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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66351 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:30 PM

Usually out around 945 ish with the forecast advisory

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66352 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:31 PM

The 10pm advisory is based on CDT. That means 11pm EDT. I still have no clue why they are issuing advisories in CDT. The only thing I can think of is that the "center" of Alberto is in the CDT time zone. Don't worry...it'll be here before you know it. I wouldn't expect too many changes.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66354 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:32 PM

They are issuing it as CDT because Alberto is indeed in the Central Time Zone.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: HCW]
      #66355 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:33 PM

That's 945pm CDT.

It will be very interesting to see what the NHC does with the latest model guidance. Just as the guidance gave up the ghost on the northeast turn (apparently), Alberto seems to me to be shifting that direction. Go figure!

Edit because the advisory is now out, at least in part. Movement now NNE.
Tropical storm center located near 25.3n 87.7w at 12/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 15 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.


No change to watches.

7pm CDT position was 25.1 87.8 so I'd hardly call that NNE, but since 4pm CDT it is NNE.



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 11 2006 10:36 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Hugh]
      #66356 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:34 PM

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z MON JUN 12 200

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66357 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:38 PM

Quote:

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
0300Z MON JUN 12 200

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 87.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.




I cann't forsee the NHC shifting the track much more than where it is now; especially if the current track is now at 015 or NNE

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: chase 22]
      #66358 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:39 PM

track moved a little north i think... still in the big bend but a little more north i think... waiting on full adv. to come out


based on my "quick maping".... looks like the same general area... i would say near cedar key..or just south of there as a week system. seems like there waiting on recon?

this was last line msg in obs 10 from AF304 (SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE)
OB 10
POORLY DEFINED WIND AND PRESSURE CENTER. ABBREVIATED 50 MILE SW OUTBOUND LEG

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 11 2006 10:45 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66360 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:43 PM

Yep, I compared the last forecast track with this one (numbers-wise) and it did shift a bit north, but nowhere near the guidance.

What does "ABBREVIATED 50 MILE SW OUTBOUND LEG " mean? They have recon, according to the public advisory, which is out now but does not say much at all.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 11 2006 10:47 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Hugh]
      #66361 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:47 PM

look stewart is back~

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006
...DISORGANIZED ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS TROPICAL STORM ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER... AND EXTEND MAINLY EASTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NEARBY SHIP WAS 1004 MB

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...87.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART


waiting on discussion.... ITS GOING TO BE GREAT, I BET.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jun 11 2006 10:50 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66362 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:54 PM

I wonder if they will extend the watch to the north west a little more based in the 10pm NHC track

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66363 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:55 PM

*biting lower lip waiting for discussion*... this should be interesting indeed with Stewart writing it.
Probably won't say much different, though... should mention the fact that the models have shifted, but the forecast didn't take that into account so maybe something new has come out to counter the different models?
I would have expected at least some change in forecast track, and there wasn't any, or nothing significant anyway. We'll see.

HCW: No, as I said, there were NO changes to watches at the 10pm CDT advisory. Maybe in the morning if the models don't toggle back to the east?


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 11 2006 10:56 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66364 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:57 PM

Um.....87.7? is that a typo by the NHC? more like near 87.2 moving near 40dg or NE...even recon report 1 hour ago had it at 25.3 and 87.4 I agree with the 25.4N though.....also like clark said... expect to see this fire up some over the next 12 hours.....throw out the 18Z models and lets see the 0Z runs coming in now.....

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: scottsvb]
      #66365 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:58 PM


data from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft this evening indicate Alberto has changed little in
overall structure. Several small-scale circulations have been noted
in satellite imagery rotating cyclonically around a mean center...
and the advisory position is the midpoint between those swirls. The
advisory position is to the west of the last recon position at
12/0143z... and is close to the centroid of the large surface
pressure envelope. The 40-kt intensity is based on the Assumption
that the recon aircraft may not have sampled stronger winds to the
east of the flight track within some of the stronger convection.

Upper-air data this evening indicate the mid- to upper-level ridge
previously located across central Florida has eroded and lifted
northward to northern Florida...while the low-level ridge has also
shifted northward but has remained intact all the way westward
to eastern Texas. This...coupled with the southwesterly upper-level
flow...has maintained a moderate to strong shear pattern across the
cyclone...which is expected to continue for the next 12-18 hours.
After that...most of the models agree that the deep layer flow will
become vertically aligned from the southwest...and that should act
to turn Alberto northeastward toward northern Florida. The GFDL once
again appears to be overcompensating for the vertical shear as it
takes the cyclone more northward into Georgia... as does the FSU
superensemble by 36h. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous track and follows the general mid-level west-southwesterly
steering flow pattern after 24 hours...which keeps Alberto south of
the subtropical jetstream and in the divergent right-rear quadrant.
Once Alberto turns toward the northeast...the vertical shear is
expected to abate somewhat. This may allow for some slight
strengthening in the 24-36h time frame...as suggested by the SHIPS
intensity model... but not as robust as the GFDL model.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: scottsvb]
      #66366 - Sun Jun 11 2006 10:59 PM

Per Stewart's Discussion:
Several small-scale circulations have been noted
in satellite imagery rotating cyclonically around a mean center...
and the advisory position is the midpoint between those swirls.

Looks like Stewart completely ignored the model runs! Interesting.

scottvb: 0z BAMM is already out. It puts landfall near New Orleans.



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:04 PM)


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #66367 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:00 PM

It looks like the Tampa Bay area will finally receive a good rainfall overnight. With the NNE movement of the storm, a wide band of heavy rain should move northeast across the Bay area after midnight.

While I still think this storm may not hold TS strength at landfall, I do notice a burst of convection developing near the center of circulation. It will get sheared off to the northeast, but it may extend the life of Alberto a little while longer. In any case, it matters little where the exact center of Alberto comes ashore. Most of the heavy weather with be experienced in a wide swath south of the center.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: scottsvb]
      #66368 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:04 PM

I agree scott...we should discard the 18Z model runs. I personally believe these runs are too far north and that the circulation will come ashore farther south than the current NHC track. It is a weak storm, and it doesn't matter too much, but points north of the landfall point will get little impact.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Interesting.... [Re: Hugh]
      #66369 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:08 PM

Check out the very last frames on this Storm Floater loop:

Storm Floater Loop

What is that area of convection that seems to just "blossom" to the SW of all the other convection? Anyone have any ideas? Or is it just a burst of convection and nothing more? I can definitely see the NE movement now; but it also appears as if the LLC of Hellberto is being sucked into that large mass of convection near the Yucatan. Is it possible that this new area of convection will be the "new" area of the LLC?

Sorry about that link, I don't know what happened...but since I originally posted it, the area of convection I was talking about just got larger.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:19 PM)


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Interesting.... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66371 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:10 PM

Colleen...bad link?
Helen


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track [Re: Ronn]
      #66372 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:12 PM

Hugh.. the tropical suite of models are really horrible in tracking a tropical system...they could be get it right..but thats usually when the GFS and GFDL models are inline with them.....to alot of mets..they are like..entertainment, sort to speak.

Ok well I see why they put it at 87.7 next recon will make a more accurate account on the center point...


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Interesting.... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #66373 - Sun Jun 11 2006 11:13 PM

I saw the same thing... in fact, I've seen it numerous times today. The convection bursts and then fades.
Several things COULD happen, but what will is anyone's guess. One possibility that I had not considered but I'll throw out there now is that Alberto does whatever it's going to do, but the area that is over the Yucatan stays behind and eventually moves out into the Gulf or BOC. Complex doesn't begin to describe the situation. Reading Stewart's discussion was a big disappointment because it seemed to be so... simple... and it seems so strange to me.

Scott: if the models are so horrible, what do they use???


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 11 2006 11:14 PM)


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