rrickynsc
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Loc: Bluffton, SC
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Ok, I know that David hit the Georgia coast in 1979.. But in the 1900s there really has not been many direct impacts to the Georgia coast ( Brunswick ) nor on the northeastern coast of Florida or the extreme southern coast of South Carolina ( Beaufort, Hilton Head Island ). I live near the Hilton Head Island area and we have had some close calls but nothing major. Hugo, passed about 80 miles to my north in 1989 it did not even bring a branch down in my yard. Every year it seems I watch as a frontal system dips south and sweeps them north and east just before they make it to our coast. The very few that have actually made impact have been pretty weak systems. ( Not counting backdoor systems )
So what is at play here? Why does it seem that this area is not as hurricane prone as other areas of the Gulf and Atlantic coast line? Is the area from Jacksonville, Fl - Beaufort, SC in a hurricane free zone? Also if anyone can find any information on the history of hurricanes hitting the Brunswick, Ga area please let me know.
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latemodel52
Unregistered
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Does anyone know if manatee county fl.is in a dead zone also?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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The Georgia coastline is in a unique position for tropical cyclone impacts. It is between two of the most climatologically favored locations for impacts, those being Florida and the Outer Banks, yet sees very few direct impacts itself. This is largely because of the steering patterns associated with mid-latitude troughs of low pressure and the semi-permanent subtropical ridge as well as the shape of the coastline. Generally speaking, a mid-latitude trough will capture a storm and recurve it sharply enough to miss Georgia -- and sometimes even the rest of the coastline -- or no such feature will capture the storm and it will continue across Florida. As storms recurve, they generally move parallel to the Georgia coastline, providing natural protection for those along the coast. However, it's not impossible to get a hit there; if the mid-latitude trough is in just the right place and of the right orientation (tilted from northwest to southeast) and there is a tropical feature there, you can see an impact. Something like David in 1979 is possible as well, just not quite as likely. Dora of 1964 is another such outlier; it took a track similar to Andrew in 1992, just about 5 degrees further north.
Simply put, it's possible -- but not likely -- to see a storm hit that region, mostly due to the coastline and natural trough/ridge patterns.
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rrickynsc
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Bluffton, SC
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Thanks for the reply to my post.. Just one other question about Hurricanes not hitting the Gerogia coast line. I have heard that Georgia is seeing a quiet period due to some kind of cycle that we are in. Once the cycle changes we could get hit more often. Is there any validity to this? You gave the best most logical answer I have ever heard on the reason for storms not hitting our area.. Thanks again
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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As for Manatee Co., certainly not. The further you go up the west coast of Florida toward the Big Bend, the less likely you have been over the past 100 years to see a tropical storm impact, yes, but that's not always been the case. Anywhere along the Florida coastline is at high risk in any given year for an impact from at least one tropical system; perhaps relative to other parts of the state Manatee Co. is relatively sheltered, but it's by no means a dead zone.
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AgnesOfHell
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I've wondered the same thing about SE Virginia. It's about 100 mi north of OBX, a well-known storm brewpot, yet direct hits on VaB are rare. We had the west side of Gloria in 1985 and it wasn't much worse than a fierce t-storm. There have been a few others, nothing too severe.
Is it the geography that keeps direct hits away? Does a trough steer cyclones back out to sea?
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Standing on the shoulders of giants
Edited by AgnesOfHell (Thu Jun 01 2006 11:36 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Generally, yes; troughs of low pressure will help steer the storm, gradually recurving it out to sea. The Virginia coastline is also spared to some degree by the Outer Banks & eastern North Carolina as well as the Gulf stream starting to curve out to sea around that latitude. Impacts can and do happen, they are just usually somewhat diluted by land beforehand, making rain a much greater threat than anything else -- especially as you head westward toward the mountains, coincidentally enough.
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Brunswick
Unregistered
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In the early 1800's a hurricane came through what is now McIntosh County. There are historical ruins near the town of Ridgeway which is just northeast of Darien. I think because this area is actualy set westward from the rest of the southern coast is why Brunswick and the surrounding areas do not get direct hits from the Atlantic hurricanes. But we here at the GA coast firmly believe when one comes in, it will be from the back door. (Gulf storms).
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Had not come in as soon as it did, Manatee county would have received a lot more weather. would have funneled right up Tampa Bay.
TS Gabrielle, in Sept. of 2001, came ashore right around Venice. Just a sneeze from Manatee county. And she packed a wallop.
I would say Manatee county is as at-risk as any county on the west coast.
The Big Bend area took a huge hit in flooding from the March 13 1993 "No Name" storm that hit. I think it was Horseshoe Beach, around a dozen people were killed there, if I remember correctly. I know 26 people died total. (I lived in Aripeka in Pasco County and we had about 12 feet of storm surge right on the coast.) Crystal River got whomped as well. (Which always leaves me to wonder what if a "Katrina" hit the Crystal River Nuclear Power Plant? Could it withstand it?) But that storm pushed a lot of water up. The geography of the area can create a devastating storm surge even if a storm doesn't directly come on shore in that area because the water has no place to go but inland if it's pushed that way.
Hurricane Elena (1985) nearly hit that area before doing a "u-turn" and skirting the Panhandle, Alabama, and Mississippi.
The bottom line is, it doesn't matter what the odds are of a storm hitting, you have to be prepared for any/all of them. Because people used to swear that our area (Charlotte County, FL) would NEVER get hit with a hurricane. (I wasn't one of those morons) Then hit in 2004 and we're STILL cleaning up from that.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Perry
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Loc: Douglasville, Georgia
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During the later portions of the 19th century, the Georgia coast was ravaged by several major hurricanes; including a cat-3 in late August 1893 which drowned 1500-2000 and produced the 2nd highest storm surge of record in Charleston. Many of those who perished died on Georgia's Tybee Island which reportedly went underwater from a 17' foot storm surge. Only five years later, an even more powerful hurricane struck the Georgia coast near Brunswick. A recent re-evaluation by the NWS office in Jacksonville estimated the intensity as category 4 (938 mb/ 115 kts), and produced a storm surge of 19' feet in the Darien, Georgia area (the HRD "HURDAT" re-evaluation project also list this as a category 4 landfalling hurricane.
The Georgia coast is certainly not immune from a powerful hurricane, even though it hasn't happened in more than 105 years. Just as major hurricanes have returned to the Florida peninsula  the past two seasons, sooner or later a powerful hurricane will strike the Georgia coast. If folks living there are complacent and don't believe history can repeat itself, the next time could be catastrophic, because storm surge heights along the Georgia coast are historically large, due to the shallow slope offshore and the concave shape of the coast for any west or WNW moving hurricane.
PW
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rrickynsc
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Bluffton, SC
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I feel like we are well overdue for a major hit here in the Savannah area. This area has sure lucked out in the past. I like the excitement of chasing storms and watching their fury, but not sure if I want one here in my own backyard.. 
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pastord
Unregistered
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does any hurricanes ever come as far inland to georgia during the hurricane ?
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Coast Watcher
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Posts: 2
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
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Good question and a great discussion from Clark.
I'm in Richmond Hill Georgia -- actually out on the Ogeechee River near Ossabaw Sound. We were Ground Zero for Hurricane David but it was just bearly a hurricane.
Here is some data gleaned from the WTOC TV website -- I think the original source was from the Hurricane Center.
Below are the probabilities of the number of hurricanes passing within 75 miles of the given location over a period of 100 years.
Location Any Hurricane Major Hurricane
Charleston 10.0 2.2
Savannah 7.1 1.3
Jacksonville 9.1 1.9
Highest probabilities locations along SE coast
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 27.0 10.0
Miami, FL 26.3 11.1
Cape Hatteras, NC 21.3 5.3
(My Tab alignment doesn't seem to be working)
So this data seems to suggest Savannah/Hilton Head and the Georgia coast is somewhat safer than further north or south.
Mark
Edited by Coast Watcher (Mon Jun 12 2006 10:06 PM)
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rrickynsc
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Bluffton, SC
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It's been so long since this area has had a real hurricane not sure people will take warnings very seriously.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Given what happened elsewhere in 2004 and 2005, I think they'll take it probably overly seriously just to stay safe.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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no major hits in the 20th century, true. they got hit by cat 2 or weaker storms in 1911, 1940, 1947, and 1979. the 1911 and 1940 storms actually came ashore in extreme southern south carolina.
six majors hit in the 19th century. 1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1893, 1898. all but the last two were in september... 1893 was late august and 1898 was early october. there were direct hits from other significant hurricanes in 1837 (possibly major) and 1881 (likely cat 2). there was also a significant impact in the area from a northeastward moving storms that hit the northeast gulf of mexico in 1837(2), 1846, and in 1896. all of these were major on the gulf side.
georgia has either been incredibly lucky for a century, or were incredibly unlucky in the 19th century. there's really a lot of uncertainty of which is actually the norm, or if either is... that's the problem with establishing what is normal, because there's only so much history to analyze before there are no reliable records.
the georgia coast is very vulnerable to storm surge, also. the continential shelf is a little wider there, along with a concave coastline. surge naturally collects there; tidal heights are more pronounced along for this coast to begin with. fortunately, it isn't very developed. most of the islands offshore are public land and closed to development... jekyll, st. simons, tybee, wilmington, and to a degree skidaway have development... numerous others have very little on them (cumberland, sapelo, ossabaw, st. catherine's, the altamaha delta islands). coastal development is mostly in chatham (savannah) and glynn (brunswick) counties. camden has a few areas vulnerable to surge like around st. marys and the king's bay complex.... mc intosh has darien and a few small villages.. not a whole lot to break... liberty and bryan are getting more coastal development in the potential surge zone, but due to their locations up marshes the battering action of waves would be mostly damped.. more of a flooding threat. the most potential damage would exist with a west/northwestward moving storm hitting south of savannah, driving the maximum surge into the urbanized area.
HF 0127z24june
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jun 24 2006 02:54 AM)
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suziqt
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Loc: GA Coast
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Thanks HF and Clark. Good observations for me to pass on to those that believe we are protected by the gulf stream. I live on the Liberty coastline looking out at St. Catherine's Island. A beautiful place but beauty comes with a price - when , not if, will the next hurricane hit. I remember a storm in March 1993. Those same marshes that HF mentioned were below water with whitecaps at high tide. Even have a couple of pictures of marsh hens sitting on air conditioner units in the Yellow Bluff area. The wind kept the tide in the tidal creeks for quite a while. I know that we will certainly leave if necessary.
i used to live in hinesville when i was a kid, so the area is all familiar. didn't know the march 93 storm caused much surge in ga.. mostly just nw florida. because of the nature of the coastline surges really are enhanced.. a cat 3 can cause 15', a cat 4 up around 20'. no documented 5 has hit the atlantic coast north of extreme s. florida, so those are just hypothetical threats. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Jun 27 2006 08:16 PM)
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
Thanks HF and Clark. Good observations for me to pass on to those that believe we are protected by the gulf stream. I live on the Liberty coastline looking out at St. Catherine's Island. A beautiful place but beauty comes with a price - when , not if, will the next hurricane hit. I remember a storm in March 1993. Those same marshes that HF mentioned were below water with whitecaps at high tide. Even have a couple of pictures of marsh hens sitting on air conditioner units in the Yellow Bluff area. The wind kept the tide in the tidal creeks for quite a while. I know that we will certainly leave if necessary.
There were a lot of people in LA and MS who thought they were "safe" from storm surge too because they'd gone through Camille with no problems.
The bottom line is, if you're within 10 miles of the coast and you're within 15 feet of sea level, it's not a bad idea to have an evacuation plan because it's far better to leave and not need to, than to not leave and have to hunt down an axe to chop through your attic. We're at 11' of elevation on our lot, but maybe 2 miles from the GOM as the crow flies, if that. I always said I wouldn't leave unless it was a "serious" storm. After pushed all that water ahead of it, and with the close-call we had with , I work on the assumption I'm leaving unless the track is clearly away from us. I'd rather go through all the aggravation and then not leave than to wish I'd left.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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TUXIE
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: southern new jersey coast
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thanks clark and hf
here in southern nj coast i've always thought that we too are protected as much by the outer banks as the ebb and flow of the weather patterns.
what concerns me most is that people here won't take a hurricane watch or warning very seriously. i feel we truly do have a "that won't happen here" outlook. so many storms over the years (snow storms, northeasters,ect) have come up the coast, been forcasted to affect us and then made a right turn at the outer banks, that people will not take a watch or warning seriously. of course if everyone up here proves me wrong and do take the watches and warnings to heart, we like everyone else along the east coast will have the "fun" of evacuating the coast. that should give the media alot of good footage of long lines of traffic if it happens during the tourist season.(june - mid september).
i'm looking extensively at the 1821 hurricane that moved right along the nj coast for my masters thesis (mostly for what it did to new york city), possibly still a cat 3. there is a well-documented record that cape may was in the eye for about a half an hour. getting one that big on your coast is extremely rare, but the stakes are pretty crazy as far as how much they can break. last direct hit on nj was september 1903. gotten solid impacts from plenty of nc-landfallers as well. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Jun 27 2006 08:20 PM)
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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It's important to have an evacuation plan, no matter what part of the coast you live in. In Georgia, housing codes are not what they are in Florida, so unless you know how high you are and are confident that your house is up to hurricane code, you would well be advised to know exactly what you plan to do when a warning is posted in your area.
The Georgia coast consists of large series of oblong barrier islands (not long and skinny like the OBX) separated from the mainland by several miles of salt mash and strong tidal rivers. The inhabited islands are accessed from the mainland by long causeways that are several miles in length. On my last visit, the three most populated islands (Tybee, St Simons/Sea Island, and Jekyll) each had only one major road on/off the island, but all of these are new, raised, and widened  . Still, evacuations are going to put a tremdous load on these exits. In addition, if you plan to stay and ride out the storm on one of these islands (not advised), chances are the causeway may be damaged during the storm -- even a minor one. You had better be prepared to fend for youself for at least 2 weeks with no power or running water or supplies from the mainland.
Unfortunately, once you're off the island, the westward evacuation routes in this area have not been expanded enough to handle increasing populations over recent years. I'm not saying that they haven't been exapnded, there's just alot of worry that the roads haven't been expanded enough to handle the load. You gotta remember, even when you get off the islands, the surrounding coastal area may be only a few feet above MSL for 20-30 miles inland. And a lot of these inland areas have homes and communities in surge/flood prone areas that are NOT up off the ground like they should be. All these people have to evacuate, as well.
Obviously, there is I-16 going west out of Savannah (which will become one-way during an evac), but farther south, you have only minor state and federal highways that don't really go anywhere, which makes it awfully hard to find a hotel. During an evacuation, don't plan on being able to use I-95 or US 17 to go north or south if the storm is out in the Atlantic. More than likely, half of Florida will already be filling up these roads from evacuations as the storm swung by the northern part of the state on its way to Georgia. These types of scenarios have been examined based on current infrastracture and populations, and a due-west route is about all the state patrol is going to let you do anyway.
You can plan your Georgia evacuation by visiting http://www.georgia-navigator.com/hurricane/
One thing to remember: if you pick the route towards the largest population center (i.e.from Brunswick, if you take US 82/SR 520 towards Tifton verses SR 32 through Alma and on to Douglas) you may have a lot more heavy traffic. However, on the other route, you may have tremendous trouble finding a place to stay since there are only a handful of tiny tiny tiny motels. You may want to spend an afternoon driving your route of choice and scouting motels. Write down the phone number and address and keep it in a safe place so you can quickly make reservations if you ever need to evacuate.
Hurricane DO strike this area. I grew up on St SImons and have vivid memories playing in the fresh water from an artesian well right in the middle of the beach. The well was once in the BACK YARD of a house on Postel Avenue. The road and alomst every house on the road were washed into the ocean during a hurricane in the 1940's.
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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