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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
some general questions
      #65106 - Mon May 08 2006 08:27 PM

Okay, I have a few questions for you all????

1. La Nina~ Is it a good thing or a bad thing. I read the headlines online every day and I read one where they said "good news" "Weak La Nina"??
I thought La nina was a bad thing for hurricane season.

2. When will the next forecast come out from Dr. Gray? June 1st?

3. This question may be too broad for the board, but, do you think that we will have another 2004/2005 season this year? I know that some of you study the patterns, steering currents, SST's, etc..Just opinions from you weather watchers.

Thanks everyone for always helping:)
Christine, St. Pete, FL


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lurker
Unregistered




Re: some general questions [Re: sara33]
      #65110 - Wed May 10 2006 11:21 AM

Another question....Among the mets out there, is there anyone who has consistently predicted storm paths, intensity, etc. more accurately than even the NHC over the chaotic 04,05 seasons? I realize the NHC is THE source for official forecasts, evac info and such. I was just wondering how all of the predictions on this board stack up to the NHC.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 308
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: some general questions [Re: sara33]
      #65111 - Wed May 10 2006 02:08 PM

Regarding your questions Christine, I wouldn't categorize a "weak La Nina" as good news, although there are other conditions that would have to be in place to make it a dangerous hurricane season. Any season that is La Nina or ENSO neutral could mean an active Atlantic season. I've heard this term misused recently, particularly by Glenn Richards in Orlando where he stated that the "current La Nina pattern is responsible for our westerly flow and contributing to our wildfires across central Florida." While a weak La Nina may have existed 6 - 8 weeks ago, it is long gone now and we're in a neutral pattern currently. Again, La Nina or neutral patterns generally mean more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, but other factors affect the outcome as well. Dr. Gray will have his update out June 1st or thereabouts. I believe this season will be another nail-biter, but with numbers closer to 2004. Where these storms go will depend on the axis of the east coast ridge (Bermuda high), which I believe will strengthen during August, and present a dangerous set up for the SE US and Gulf coastal areas as well..........western GOM quite possibly is ridging becomes dominant. Cheers!!

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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: some general questions [Re: Steve H1]
      #65115 - Wed May 10 2006 04:55 PM

The effects of La Nina are still prevalent in parts of the U.S.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: some general questions [Re: Steve H1]
      #65116 - Wed May 10 2006 08:22 PM

Thanks Steve!! Great explaination:)

If I am correct, the Bermuda High was a pretty big factor in '04 in where the hurricanes were directed right??

I guess it was a combo of the BH and the fronts coming in from the North?? For 4(? I think 4) hurricanes to cross over the same point..that was ..well..pretty bad.

Was the Bermuda High as strong in '05 as it was in '04?

Always learning..Thanks for all of the answers guys!!

Christine,
St. Petersburg, FL


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: some general questions [Re: sara33]
      #65118 - Wed May 10 2006 09:47 PM

The high pressure was strong in 2004. Last year it was strong again. I do not know for a fact whether it could be considered stronger, though.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: some general questions [Re: sara33]
      #65119 - Wed May 10 2006 09:51 PM

It wasn't particularly stronger in 2005, just shifted further to the west of where it was in 2004. Thus, we saw about two primary paths for storms this year, of course with some deviation here and there -- out to sea out by the Bahamas, or through the Gulf/Caribbean to the north-central or northwest Gulf coast.

As for the other question about how we fare vs. the NHC -- well, we don't really try to compete with them, so we don't put out forecast points or anything. We just try to stress the importance of preparation, discuss the storms, point out ideas that the NHC specialists don't always have the chance to do so themselves, and highlight areas where uncertainty exists in the forecasts. I've thought about trying to put out specific points, but it doesn't really accomplish anything other than foster confusion. You will see us mention our ideas on tracks and everything, with some success, but it's not really possible to compare how we do vs. the NHC (and vice versa).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: some general questions [Re: Steve H1]
      #65256 - Wed May 17 2006 04:05 PM

Dr. Gray's Tropical Storm Forecasts:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: some general questions [Re: Spoken]
      #65272 - Sun May 21 2006 10:40 PM

first off great question's sara33

I have a quick question, are the current SST's in the Gulf of Mexico and in the caribbean normal for this time of year or are they a little cool right now? And with the temps getting higher these next few weeks will they warm up quickly? Thanks


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: some general questions [Re: Nateball]
      #65286 - Mon May 22 2006 07:15 PM

To answer your questions...

1) A tad cooler than normal in the Gulf, above normal in the Caribbean -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

2) Yeah, if these current conditions hold, the waters in the Gulf should warm up pretty quickly. The waters of the northern Gulf are pretty shallow and tend to warm up (and cool down) pretty fast. I'm getting a tad concerned with the warm waters in the Caribbean; we'll have to see what happens.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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