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Archives >> 2006 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea
      #66859 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:53 PM

Active tropical wave with a focal point near 13.9N 65.5W at 13/18Z moving to the west northwest at 20mph. Forecast movement should be generally westerly for the next few days. System has good convection and in about 24 hours it will move into a more favorable environment for additional development with wind shear on the decrease and slightly warmer SST's (29C). Although this one hasn't received too much attention, some slow development is certainly possible in a couple of days. Please feel free to respomd with your comments regarding this wave and its development potential (if any).
Cheers,
ED


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #66860 - Tue Jun 13 2006 03:55 PM

This is my last post from the other forum topic discussing this.....

Here are the pictures:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO, the mess behind it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 13 2006 07:16 PM)


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Nateball
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 40
Loc: Tarpon Springs FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66861 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:03 PM

Thanks for starting this thread Ed Ive been looking at that wave all day wondering what potential it might have to develop in the next few days.

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Nateball]
      #66865 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:09 PM

That's the one I've been looking at.

What do they mean in the discussions when they talk about the "v" shape?

Trying to get myself more educated.

Thanks!

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: madmumbler]
      #66867 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:24 PM

Because its a V like this: < if you look closely.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED
AHEAD ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND
TOMORROW PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A MODERATE TO STRONG SURGE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

If anyone knows which wave this one is below, please tell me. (the one above is the one we have been talking about).

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG 20W/21W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEFINED
WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 7N. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN
14W-27W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS WAVE AND TRACK IT TO THE WNW NEAR 15 KT
AS A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 282
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #66869 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:32 PM

Looks pretty impressive on IR. Correct me if I`m wrong. Isn`t the North East Carribean known to be an area where tropical development seems fall apart this time of year. Probably wrong, but I know I read about this area being a death zone for tropical systems. Maybe all the the stuff that we are used to reading and knowing about doesn`t apply, seeing that the last two seasons have been either on a record setting trend both storm wise and where the systems form and move.
The second batch of clouds behind it out on the Atlantic looks like there may be a mimimal chance to developement . Is this unusal for this time of year?.......I hope all is well with all you regular posters.....Be SAFE...Weatherchef

Edited by B.C.Francis (Tue Jun 13 2006 04:36 PM)


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #66870 - Tue Jun 13 2006 04:37 PM

The clouds behind it:

A DOMINATING 1032 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 38N32W COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN PRODUCING
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND ITCZ CONVECTION. THIS LARGE DOMINATING HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.< well have to watch stuff in atlantic and off africa. But for now!:

And yes, it is kinda unusual for this kinda year. But i can already tell this season is gonna be active in the beggining. And the climate in the western carribean in June is favorable for development...it will have to be watched. The islands its hitting are reporting TS force gusts because of the wind surge on the Caribbean Waters.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 04:54 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66875 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:04 PM

The "V" signature they discuss is actually an inverted V, kind of like ^. In the tropics, low pressure troughs and the winds around then result in kinks of the typical east-west flow pattern. Given that the flow around an area of low pressure is cyclonic, you get a northward component to the east of the wave axis and a southward component to the west of the wave axis.

The easterly trades also help at least partially explain why the southern side of the circulation is the last to develop for most systems; it is working against both the trade winds and the storm's motion.

The feature being discussed along 20W/21W is an unusually active tropical wave for this time of year. The GFS in particular is bullish with this wave in terms of development, but all too often last year it was bullish on many waves. If all of those features had panned out, we would've seen about 35 named storms. Anyway, it bears watching, but likely will not develop until the Caribbean -- if at all. It is extremely rare to see something east of the Lesser Antilles in the month of June, so it has that working against it.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Clark]
      #66876 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:08 PM

Ya it has a small chance to develop.. but if it survives(keeps its distinct wave signature and axis) into the central-eastern carribean, it has a better chance.

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66880 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:32 PM

this's the wave i've been yammering about for about a week. it looks impressive right now, but if it does anything it'll probably get shunted into belize or something. some of the earlier global runs had a stronger weakness near texas that could draw it up from there... later runs are showing heights building across the northern caribbean all the way to the yucatan and driving the wave straight west later in the week. probably too far west for a significant system to turn up.
don't think it's chances are all that high. model support has been fickle to say the least. upper winds should be mighty friendly on it by about thursday, though... so i guess nothing is impossible. mind we've already had an above average june.
the waves out over the altantic look more like august waves than june ones. GFS is building a low with either one... some of the other globals see similar things. the front one at 40w is quite impressive if not a convective marvel, and is more or less on track to move over warm SSTs under generally low shear. broad and dealing with plenty of dry air (and some pushy trades as well), so anything out of it would be slow. the one further east is probably model voodoo like clark says. if it got detached from the ITCZ like shown it would also run up over cool SSTs and mess itself anyway. hasn't been a tropical storm east of the islands in june since 1979; it just isn't something to bank on. june 2000 and 2003 both produced june depressions that lasted a couple of forecast cycles, however.
harder to brush this kind of stuff off after last year, though.
HF 2232z13june


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: HanKFranK]
      #66882 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:34 PM

Can you give me a link to the model runs if possible?

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66883 - Tue Jun 13 2006 05:47 PM

Quote:

Can you give me a link to the model runs if possible?


Model Runs

Edited by Black Pearl (Tue Jun 13 2006 05:52 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Clark]
      #66885 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:22 PM

Quote:

...Anyway, it bears watching, but likely will not develop until the Caribbean -- if at all. It is extremely rare to see something east of the Lesser Antilles in the month of June, so it has that working against it.



Did He say Bear Watch?? Already! It's just June 13th.

Logging in this evening there were two areas that caught my eye on the Upper Right Corner of the screen.
Alberto's remnants over the SE US, and a bright white area of cloud over the Lesser Antilles.

Hank, and others have been watching the model runs over the last week and this system has been persistantly consistant (PC).

We'll have to watch this and see if the excessive forward speed will overpower the E Caribbean graveyard of storms. I'm also watching to see if perhaps it makes it to the Eastern Hebert's box benchmark for a SW Atlantic route.

Hebert's Box

Time will tell. That's why they call it weather.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 13 2006 07:40 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: danielw]
      #66887 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:42 PM

I too have been watching this wave all week with HF and today, when most of Alberto was ashore, i looked at the IR and WOW. Also noticed the eastern atlantic wave and the one coming off africa right now. The TWO has given mention to the first two twice now i think. Question tho here is can anybody tell me what criteria the NRL site has for putting up an invest. I would just like to watch what these things do before the invest comes up and sometimes I miss the whole deal.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #66888 - Tue Jun 13 2006 07:51 PM

yeah looks as if alberto is bringing a little friend with him on the sw side near yucatan.

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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: nl]
      #66889 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:08 PM

Heres a impressive view of the wave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66890 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:18 PM

Quote:

Heres a impressive view of the wave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html




The only thing I can say after looking at that is WOW..... Get them supplies ready...... Hang on we are in for a long, fast & active season

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Stormwatchin' Dan
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 34
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Jenny]
      #66891 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:23 PM

Well, IF this develops.




TRUE! \/

--------------------
My Hurricane Season 2006 Prediction: 15/8/5

Edited by Stormwatchin' Dan (Tue Jun 13 2006 08:34 PM)


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Stormwatchin' Dan]
      #66893 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:31 PM

Well IF this develops OR not, getting your suppiles ready is good advise. Probably going to need them at some point ....

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Jenny
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Bradenton, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Eastern Caribbean Sea [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #66895 - Tue Jun 13 2006 08:43 PM

I agree Storm Cooper, I just think this is a sign of what the season is going to be like. Barely is one TS making landfall and there is something out there to keep an eye on. This is already alot of action for June.

--------------------
Jenny
www.bbdigitalphoto.com

Edited by Jenny (Tue Jun 13 2006 08:44 PM)


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