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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
may updates
      #65082 - Thu May 04 2006 12:21 AM

hey all you folks who posted pre-season forecasts back in the winter: time to make our may updates. what with the developments in el nino and atlantic SSTs some of you might want to adjust your season forecasts. or knock those crazy numbers exceeding 2005 down into reality, maybe?
post your updated numbers in this thread and i'll chunk them all together with the adjustments from earlier. if you didn't post in december, just tack your numbers on anyway. if you don't update or don't want to update that's fine, too.. i'll just keep your december numbers.
as an extra feel free to toss in your guess at the date the first named storm forms. we'll go with the date it gets named doesn't go to storm strength the day the depression forms. subtropical storms count.
forecast deadline is tuesday, may 30th, right ahead of the klotzbach/gray season kickoff issue.

i'll start it off: 18/12/6, a shift up to the crowd from nov/dec. call me bandwagon. i'll feel dumb if 14/9/4 verifies.
first storm, may 23. that'll be the day.
HF 0420z04may


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Evil Jeremy
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65083 - Thu May 04 2006 10:43 AM

19 Tropical Storms} 1 subtropical
10 Hurricanes
6 Major
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

First Storm: Anywhere withen 2 weeks. GFS is showing a system in the GOM in a week.

Landfall Forecast:
June-July: A weak hurricane will probaly hit Mexico, while a TS will it somewhere in the Guld of Mexico.

August: A Cat1-2 hurricane will strike the centreal East coast, while the FL Keys are threatened by a small hurricane or TS.

September: S. Florida is threatned once, and so is the panhandle of FL.

October: S. Texas gets their Due, and so does the Tampa area with a TS. Florida will get another suprise hit from the south.

November: all gets quiet with a Tropical Storm coming up from nowhere and hiting the Carribean.


About 5 of these storms will affect the Carribean, and 2 of them will affect the Bahamas. 75% chance that the FL. East Coast will get hit. 55% Chance that the Carolinas will get hit.


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65084 - Thu May 04 2006 10:46 AM

My original numbers were: 20/8/3 on dec 1. And I will go ahead and adjust these numbers to 18/10/5. As for the first named storm, I will go with May 16.

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: may updates [Re: firestar_1]
      #65085 - Thu May 04 2006 11:13 AM

I posted mine late in another forum because honestly, I was so sick and tired of seeing hurricanes last december, I just put everything down and walked away for a bit.

Anyways, i'm sticking with my april forcast:

21/11/5...i'm an odd fellow so my numbers are all going to be odd.
First Named Storm: July 6


Personal note: what are the chances of them they retiring PATTY just because it's an icky name and putting 'Psyber' in it's place?

they'll make that replacement right after replacing michael with meatwad. besides, isn't psyber a 'male' name? wrong gender for that slot. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu May 04 2006 08:14 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65088 - Thu May 04 2006 11:03 PM

Back in Nov/Dec/whenever, I went with 15/9/4. Now I'm going to go with 15/9/5.

Date of first storm: oh, give me June 27th

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Sun May 28 2006 11:46 PM)


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: may updates [Re: Clark]
      #65089 - Fri May 05 2006 04:21 PM

Hello everyone my name is Nate and hurricane's are a major hobby of mine. I hope to learn a lot from this forum and from all of you. I joined the forum last year but didnt chat much but this year I'm looking forward to learning more and more about hurricanes and forcasting. As far as this year Im guessing 21/12/7 with the first storm coming May 29th.

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: may updates [Re: Nateball]
      #65090 - Fri May 05 2006 07:46 PM

My Dec forecast was 23/10/7. I will revise my May forecast to 20/14/5.

I am still looking for a landfall from Gavelston, Tx to Tallahassie, Fl. This is based on a possible nutural La Nina warmer that normal SST's. IMO


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Enrique
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Upstate New York
Re: may updates [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #65094 - Fri May 05 2006 10:33 PM

My original numbers were: 22/12/6; I'll modify to 19/9/4.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: may updates [Re: Enrique]
      #65104 - Mon May 08 2006 05:18 PM

I'll move my numbers up to 16/8/5


I want to say the first storm of the season will come around June 22nd and then it is quiet until mid July.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #65105 - Mon May 08 2006 06:25 PM

Last year I did not think a serious hurricane would bother Florida overly much and unless one considered Wilma to be a real nusance we did not have a serious hurricane. The news media was less than reliable here in Central Florida as to what was happening with Wilma to our south.
This year I am feeling a dread of at least one of our Gulf of Mexico storms putting a world of hurt on the Florida Peninsula this year. The reasons are not noticeably different from 2004. Fireweather and drying winds have placed us very vulnerable to sudden flooding with trees and sinksholes etc. I have also noticed an unusual critter activity this spring. We have some kind of flies that are really a nusance and the store repellents are not even making them wet, much less killing them. My birds are laying eggs about once every two weeks or more often. Its like they are stocking up on family members. I don't care how many numbers of hurricanes form, it only takes the one to finish off the job that was started by the 3 muskateers in 2004. I keep saying to any one who comments about the Northeast being in the line of hurricane landfall this year, most cold fronts dip down from the west, into the Gulf and then ride back up to the Northeast. There is nothing to prevent a hurricane from doing that either. Florida is not wide enough to slow a Katrina size storm down at all. Especially if the storm takes on subtropical characteristics and does not respond to cooler water temperatures or the position of the Gulf stream. Numbers of storms? 19/5major one or two Cat 5 where and when I don't know. All I know for sure is that Texas and Lousianna started off pretty dry last year. Florida is pretty dry this year and very much more windy than I seem to remember.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: may updates [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65108 - Wed May 10 2006 07:36 AM

Going with the Fibonacci Series. 21-13-(8-2} except for a reduction in majors. Hopefully the 2 less will be those slated for the Gold Coast.


(Use the PM capability for personal messages)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:43 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65113 - Wed May 10 2006 03:53 PM

Oh duh...

My guess 19/9/5

May 29th.



Lesli.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 10 2006 01:45 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 145
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65121 - Thu May 11 2006 12:26 AM

I'll play....

16/9/5 (with 2 major US landfalls)

"A" storm July 17th


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: may updates [Re: Doombot!]
      #65138 - Thu May 11 2006 10:59 PM

*dusts off login*

I got sucked into soccer full time not too long after Wilma and threw my hands in the air around Gamma.

Accordingly I never posted my feelings on this season.

20/11/5

I'm not even going to touch landfalls

*waves hello to everyone*

First storm will be June 17th.


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: may updates [Re: tpratch]
      #65141 - Fri May 12 2006 01:58 PM

22/14/6

First storm will be July 16th.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: may updates [Re: tpratch]
      #65142 - Fri May 12 2006 02:21 PM

I said I wouldn't change my numbers after Dec unless we had some subtropical storms, and I'll stick to that.

First named storm? Ummm...not 'til July 1st. I picked the beginning of a holiday weekend, so if Mother Nature will oblige, I'll have time to watch it inbetween the picnic at the lake. :-) Let's just say it's my way of being patriotic. Probably not the first pick of anyone who happens to be a professional met specializing in tropical weather! Who would want to work on a big holiday weekend.

Of course that's probably the worst date to pick. If we have an early start to the season, that would mean a June date (HF what were you thinkin' there with the end of May), but if we have a normal start to the season, it'll be further out in July.

Do I have a reason for picking July? Not really -- no expertise to do so. But look at the jet stream position over the ATL and all the shear. And even if the ITCZ has kicked off, it's still below 5N. And SSTs not anywhere near last year. And the mother lode of warm water in the NW Carib is cooling down lately (what's that all about). And it's 40 degrees and raining here in MSP today. Summer's going to take her time showing up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65144 - Fri May 12 2006 05:20 PM

Never made a prediction in December so, here goes.

I don't believe all the doom-sayers that this year is going to be very bad. So, I'll go with 12/8/2.

Earliest Storm:

I'll be in Florida all June and July, so I'll say August 1st at the earliest

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: may updates [Re: HanKFranK]
      #65152 - Sat May 13 2006 07:08 AM

Sticking with 18 / 13 / 6 and hope I am wrong. First NS 7/16

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: may updates *DELETED* [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #65154 - Sat May 13 2006 08:31 AM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: may updates [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #65155 - Sat May 13 2006 09:59 AM

My final numbers are 15/9/4.First storm on June 18.

Edited by Cycloneye11 (Mon May 15 2006 09:22 AM)


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