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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: READ THE UPDATE [Re: stormchasersince1976]
      #70146 - Tue Aug 15 2006 08:21 PM

Alicia also formed in about that area where the blowup of convection is. If nothing else, it is interesting to watch but NHC did mention it.

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Colleen A.
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95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #70155 - Tue Aug 15 2006 10:29 PM

Hey folks...NRL has that GOM BLOB as 95L. Here's the link:

95L - GOM

It will be interesting to see what happens with this one. Gulf temps are warm, but I'm not sure what the other variables are out there.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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cieldumort
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70159 - Tue Aug 15 2006 10:42 PM

Shear is *extremely* low in the north-central GOM right now.

The trof which gave birth to this Low, is also now essentially history, leaving a pretty decent "pure" surface low in it's place -


One thing I am keeping an eye on - how the incoming MCS from the north interacts with the still embryonic and weak low. I suspect that too much outflow could snuff out whatever hint of nocturnal convection there is tonight - and perhaps completely disrupt the feeble organization. On the other hand, should that MCS cross over and into the area of pre-existing higher PVs and lower SLPs - maybe a recipe for TC -

Lots to be gleaned from here by daybreak, I think.


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Colleen A.
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: cieldumort]
      #70160 - Tue Aug 15 2006 10:47 PM

I agree...it's hard right now to tell whether it's going to do anything or not. The next day or two shall tell the story. So, for now, I'm signing off. Have a good night!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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cieldumort
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70161 - Tue Aug 15 2006 10:56 PM

Heh. No sooner had I stated that it looks like the trof has essentially washed out, Dr. Lyons during the TU mentioned that the Low has lost too much of it's convection - leaving a touch of a trof behind in it's wake - I'll certainly buy that - the convection went woooosh! - Still, upon very close inspection, I can find a low level swirl with some hints of small puffy clouds -- hints

It still looks to be 06, and not 05, that's for sure!


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Genesis
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: cieldumort]
      #70162 - Tue Aug 15 2006 11:20 PM

That nasty MCS is over my house right about now and headed south. Its blowing like a banshee with plenty of lightning......

Its interaction with the low out there could be very interesting. It could easily disrupt what little is left - the convection has basically evaporated along with the daylight this evening - or it could impart more energy to it, essentially giving it a "kickstart."

The latter would not be good.....

I suspect by morning we'll have somewhat more of a handle on this one. I would definitely not like to see a homegrown system - but there's very little shear over the gulf right now, and the SSTs are both warm and deep - down to 80' near the coast water temperatures are as high as 85F...... not good.

--------------------
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HanKFranK
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: Genesis]
      #70163 - Wed Aug 16 2006 12:52 AM

that's the thing about MCCs. the convection goes out and if there isn't a feedback already started, there isn't much to get it going again over water.
it's still worth watching, but like 93L east of georgia... no convection means that whatever progress the system made in organization is withering on the vine. it's two steps forward and three steps back.
we've seen pretty much every system this month flash up, make a brief run at organization, and then waste away as convection fails to persist. in spite of a favorable synoptic pattern.. larger scale influences like MJO and the large areas of subsidence associated with the downstream regions from the large continental highs and the southward-displaced subtropical ridge have essentially everything choking. short of an MJO wave modifying things and giving everything an extra 'kick', it looks like we're waiting for the end of summer/early fall scenario where tropical SSTs and tropical wave activity peaks, and mid latitude troughs become more amplified and stimulating to features in the subtropics prior to the late fall increase in upper winds.
just recently the westpac is cooled off a tad (and the huge monsoon trough has broken down to a degree), while the eastpac has reactivated... usually in the 6-10 day range after eastpac activity easterly anomalies start to jumble up the atlantic and take hold for 2-3 weeks.
one way or another our quiet period is likely to end soon. been a while since we got 'august lite'. there are two more weeks for the usual fare of recent years to start asserting itself.
usually starts to... right around august 20th.
HF 0451z16august


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dem05
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: Genesis]
      #70164 - Wed Aug 16 2006 01:16 AM

Overall, this weather pattern is highly complicated and there's a lot of competition in a small area folks. On analysis, I believe one of two things will happen: a.) No development at all or b.) the underdog no one thought of is gonna make a go for it...so here WE go. I'm gonna outline this below in three outline steps, but if something does develop from all of this, I'd have to believe it will be in the NW Bahama's.

First, I'd like to get into the Shortwave loop. (Once loaded, click on NWS Fronts at top of picture): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

1.) Notice that pressures have dropped somewhat with the gulf low and the one off the Carolina's (most likely due to diurnal dynamics)
2.) If you have been using this NWS tool, you will know that the low in the gulf has moved slightly east (and is not where you'd neccisarily think it is until using this tool then looking at cloud movement), Also, the Low off the Carolina's is still progging NNW. I would also like for you to look closely along the trough line through the Bahama's, there is stil a mid-low level area...just to the Northeast of Grand Bahama (2 days and counting that it has been there, and 93L did not do much to it. It's just quietly sitting there). There is also a cold front in the central gulf states and a trough over Georgia. The circulation you see over Jacksonville is an Upper Level low. Then of course, there is an MCS moving into the Gulf, which has been enhanced by that upper level low, but of little consequence other than a moisture source for the eastern half of the GOMex.

Second, I'd now ask you to take a look at the water vapor loop (click on HDW-High on top of the picture, this is the upper level winds and I'd like you to use it as an aid): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Notice four things. 1.) By looking at the upper level wind barbs...the High pressure area in the Gulf is further west than the low and likely where most of us originally thought there might be some development. 2.) Looking at the upper low that was near Jacksonville, it is movong toward the southwest. It'sone thing that the lowest pressures in the gulf are further east, but it's significant that the upper low is moving toward it and pushing the ridge to the west farther away. 3.) The low approaching the Carolina's has had enough moisture and outflow to take advantage of (but it hasn't). 4.) the area of low pressure I referenced near Grand Bahama is under the influence of southerly flow that is not helping, but the low will continue to move SW over time.

Third, Models: Okay, in general...models have shown two camps (I am not addressing 95L at this time because I believe shear and interactions with the upper low will kill it over the Gulf of Mexico). One one hand, 93L moves close to the Carolina's, then peels out. On the other hand, it gets close then shoots to the SW. Over the last few days, we have had two low pressure systems off the east coast conncted by a trough ( one being 93L, the other being the one off Grand Bahama) as these systems have gained distance from one another, 93L has gained it's identity, but nothing else. I believe that the two model camps see two different things. On one hand, the models that peel off 93L to the north and east are seeing a system that gets caught up in the earlier referrenced fronts and troughs (which is quite possible looking at the trough in Georgia and the front behind it. Here is the NW Atlantic loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html
Looking at the other option, where 93L digs SW, I think the models are trying to tell us something. 93L will wash out or move out with the fronts, then the models dig SW to pick up on the low over the NW Bahamas which would have will take over...especially if the upper low continues to prog SW and West (hence the strange and erratic look of models going that direction)

In short, I believe 93L is running out of time and will not develop, 95L will shear out. The low near Grand Bahama will have an opportunity to become better defined as the upper level low moves SW-W and 93L heads out...but if it doesn't develop...then there will be no systems from this very dynamic and complicated pattern.

Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 16 2006 01:22 AM)


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dem05
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: dem05]
      #70165 - Wed Aug 16 2006 01:38 AM

Just and FYI, the NWS Fronts have been updated for the Gulfof Mexico on the satellite loops while I was typing my last post. They will not be exactly reflective of the plots I was outlining tonight in the Gulf of Mexico before, but the idea really does not change. Just providing a heads up.

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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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*other [Re: dem05]
      #70166 - Wed Aug 16 2006 02:08 AM

my take is that 93L is still in the running, and it's the surface low progged to make a left turn off the carolinas that will be the part that goes. still no real convection, but the baroclinic zone stalling against it alongshore tomorrow should help increase convergence around the system and strengthen it.
95L doesn't do anything unless convection returns. probably won't. the new MCC roaring southward at it's surface trough will probably disorganize whatever was there.
the big other is what is going on east of bermuda. some of the globals prog that other post-frontal low out near 30/60 to persist and deepen a tad. it's over waters 28-29C, and actually has a spot or two of deep convection. longshot at a non-threatening system. another deep layer low northeast of bermuda is shown by some globals diving southward before lifting back out. has a history of deep convection as well. since we can't get anything purely tropical going, why not a hybrid or two?
longshots all. 93L has the best chance as of now.
HF 0608z16august


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Goosus
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site [Re: dem05]
      #70167 - Wed Aug 16 2006 03:06 AM

Wow, you don't see that everyday.

One moment you have a roiling twisting mass of deep convection in the gulf over warm waters, and a few hours later, the entire structure just flashes out of existance like turning off a light.

This season is damn peculiar.


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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: *other [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70168 - Wed Aug 16 2006 03:07 AM Attachment (156 downloads)

Noticed the area east of Burmuda too, but hadn't really focused on it yet due to the attention closer to home. It proabably has a better shot than anything we've been posting on the forum. 95L is definately a dead stick in the water. Since last posting, the upper low continues to prod along across FL and the upper dynamics across the gulf are quickly going south. In itself, the ridge over the western-central Gulf has lost the definition it had during the afternoon. 95L is a creation of similar dynamics of the MCS dropping into the gulf out ahead of the upper low. The current MCS will face a similar fate....it's over there. Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

93L has missed the boat to grab decent outflow and water temps to develop, and it's now growing less defined as well. has multiple virticies on the loop...Attatched a pic. For tonight, here's the loop link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2.jpg
That plus multiple vorticies along and to the east and southeast and the approaching weather to the west would indicate this is a dead stick too.

The area in the Bahama's is gonna get left behind by all parties...93L, 95L, and the upper low. The pattern will simplify and ridging will build in enough for this to have the best shot. Overall, I believe 93L, 95L and the Bahama's area will equal no named system, the trough extension through the NW Bahama's is the sleeper and has the best chances. Gonna have to go with the underdog on this one if anything happens at all.

Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 16 2006 03:15 AM)


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: *other [Re: dem05]
      #70169 - Wed Aug 16 2006 04:28 AM

Hey, Dem. Well, I've sort of believed all along that the Bahamas center has had the slightly better long-term chances of the two lows which have been competing for the title of 93L (with the one to the north winning, of late). I would guess that should the Bahamas circ become dominant it will retain the 93L moniker - just a formal repositioning (again)

I'm not yet convinced that the northern low is a gonner, tho. While I see it rushing up towards the coast tonight, I think that it has some potential to get that baroclinic shot in the arm HF suggests. Still, if one even looks to where the convection has been growing overnight so far, it's the Bermuda portion, to be sure.

As for the GOM feature, I suspect that the increasing shear could be more transient than you anticipate. This has actually been forecast by the FSU shear model... to do just this, more or less. So, best I can tell, it is following the FSU TC analysis shear forecast, generally - and if this continues - shear would then relax to very low levels, soon again.

Rather suspect that these two MCSs have juiced up the GOM quite a bit (finally!) - so that with remaining trofiness draped across there - and perhaps even 2 very weak low centers that can still be made out tonight (best with the short-wave loops, IMHO) - we may still see some TC action there within 72 hours.

All in all, it's a very convoluted pattern - with just marginal to fair chances, each, I suspect. I guess I am not ready to write any of these off, just yet.

Oooh and re: HF's potential STS out near 60W - yeah, this one's been catching my eye for a while, too. I'm already counting on the reanalysis to upgrade Beryl's subtropical brother post-season, and possibly the first 92L of the season, as well - Believe that many more legit subtropical cyclones are out there than NHC has been calling all these years, to be sure. Here's a fascinating study on 45 years worth of Atlantic subtropical storms which was presented at the 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, if you haven't read it yet


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: *other [Re: cieldumort]
      #70170 - Wed Aug 16 2006 08:12 AM

I have never noticed such odd cloud formation and placements in the atlantic since I have been watching. The clouds seem draped in odd patterns like a poorly decorated christmas tree. It does not appear to have any particular pattern that you can read.
I guess the pattern splitting the levels of the storms away from each other is a protective feature this year. I am noticing the convection coming back this morning on some of the features. It is not a good year for profiteers to bet on hurricanes.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Wed Aug 16 2006 08:13 AM)


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MapMaster
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Re: *other [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70171 - Wed Aug 16 2006 09:30 AM

Hey Guppie, I was thinking the same sort of thing this am, it is a really weird pattern, isn't it, especially with that line of convection/convergence draped across the Atlantic, what an undulating snake of clouds!

Looks like we might get two systems out of the 'Bahamas mess"...looks like the northern one is about to go (if it doesn't make landfall first)...possibly another will set up off Fl in the NW Bahamas...

Meanwhile, the little system NE of the Leewards that I called attention to yesterday...seems like it is doing..something? Odd round pattern there this am, unusual....


It is said the atmosphere has 'memory' and patterns that you see over an over again are repeats of that memory....if that is true, with the washouts we have been seeing so far, wonder what that portends for the future.

Of course, if the atmosphere loses it's current 'memory' and makes a new one....that could be a whole differerent thing.
MM


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HanKFranK
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93L organizing [Re: MapMaster]
      #70172 - Wed Aug 16 2006 10:31 AM

definitely going to be a recon on 93L today as the low center is finally flaring convection on the western semicircle. it's almost directly over the higher heat content region of the gulf stream. also drifted about as far north as it's going to, as the shortwave is currently bypassing it and high pressure/northerly deep layer steering should start to influence it soon. the convective flare further south along the trough... where the other low center used to be more or less.. is robbing the inflow of 93L a tad, but is displaced far enough away that it more likely than not will just be a feeder band later on.
recon will probably result in classification of tropical depression 4 this afternoon. surface obs and structure don't suggest anything more than maybe a 25 kt/ 1014 mb depression right now. dependent on how well the convection holds up it has a chance of being tropical storm debby over the next day or so. the 5:30 TWO is by franklin and typically gloomy on the long term prospects.. an established system would be forced south/southwestward under increasing northerly shear during the next few days. chances of this thing becoming well-organized aren't that good during the next few. it may end up ashore somewhere between daytona and wilmington during the next couple days as well.
the latest mcc is drifting out into the gulf today. there are pre-existing surface boundaries out there from the last one, and a good bit of mid-level vorticity being injected into the region... have to see if the stuff flares back up today. very miniscule chances of anything unless there is persistent convection.
waves in the deep tropics look flat and dead today. ITCZ is in its normal position for this time of year. the lows out east of bermuda are weak and disorganized. nothing else on the scene.
HF 1431z16august


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 93L organizing [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70174 - Wed Aug 16 2006 11:28 AM

93L holding it's on. Quick glance at the Dvorak enhancement...looks like it 'might' go up0.5 at the 1745Z observation. Mainly due to persistance.
I don't see much change in the cloud top temperatures between 1145Z and 1415Z. But it's still early.

95L
Pre 95L, or whatever you would like to call the MCC that ripped through AL/ MS last evening. I haven't heard that many reports of trees down since the " K" Storm last year.
Most if not all were straight line winds. But the system managed to close portions of I-59 (Jones and Covington Counties), US HWY 49( Forrest County) and several rural roads for 2-3 hours. Due to trrees and power lines being blown down.
WLOX-TV (Biloxi) reported that people on or near the Coastal Counties were still without power at 6 AM this morning.

A few posts back someone mentioned the MCC #2 disturbing MCC #1. That still looks possible. However the Morning TWD throws a bit of wrench into that theory. Here's the GOM portion of the TWD:

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS NEAR
25N87W. BUOY OBS ALSO NOW SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING AND CONFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE TROUGH
PLACEMENT ON THE INTERMEDIATE 16/0900 UTC MAP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 23N TO 29W BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING NE TO SW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR SRN ARKANSAS AND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF TAMPA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS HELPING THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN S OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W.
SHELL PLATFORM 42362 IS IN THIS VICINITY AND SHOWED THAT 30KT ENE WINDS MIXED DOWN AT 0800 UTC. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST OFFSHORE FT MYERS...ASSOCIATED
WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
16/0000 UTC GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL...SHOWING A DISTINCT REGION OF 500MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE REGION WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OFF W FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE WRN GULF BETWEEN 93W AND 98W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. SYNOPTIC SURFACE PATTERN IN THE GULF IS IN A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE MOMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/161050.shtml?


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cieldumort
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Re: 93L organizing [Re: danielw]
      #70175 - Wed Aug 16 2006 01:31 PM

The 1041Z QuikScat pass over 93L was exceptional - clearly showing that the northern center has become truly dominant today. With the deeper convection now firing over the center of this large cyclonic flow, I suspect TD 4 is almost inevitable today.

There was a fascinating feeder band- like feature overnight some of you may have caught - a line of convection, not a perfect feeder, but similar, with several embedded centers of very high vorticity - in fact, I suspect that these were possibly some low-topped supercells.

95L strikes me as another possible slow-starter. Lots of vorticity now exists in the GOM, combined with a now much juicier environment, and some remaining trofiness. As mentioned above, surface obs and high-res close-ups of Satellite suggest that a few lower level circulations still exist, as well. SSTs are very warm in the central GOM, especially so with the recent spin-off of a very potent LCE. Wind shear will be increasing from the westward-moving ULL, but this may prove to be more transitional, than long-term. All-in-all, there seems to be many of the right "ingredients" for some gradual TC baking.


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Brad in Miami
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93L QuikScat [Re: cieldumort]
      #70176 - Wed Aug 16 2006 01:47 PM

For those interested in the "exceptional" QuikScat pass to which Cieldumort is referring, you can find it on the NRL site. I believe this URL will work for a few hours: NRL QuickScat image

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HanKFranK
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Re: 93L QuikScat [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #70177 - Wed Aug 16 2006 01:53 PM

000
URNT11 KNHC 161625
97779 16204 40325 85000 70100 99005 64732 /5765
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 02
;

looks like the plane is out. the radar signature right now is marginal for a tropical depression. convection is generally increasing, though.
current movement is a slow NW drift. it seems to be in the early stages of a left turn.
HF 1753z16august


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