I'd be happy to post the rest of the vis and IR loops from the 20th thru the morning of the 24th.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL

Edited by Tony Cristaldi (Fri Feb 24 2006 11:57 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64562 - Fri Feb 24 2006 09:43 PM

Thanks! I was looking further north, closer to the equator. The NRL-identified system does not appear to be the same as the loop you have - or maybe it's just newest and the system has ceased to exist, as you point out.

Looking at the global map at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...MOSAIC_SCALE=15

there appears to be a fish spinner around 50S 25W ... and I think I see the TC around 25S 30W The south Pacific looks like a mess too. The north Atlantic is about as clear as I've seen it this century!



Quote:


The south Atlantic system pretty much ceased to exist as a TC earlier today.
Here's a brief history based on my recollection of the satellite imagery I looked at (caveat: I don't have the imagery handy so the dates may be off a little)...
The cyclone was a tiny system (within the TC community, such systems are often referred to as "midget" tropical cyclones). It formed a circulation back on the afternoon of the 20th (Monday) off the coast of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Through the 21st, the cyclone moved SSW, paralleling the Brazilian coastline for about a day.





--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Hugh]
      #64564 - Sat Feb 25 2006 06:29 AM

So, Something popped up along the coast, another something popped up around 29S 40W, and there's more stuff out there? I suppose this would be the equivelant of late summer in the southern hemisphere, so if there are going to be tropical cyclones, now would be a good time to have them start popping up. if they're going to pop up.

interesting talkback on the wiki about southern atlantic cyclones, if anyone is willing to take a gander and set 'em right

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:South_Atlantic_tropical_cyclone

so, are we all looking at several things?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Links to satellite time lapses of the South Atlantic cyclone [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64565 - Sat Feb 25 2006 12:57 PM

Special thanks to Thomas Saevert, a weather enthusiast in Germany for lending me some web space.

http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb20_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb21_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb22_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb23_ir.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb24_ir.gif

http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb20_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb21_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb22_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb23_vis.gif
http://www.saevert.de/atlantik/suedatlantik/06feb24_vis.gif


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64566 - Sat Feb 25 2006 04:25 PM

My Apologies, I was not aware of that history - I shall be more careful in the future, to check the veracity of my sources. And, I like the bold use of text for documented, wherein we are presuming that such has not actually occurred. I can already see the issues that would need to be sorted out in attempting such thesis work; one of which would have to related to the modern understanding of the subtropical/hybrid model and that comparison to the truer deep layer tropical model, then applied to (as you intimated) mountains of old data... It may just be that these are more common across history - but then again, one would think that the stunning symmetry and gorgeous structure of the cyclone that struck Brazil last year, would have been noted before... There from, there is a question: Was that the first documented case of a system with "that" kind of structure - or is the answer to this question to subjective for a perfunctory review.. ?

In the mean time, the point "might" still stand that the frequency of these occurrences are definitely increasing ; agreed, there is vast potential for multiple disciplinary research facets and particularly, the increased frequency with GW is a growing concern for all oceanic basins.

Thanks for statistical correction!!

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Feb 25 2006 04:48 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64567 - Sat Feb 25 2006 05:35 PM

Nice flare up of convection for the last 6 hours, but probably won't be sustained. nothing definitive on the QuikSCAT. Of course one pass missed the area totally, and the other doesn't show anything certain. The waters in the area fairly warm, so, it's worth watching. The other good news, it's heading east, away from land, so shouldn't be a threat even if it does somehow develop.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
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Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64568 - Sat Feb 25 2006 06:37 PM

Quote:

Nice flare up of convection for the last 6 hours, but probably won't be sustained. nothing definitive on the QuikSCAT. Of course one pass missed the area totally, and the other doesn't show anything certain. The waters in the area fairly warm, so, it's worth watching. The other good news, it's heading east, away from land, so shouldn't be a threat even if it does somehow develop.




Believe it or not, the area you're looking at is actually a different one that what was tracked over the past several days. I'm trying to put together an animation of images around this area to see if there is any sort of circ beneath this new area of convection. MI data looks inconclusive at best. Edited to add: No sort of spin that I can make out - I think it's simply a jet divergence aided convective complex.

b/r
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Melbourne FL


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Deep_Surge
Unregistered




Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #64569 - Sat Feb 25 2006 10:51 PM

How come there is a INVEST in the Atlantic right now? There is not too much out there right now except a Low near another Low bringing a Blizzerd to Newfoundland. What's up with this system?

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StormHound
Weather Guru


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Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Deep_Surge]
      #64570 - Sun Feb 26 2006 12:02 AM

Great stuff, Tony! I hope you stick around for the season.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Convection flare up around 29S 36W? [Re: Deep_Surge]
      #64571 - Sun Feb 26 2006 12:29 AM

Quote:

How come there is a INVEST in the Atlantic right now? There is not too much out there right now except a Low near another Low bringing a Blizzerd to Newfoundland. What's up with this system?




The INVES is for the South Atlantic. It's Hurricane Season below the Equator. Actually I'm not really sure if they have a Real Hurricane Season.
There was a Tropical System in the South Atlantic earlier in the week. And it would appear that NRL is watching another area closely. With the continued
"INVES".


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HanKFranK
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call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64572 - Sun Feb 26 2006 02:30 AM

many thanks to mr. cristaldi for putting up those animated gifs of our recent system. seems i'd only caught the tail end of it... there was more to the story than reckoned. a presumptuous eyeballing of the shear situation and i called it dead in the water; but the system wasn't emergent at that point, as it had already gone through most of its life cycle. based on the satelite running back to february 20th, i wouldn't be surprised if that system was holding down gale force winds at times between the 21st and 23rd. guess quickscat vectors never showed any since there hasn't been a big pile of hype on the feature. nevertheless, this little bugger has me wondering bigtime if we'll see more south atlantic activity in the future. 2004 seemed like some mad statistical fluke, but just two years later another convincing feature has popped up.
further north of where the system has come unbound that other convective feature is still flaring away, just like the one that spawned the little freak... as noted in a previous post. things are surely going mad when i'm looking for a tropical system off the coast of brazil in february. wacky doesn't begin to describe this.
HF 0730z26february


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: call me better informed... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64573 - Sun Feb 26 2006 02:51 AM

I noticed an increase in convection on an NRL loop earlier. Centered near 0.0S and 0.0W, just off the West African Coast. Earlier sat. signature in that same area died about 10-15W.
Latest signature had a much more intensive outflow pattern and colder cloud temperatures.

Maybe the South Atlantic can dissipate some of the global heat before the North Atlantic season opens. I know better than that. But here's to wishful thinking.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64574 - Sun Feb 26 2006 11:00 AM

Now that you mention it, the ITCZ does indeed look very active. The wave on the African Coast looks to have a very good circulation, good rotation, with an array of beautiful cirrus outflow bands. The SST's are certainly suffice to support a hurricane (I can't get a high resolution map of the area, but according to supertyphoon SST's around 30 C).

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: call me better informed... [Re: danielw]
      #64576 - Mon Feb 27 2006 12:53 AM

There's some really interesting work coming out on global heat transfer with regards to tropical cyclone activity -- the first work to actually attempt to quantify the impacts of tropical cyclones upon it -- but it's not quite published yet. Hopefully later this year, with at least a preview coming in late April. I'll let you all know about it then, just remind me.

The way the weather patterns across the N. Atlantic are going right now, however, I don't think we'll see an active early season. Stronger subtropical ridges during the winter/spring tend to result in a bit more upwelling/mixing across the regions that tend to favor development early in the season. We see weaker wintertime ridges particularly after weak El Nino years, such as that which lead into 2005. We've got the opposite situation going on now, however. Some folks down at the NHC & related groups are working on some research trying to quantify this for the AMS tropical conference in Monterey in April; once they've got more down on paper, I'll pass that along as well.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: call me better informed... [Re: Keith234]
      #64577 - Mon Feb 27 2006 12:19 PM

Quote:

Now that you mention it, the ITCZ does indeed look very active.



You should have been looking in January.

Here I am trying to learn about tropical weather, in January, and reading about July and January ocean surface streamline patterns, looking at sat images, very active ITCZ, and se'ly winds in the GOM, looked more like the July pattern, talk about confusing. In Feb I believe it started to look more like a winter pattern in the ATL. Since I've only been watching tropical weather since July last year (when I became completely facinated with it, before I even knew I'd stumbled into a historic season, and sad to say am still spending just about every single spare moment I have on it -- still finding out some very interesting things about Katrina), I don't have any history go to on, but I still keep seeing comments from seasoned folks how unusual some of the things are that we are seeing.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: call me better informed... [Re: Margie]
      #64579 - Mon Feb 27 2006 06:09 PM

The major differences in the Atlantic season to season are mainly the location of the ITCZ and the intenisty and number of disturbances coming off Africa. The majority of the north atlantic has a vast area of high pressure all year, so no matter what time of year it will look the same (unless you have a couple hurricanes barrelling on up:}). Yes, the jet is somewhat suppressed during the winter months, but that can be seen to some extent any time of the year. (Edit: the jet is generally stronger in winter, not suppressed. It is actually quite prevalent at upper-levels across the basin in the winter. Surface and upper-level features like jets are two entirely different ballgames. -Clark) The other main differences are the phases of the NAO, which govern the location and strength of the mid-latitude jet. That'll show up in satellite imagery as streets of cirrus clouds. Usually it's noticeable. Other than that it looks the same during the summer and winter.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Clark (Mon Feb 27 2006 06:43 PM)


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WOW
Unregistered




Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #64628 - Thu Mar 02 2006 05:02 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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HanKFranK
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interesting, but nothing [Re: Keith234]
      #64634 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:10 PM

there's a neat little feature near the yucatan today--appears to be a weak mid-level disturbance/surface convergence line flaring near east of an upper low in the diffluent region. high level winds are increasing, however, and the SSTs are only in the 70s, so it won't do anything. just getting into march, so the basin won't be primed for several months to come.
HF 0010z03march


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64635 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:24 PM

Thanks Hank, I thought I was on to something early and ugly.
Saw a few clouds in the Yucatan area earlier on TWC. The local TV Forecaster had a really nice color loop of the entire GOM...but No mention of the Yucatan Area.

I'm with you on the SSTs. They were running about 1.5C degrees above normal on the 21st of Feb, at buoy 42001 ( See Everything and Nothing Forum).

I'm here for the night. Will bring up the GOM sites and keep watch. Practice...right.

Off topic. 6 months post-'K', and things are still debris strewn in places 50-90 miles inland. I'm sure the areas South of here are still quite cluttered. The Coast and New Orleans managed to pull off a smaller Mardi Gras, but I believe it helped 'some' of them get back in step.

edit: 1108Z (12 hours ago), Quikscatter pass indicated possible rain contaminated, backing winds in the Eastern Semicircle. From 20 to 30 knots.
Winds of 50-60 knots were also indicated around the NE Quadrant perimeter.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 07:38 PM)


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MrSpock29
Unregistered




Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64636 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:53 PM

My question is, did any occur before the use of satellites?

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MrSpock29
Unregistered




Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: danielw]
      #64637 - Thu Mar 02 2006 07:56 PM

Daniel, I seem to have lost/forgotten my password. How can I get a new one sent to me?
My user name should be MrSpock29.
Thanks.

Go to the Main Page, scroll down, and fill in your e-mail and other info.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 08:07 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: interesting, but nothing [Re: danielw]
      #64638 - Thu Mar 02 2006 08:04 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 02 2006 edited~danielw

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW EXTENDS
ALONG 29N83W 25N88W 19N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 85W-90W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
OTHERWISE...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT WWD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND IS PRODUCING BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE N GULF
COAST TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TWDAT&max=51


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danielwAdministrator
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Glad It's the 1st of March!! [Re: danielw]
      #64639 - Thu Mar 02 2006 08:47 PM

Not much convection indicated in this sat shot. AMS viewer, at 00Z, coldest cloud top that I found was -48.0C at 22.17N/ 85.71W.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/current_RB.jpg


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: MrSpock29]
      #64640 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:03 PM

Quote:

My question is, did any occur before the use of satellites?




Early research is indicating that the 2004 Hurricane may be the first Hurricane in the South Atlantic. I'm looking for an Official source rather than weather blogs.
This may belong in the Other Basins Forum.-ED?~danielw
http://www.sbmet.org.br/internas/publicacoes/informativo/2005_07/index_en.html

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/tcimages/Misc/

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 09:14 PM)


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NONAME
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Re: GOM [Re: danielw]
      #64641 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:13 PM Attachment (269 downloads)

I am Just wondering what is the movement of the ITCZ during the year and it look as if it is on the move north at least over Africa.
Also that GOM System Has a chance to devlop but i would only give it about 5%.

edit~danielw
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED CUTOFF LOW IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
~emphasis added:danielw

Edited by danielw (Thu Mar 02 2006 09:19 PM)


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MrSpock29
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: danielw]
      #64642 - Thu Mar 02 2006 09:18 PM

Thank you very much for the responses and links, they are very interesting. I have bookmarked them to study them in better detail later.
Kind of brings me back to a met class I had in college, but the topic was only touched on briefly. That class was actually a couple years ahead of the 1991 system-a case of bad timing I guess.


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recmod
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Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64645 - Thu Mar 02 2006 10:50 PM

Max Mayfield had a talk that was broadcast live on Hurricanetrack.com this evening. A couple very interesting comments he made stuck out in my mind:


- There may be a 28th "named" storm after analysis.
- Emily will "very likely" be upgraded to a cat 5

I wonder which system he was alluding to as possibly being upgraded to the 28th tropical storm of the season....?????

--Lou


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MrSpock
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Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64646 - Thu Mar 02 2006 11:32 PM

wow, I guess post-season analysis might add to the total. It will be interesting to see which one that was. This is one reason I think there may have been other cyclones in the S.Atlantic, as I am not sure that basin gets the scrutiny our basin does.

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Margie
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Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64647 - Fri Mar 03 2006 08:20 AM

Quote:

Max Mayfield had a talk that was broadcast live on Hurricanetrack.com this evening. A couple very interesting comments he made stuck out in my mind:

- There may be a 28th "named" storm after analysis.
- Emily will "very likely" be upgraded to a cat 5

I wonder which system he was alluding to as possibly being upgraded to the 28th tropical storm of the season....?????

--Lou



Too bad I missed it. I never know when those things are occuring (hey I don't even watch tv).

That would have to be subtropical depression 22. Speaking of which, is TD 19 the shortest post TC report on record? Just curious.

I saw that Emily's Cat 4 was 'flagged' with an asterisk on a set of slides talking about the 2005 season, so I assumed they were definitely going to upgrade. I'm glad. Emily was the first TC I watched from beginning to end and at the time I remember being disappointed that none of the advisories upgraded to a five based on the satellite presentation, which was just beautiful (and I wonder now how I would have even known that after only one week of watching hurricanes online); of course now I know there is a lot of other data that goes into determining intensity and that satellite presentation can only give a rough estimate (still, why in the sam hill they flew into Wilma at the 850mb level that first time is beyond me).

---

Just wondered...gee, what will they name it? The next letter was already taken. That poses an interesting problem. Another Greek name? Another bizarre note to the 2005 season. Well, at least in that case the season will still have run from A to Z (Mother Nature couldn't let that opportunity for literary allusion pass by).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Mar 03 2006 08:46 AM)


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Clark
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Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64648 - Fri Mar 03 2006 12:12 PM

I had heard about both of those about a week ago, but now that the cat is out of the bag somewhat I'll run with it. It's likely that the additional storm is an entirely new one to the database. It'll be another of the subtropical-->tropical conversions and have a short lifespan (perhaps as short as 12hr). I don't know if it is the one that we were looking at pretty hard back around the time of the others, but that is the time frame we are looking at here.

Emily's upgrade is and always has been a borderline call, one which they've wavered on for some time. Initially, it looked like it would happen; then, it didn't look so likely. Now, it looks pretty likely once again. There is a *lot* of evidence supporting the current intensity of 155mph/cat. 4, whereas there is one observation out of thousands that supports the cat. 5 designation with the caveat that parts of the storm (despite having the pretty accurate SFMR data) were not well-sampled enough to conclude that those cat. 5 winds did not exist for a span of several hours within Emily. Based off of that, it's likely you'll see an upgrade -- but don't be surprised if it doesn't end up coming.

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Margie
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Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: Clark]
      #64650 - Fri Mar 03 2006 12:49 PM

Quote:

It's likely that the additional storm is an entirely new one to the database. It'll be another of the subtropical-->tropical conversions and have a short lifespan (perhaps as short as 12hr).



I don't even remember that one. Could there have been one day last autumn when I didn't spend a lot of time at the computer.

Quote:

Emily's upgrade...there is one observation out of thousands that supports the cat. 5 designation



Well the way it seems to work is that even if there is only one obs, that is all they need. Different from the public perception of the max winds for certain.

Hey Clark I have (yet) another idea for one of your learning series blogs...discussion of transport of winds down past the boundary layer to the surface (what factors are involved, why this is so different from hurricane to hurricane and at different times in the same hurricane) and different methods for determining surface winds...and accuracy of those determinations.

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Deep_Surge
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Re: Max Mayfield Talk Tonight [Re: recmod]
      #64655 - Fri Mar 03 2006 05:13 PM

I watched that thing on Hurricane track as well and I just found out 1 minute before the video live stream began. It was pretty good and those radar loops of Katrina looked great. He talked about that hurricane most of the time.

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ltpat228
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Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: WOW]
      #64656 - Fri Mar 03 2006 09:39 PM

Where may I locate these "Graveyard" posts?

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HanKFranK
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Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: ltpat228]
      #64658 - Fri Mar 03 2006 11:57 PM

ltpat--if it isn't on your list of forums, it must not be accessible to normal users. i wouldn't recommend going there, as the music is very annoying.
as for storm 28... geez, neat. wonder which one it was? could be that system in late august that looked 'alive' ahead of developing lee. rabbit posted an interesting image of that one a while back.
the post-subtropical depression 22 feature which hovered off of new england might have a sliver of a chance at a secondary subtropical storm.
can't think of anything else off the top of my head. unless they want to give tropical depression 10 an upgrade. the report has already been issued, so i doubt it will get any changes.
clark, maybe you know something i don't?
HF 0457z04march
researched addendum:
checked gary padgett's monthly analyses, noticed a couple of other potential features which may get tagged and push the total to 28th. low probability on all. in early january a system that looked slightly subtropical existed for a couple of days in the central atlantic. around mid-april a coastal low off hatteras temporarily had a subtropical appearance as well. there was a well-defined disturbance near jamaica in late may that turned out to be of no consequence. what i had forgotten and should have remembered was what bastardi called the 'energizer bunny.' a tropical disturbance closed off and developed a tropical cyclone profile as it approached the outer banks, and actually looked like a weak tropical system as it moved northward along the mid atlantic coast in late june. no evidence it produced any gale force winds, though. of all the systems covered thus far, the late august system around lee has the most convincing evidence that it was briefly a tropical storm.
0510z04march

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Mar 04 2006 12:11 AM)


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Rabbit
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Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64660 - Sat Mar 04 2006 11:57 AM

mentioning of subtd22 as upgrade to ts; it looks very doubtful to me since the post-analysis is already complete

an interesting image too, go to post-analysys for tropical storm delta, and look at the satellite image on the last page

also, a satellite archive going back to 1983
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/gibbs/gibbs.html


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Clark
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Re: Sent to Graveyard [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64661 - Sat Mar 04 2006 01:32 PM

From what Pasch told me, I'm inclined to believe it's the feature we were tracking in the immediate wake of Epsilon. I do know that he said it was another of those types of storms around the same time as Delta and Epsilon and I feel that it is the best candidate. Talking around the 10th of December, give or take a few days, with only a marginal life cycle -- 12 hours or so.

There's more on this feature in the Epsilon thread at http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=64061&an=0&page=0#64061 -- look in the vicinity of post #100 & beyond in that thread. I remember noting that it made it about 85% of the way to classification with about a 12 hour span of doing something way back in early December, leading me to believe that this is the feature the guys at the NHC are talking about.

If Pasch hadn'tve said another tropical transition feature around the same time as Delta and Epsilon, I would've guessed the late June feature along the east coast from Cape Hatteras to DC. It may well have been a subtropical depression, but I don't imagine the NHC is going to fret too much over a depression as opposed to a storm. Just my hunch, though.

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Bloodstar
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5N 5E? [Re: Clark]
      #64662 - Sun Mar 05 2006 05:07 AM Attachment (345 downloads)

I think I'm hallucinating but if Ididn't know any better I'd say there's something interesting there. File is attached of the
area in question.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.

Edited by Bloodstar (Sun Mar 05 2006 05:08 AM)


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Margie
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Re: 5N 5E? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64664 - Sun Mar 05 2006 09:52 AM

Quote:

I think I'm hallucinating but if Ididn't know any better I'd say there's something interesting there. -Mark



Hey, you haven't been into the special brownies, have you?

Just a little rain, just a little wind.

--------------------
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MapMaster
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Re: 5N 5E? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64665 - Sun Mar 05 2006 02:59 PM

Think you are onto something there, Blood. Fascinating.

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ltpat228
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Re: 5N 5E? [Re: MapMaster]
      #64666 - Sun Mar 05 2006 08:34 PM

Quote:

Think you are onto something there, Blood.




I see the same thing!


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Bloodstar
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Re: 5N 5E? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64667 - Mon Mar 06 2006 04:59 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Think you are onto something there, Blood.




I see the same thing!




Happily, I was just seeing artefacts. I probably should have added some more information, but best I can tell Climatology says no way in heck something would develop there. it looked like something with a possible spin/twist and some clustering of storms that had been there at least 12 hours previously, by this afternoon, the complex was falling apart. and now it looks like an upper level low that had managed to get a little convection firing near the center.

a storm developing below 5 degrees latitude is extremely... rare. the storms were also very close to land, so any possibility of development could only happen from something that was stationary.

so... nothing to see, move along.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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Rabbit
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questions for the experts [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64668 - Mon Mar 06 2006 10:38 AM

while looking over the past 13 years of daily weather for central florida, i discovered something interesting that i am wondering about, if it may have been a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the central atlantic?

February 25 1993
February 26 1993
February 27 1993

also, months ago, there was talk of subtropical storms in 1992 and 1994
these you can zoom in on and loop also (the day after the year is the day OF the year, you can loop by changing the time, available every three hours)
both are in the Gulf
October 1992 IR October 1992 VIS
October 1994 VIS October 1994 IR

it is interesing to note that the HPC does list the latter as a subtropical storm


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Clark
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Re: questions for the experts [Re: Rabbit]
      #64672 - Mon Mar 06 2006 04:25 PM

The 1993 feature definitely looks frontal/extratropical to me. Note how it is connected to the frontal zone, particularly in the second of the three images. Without having any other data off-hand, I'd say that's an extratropical cyclone that may have tried to become subtropical but probably didn't get there.

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danielwAdministrator
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For what's it's worth Department [Re: Clark]
      #64673 - Mon Mar 06 2006 07:56 PM

Checking the regional Fire Weather for the SE US. I came across this tidbit from the Friday, March 3rd forecast.

"7. Tropical Weather Summary.
No Activity. With 3 months th the official start of the 2006 Hurricane season, tropical Atlantic temperatures currently range 0.5 to 1.5 degrees above average. Surface Caribbean water temperatures are now at the threshold temperature of 80 degrees, with only slight above average anomalies."

http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/outlooks/DailyWxSummaryandOutlook.pdf
(data is time sensitive, and may be found on the 3rd page of the PDF, under section "7-Tropical Weather Summary".~danielw)

*Note: the degree anomaly for the tropical Atlantic doesn't indicate C or F. As C is normally used to describe these parameters, I'm assuming the 0.5 to 1.5 degree anomaly to be in Celcius. I will attempt to isolate a better data source.~danielw
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/atlsst_lastweek.shtml

Using today's (6MAR06) SST analysis from NLMOC. The Caribbean (South of 25.0N), is at or above 26C or 79F.
The GOM has a much broader range. From 17C (63F) in the Cedar Key area, to a high of 26C (79F) in the Yucatan Channel/ GOM Loop Current area. That area is currently, south of 25.0N and between 84.5 and 88.5W.
(following link gives updated SSTs)~danielw
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Oceans/Gulf_Stream/gulf02.gif

Edited by danielw (Mon Mar 06 2006 09:01 PM)


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HanKFranK
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2011 list [Re: danielw]
      #64678 - Wed Mar 08 2006 01:28 PM

far as i know, later this month at the wmo conference or in early april the 2005 names of infamy will be stricken from the list and replaced. the five majors that hit the u.s./mexico are almost surely gone--stan being the potential but uncertain sixth. also heard of a move to create some sort of alternate list for over-21 storms as opposed to the greek alphabet. 2005 may have been the one and only time we'll see it used.
the onion has an interesting spoof on NHC attempts to deal with naming all the hurricanes.
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/45796
later.
HF 1828z08march

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Mar 08 2006 01:29 PM)


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Margie
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Re: 2011 list [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64679 - Wed Mar 08 2006 03:01 PM

Quote:

the onion has an interesting spoof on NHC attempts to deal with naming all the hurricanes.
later.
HF 1828z08march




I put that link in the comedy forum. :-)

--------------------
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lonny307
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Re: La Nina [Re: Margie]
      #64681 - Thu Mar 09 2006 11:35 AM

Still in a weak La nina. At least through June:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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NONAME
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Re: La Nina [Re: lonny307]
      #64690 - Sun Mar 12 2006 05:46 PM

I cant believe theres been no Post in 3 days well look like theres a nic bermuda high that should warm some of the water a little well happy postings.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: La Nina [Re: NONAME]
      #64691 - Sun Mar 12 2006 05:56 PM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Margie
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Re: La Nina [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #64692 - Sun Mar 12 2006 07:32 PM

Quote:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf



Meteorology has more statistics than baseball.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ltpat228
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Re: La Nina [Re: Margie]
      #64694 - Sun Mar 12 2006 09:52 PM

Quote:

Meteorology has more statistics than baseball.




That link does not work.


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HanKFranK
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emily post-analysis [Re: ltpat228]
      #64695 - Mon Mar 13 2006 12:34 PM

they did make the expected change to emily, having it tipped up to a category 5 during one advisory cycle for early on july 17. given the evidence it isn't exactly a dead-ringer, but not terribly unlikely either. i wouldn't say emily being a cat 5 was more likely than delta having been a hurricane, though.
still, as the season records stand, that's now four category 5 hurricanes. of them emily was clearly the least destructive--its yucatan hit wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been. coming right on the heels of precocious Dennis, it wasn't very reassuring for the direction the season was taking, either.
to put the number of fives we had last year in perspective, the quartet of emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma happened over a three month period, while the previous four cat 5s were Ivan, 2004, isabel, 2003, mitch, 1998, and Andrew, 1992 over a 13 year period.
HF 1734z13march


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Margie
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Re: emily post-analysis [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64696 - Mon Mar 13 2006 01:14 PM

You beat me to it.

Well that makes me happy that they upgraded her, because Emily did look so perfectly formed for that short time south of Cuba.

It was interesting they didn't go into that strange weakening phase prior to the Yucatan landfall, that was so weird: "Emily began to slowly weaken...this time in the absence of concentric eyewalls but also without any obvious external synoptic forcing." Remember the storm structure just went splat! all of a sudden, like two left feet or something.

HF that really does put things in perspective. Not having followed hurricanes very long, I didn't realize. Hard to do, but your statement makes the 2005 season even more dramatic, in retrospect.

--------------------
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Deep Surge
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Re: emily post-analysis [Re: Margie]
      #64697 - Mon Mar 13 2006 11:28 PM

Emily is now a CAT5 which is amazing. A new record to add: Hurricane Emily was the earlyest CAT5 hurricane ever in the atlantic ocean. When will the records stop being broken? There was a huge tornado outbreak 2 days ago and I think the weather is going to turn a dark corner this year unlike anything we've seen.

I can assure you that if you take a big enough slice of time, nothing becomes unlike anything we've seen. The odd-century we have of quality weather records makes for lots of dark corners, but really nothing we shouldn't expect.--HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Mar 15 2006 12:32 AM)


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Margie
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surprise [Re: Deep Surge]
      #64698 - Wed Mar 15 2006 05:01 PM

I've been distracted (planning a serious last-minute road trip), and haven't been looking at the sat images every day. So Jeff Masters got the jump on me with this one:

"The season's second South Atlantic tropical/sub-tropical disturbance has formed off of the coast of Brazil today. The disturbance formed from the remains of a cold-core low, which sat over warm waters of 27 degrees C long enough to start acquiring tropical characteristics. We saw this same behavior this past hurricane season with the Greek storms Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta. The disturbance is mostly just a swirl of low clouds, but has seen two bursts of deep convection today. The most recent burst of convection, seen in the satellite photo below, formed in a spiral band well removed from the center. Early this morning, a more impressive burst of deep convection formed near the storm's center, but was quickly ripped away by strong westerly upper-level winds. These strong winds are expected to continue to bring high levels of wind shear over the disturbance over the next few days, and likely keep it from forming into a tropical depression. The system is expected to move slowly southwest, parallel to the Brazilian coast, and get absorbed into a frontal system to the south by Friday. No threat to land is likely, and this storm is mostly just of academic interest."

Check it out:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Right now you can only see it on the IR but it'll be on the vis tomorrow, or you can look at this morning's from Jeff's blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

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Wingman51
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Re: surprise [Re: Margie]
      #64699 - Wed Mar 15 2006 10:25 PM

Been lurking since the end of the season but neede to jump in to ask the mods a question - - Is there any historical correllation between these south Atlantic systems, SST's and what we can expect for the upcoming season?? Just want to know if we need to double up on supplies for this year

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Clark
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Re: surprise [Re: Wingman51]
      #64700 - Thu Mar 16 2006 12:23 AM

Nah, there have been so few S. Atlantic tropical cyclone/quasi-TC features that no sound statistical correlations can be drawn between that and SSTs and tropical cyclone frequency up here.

Just on a random "parallel," my guess is that things are setting up a little similar to 2004, but what happens in March only has a small impact upon what happens in June-November. But really, SSTs are below average across much of the basin, so it's really folly to say what's going to happen. Climate science is beyond my grasp and I'm not much of a firm believer in it, so I'll leave any further discussion to those more familiar with it.

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HanKFranK
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Re: surprise [Re: Clark]
      #64701 - Thu Mar 16 2006 06:17 PM

all that i can add is that in recent winters we've seen extensive patches of sub-normal atlantic SSTs (probably not as extensive as this winter's, however) and they have given way to generally above normal SSTs by the following summer. if i had to guess at the upcoming year's pattern... just based on trends from SSTs in the western hemisphere, i'd guess at something like '96 or '98 for the '06 season.
HF 2317z16march


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Lee-Delray
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Re: surprise [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64702 - Thu Mar 16 2006 08:25 PM

1996 had 13 storms; 1998 had 14 stoms. That's less than 2005's 27.
13 is less than 27? get out of here! heh. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Mar 16 2006 10:31 PM)


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HanKFranK
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FYI guys... [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64705 - Fri Mar 17 2006 03:30 PM

NHC has put out four of the five post-analyses that were due. Wording in the report on Zeta indicates that a 28th system will not appear in the analysis. There were not substantive changes to Franklin or Harvey (though Harvey's post-tropical track was extended quite a bit), though Rita had a couple of modifications (landfall intensity, and peak intensity/min pressure were altered a bit), and Zeta had its genesis tracked back six hours and a short post-tropical track appended. Beta is the only one left, now. And the track map...
HF 2029z17march
(Erin Go Bragh, by the way.)

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Mar 18 2006 08:06 PM)


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Rich B
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Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64711 - Sun Mar 19 2006 05:24 AM

Looks like folks down under are in for quite a battering, especially those along the QLD coast from Cairns to Bowen., Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified rapidly during the past 10 hours, with central pressure dropping from 950mb to a current 925mb. The cyclone is a Category 4 on the Australian Scale, with gusts to 280 kmh. However, larry is getting stronger, and will likely reach Category 5 with gusts over 300 kmh. Certainly gonna be a devastating impact wherever it moves onshore.

--------------------
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SkyWarn UK


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: Rich B]
      #64719 - Sun Mar 19 2006 06:36 PM

Indeed! For those who are interested:




...or:

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/radar/IDR212.20060319200550.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/storm/dvor-nh26.GIF


Will do statistics as they are available - unless any privy individuals have such that they may disseminate??

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Mar 19 2006 06:38 PM)


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ltpat228
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64721 - Sun Mar 19 2006 09:17 PM

Any one know how far (or near...ha ha) Tahiti is to the current hurricanes by Australia.
eyeballing it about 3000 miles to queensland, australia -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Mar 20 2006 03:26 AM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: ltpat228]
      #64724 - Mon Mar 20 2006 03:28 AM

australia's rating system seems quite a bit different than ours, going to cat 5 for a 120mph cyclone. then again, that might be 10-min averaged winds or something, which would be a good deal stronger than 1-min avg winds of that speed.
fortunately that part of the country is sparsely populated.
HF 0828z20march


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cocoabeach
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64725 - Mon Mar 20 2006 11:23 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

whats going on up north Novia Scotia area?
is that a low pressure?
Drop a bunch of snow you think?


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Hugh
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64727 - Mon Mar 20 2006 08:49 PM

Quote:

australia's rating system seems quite a bit different than ours, going to cat 5 for a 120mph cyclone. then again, that might be 10-min averaged winds or something, which would be a good deal stronger than 1-min avg winds of that speed.
fortunately that part of the country is sparsely populated.
HF 0828z20march




I did a bit of looking because I was curious about this as well, HankFrank. Here's a link I found:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone/windstr.shtml


CATEGORY 5
Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.
A Category 5 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts of more than 280 km/h.
These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).

Using my trusty web calculator, 280 km/h is roughly 175 mph, which is beyond "minimal" Cat 5, and is Katrina-like on the SSHS.

Now, the page says "strongest" winds, so maybe it involves gusts.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Myles
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Re: Australia - STC Larry [Re: Hugh]
      #64728 - Mon Mar 20 2006 10:22 PM

The strongest winds do refer to gusts, Hugh.

Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground said that Larry had 118 mph sustained winds at landfall. How 118 mph sustained winds generate 175 mph gusts, I dont know. Is that normal or is something way off here?


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Wingman51
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Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Myles]
      #64730 - Tue Mar 21 2006 07:38 AM

OK -- -- Major spring storm in Central US, Tornado breakout, Typhoon in Australia - - And Accuweather on network TV stating that the Northeast is staring "down the barrel of a gun" for this season. They are quoting a statistic that average SST's are running at 12 degrees above normal and therefore we are in for a "very bad" season, and it wasn't even "doom and gloom" Joe? Any merit or anything new in this prediction over Dr. Gray analysis? :?:

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HanKFranK
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Wingman51]
      #64731 - Tue Mar 21 2006 01:44 PM

i'll go check that out later... they've got three video links up on their homepage. actually saw an excerpt of a bastardi interview on fox last night, not sure under what context as it was a fleeting sort of thing.
i will say this. Accuweather called the central gulf coast last year and that prediction came through in a really awful fashion. getting the northeast right would be a much greater achievement as the probability of a hit up there is low in any given year, but a major event when it does happen. i was already thinking this would be an east coast year (since the la nina phase is kicked in and gulf years don't usually run back to back), so it doesn't seem too farfetched to me.
HF 1844z21march

the reports say that bastardi thinks we're in a part of a cycle that will produce a major hit on the northeast in the next five years or so. the 'it could happen this year' is more of a hook for the story. statistically speaking the five year window isn't a bad bet, though calling a particular year for the northeast is a longshot.
-HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Mar 21 2006 05:03 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64732 - Tue Mar 21 2006 06:00 PM

The reports changed quite substantially today. The previous reports said that it would happen this year; sensing the flak they were taking within the community, everything today has said within 5 years.

The chart that they are using as their main evidence is substantially flawed. I could point them all out to everyone, but I think you all can find them without any intervention: http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=nehurr4

There is no real scientific basis for their correlations or their predictions; the only thing they are successfully able to do with it is to throw it up against the wall and seeing if it will stick.

This is the full article -- note no mention of "within 5 years" for the NE US -- http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=nehurr

I'm splitting hairs here now, but if they wanted something to be taken seriously, it'd help if they got the number of storms right for 2005 (in the article they list 26 name storms and 14 hurricanes...there were 27 hurricanes: "According to Accuweather.com, the 2006 tropical storm season will still be more active than normal, but less active than last year, with fewer storms than 2005's record 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes.").

In reality, they aren't saying a whole lot with their "announcement."

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Clark]
      #64733 - Tue Mar 21 2006 07:56 PM

Do you all remember what most said at this time last year?"2005 will be above normal but not as bad as 2004".Sound familiar???

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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HanKFranK
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64734 - Wed Mar 22 2006 12:30 AM

the chart with the el nino events and hurricane positions is a bit off. i'd noticed that the ENSO periods were sometimes a little off and seemed cherry-picked (i.e., where's the extended 1991-94 event? bob wouldn't fit well into the pattern). finding a 'climatology' for new england storms is a real task, as the period of reliable records you'd need to analyze in-season patterns for such strikes is short and only covers events back to the middle of last century. it's also possible for a fall synoptic setup that favors a strike up there to simply 'miss' the hurricanes.. 2003 gives a good example, with longtracker isabel moving inland in north carolina still charging northwest, then baroclinically induced juan less than two weeks later speeding due north into nova scotia. a slightly different timing or synoptic setup of either storm could have produced a significant hurricane hit in the northeast.
in the near term, recent running averages of SOI have been strongly positive, so the idea that la nina will dominate the circulation regime during the coming summer is a sound one. in the last decade or so, that has been coupled with a well-established trough near the northeast u.s. that has served to cause a high number of recurvatures or allowed glancing hits to the north carolina coast. if i had to throw money down it would be for more of the same--longtrackers and mostly recurvatures.
HF 0530z22march


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Wingman51
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64735 - Wed Mar 22 2006 08:09 AM

Thanks for the insight and the rational analysis - - I also noticed the "recurvature" of the comments from "this year" to "within the next 5 years" - - that actually happened between 2 AM TV appearences by on of the "experts" - - on GMA it was this year, on FAX later in the morning, it was within the next 5 years. In his defense, neither of the appearances included "doom and Gloom" Joe.

Looking at what has been posted here since the end of last season, and the current features, I tend to agree with the analysis that favors the East coast pattern which would be a blessing to our friends in the Gulf region. My concern here in Fl is that soo many people did not take Wilma seriously last year that we may again be facing a time of apathy concerning any major event for FL. That really amazes me - - here in St. Cloud, one only has to look at the stumps of ancient trees and the abundance of "blue roofs" to remember Charlie, Frances and Jeanne. Oh well - - season still 2 months away but never too early to begin preparations.


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Clark
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64736 - Wed Mar 22 2006 04:28 PM

It's a very subtle distinction within the synoptic pattern that leads to an impact to New England as opposed to the Canadian Maritimes...essentially, if you shift everything a little bit further west and make it just a touch weaker, you come pretty close to explaining it. Further back in time, there's not a whole lot different between the two. There is a little bit of skill with climate indices in the medium and medium-long term (30 to about 75 days) with the resultant synoptic patterns as well as one month's worth of activity...plus some hints in the tracks (about half are deep tropics storms that directly impact the NE; the other half come up through the US or along the coastline from the Gulf or NW Caribbean) but not a whole lot otherwise and almost assuredly nothing on these long time scales.

A bit of statistics: in the period 1970-2003, there were only 22 storms to impact New England. It's hard to draw a lot of statistically significant correlations with that short of a data set as the variance in the synoptic and climatic patterns is relatively large. It can be done, but it's not a signal like the Accuweather charts are showing.

For instance, with the chart posted a few posts up...why are 1991 and 1992 missing? 1991 had a significant impact to the NE US -- exactly what they are predicting! -- with Hurricane Bob, while 1992 had a significant impact to Florida and the Gulf with Hurricane Andrew. That's exactly the opposite of what they are trying to show here. Another case: 2004 had a lot of East Coast/Gulf impacts, but none of those are mentioned. Another: 1998 had Hurricane Bonnie, a 95kt hurricane at landfall, impact North Carolina pretty substantially. It's not included, but weaker storms such as Earl and Erin are -- why? It's just an example of manipulating the statistics. HF already touched on some of the ENSO signals being off, so I won't go further on that point.

AccuWeather also mentioned -- on national TV this time -- that SSTs were 12F over normal in some regions of the Atlantic today. The key is understanding that it that it is confined to a very, very small region of the NW Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml), where an eddy off of the loop current has likely contributed to a short-lived warm anomaly this season. Further, it's a difference over last year, where the NW Gulf was a couple of degrees (Celcius) below average at this time as a result of a cooler synoptic pattern across the region. As compared to climatology, almost all of the rest of the basin is right about at average right now. So, while their statement is technically correct, it requires a lot of clarification and is generally misleading so as to support the point that they are trying to make.

Just my two cents.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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ltpat228
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New England As A Topic..? [Re: Clark]
      #64747 - Thu Mar 23 2006 07:07 PM

Why all this yapping about NE?
Florida equals tropics equals hurricanes.
Period.


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HanKFranK
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64750 - Thu Mar 23 2006 09:02 PM

well pat, aside from florida there are seventeen other states on with coastlines on the gulf and atlantic that get hit sometimes, too. believe it or not, that happened just last year in louisiana.
trust me, new england is a big topic. there's a lot of population and infrastructure up there that is vulnerable in ways that a lot of more southern coastlines aren't, and a hit up there is always a big-ticket item. they are overdue.
HF 0201z24march


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Lee-Delray
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64752 - Thu Mar 23 2006 09:19 PM

The Wall Street Journal talked about insurance companies dropping policy holders on Cape Cod, Rhode Island and 8 counties in NY because of the potential risk. It also mentioned that rates were going up in 49 states because the reinsurers are charging the insurance companies more due to the increase in storms and intensities.

Everyone pays.


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Randrew
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64753 - Fri Mar 24 2006 01:17 AM

I agree Pat. Sorry, HF...I understand the NE is past due.....but in the SE we will be the first to know!

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ltpat228
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64754 - Fri Mar 24 2006 08:00 AM

Quote:

well pat, aside from florida there are seventeen other states on with coastlines on the gulf and atlantic that get hit sometimes, too. believe it or not, that happened just last year in louisiana.
HF 0201z24march




After Andrew, officials stated we'd get a hurricane of that magnitude once every 100 years. We all thought we'd endured the Big One in our life time...our kids and grand children, too. 2004 terrifically messed us up...then of course, there was Katrina.

In my opinion, no one is "overdue" for a catastrophic visit from Mother Nature.

New England simply doesn't play in the overall picture of probabilites for a massive tropical hurricane. NE is taking off from my area...my state...worrying and charging (over charging???) home owners for something which has yet to occur.......


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HanKFranK
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64755 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:29 AM

pat, there's a recurrence interval for every section of coast for the u.s. new england, again, gets hit every 15-20 years on average. in the last quarter century hurricanes bob and gloria hit up there at cat 2--both had been stronger and were moving quickly, so their impact was significant. further back, hurricane donna hit the area still at a potent 2, hurricane carol put 10 feet of water in downtown providence in 1954, and you may have heard of a little hurricane in 1938 which ran over long island, flooded the whole coast even more, had measured wind speeds over 120mph and gusts over 180, and killed more than 600 people? there were others back in the 19th century not very unlike these listed (though the '38 hurricane might be the strongest of the lot).
a hurricane of that magnitude running over new england has south-facing bays it can drive surges into, with huge populations in low-lying areas, construction designed to handle factors other than hurricane winds, and if it puts down much rain, an older, post-glacial surface that generates a ton of runoff and can cause massive flooding much more easily than the sandy coastal plains along southern coasts.
did i mention that a big one coming near new york city could theoretically put a surge into the tunnels and subways in and around the city, shatter a ton of high-rise glass, and otherwise cripple the city? naw, i'd say those insurance guys are covering their butts.
HF 1428z24march


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Lee-Delray
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64756 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:40 AM

The insurance guys are running scared now. With $56 billion in insurable losses in 2005, they're going to limit their exposure. Don't be surprised if The Wall Street Journal article I mentioned before is 100% correct.

I can also see insurers in the NE exclude hurricane damage on most policies.

I live in a homeowners association (delray Beach, FL) our only common buildings are a guard house and a fitness center. We were dropped and have to go to Citizien's Insurance with a very limited coverage. I hope USAA doesn't drop me this year.


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Lisa NC
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Re: New England As A Topic..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64757 - Fri Mar 24 2006 09:41 AM

Although Florida is in the cross-hairs and more likely to receive a direct hit from a hurricane, a strike in New England from even a low cat 3 would have a major effect. This is record to the 1938 hurricane that hit Connecticut http://www.southstation.org/hurr1.htm . The Unisys weather site says it was extratropical but it still twisted train tracks and caused major flooding and destroyed many homes.
Please think about the fact that there are other areas that could be affected by hurricanes and the loss of life could be greater than in your area. Trying to get people in those areas aware of the possiblity could save lives.

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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MapMaster
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Re: Speaking of things to the north [Re: Lisa NC]
      #64758 - Fri Mar 24 2006 10:44 AM

What's up at 40N/40W??

MM


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Bloodstar
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Re: Speaking of things to the north [Re: MapMaster]
      #64759 - Fri Mar 24 2006 03:56 PM

Looks like a cold coreish deep low. Also appears to be heading off to the ENE so won't have time to transition to a tropical or sub tropical storm, though phase analysis does have it briefly warmcore (if not partially warmcore alread) for the next 24 - 36 hours.

Unless something dramatic and unexpected happens, nothing much to worry about.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Accuweather Prognostication???? [Re: Clark]
      #64764 - Fri Mar 24 2006 11:36 PM

As Clark mentioned. There is some debate on the SST anomaly in the GOM. I have seen several print articles with different anomalies listed. The 12 dgeree anomaly is the highest one that I've seen thus far.

I use Dr Nan Walker's (Project Director) site at LSU for my GOM SST information.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/home/
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/image_archives/

This site lags a few days behind the Navy and NOAA, due to workdays and data delay.
The most current map for this month is the 15th of March, 2006.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2006-03/g12%2E060315%2Ecomp%2Esstsshcl%2Egif

Compare with the same calendar week from last year.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/CMI-GOES/2005-03/g12%2E050313%2Ecomp%2Esstsshcl%2Egif
Note: the numbers shown on the contour intervals, are Sea Surface Height anomaly in centimeters. This is in correlation with the Sea Surface Temperature-SST under the contours.
( You may have to browse a few days before or after the date to get a cloud free image. Image are slow to load on DSL. May take quite a bit longer on dialup connections.~danielw)

Here's a link to the prestorm SSTs for Ivan '04, Katrina '05 and Rita '05.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/publications/images/PreStorms.gif

Edited by danielw (Fri Mar 24 2006 11:53 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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SSTs, Nowcast and forecast [Re: danielw]
      #64769 - Sat Mar 25 2006 09:36 PM

This is a site that I just discovered. It contains quite a large number of graphical representations of the SSTs. Current and out to 120 hours (5 days).
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/products.shtml?

NW Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico page.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/products_hurr.shtml

Note the Disclaimer. "Although the RTOFS (Atlantic) is an operational model, we cannot guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of the model data and figures offered on this site.
Please see our disclaimer for more information."
http://weather.gov/disclaimer.php


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Margie
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Hi all [Re: danielw]
      #64770 - Sun Mar 26 2006 02:02 AM

Returning tomorrow from a week on the MS coast. Went to IHC for the two days of technical but not-as-technical-as-Monterey talks, just my speed, and met a lot of mets, including most of the NHC contingent.

Later in the week I did make it over to Hancock and Harrison Counties. No surprises anywhere...having spent so much time reviewing the NOAA aerial images. Debris cleanup going well. Waveland is still slabs (Coleman Ave converted though with many tents). Clermont Harbor and Lakeshore look like they are completely gone (if you didn't know a community was there, you could drive right by the trees and marsh on Beach Blvd and not know), but then I didn't drive inland to see if anything was left by the railroad tracks. I don't know if it is just that I'm older, but Waveland seems so tiny, much smaller than on the map. With nothing but slabs and trees, and the occasional FEMA trailer, it seems oddly open, and more like a tiny park than a city. None of the tiny debris littering the trees, grass, and sides of the roadway in any of the counties has been picked up yet, giving everything a sad look, coupled with many bare trees that were too damaged to produce any leaves this year. No place looked as bad as Porteaux Bay, though. Hardly any headway has been made there except to remove the major debris from houses that were demolished by surge.

I stopped by Biloxi and saw Frank P and the two basset hounds, briefly. And the famous shutters. Frank is hanging out on s2k these days, where he says he spends most of his time disagreeing with Derek (upon brief inspection, appears to be the case ).

I'll try to find a way to get some of my photos online (any good ideas email me, I'm not that web-savvy).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


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New blog [Re: Margie]
      #64772 - Sun Mar 26 2006 03:04 AM

Posted a new blog to the main page, another installment in the learning series -- this time on the cyclone phase diagrams. Might be a little choppy given the hour, so please let me know if you have any questions or would like clarification on something highlighted in there.

I've got one more in the pipeline for (hopefully) later this week on tropical cyclone track & steering flow influences, then will likely go back on sabbatical on those until closer to the tropical season. Unfortunately, I just have too much else to get done offline (e.g. this -- http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_108576.htm) in the near-future to write up a lot else. The season itself should be a bit better for interaction, however, assuming we don't all get burned out with another 30 classified entities...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Hi all [Re: Margie]
      #64774 - Sun Mar 26 2006 03:09 AM

We went to Gulfport yesterday. Went down on Beach Hwy. I could not beleive what I saw. had seen it on tv but when you see it for yourself that has a whole different meaning. I went thru the 9th ward in NO in Nov and saw the damage. In my opinion I beleive that Ms. was hit harder. Look like bombs droped.

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Frank P
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Re: Hi all [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #64775 - Sun Mar 26 2006 12:07 PM

I hear ya Hurricane Fred... I'm living on the beach in Biloxi in my tiny little FEMA trailer and see it every darn day, and I'm still amazed and its still hard for me to believe.... the MS coast has been wiped off the face of the earth, at least everything within several blocks of the beach along Biloxi and Gulfport.. and along the bay and rivers, as you go more to the west - Long Beach, Pass, Bay St. L and Waveland... the total devastation goes inland for many many blocks...... they are razing down everything, very few structures will remain... its so incredible..

I did meet Margie and her mom yesterday... hey gang she's much nicer in person than online... hehe.... it was nice of her to pay me a visit... her mom was very nice to... sometimes you have to separate science from reality... I'm living in the reality of the aftermath of one of the greatest storm surges in recorded history... I don't care about how fast the winds blew, or how the storm weakened as it came onshore, or they downgraded it to a Cat 3... Bottom line, it was a surge of unprecedented records... and cause more damage than any other storm in history and it still is hard for me to believe that Im right in the middle of it still

My official surge per NOAA was 25.72 inches, with the highest along the coast at Pass with 35 feet, Beau at 25 feet and Bay St. Louis at 28 feet.. the ~26 feet at my neighborhood sounds about right from the water marks left in the destroyed houses... it could have been a couple of feet higher but it really doesn't matter... 12 of 13 homes on the block were completely destroyed... the other in quite bad shape but fixable..

Here is the NOAA link to the Katrina Impact Assessment report for those interested in the surge levels...

http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/website/Katrina_Harrison/viewer.htm


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Margie
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Re: Hi all [Re: Frank P]
      #64776 - Sun Mar 26 2006 04:33 PM

Quote:

hey gang she's much nicer in person than online... hehe....





Just remember, being accurate is not the same as not being nice!

Quote:

Bottom line, it was a surge of unprecedented records...

My official surge per NOAA was 25.72 inches, with the highest along the coast at Pass with 35 feet, Beau at 25 feet and Bay St. Louis at 28 feet..




Yes, it was.

Say, Frank, just so you know, you can't go by those HWM numbers on the Impact Assessment. They were put on that map before FEMA's contractor completed the analysis and weeded out the bad ones, and never cleaned up. The highest HWM are in the neighborhood of 25 ft.

I didn't recall a 35-ft mark there, and I've spent quite a bit of time going over that data; when I went back to the GIS data, I realized that is a typo on the Impact Assessment map (being so out of range, it stands out like a sore thumb). If you look at KMSC-04-10, which, from the lat/lon readings is clearly that point, the surge is 25.0 (and since these were rounded off on this spreadsheet, may have started out as 24.95 to 24.99), not 34.9, and that point is marked "off" and is not used in the analysis.

Here is the link to the spreadsheet of GIS data:

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/xls/katrina_ms_hwm.xls

If you go to the FEMA web site they have the same set of HWM with the bad ones eliminated, and this gives a more accurate handle on the actual storm tide. There is also an overview map showing the general heights of the storm tide, and this does a nice job of giving a big picture of the overall distribution of the water heights along the coast (although I have some issues with moving in the curve so quickly at Lakeshore/Clermont Harbor area).

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/katrina_ms_maps.shtm

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/pdf/ms_overview.pdf


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hi all [Re: Frank P]
      #64777 - Sun Mar 26 2006 09:17 PM

I thought that I had a good grasp on the High Water Marks. But now I'm slightly confused.
The 25.72ft that FrankP mentioned minus the 14ft elevation above sea level at his front yard. Gives me a water depth (surge?) of 11.72ft. Which seems consistant with the damage to his house.
Please PM me if I'm missing the math.


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64779 - Mon Mar 27 2006 09:42 AM

For anyone interested, the Palm Beach Post ran an interesting article over the weekend on the 2006 hurricane season. No real news, just interesting.


http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/local_news/epaper/2006/03/26/m1a_LANINA_0326.html


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Hi all [Re: danielw]
      #64780 - Mon Mar 27 2006 10:03 AM

Quote:

I thought that I had a good grasp on the High Water Marks. But now I'm slightly confused.
The 25.72ft that FrankP mentioned minus the 14ft elevation above sea level at his front yard. Gives me a water depth (surge?) of 11.72ft. Which seems consistant with the damage to his house.
Please PM me if I'm missing the math.



No that water mark was a good one. It was the 35 ft one in the Pass that was wrong.

You have the elevation right...14 ft in the front yard, 16 ft at the slab, the 18 foot mark starts a little further back on Frank's property. But the reason the house is gone is mainly due to wave runup and current. It is easy for water to get inside; once water is inside and outside the pressure equalizes and the house will remain standing (like 80% of the homes in Pascagoula which are destroyed inside by being subjected to five feet of salt water, but look almost perfectly normal from the outside). What happens in the velocity zone is that repeated pounding will remove the structure of the home from its footings, and eventually the first floor shifts and quickly collapses. The second floor can sometimes stay mostly together as Frank's did, riding along on top of the water and debris, coming to rest when the water level subsides (as his did, further back from the beachfront). More usually it is just the roof that will stay together.

One thing Stephen Baig mentioned to me was that depending on which elevation reference you use, and how old it is, it might be a little high, because of continuing subsidence along the entire Gulf Coast. FEMA used NAVD 88 as the reference, but they also used LIDAR data from 2004 to do the surge inundation maps. This could be like comparing apples and oranges, but I am not sure. It would be good to find an expert in this area to provide some feedback (anybody know any surveyors?).

Here is more detail on the way the mapping was done:

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/pdf/katrina_ms_methods.pdf

And here is an FAQ from the NGS:

http://www.ngs.noaa.gov/faq.shtml#WhatVD29VD88


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ltpat228
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64781 - Mon Mar 27 2006 02:37 PM

Thank you, Lee, for turning me on to the article in the PB Post.
Obviously as you and I live 1 hour apart and have suffered much devastation these last 2 hurricane seasons, local comments like your link displayed are always comforting and informative.
I'm only 50 miles up the road from ya if FEMA gets the ice to my area first this year...ha ha!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64782 - Mon Mar 27 2006 06:28 PM

This time in 2004 we would have laughed at that article and wondered who FEMA was.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64783 - Tue Mar 28 2006 09:26 AM

Here's another that was on yahoo today about the Northeast.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060328/ap_on_sc/northeast_hurricane


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ZooKeeper
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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #64784 - Tue Mar 28 2006 12:49 PM

Hello Glenda! Looks like the Aussies are expecting Round Two. I've got some friends down under that are currently preparing for this one.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

--------------------
The storm that began a lifelong facination: Donna 1960 (Eyewall)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Ouch [Re: ZooKeeper]
      #64787 - Thu Mar 30 2006 09:11 AM Attachment (289 downloads)

Look at this microwave image of Glenda just before landfall (attached). Ooooee.

Good surge pic:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/

I liked this site -- be sure to read the article "Bureau's Wind Speed Hot Air."
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18661726%255E2702,00.html

And here is a sat image from Japan:

http://images.wn.com/i/f2/76372a7acfae4b.jpg

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by danielw (Sat Apr 01 2006 09:48 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64791 - Thu Mar 30 2006 02:38 PM

Ok here is the deal. I contacted NCDDC (btw Frank they are at Stennis, too...any questions just track down Russ Beard), and they responded promptly, and that 35 ft mark is a wave mark, practically on top of a 25 ft surge mark, probably hiding the surge mark on the map (these were likely a pair of indoor/outdoor marks). Both were thrown out by FEMA. NCDDC is in the process of adding another layer to the impact tool to hide all those marks that were thrown out; that layer was not available in the original data they received from FEMA.

Ten feet of wave runup at that location is not beyond the range of reasonable possibility, but it is towards the tail end of the distribution. If you recall videos from Gulfport and Biloxi both showed no significantly high wave runup, which is not surprising given the shallow water in the sound. I will post again if I can ever get hold of the FEMA contractor notes showing why they threw out the numbers (there will be some reason as to why they were considered not valid).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Another South Atlantic TC?? [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #64792 - Thu Mar 30 2006 05:27 PM

The Sun-Sentinel has another article.

www.sun-sentinel.com

My 35KW generator came today (whew).

(For some reason the above link isn't working. Click the link, and then copy and paste the whole URL into your browser. Then hit enter. That will give you the Hurricane Season story~danielw)]/i]

Edited by Lee-Delray (Thu Mar 30 2006 08:39 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64793 - Thu Mar 30 2006 07:55 PM

Quote:

...and that 35 ft mark is a wave mark, practically on top of a 25 ft surge mark, probably hiding the surge mark on the map (these were likely a pair of indoor/outdoor marks). Both were thrown out by FEMA. NCDDC is in the process of adding another layer to the impact tool to hide all those marks that were thrown out; that layer was not available in the original data they received from FEMA.

...I will post again if I can ever get hold of the FEMA contractor notes showing why they threw out the numbers (there will be some reason as to why they were considered not valid).




FEMA might have thrown that 35ft mark out due to the fact it would seriously change the New Flood Maps. And the height of the new freeboard for homes and businesses. 35 foot above sea level wouldn't allow many, if any, buildings south of the Railroad tracks-Coastwide.


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LadyStorm
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: danielw]
      #64794 - Fri Mar 31 2006 05:30 AM

FEMA might have thrown that 35ft mark out due to the fact it would seriously change the New Flood Maps. And the height of the new freeboard for homes and businesses. 35 foot above sea level wouldn't allow many, if any, buildings south of the Railroad tracks-Coastwide.

Just curious, Ormond Beach (my current home) is 33ft above sea level. I guess we are in deep dew dew.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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HanKFranK
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: LadyStorm]
      #64795 - Fri Mar 31 2006 08:42 AM

i think margie is right... a 35' HWM wouldn't be consistent with what the rest of the data says about surge heights in the area, or with what I generally saw. 25' looks/sounds about right, with wave action in areas.
there was an interesting phenomenon that i was guessing had to do with wave action as well, as many of the pine trees i saw near waveland had their cones missing below a certain height... what i'd roughly guess was between 30-40'. as i don't suspect the mean surge height was quite that high, mentally chalked it up as a proxy for wave action. it was a very disturbing thing to see, regardless.
might need a new thread soon. the dr. klotzbach (formerly dr. gray) forecast from csu will be out next week, i believe. yep, april 4.
HF 1342z31march


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Margie
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64796 - Fri Mar 31 2006 10:20 AM

I went back and read the FEMA methodology again, and the on/off flag is an indicator of whether the HWM was used in determining surge inundation or not. Wave HWM are never used in determining inundation. The reason the surge HWM was dropped out is unknown, but it is in the same range as other nearby HWM, so that didn't change anything one way or the other.

Here is part of an email I received from FEMA's contractor last year based on questions I had about the specifics of determining the surge inundation:

"The Katrina surge inundation limits were mapped solely based on high water marks (HWMs) surveyed after the storm and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) topographic data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2004. More than 400 HWMs were collected in the 3 Gulf counties of Mississippi, an unprecendented number of post-storm points for an unprecedented storm. The 400+ HWMs consist of points reflecting surge-only flooding and points that include local wave effects (wave heights and wave runup). Tide was not factored out of any HWM elevation. To map Katrina's surge inundation, we used the surge-only points and mapped/labeled all of these points on the Katrina Recovery Maps."

"...The detailed appearance of the inundation limit that you perceive is more a function of the high resolution of the LIDAR data than the HWMs. In other words, we're very certain of our ground elevations to a high degree of precision, but there is inherent variability and uncertainty in the HWMs, hence our reference to the inundation limits as "approximate." That's not to say the HWMs are not accurate -- each point surveyed was required to be +/- 0.25 foot."

Actually the ABFEs that temporarily replace the existing FIRMs, before the new FIRMs are in place, are a lot lower than would be required to prevent flooding from Katrina. But they are a lot better than the ones FEMA had been working on for the last couple years, which had to be thrown out completely, because they were as much of a sham as the existing FIRMs from the 80s (which were all to the advantage of the insurance companies, which subsequently would not have to pay out very much when the 'big one' came).

Still, these new ABFEs are having trouble being accepted by many coastal communities. A lot of places simply don't want to have to build up at all, because it will change the look of the community.

HF -- yes, 15 foot waves on top of 25 feet of surge is possible for the Waveland area. But pine trees bend, and possibly they were bent under by the force of the current, rather than hit by waves. Hopefully over the next couple months I'll be able to obtain more specifics on that.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Randrew
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Re: Pine trees in Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64797 - Fri Mar 31 2006 05:40 PM

I haven't visited there since before Katrina. I am curious as to what pines you speak of. Depends what variety will bend and what will uproot in this situation.
I'm thinking most of the pines there are southern slash pines. If that would be the case then they would mostly be uprooted except for the males. They would be brutes and withstand almost anything.
Mostly the old oaks are the important indicator here. If they survived Camille then this would not be a problem for them.
If you want a true HWM then check out the oaks that are still standing.
My two cents as an old Florida farmer.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Pine trees in Pass [Re: Randrew]
      #64798 - Fri Mar 31 2006 07:37 PM Attachment (284 downloads)

I looked at all the oaks along the coast. Quite a few of them were not sprouting any leaves at all this spring. A number of those still looked green because of all the mistletoe in them. Some had both mistletoe and a little bit of sprouting.

There are so many with extreme damage (file attached).

The saddest were the pecan orchards though; so many trees with no leaves at all and I don't know if they will recover next year.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Mar 31 2006 07:48 PM)


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Margie
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Re: Pine trees in Pass [Re: Randrew]
      #64799 - Fri Mar 31 2006 07:41 PM Attachment (247 downloads)

Here are some oaks that are done real bad from the surge (file attached). Both of these photos from Waveland.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Pine trees in Pass [Re: Randrew]
      #64800 - Fri Mar 31 2006 07:47 PM

for the record... the Oaks are doing great... most of the ones in my neighborhood, and we have a plethora, if they we not totally blown down, are doing fine, and all of them had at least 8 feet of salt water at their base, if not more... I have a pecan tree that also is starting to show signs of life, although its leaning about 10 -15 degrees or so, its the only one on the block so all the squirrels should be happy... not sure about my large magnolia... nothing happening with it yet so I'm a littled concerned...

My worse case scenario was that my two majestic Oaks would crash down on my house destroying it during a major storm... Never in my wildest dreams think I'd see a 26 foot surge in my yard... and I had every bit of 26 feet in the neighborhood... FEMA/NOAA said 25.72 inches... duh what's 4 inches or so... my house was 18.5 feet above sea level... my yard/lot where my house stood was 17 feet above sea level..
my next house will be 27 feet above sea level... if I lose that one I'm moving inland 27 miles... Camille & Katrina... that's two strikes for me... I've got one left...


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Frank P
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Re: Pine trees in Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64801 - Fri Mar 31 2006 07:51 PM

these trees will do just fine Margie.. as long as they're sprouting growth most if not all will survive... I do have a wet oak that is not showing any signs of life at all.. and I hope it is dead because I want to cut it down anyways.. but the great live oaks look like they're going to do OK... heck they have been doing this for hundreds of years... what's another storm

Edited by Frank P (Fri Mar 31 2006 10:48 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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GIS Data [Re: Margie]
      #64802 - Fri Mar 31 2006 08:46 PM

Margie, is FEMA posting their GIS data somewhere? I would like to see what they have. FrankP, good to see that you're hanging in up there. Funny thing about those FEMA trailers, some family in my neighborhood who unforntunately lost their roof had a FEMA trailer in their front yard. Well, so far they have decorated it with Christmas lights during the last holiday...had about 3 "outdoor" parties, and barbeque all the time.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: GIS Data [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #64803 - Fri Mar 31 2006 09:49 PM

Quote:

Margie, is FEMA posting their GIS data somewhere?




Yes, everything is on their web site.

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/floods/recoverydata/katrina_ms_gis.shtm

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


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Re: GIS Data [Re: Margie]
      #64804 - Sat Apr 01 2006 01:05 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_travel/200603...DlpBHNlYwMyNjgz

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Randrew
Weather Guru


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Gulf Trees [Re: Margie]
      #64805 - Sat Apr 01 2006 01:48 AM

Thanks for the shots of the trees Margie.
The oaks will mostly survive. Just lots of rain to leach out the salt will speed that up.
Sorry about the Pecans. They might not like all the salts in the SOIl.
I am happy that you were able to see what hurricanes can do to those that have to live through them.
Please remember this....everyone must remember this. It is no joke ....nor is it fun in any way.
People lose their homes and their lives and everything is forever changed by these storms.
If those that read this happen to live in non-hurricane prone areas.....you have no idea until you live through this. If you live through it!


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danielwAdministrator
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Elevations [Re: Randrew]
      #64806 - Sat Apr 01 2006 09:51 AM

There seems to be quite a bit of discussion on the elevation issue. Too many different datums in use.

These two links are to the IPET web site. They apply mainly to New Orleans and Louisiana. But the datums issue is probably US-wide.

It's a powerpoint presentation on a pdf format.
https://ipet.wes.army.mil/NOHPP/_Post-Ka...port2_final.pdf

Main IPET page for New Orleans.
https://ipet.wes.army.mil/

Hank, I believe that you are the resident GIS person. This should be right up your alley, or bayou.~danielw

i think skeet has me beat at the GIS. i can use the built-in processes well enough, but can't write code.. which is what defines the men from the boys. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Apr 03 2006 11:29 AM)


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Margie
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64814 - Mon Apr 03 2006 10:27 AM

Quote:

might need a new thread soon. the dr. klotzbach (formerly dr. gray) forecast from csu will be out next week, i believe. yep, april 4.
HF 1342z31march



Where's the thread set up w/last year's predictions? Yikes, can't find it. Please post a link to it, on this thread?

Any guesses on tomorrow? [Robert Shaw voice from Jaws]: "He'll have to lower the numbers; he'll have to lower them." The Dec forecast was like the beginning of an underdamped feedback loop; a kneejerk reaction to the 2005 season. In spite of weak MJO / La Nina, and NAO trending negative since Feb, and who knows what all else...zillions of other things, right, that I haven't had a chance to learn about yet, how much can all that matter, when SSTs are nothing like last year (2005 did such a good job that the warmth is all up in Greenland, melting ice, LOL, and trying to convince the Gulf Stream conveyor to shut down...be unsurprised, be very unsurprised).

Also, curious, what other groups put out these forecasts besides Klotzbach/Gray, and NOAA?

--------------------
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Margie
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post TC are done! [Re: Margie]
      #64817 - Mon Apr 03 2006 01:58 PM

Beta just out...that's the last one! Have to go read it now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL262005_Beta.pdf

It was fair, without going into specifics (why dwell on it, I guess). It did say that the GDFL generally outperformed the official track forecasts. But it was the models in general that kept pushing for the westward movement too early. Do you think that there is an internal process to look at these kinds of cases in more detail (i.e. anticipating the ridging more accurately)?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Apr 03 2006 02:06 PM)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64818 - Mon Apr 03 2006 04:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

might need a new thread soon. the dr. klotzbach (formerly dr. gray) forecast from csu will be out next week, i believe. yep, april 4.
HF 1342z31march



Where's the thread set up w/last year's predictions? Yikes, can't find it. Please post a link to it, on this thread?

Any guesses on tomorrow? [Robert Shaw voice from Jaws]: "He'll have to lower the numbers; he'll have to lower them." The Dec forecast was like the beginning of an underdamped feedback loop; a kneejerk reaction to the 2005 season. In spite of weak MJO / La Nina, and NAO trending negative since Feb, and who knows what all else...zillions of other things, right, that I haven't had a chance to learn about yet, how much can all that matter, when SSTs are nothing like last year (2005 did such a good job that the warmth is all up in Greenland, melting ice, LOL, and trying to convince the Gulf Stream conveyor to shut down...be unsurprised, be very unsurprised).

Also, curious, what other groups put out these forecasts besides Klotzbach/Gray, and NOAA?




MArgie
Here is a link to the UK forecast. The next one to come out will be April 6.
UK Forecast


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Clark
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Re: that HWM in the Pass [Re: Margie]
      #64819 - Mon Apr 03 2006 04:42 PM

Here are the forecasts everyone posted after last season for this year: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=64437&an=0&page=0#64437

Unfortunately, the full thread is somewhere in the 2005 Storm Forum, which seems to be acting up right now.

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HanKFranK
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no change [Re: Clark]
      #64820 - Tue Apr 04 2006 02:48 AM

already online is the new csu team forecast, which is exactly the same as what they issued in december. in other words, the sentement is unchanged.. we're in for another heavy year. the probabilities of a major hit are given higher than average over the entire u.s. coast, though significantly higher along the atlantic seaboard. this sounds reasonable to me.
margie already noted the release of that last storm report for beta on monday. the only other updates left for the NHC guys are to post the big map of tracks on the reports page (which ought to be one heck of a tangle, and may require extra effort), and the changes to the storm names based on whatever the wmo decides to do about retirement (which may have already happened but is imminent if not).
that's a wrap on the goings on. with winter behind us the coming hurricane season feels tangibly closer. will have to update the thread before too long.
HF 0644z04april


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LONNY307
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Re: no change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64824 - Tue Apr 04 2006 08:28 AM

Yep. I read some of it to this morning. They are suppose to change the scheme for landfalls in the May 31 update. I don't think it will be even close to last year. Mainly in intensity. It's like a football game. More storms will form on there own 20 yard line. Or even on 5-10 yard line. The chances of a touchdown are greatly reduced. Last year they started on there own 40 or the other teams 40 or even 30 yard line. Alot easier to make a touchdown. Another words more of a cape verde season which wasn't there last year. More time to curve.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: no change [Re: LONNY307]
      #64825 - Tue Apr 04 2006 09:47 AM

So would this mean se fl will be more at risk?That they may curve up this way as opposed to going into the Yucatan and the gulf.Even though we got hit twice last year,Katrina became a cane just off shore,And Wilma came from the west.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MapMaster
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Re: no change [Re: LONNY307]
      #64826 - Tue Apr 04 2006 10:03 AM

Lonny-

Don't count on it....sounds like Margie saying the numbers would go down (they may, but not yet).

Sounds like 'whistling past the graveyard'...it's an old saying, no one get offended.

It'll be busy, and bad, and I expect as many landfalls as last year, and not necessarily of lesser intensity...some will be in different places, but based on weak la nina/neutral years, Florida and the east coast are in for it...Tx and La, remain to be seen.

There'll be enough to go around....

MM


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lonny307
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Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64833 - Tue Apr 04 2006 12:59 PM

No. More like fishes. I think the Carribean is in trouble this year. The longer the track the better the chance of a fish. Doesn't mean a storm can't get under the trof but a better chance then last year. Where not even the TUTT was present most of the season.

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Unplugged
Unregistered




Re: no change [Re: lonny307]
      #64835 - Tue Apr 04 2006 03:32 PM

>>No. More like fishes. I think the Carribean is in trouble this year. The longer the track the better the chance of a fish. Doesn't mean a storm can't get under the trof but a better chance then last year. Where not even the TUTT was present most of the season.

Last year's TUTT was interesting as it existed along with trof splitting on the NA Continent. That was a combo year (neutral) setup if ever there was one. Now I've noticed trofs are splitting still this year with a mean position even further west than what they were last year (TX/MN at the height). Whether or not any permanent TUTT sets up in the Atlantic (or even periodically) remains to be seen for the season as does the probability of recurvature. My thinking so far this year, and I haven't done almost any research so it's FWIW, is that there will probably be a multiple-hit season including splits between the Gulf and East Coast. I don't want to jump the gun without reading all the pro takes out there in April and May, but with indications of an already strong Atlantic High building, the shot at long trackers is better than average. It's just a wait and see game now.

Steve


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lonny307
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Re: no change [Re: Unplugged]
      #64837 - Tue Apr 04 2006 05:21 PM

Anyone that has read Grey and associates April update. Could you please help me in understanding the values in table 1 in association with enhancing or decreasing hurricane activity. To me it doesn't make sense because a (-) in predictor 1 means decreased hurricane activity while it is saying La Nina.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: no change [Re: lonny307]
      #64842 - Tue Apr 04 2006 10:46 PM

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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HanKFranK
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Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64843 - Wed Apr 05 2006 01:07 AM

bob, i guess it's possible, but those are some long odds. as far as getting the storms here once they form... part of me wants to think that will depend on how strong la nina gets. in a lot of the recent la nina seasons where the signal was strong most of the storms developed, peaked, and recurved well out in the atlantic. in during the 1996-2001 (sans 1997) span of la ninas the most frequently affected area was the outer banks of nc. the la nina was developing in 1995 (not mature), again with a large number of recurvatures. 2003-2005 has been mostly neutral/warm. should the la nina circulation become well developed i'd think it unlikely we'll see the peculiar circulation features that led to florida's pummeling in 2004 and the assault in the gulf in 2005.
can't get the csu forecast page to load to look at the chosen analog years. if i recall they fit the mold of recent la nina seasons, mostly. all winter i've been eyeballing the developing la nina, thinking of the return to the strike threat in eastern north carolina, with maybe the odd storm getting into the gulf. mostly though, recurvatures, storms clipping the ne caribbean, and maybe a good shellacking out at bermuda up to sable island. i'll try to refine my moonshine-quality ideas a little more when we do updates on our season forecasts in may.
HF 0506z05april


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64844 - Wed Apr 05 2006 02:02 PM

Your point is indeed something to ponder and we may be entering a unique era. While some of us think outside the box, the toughest part can often be in defining the box itself. Was 2005 the peak of the current cycle of high activity? Will the numbers decrease in 2006, only to increase again in 2007? In 1933 we had 21 storms (and if we had satellite at that time, I wonder what the real numbers would have been?). In 1934 the total decreased to 11. In 1995 we has 19 storms followed by 13 in 1996. Will a new record be set in a year or two? No real way of knowing until those seasons become history. My personal thought is that 2005 was a once in a century event, but I have no science to base that on (except for history itself).
Cheers,
ED


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: no change [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64845 - Wed Apr 05 2006 05:53 PM

Quote:

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.




Here is my thing. If i'm not mistaken and someone correct me if i'm wrong in the April 2005 forecast by Dr. Gray he had it at 13/7/3. This same time for 2006 he has it 17/9/5. And he is saying that it won't be as bad as last year. Why is that and the numbers are higher this year tan last?


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Bloodstar
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Re: no change [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #64846 - Wed Apr 05 2006 07:20 PM

Quote:

Quote:

What really bothers me is the fact that they said all this last year at this time."Won't be as bad as 2004".That to me is very important to note.If this year is even close to last year,than we really need to throw away the books.Maybe now is the time for the experts to think outside of the box.Will they be saying in 2007 that there is no way it wil be as bad as 2006.This is something that the experts have not been through.I don't want to be an alarmest,but I think we all need to realize that we maybe be in something that is new to ALL of us.Something to ponder.




Here is my thing. If i'm not mistaken and someone correct me if i'm wrong in the April 2005 forecast by Dr. Gray he had it at 13/7/3. This same time for 2006 he has it 17/9/5. And he is saying that it won't be as bad as last year. Why is that and the numbers are higher this year tan last?




I think this can be chalked up to the idea that 2005 was a stastical anomoly. The initial numbers are higher, but the current thought is... "Last year was a fluke." I personally am hoping that 2005 will be a 'stastical outlier' but... I'm still holding to my (even to my mind) outrageous prediction for 2006. Except near the US coast, water tempratures seem to be running about a degree (Farenheight) above average. We will have to see if that holds into the summer.

Even though i wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.


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Margie
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Re: no change [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64847 - Wed Apr 05 2006 08:59 PM

Quote:

Even though i wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?

-Mark



In a way...I have not stopped being involved with Katrina in some form on a daily basis since about August 25th last year. I'm not fatigued necessarily. I feel like I'm on a journey, and if I stopped and didn't complete that journey, I wouldn't be able to live with myself. If everything works out for the best, I'll be able to do some good.

My family was affected, and that has affected me. For awhile wasn't even sure if my brother was going to hold up and make it through the year (law enforcement has been slammed and are more shorthanded than ever, and no end in sight). A couple weeks ago, visited my hometown (Pascagoula), saw the new work on my momma's house and my brother's house. Drove along the coast, and, remarkably, found what I was looking for (a survivor from Clermont Harbor).

I realize that it's going to become a little strange this summer. It'll begin my second year of watching hurricanes, in just two months, which, since I've learned a lot, will be a whole new ballpark...but I'll still be doing Katrina research, and even spending my entire vacation down there sometime this summer (three weeks -- oh, and I'm bringing the furball), hoping to be there around the time of the first aniversary, and hoping that I don't have to go through a hurricane while I'm there, and hoping that if I do I'll get the chance to hang out on a DOW truck. :-)

--------------------
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Justin in Miami
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Re: no change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64848 - Wed Apr 05 2006 11:25 PM

HankFrank - My only worry about the La Nina recurve arguement is that a good number of those hurricanes came rather close to the east coast of Florida i.e., Hurricane Floyd. My concern is that considering the tendency the last two seasons for storms to actually make it to the east coast, the La Nina pattern could combine to bring them (possibly more than a couple) to FL and then recurve to NC. Does this reasoning make sense? Dr. Gray's analogs so far this year are 1964, 1996, 1999, and 2003. There were a couple of "close-calls" for Florida and hits to NC, and many close calls for both.

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ltpat228
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Hurricane Fatigue..? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #64849 - Wed Apr 05 2006 11:57 PM

Quote:


Even though I wasn't affected by last summer directly, anyone else still suffering from 'Hurricane Fatigue'?





I am not fatigued at all.
A tad exaspertaed maybe when just 2 weeks ago my carport was finally replaced from hurricane Wilma's visit last October.

Most of we Floridians realize we are going to get hammered by hurricanes nearly every season.
Wwe hunker down...we endure...and we recover.
We do not dwell on the inevitable.

Doesn't really matter anyways as my state of Florida has so much more to offer other than brief visits from Mother Nature.


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HanKFranK
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Re: no change [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #64850 - Thu Apr 06 2006 01:34 AM

i doubt those analogs they have are very strong. 1996 may be the best, because it followed a hyper-active year, 1995. ed already pointed this out, but i dunno. 1995 had most of its activity in the open atlantic and a freakish lack of activity out in the eastern atlantic in 2005 made it completely different. the set of analogs this year's graycast gives includes more north carolina hits than anything else. usually some out to sea recurvatures and usually a late season caribbean/gulf storm or two also. but that could be any year.
one thing i'd be wary of is a continued lack of activity in the pacific. the eastpac has been consistently slow for most of the last decade, but the westpac was significantly slower than normal last year. the northern hemisphere was doing most of its tropical-mid latitude energy exchange in the atlantic last year, and that was a huge problem for us. having a ridge weakness persistently inland over the eastern u.s. in 2004 and the central u.s. in 2005 during the heart of the season also contributed. forecasting these things isn't something that can be done with any confidence, as far as i know... definitely from this far out. probably won't have a good idea of how things will play out until summer.
HF 0534z06april


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Margie
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2005 Names to be retired [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64851 - Thu Apr 06 2006 10:24 AM

From this article on March 30th:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N30175861.htm

" The WMO is looking at retiring the names of Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma because of the damage and deaths associated with those storms in 2005. More than 60 hurricane names have been retired to date.

"I suspect that at least four or five will be retired, maybe more," Mayfield said. "We will vote on it some time this week."

A supplemental list of names for Atlantic storms is also being discussed to replace the Greek alphabet. Forecasters ran out of names last year and had to resort to a backup list of Greek letters to name the final six storms.
"

I guess they never thought they'd have to use those Greek names...and when they did, they were just as unappealing to them, as they were to us!


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Clark
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Re: 2005 Names to be retired [Re: Margie]
      #64852 - Thu Apr 06 2006 01:02 PM

They went ahead and retired the 5 storms Margie listed from that news article. Surprising for its omission is Emily.

The replacement names are Don, Katia (that's not close), Rina (still sounds awfully like Rita), Sean, and Whitney. Let's just hope we don't see a Whitney in 2011; even then, I'm sure the Whitney Houston jokes would be flying just like they did with Wilma & the Flintstones this year.

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saluki
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Re: Hurricane Fatigue..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64853 - Thu Apr 06 2006 01:27 PM

Still many reminders of Wilma in our Fort Lauderdale neighborhood. Many of the trees that managed to survive are just starting to recover. Downed fences and damaged roofs remain. And not a day goes by without the local papers reporting on insurers either canceling coverage or raising rates dramatically in South Florida (our windstorm insurance premium is almost doubling to more than $3,000 this year, even with discounts for shutters, reinforced garage door, etc.). Not sure I'd call it hurricane fatigue ... more like a hangover!

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Margie
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In 2006, let's not all boldly go there [Re: saluki]
      #64854 - Thu Apr 06 2006 01:31 PM

My mother said that some of the trees damaged by Katrina in MS are starting to get some leaves returning, finally -- and this week the birds started coming back. Everyone is so glad to hear birds singing again.

As far as TC names...I can't wait for "Captain" Kirk, and all the inevitable references. Already anticipating ad nauseum "boldly going where no tropical cyclone has gone before"...bring out the barf bags! Should I send Beven a warning not to even consider it, LOL (probably wouldn't do any good).

--------------------
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HanKFranK
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name change [Re: Margie]
      #64855 - Thu Apr 06 2006 02:32 PM

No really, they could have done better replacing Rita. Just watch--Rina will get retired and be replaced by Rida, and nobody will know which one anyone is talking about. Rita Rina Rida. As for Emily hanging on... geez, what is it now, three times affecting land as a major hurricane and still on the list? It got the Dominican Republic at cat 3 in 1987, the Hatteras area at cat 3 in 1993, and then a cat 4 and 3 hit on Mexico in 2005. I'm seeing a pattern here that I don't like...
HF 1931z06april


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LONNY307
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Re: SO WHAT'S IT GOING TO BE? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64856 - Thu Apr 06 2006 04:16 PM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html
Seems there up in the air to what phase will be during the season. I say a weak La Nina maybe neutral. But what do I know.


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Deep Surge
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Re: name change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #64857 - Thu Apr 06 2006 06:32 PM

I can't believe they didn't retire hurricane Emily! I was wondering if they would finally retire a name that needs to rest in peace. Wow, why did they do that? There are 3 or 4 Hurricanes with the name Emily that has done something worth noting. Oh well. The other names that got the boot isn't surprising and Hurricane stan killed many people so it's right. Those new names sound a lot like the ones in 2005.

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ltpat228
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Re: Hurricane Fatigue..? [Re: saluki]
      #64860 - Thu Apr 06 2006 10:51 PM

Quote:

Still many reminders of Wilma in our Fort Lauderdale neighborhood.




Yeh, I was advised Wilton Manors got slammed pretty good! You poor people.
I'm born and raised in 'Lauderdale for 31 years and been up here the last 21.
I returned for a year to work for Nick Navarro and didn't wish to deal with all that city life...ha ha.

I wish you the VERY best, Fort Lauderdale and ALL of Broward County!!!!!!!!!!!


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Hurricane Fatigue..? [Re: ltpat228]
      #64861 - Fri Apr 07 2006 10:58 AM

If you fly into or out of Ft Lauderdale you will be amazed at how many "blue roofs" there still are.Many business signs still not fixed,also many street lights are still not working.And to think Wilma was a cat 2 coming from the west,That to me is the scarest part.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ltpat228
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Re: Hurricane Fatigue..? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #64870 - Fri Apr 07 2006 09:18 PM

Knowing that my home town got hammered truly saddens me, Robert.
Even though I am only 2 hours north of you now, obviously Fort Laudredale will always be centered in my heart.
How did A1A make out, especially near Bahia Mar?
I looked in the Sentinel as soon as photos were posted and couldn't believe what I saw.
I am grateful you are okay.


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Psyber
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Re: name change [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65070 - Tue May 02 2006 09:43 AM

Quote:

No really, they could have done better replacing Rita. Just watch--Rina will get retired and be replaced by Rida, and nobody will know which one anyone is talking about. Rita Rina Rida. As for Emily hanging on... geez, what is it now, three times affecting land as a major hurricane and still on the list? It got the Dominican Republic at cat 3 in 1987, the Hatteras area at cat 3 in 1993, and then a cat 4 and 3 hit on Mexico in 2005. I'm seeing a pattern here that I don't like...
HF 1931z06april




A pattern sayyyy...that borders on not retiring hurricanes that don't do a load of continental USA damage?

For some of you that remember late last year, I alluded to some different sets of standards that get applied when hurricanes hit places other than the united states. I guess storms that flatten and kill outside the USA, just aren't big enough news to get them retired.


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poolwatcher
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Re: Gulf Trees [Re: Randrew]
      #65397 - Sat May 27 2006 09:25 PM

Quote:

Thanks for the shots of the trees Margie.
The oaks will mostly survive. Just lots of rain to leach out the salt will speed that up.
Sorry about the Pecans. They might not like all the salts in the SOIl.
I am happy that you were able to see what hurricanes can do to those that have to live through them.
Please remember this....everyone must remember this. It is no joke ....nor is it fun in any way.
People lose their homes and their lives and everything is forever changed by these storms.
If those that read this happen to live in non-hurricane prone areas.....you have no idea until you live through this. If you live through it!




That is correct. We lost our house in Jeanne as did our neighbors who also lost their business buildings. Folks just wandering around stunned for weeks, hunting for ice, gas, water and food all day everyday for about a week. It's hard to describe it if you have not actually seen it. My guess is the Gulf coast was ten times what Jeanne was, and Jeanne was something to behold.

And to add insult to injury, watching folks argue with insurance adjustors, especially Citizens Insurance. I do not know why the government does not simply say to the Insurance Companies, "If you want to write auto policies, or any policies at all in Florida, you also have to write hurricane insurance policies". And I dont know why the liability is not spread out across America, rather than just across Florida. (Same for earthquake insurance in Calif., tornado insurance in midwest). Insurance is going up so high, some folks are talking about going "bare".


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