MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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It is unfortunately the start of yet another Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Today is the first day of the 2006 Hurricane Season, and after the intense record breaking last season I almost hoped to never write one of these again.
NOAA and the meteorologists at Colorado State University say it'll be an above average year again, but not like last year. Last year I suggested that it would be closer to an average number of storms, and boy was I wrong.
Still I tend to be optimistic about the season in general, and expect it to not be as crazy. It only takes one, however. This is year eleven for flhurricane, and it just keeps going. Thanks to everyone who has helped out, last year bandwidth used was at record highs (>1TB a month during August and September) for the site during the storms.
Here's a plot of all storms from 1851-2004, see if your area is in it:
As we start off the year, there is nothing worthy of note in the tropics yet, but we'll keep an eye out. There has been some interest in a low area in the western Gulf, but it's not sunk low enough and is too close to land to be considered. Persistence is always the key for development, and June seems to be shaping up to be a very slow month.
There are plenty of hurricane specials on local media, and events going on at local malls this week. Feel free to reply and state them if you know of them. Preparation is key as usual, and discussing preperation at the start of the season is a good thing.
Thanks for visiting the site. I hope to improve it even more this year.
We are still looking for reasonable server collocation facilities for our servers. Our bandwidth has very unusual requirements in that only one or two months a year we tend to spike, and spike very very hard when hurricane events happen, while the rest is comparatively slow, if you have a recommendation or offer please send it to cfhc@flhurricane.com
The names for this year are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, , Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William.
Be hurricane prepared! And always, always, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the Internet, here or otherwise.
Our friend Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.
See Clark's blog below for even more commentary about the start of the season.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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I am in for the long haul...
Hopefully, this will be a fish spinner year. *Knock on wood*
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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orangejack
Unregistered
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Boo for a new season! But thanks for your site. It's my favorite for keeping up here in Orlando.
Rob
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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
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well guy here it comes hope its a slow season and every one has a good one
*knocks on wood*
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Morning, all.
Today's ATL s have some good general information explaining the various advisory products issued by :
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME. IT BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT ...MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND THE STRIKE PROBABILITIES ...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION... A SPECIAL\ ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE . THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
* * * * * *
fixed the error in the cut and paste. --margie
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Jun 01 2006 11:02 AM)
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lost
Unregistered
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AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND THE STRIKE PROBABILITIES . THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
This is not actually correct, the correct verbage in the here is:
AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF
STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO
PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Hope everyone is prepared, and stays safe. I can't believe it's only been five months since Zeta.
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Check the Surf
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Appropriately, the final IPET was released today ( IPET Final Report ). For those of you who, like myself, waded through the endless minutiae of earlier versions, you'll be happy to know that the final report is even larger: this one has been broken down into nine separate too-heavy-to-lift volumes, including one that previously almost did me in (more of a mental challenge than a weight issue), Geodetic Vertical and Water Level Datum. I've just had the briefest opportunity to glance through it, but it appears, as I was a little afraid would happen, that they ran out of steam, and the detail lavished on the easier targets like the 17th Street Canal (lots and lots of available paperwork from the Paleozoic Age to stuff into the report, in hopes of wearing out the reader) is missing from some of the more critical failures.
USA Today notes: "The system did not perform as a system," according to the report, released on the first day of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. "The hurricane protection in New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana was a system in name only."
I heard that there have been a lot repairs in the past nine months. That should bring the "system in name only" up to the level of virtually-no-protection that it had prior to . :-) Good thing for NOLA residents that newly-reelected mayor Nagin, just like last year, has a hurricane plan.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Major7
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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Only 5 months, 4 weeks and 1 day until hurricane season officially ends.
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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If this is too far off-topic just kill it.... 
With regards to NO, there is new data now available relating to the flood damage - and it is eye-opening.
It has been assumed that the rate of subsidence (sinking) in that area is on the order of 1/10th of an inch a year. What has been found with high-resolution radar scan data (which has now been gone back and re-interpreted post-Katrina) is that the actual sink rate at or near where the breaches occurred is more on the order of ONE INCH PER YEAR, or TEN TIMES the previously believed rate.
In other words, over 30 years, the level of the ground has sunk some THREE FEET.
This is why the levees failed guys. Its not because they were inadequately built, but because the design build height from 30 years ago wasn't maintained. The levees were some three feet BELOW their supposed build height at the time of the storm in many cases, and once you overtop one then the undermining process starts and soon it breaches entirely.
There is no fix for this other than to NOT rebuild in the areas where this sort of subsidence is occurring. NO WILL get hit again - it is just a question of when. Building "flood protection" in an area where the ground is literally sinking out from under you is not possible in a cost-effective manner when it comes to actually providing the protection sought. Concrete and other "long haul" materials are very difficult to add on to, and yet as they sink levees built from them become ineffective.
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Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yes, yesterday I read a review , and another, of the article (in Nature ), and the statement of "three feet" was certainly eye-popping.
I also read another "eye popping" article on Sunday about Bill Gray.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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What's is that turning off WPB?http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Hey guys,
just wanted to wish all of you over the other side of the pond all the best for this season! Lets hope its not a repeat of last year!
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Interesting bits from the latest TWD:
...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW
COULD BE SPAWNED BY THIS WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SATELLITE
IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A STRONG ROTATION OFFSHORE OF NW COLOMBIA...
...THE SYSTEM NOW INLAND OVER TEXAS DID HAVE A FEW HINTS OF TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT HAS BECOME A SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT INSTEAD...
Any thoughts on either of these?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Hey everyone. I'll be skimming and scanning through the threads for about the 9th or 10th year this season whenever there is anything worth talking about. Hopefully SE LA and So. MS/AL will be spared the brunt of landfalls this season. That's not to wish them on anyone else, but you know it's coming at some point if you live anywhere on the East or Gulf Coast. Be ready because it's only a matter of time before your area sees its next IH! Me? I don't have much to worry about since I lost everything last year. I have a truck and some clothes, but that's all, and it can all be replaced.
Steve 
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
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Something to watch. I think that would be a climatologically favored area for this time of year, wouldn't it?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 31
Loc: Satellite Beach FL 28.18N 80.59W
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Before things get too crazy around here, I just wanted to thank the folks who maintain this site and those who share their expertise with us. This is my third season, and I have found this site to be fascinating and indispensible when I need information.
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Scrappy
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Although I don't like the landfalling storms, I must admit I love the science behind the behemoth storm we witnessed last year. I wouldnt wish a CAT5 on anyone but it is sure awesome to look at and study.
Kudos to flhurricane.com - you guys were always a couple days ahead of the or the local weather "guru's". Looking forward to another year of wind and rain :/
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Tom "Scrappy"
Tampabay - 82 years and counting without a direct hit.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 724
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Welcome back everyone.Well our "vacation" is over.Got hit twice last year,hopfully mother nature will give us break this year.Fasten your seatbelts!
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas 27.62N 99.55W
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Ditto the thoughts of Gailwarning, Scrappy, and others...
Thank you! Thank you! to for continuing to provide one of the best tropical weather resources on the internet...
and here's to a boring year ahead! ;-)
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Allison
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