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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
BOC Low
      #68365 - Mon Jul 24 2006 09:52 PM

From the 9:42 PM EDT Excessive Rainfall Discussion.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
942 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

...VALID 03Z TUE JUL 25 2006 - 00Z WED JUL 26 2006...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
(edited~danielw)

...AREAS OF HVY RAIN APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SE TX CENTERED ON THE CNTRL TX GULF COAST. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HEAVIEST ON TUES AS MDLS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE TX COAST AND ANY DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES DEVELOPMENT.
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RNFL AMTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES IN THE AREA FROM HOUSTON TO VICTORIA.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94qwbg.gif

Excessive Rainfall maps to +30 hours

Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 24 2006 09:55 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
More Discussion Excerpts [Re: danielw]
      #68366 - Mon Jul 24 2006 10:04 PM

This excerpt is from the Quantative Precipitation Forecast Discussion. Also known as the QPF Forecast.
(edited~danielw)

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
604 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

...DAY 2...
WRN GULF COAST...
VERY HIGH PWS/85H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES STRETCHING FROM TEXAS COAST INTO LA THIS PERIOD.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER...PER PMDHMD..WITH ITS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/OZ
ECMWF/12Z CMC/12Z ENSMEAN/9Z SREFMEAN IN FOCUSING HIGHEST AMNTS NEAR UPPER TEXAS COAST.THIS OCCURS WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT 85H JET OFF GULF OF MEXICO ON EASTERN SIDE OF INVERTED MID LVL TROF.SITUATION MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT BASED ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF T.D. IN WRN GOM.GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MST FLUX AND DURATION OF EVENT...ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREA FROM MID TX COAST NORTH TO SW LA.

Bold emphasis added to isolate the Area of concern for heavy rainfall~danielw
Graphics and full text are available at the link below~danielw
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Explanation of abbreviations and acronyms used above.

Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 24 2006 10:53 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Worst for last [Re: danielw]
      #68368 - Mon Jul 24 2006 10:24 PM

I apologize for the length of the two above posts. Prediction Centers aren't usually known for short forecasts. Unless the sky is clear.

Last night I saw mention of a possible tropical wave moving into the Cay Sal Bank area of the Bahamas nearing this week's end. The following reinforces that forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 12Z THU JUL 27 2006 - 12Z MON JUL 31 2006

...THE CANADIAN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IT BRINGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHER MODELS STILL SEEM TO SHOW A PATTERN THAT ALLOWS FOR YESTERDAYS HPC/TPC COORDINATED FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AS DEPICTED IN THE UPDATED PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR TODAY.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Some model support now [Re: danielw]
      #68371 - Tue Jul 25 2006 11:17 AM

0Z CMC still bullish on this wave but more to west now & brushing E coast of Fl. Yesterdays 12Z & todays 0Z
MM5 is picking up on it as well & is similiar to the 06Z GFS keeping it over the Bahamas & outer edge of Fl E coast. This is with the 850 vorticity. Some consistency now. NOGAPS shows nothing & UKMET only goes to 48 hrs.


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bobw211
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: WPB, Florida
Re: Some model support now [Re: twizted sizter]
      #68447 - Wed Jul 26 2006 02:48 PM

all of my local meteorologist are all staying that a wave is gonna effect s. florida but the dates are different

Don Noe--Mon

Mike Lyons--Sun

we will just have to wait and see if it can hold its self together to get here


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