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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Eastern Carribean
      #66824 - Tue Jun 13 2006 11:41 AM

Question:

I appologize in advance for my ignorance, but how come none of the recent model runs are picking up anything from that wave that just entered the Eastern Carribean?

Is it simply because there is nothing there or the pressure in that area is not low enough for anything to develop?


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Reaper]
      #66831 - Tue Jun 13 2006 01:08 PM

Well i may not come up with such an educated answer(like the one you were looking for), but yes that wave and the wave behind it are in the tropical weather discussion in The NHC website. So we will probably see the model runs sometime this week.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.
THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY 1200 UTC
TODAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA


--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 01:10 PM)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66841 - Tue Jun 13 2006 02:08 PM

we got to much focus on this wussy alberto. there are some very big waves out there one huge wave off africa right now. i think we are paying too much attention to this stupid alberto. who cares about alberto. this is gonna be a long season tho.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Reaper]
      #66843 - Tue Jun 13 2006 02:10 PM

I'm glad you asked that because I was looking at the satellite and reports last night and wondering the same thing. I know enough to be dangerous (so to speak) but I'm still learning all the jargon. I just know my "gut" is looking at some of these "blobs" and thinking uh oh.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: madmumbler]
      #66844 - Tue Jun 13 2006 02:15 PM

I posted this earlier in another place and got no response. So, what do you guys think?

June 13, 2006

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 28N77W BEYOND 32N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
65W...AND PRETTY MUCH ALL THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ...IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST WITH THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE...ONCE IT FINALLY ENTERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PROBABLY WITH THE 13/1200 UTC MAP.

All of you who are much more knowledgeable than I, what do you think?

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #66846 - Tue Jun 13 2006 02:27 PM

I asked Clark about these waves earlier today, he said they would need to move closer to the Western Caribbean before they would do much, just to early in the season for much to happen that far east. But hey you never know.

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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Nateball]
      #66850 - Tue Jun 13 2006 02:52 PM

We'll have to keep watching them... something can come up this weekend.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.75N 80.54W
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Reaper]
      #66855 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:37 PM Attachment (313 downloads)

From this sat picture it looks like it has potential. . . but of course, I don't understand the LLCs, etc. that make or break such a storm.

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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: DJINFLA]
      #66857 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:50 PM

Here are the pictures:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO, the mess behind it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

POST MORE IN: Area Of Interest: Eastern Carribean Topic.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 03:56 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Eastern Carribean [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66863 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:07 PM

Quote:

Here are the pictures:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO, the mess behind it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

POST MORE IN: Area Of Interest: Eastern Carribean Topic.




The big "blob" on the left is the one I was looking at.

When the discussions talk about the "v" shap, what do they mean exactly?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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