WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
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Incase you're having trouble seeing the LLC seperating from the main convection.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 03 2006 01:16 AM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Almost always easier to make out on the shortwave (IR Channel 2)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2-l.jpg
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Hey guys I found this picture of Chris's split personality. It shows the LLC maybe heading to an area still favorable for developing and the MLC heading south to who knows where. What does everyone else think?
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Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 03 2006 01:13 AM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Oh yeah...decouple is totally complete...Folks this is the best way to see it yet for sure...Believe it or not...through the visible floater loop(which goes black and white IR at night) all of the low level center has departed now. It's now very apparent that Chris' low level and mid level center have devorced due to irreconcilable differences. Take a look: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
This is amazing to me...Mid level not winding down yet...I bet San Juan is up for some good t-storms.
Maybe Chris,the low level system dies in Cuba and the mid level,if it keeps going gets in the carrib. before DR, but Chris' signature will have to go away for the mid level low to devlop. Yes...Stay tuned for a potential lesson in tropical cell division. (gang, pardon the humor...but ya gotta laugh sometimes...I just spent the night doing laundry in preparation for pre-landfall deployment to Chris as an EM myself...I'm very happy that folks may not sustain damage and need my help after all)
Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 03 2006 12:40 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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big question now is which version of chris (if either) stays chris. can't be both. the surface circulation is now a convectionless swirl, but is heading for the more favorable environment. the upper part is maintaining itself (for now) as an intense convective feature, but has no future unless it can establish a low level circulation.
my initial thought was that the upper part would continue, since it looks much more robust... but i dunno... the lower part conintues wnw and will be in a better place before long... historically these bottom features have survived, too.
things are changing by the minute, and chris has thrown us a nasty curveball as far as forecasting goes. i'm just not sure which way to lean at this time...
HF 0439z03august
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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HF....as a rule, thunderstorms are more likely to spread winds down to the surface. Remember all the surface invest areas we've watched this year, which shot up no t-storms? Mid level is hanging on good for now...If low lrvel Chris winds down, the mid level may sport a new, small low level center. If it ever did, I bet it would spark a naming debate for years...Usually, re-naming is affiliated with trackable surface centers, but this mid level system really is the meat and potatoes of this cyclone. This could really be interesting...and I think we've gonna learn a lot about the weather in the next 24-48 hours.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Didn't one of the major storms...like or Jeanne split apart, then whatever half went on to be a huge hurricne?
I know it was in 2004, correct?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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While watching Chris...we forgot to lock the back door.
Persistant area of disturbed weather over Grand Cayman.
Adding yet another player to this week's Mess.
Best seen here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Didn't one of the major storms...like or Jeanne split apart, then whatever half went on to be a huge hurricne?
I know it was in 2004, correct?
I can't remember the 2004 season...But that "K" storm last year was the product of a "Split".
Currently there is no connection between Chris' split and the 2005 K-storm split.
That was TD10 and TD12.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Well, I do not hold as much hope out for the LLC that has just skirted off to the west as I do for the MCS (ahahaha!) that is heading south-southwest... My first and initial take is for the MCS to birth a new LLC, as the ongoing convection is still so impressively healthy. I would consider this the more likely scenario. Less likely, I would consider the LLC to re-fire some new convection overnight. Less likely yet, the LLC re-fires AND the MLC births a new LLC. Now wouldn't that be a turn of events! Can you just imagine? Who gets to keep the name, "Chris"? 
I should have also included that they come back together as another possibility.. but at this hour, I think that's looking a touch unlikely.
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 03 2006 01:13 AM)
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Personally...... I think the low level circulation will be the one to maintain tropical status....... given the fact that its headed for more favorable conditions....... and the mid-level circulation is going to "hang out" in the unfavorable area a while.
ONLY TIME WILL TELL.........
WW-911
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 03 2006 01:04 AM)
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
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Quote:
I can't remember the 2004 season...But that "K" storm last year was the product of a "Split".
I guess this "K" you're referring to is ..?
And yeh, I think it might have been that storm which did the splits. Living all my life in Florida for 52 years, kinda hard to get them all straight...ha ha.
And you can't remember 2004?
Um, it was like 2 years ago when Jeanne and inhialated the east coast of Florida...let alone the havoc Charlie caused!
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Toanswer you question...Yes. and no Jeannes surface circulation died just north of the Dominican Republic...It then reformed to the North East in the Bahamas...However, Jeanne was reduced to nothing but a tiny vortex at this time....Low level Chris is quite a bit bigger.
The proof: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/dis/al112004.discus.021.shtml?
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Quote:
Personally...... I think the low level circulation will be the one to maintain tropical status....... given the fact that its headed for more favorable conditions....... and the mid-level circulation is going to "hang out" in the unfavorable area a while.
I agree, I think the LLC has the best chance for development, however it needs convection in a hurry or it will be just a naked swirl in the ocean. There is that much dry air in it's direction and the water is warmer and deeper, who knows what will happen. 
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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To respond...The mid-level low should could sustain itself through the upper level difluence...instead of outflow, but loose it's signature over time. We'll have to wait and see.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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I've been tracking Chris all day. What a confusing storm. I see the MLC splitting from the actual center and pulling all the convection with it.Weird situationWe'll just have to watch and see. Thought i'd see the 1st Hurricane of the season but i guess not.. Next week is not out of the question.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
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Here's a really good doppler radar close up which also includes a lat/long grid ...
http://www.geocities.com/sieklone06/TS-Chris2.html
Charlotte Amalie on the US Virgin Islands is starting to see some good action by the looks of it.
Note: this image was taken on Aug. 3,at about 1:20 a.m EST.
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2004: Alex, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma
2006:?
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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I know everyone says wait and see what happens with Chris but does this decoupling mean this is the death of Chris and if not then why and which is more likely met wise Chris dying or reforming? Also what % of storms that decouple go on to reform or are they likely to die after this?
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W.D. Duncan
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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there is a massive amount of dry air north of puerto rico...and over the LLC..........that is why there are no T-storms...the midlevels of the atmosphere there is very dry....the dry air pushed into chris from Nerly shear from the ridge building south...thus it shoved the SSW towards PuertoRico with the midlevel circulation...
Case closed..thats whats happening... now what happens to the midlevel cir? probably dies out while the LLC moves W towards the straits as nothing much.....
Surprised again I was that Chris even made 60mph but it did...and I busted that....but I went against all odds except couple global models and saw his destruction with the dry air..upperlows and shear while most were saying Cat 2... and said a couple days ago it would happen today.....Im kinda sad though...I would like to see a Cat 3 in the waters..but of course out of everyones path...no one wants to be hit by that.....sainley..if I spelled that right..LOL.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 03 2006 01:51 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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With this particular Storm...who knows.
I'm looping the Base Refelctivity Radar from San Juan, PR. Both circulations are visible on the loop.
I'm not seeing any decrease in coverage or intensity at this time. Loop ends at 0545Z.
While the SW moving circulation is the more Intense of the 2. The Low Level circulation to the North has a very good radar signature.
The latest frame indicates that there might be some decrease in intensity on the NE side. That could be due to attenuation of the radar, also.
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