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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
All Quiet on the Western Front
      #65079 - Wed May 03 2006 06:06 PM

If anyone cares to take a break (from watching anything likely of any concern to landlubbers like me) there seems to be a cluster of thunderstorms in the East Pacific with a center of sorts near 8N 107W. And it's only three days into the East Pacific hurricane season no less. Granted it's hardly the area's most impressive looking convection for the week. But it does appear to be getting a little more organized, with a sort of 'war bonnet' or plumed hat shape in the later satellite images.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: Spoken]
      #65080 - Wed May 03 2006 08:26 PM Attachment (258 downloads)

Quote:

a cluster of thunderstorms in the East Pacific with a center of sorts near 8N 107W.



From the eastpac 5pm TWD:

"AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N103W SW TO 5N115W WITH DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING E TO ABOUT 95W. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ BENEATH THIS DIFFLUENCE ZONE...BUT THE BULK OF THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AXES. INCIDENTALLY...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FROM THIS CONVECTIVE MASS WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HRS...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE ONLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH FOR NOW. "

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: Spoken]
      #65081 - Wed May 03 2006 11:48 PM

no, they're still preseason over there. eastpac kicks off on may 15. the earliest storm in the hurdat records for the eastpac is alma from 1990, which spun up on may 12 of that year.
HF 0348z04may


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65086 - Thu May 04 2006 04:22 PM

Saw this in the news today:

"Cuba's National Weather Institute predicted on Tuesday that there will be an above-average 15 tropical storms this year, and at least nine are expected to become hurricanes.

That's because water temperatures in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin remain warm and there is no sign of a counteracting El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, said Cuban forecaster Maritza Ballester. The first storm will form in late June or early July, she predicted, with three arising in the Gulf of Mexico.

"Everything points to an active season," said Ballester, developer of a mathematical model for predicting hurricanes."

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: Margie]
      #65087 - Thu May 04 2006 05:11 PM

Deleted by Moderator

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu May 04 2006 09:33 PM)


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65143 - Fri May 12 2006 05:19 PM

Quote:

no, they're still preseason over there. eastpac kicks off on may 15. the earliest storm in the hurdat records for the eastpac is alma from 1990, which spun up on may 12 of that year.
HF 0348z04may


Thanks for the correction!

Speaking of may 12 and alma, if you've got sufficient bandwidth for the SSD's apparently new 15 frame loops, take a look at what's currently showing on IR Channel 4.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Ay Carumba!


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: All Quiet on the Western Front [Re: Spoken]
      #65146 - Fri May 12 2006 05:32 PM Attachment (239 downloads)

I was checking out the new sat loops just yesterday evening - nice huh. I hadn't seen the "Rainbow" colorway before and maybe it's from coming of age in the late 60s / early 70s but I have to admit to being a little partial to it (attached an image of the impressive closed low that is currently parked over Lake Michigan and the assoc trough, bringing 40-degree rainy weather all day to MSP, but I didn't mind it as much after seeing it on the Rainbow IR).

But I couldn't get the eastpac tropical ones to work yesterday ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html ). They are working now, but too far west for that convection around 95-100W.

That convection moved north since yesterday evening when it was, I think, south of 5N, and just part of the ITCZ. It is mentioned in the aft eastpac TWD:

"A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR 8N97W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW IS NOTED FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 97W-100W. "

* * * * * * *

Also -- in a news article from the Daytona Beach News Journal on the Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference which occured this week:

The one lesson learned after every land-falling hurricane, National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield said, is that people who have disaster plans and execute them fare much better.

Mayfield said he could think of "no greater tribute" to Katrina victims than having people prepared this year.

That includes making sure officials don't hesitate to call evacuations if necessary, he said.

"Some people in Louisiana played Russian roulette," he said. "The stakes are too high to not do the right thing and call for evacuations in the hurricane area."


I wondered if that was regarding Nagin's failure to issue the mandatory evac until only hours before winds picked up in NOLA on Sunday.

And this was nice to read (it was true about FL helping out -- FEMA didn't show up in Jackson County for 10 days, and FL teams were there to help with S&R as soon as the roads could be cleared to get in).

Bush choked up for several seconds while talking about the gratitude of Mississippi officials for all the assistance received from Florida counties and cities last year.

"It was an unusual and incredible response," Bush said. "They said: 'It was like the cavalry coming in. They actually saved our lives.' "



Edited by Margie (Fri May 12 2006 09:12 PM)


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