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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
2 A.M. Update [Re: scottsvb]
      #69213 - Thu Aug 03 2006 01:55 AM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69214 - Thu Aug 03 2006 02:01 AM

For folks wondering about the future of low level Chris and Mid-level Chris name convention.... The 2 AM should seal the deal...Low level Chris is still the trackable "Chris" and Mid-level Chris is "Thunderstorm Activity". If by chance, and in the very rare chance, the mid-level area ever developed...according to this it would not be under the same name. Likewise...It looks like wind-down time...

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. "


Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 03 2006 02:03 AM)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69215 - Thu Aug 03 2006 02:03 AM

No doubt........ if thunderstorms dont re-fire around the LLC soon........ "Chris" will be no more...


WW-911


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69219 - Thu Aug 03 2006 02:21 AM

Time for a poll!
What will become of Chris?
Users may choose only one (24 total votes)
He will live on for the next few days and re-organize.
-
9 38%
He will die by the hands of sheer and dry air.
-
15 63%


--------------------


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69220 - Thu Aug 03 2006 02:47 AM

Mother nature has it's own way of doing things and we weren't suppose to be talking about Chris but it is indeed here. So, it looks like if Chris continue to suffer with the wind shear and dry air, I think it will be in the history books. But we need to keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty is still large, it could drift to the North or drift to the South or continue on it's main path. We will have a better understanding of the storm by tomorrow afternoon and if it will have any impact here in The States.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #69221 - Thu Aug 03 2006 03:36 AM

Not surprisingly, CIMSS Adjusted T is reflecting this with a sharp upturn (weakening)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/CHRISP.GIF


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69222 - Thu Aug 03 2006 03:39 AM

I'll hedge my bets just yet, simply because we've seen Chris and pre-Chris be fairly tenacious up until tonight. Plus, I just have to suspect that something may still bore down to the surface near PR under that deeper convection/MLC - anti-cyclonic outflow is still reasonably impressive over the convection, too.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: cieldumort]
      #69223 - Thu Aug 03 2006 03:48 AM

Wow, talk about an unexpected twist. So Chris is now a vigorous low level swirl heading wnw while the mid level and upper level convection was shoved in a sharp ssw direction. In fact the convection is heading so sharply ssw, that if a surface center does develop, it may end up missing PR and actually ending up in the Caribbean.

Meanwhile the LLC seems devoid of significant convection, and will remain so for at least the next several hours until it can get far enough away to flare up again, assuming that it survives long enough to do so.

Re: Naming issue in 2004, Ivan has a debate over naming conventions when the center was tracked up over land up to Maryland, which then dove south over the atlantic, to cross back over florida and into the gulf, where it reacquired tropical characteristics and the NHC opted to keep the name Ivan for it. In this case, if the Mid/Upper Level Low manages to form a new surface center and the NHC does have to start advisories, It will have a new name, as 'Chris' remains a trackable entity. (though they could refer to it as Chris Prime .... nah)

-Mark

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69224 - Thu Aug 03 2006 03:58 AM

Ok so in Layman's terms what is going on with Chris? Is he dead or alive or can he make a come back? I don't understand whats going on with him?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69225 - Thu Aug 03 2006 04:00 AM

Here is an excerp from the 2:05Am Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030615
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. SOME SPIRAL BANDS
ARE AROUND THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER BECOMING MORE WELL-DEFINED . ITS CENTER IS NEAR 20.0N
65.5W MOVING WEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #69226 - Thu Aug 03 2006 04:15 AM

Well, by CFHC member opinions , it would seem that we are about 2-1 of the belief that Chris is a gonner. NHC alluded to this in their last advisory, as well. However, to be fair, I have seen many a low level center that has been swept almost entirely clean of deep convection make a come-back. If this were to happen in his case, Chris would really go down in tropical history as "Come-back Chris!"

So, to answer your question - we don't really know for sure if this is the end of him, or if he can stage a come-back.


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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #69227 - Thu Aug 03 2006 04:16 AM

With this decoupling of Chris taking place, it begs the question:

Has any tropical cyclone ever split into two distinct parts before (with lower and upper levels going in different directions) and then both parts regenerated their missing portions to become two independent cyclones?

From what I gather here, after a decoupling, it's much more common for the upper and mid level circulation to spin down a new LLC than vice versa.

But if I remember correctley, "The ghost of Ivan" which was a LLC that took a long round trip over the US and back into the Gulf of Mexico, only to rebloom with convection and then regain tropical status, is a recent example of the LLC regenerating the middle and upper layers.

Any history on this?


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 416
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #69228 - Thu Aug 03 2006 04:28 AM

Quote:

Ok so in Layman's terms what is going on with Chris? Is he dead or alive or can he make a come back? I don't understand whats going on with him?




Mets can probably give a better answer than I, but I'll give it a go. There are several componants to a circulation center in a tropical cyclone. For simplicities sake, they are divided into Low Mid and Upper. A tropical cyclone is specificly defined by the low level circulation. (along with presistant convection and a few other criteria) Storms that have their low mid and upper level circulations aligned (or stacked) vertically, tend to be the ones most organized and able to strengthen in a friendly environment. Storms that are not aligned (typically due to shear), tend to weaken or have difficulty gaining strength.

in this specific case, an impulse hit the mid/upper levels of chris and knocked it out of align with the low level center. one way to look at it, imagine taking a sharp knife and hitting a stick of butter, the butter will split in two. (probably not the most accurate analogy, but my first idea was garrots, and we certainly won't go there) Basicly that's what happened to Chris, The impulse was so sharp and sudden that the mid/upper level circulation was pushed off without being totally disrupted. (which I believe is very unusual)

If I had to hypothisize, I'd guess it's because (as mentioned earlier) the storm was a relatively small one, hence more vulnerable to being broken apart vertically (as opposed to a larger storm which would remain unaligned but still a singular distinct entity).

What it means? Well HF listed several possibilities.

basicly the low level swirl (now totally visible on sat pics), keeps the name chris. Chris may or may not regain convection and not dissapate, but certainly will take some time to regain strength if it does. That will continue WNW for the forseeable future.

The Mid/Upper level center may or may not push the circulation down to the surface. I don't think it's possible for that circulation center to reattach back to 'Chris', so if it does manage to build down, it will get a new name, and there will be a new storm.

That's basicly what happened with an idea on why. As for what's going to happen? No clue. I'd say for the next 12 - 24 hours, make some popcorn and watch with the rest of us, because at this moment, I don't think anyone has good grip on the storm(s).

What won't happen? You won't see a significant hurricane coming out of this mess, at least not in the near term. So nothing to worry about for now. but still something to keep an eye on.

-Mark

--------------------
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2016.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: 2 A.M. Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69230 - Thu Aug 03 2006 05:34 AM

well 5am pkg calls for chris to weaken, which could and may happen..... ***used another word**
That's strange...the 5 Day forecast still takes Chris to the Mid GOM, at Minimal Tropical Storm strength.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. ~danielw



the shear is still there this morning... and i dont think there are going to be any fire up storms for the next few hours near the low level center.... you can clearly see the low moving away to the west...... and the upper level is also starting to weaken....
i kinda wonder at what level was the spilt... what alt did the winds come in and carve off the top?

GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY.... ALL YOU CAN DO IS WATCH

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 03 2006 08:57 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
5 A.M. Update [Re: Bloodstar]
      #69231 - Thu Aug 03 2006 05:42 AM

Forecaster Avila has updated the Forecast Discussion.
I'll quote him here...

..."I WAS TEMPTED TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/030839.shtml

Chris has Not Been Declared Dead or History. So please don't turn your back on this one. CHRIS may be History later, but as of the 5 AM Advisory it's still an Active Tropical System.~danielw


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 5 A.M. Update [Re: danielw]
      #69234 - Thu Aug 03 2006 05:53 AM

New thread is up...Please post and read there.
Titled...Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens


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