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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: TD 4 [Re: danielw]
      #70444 - Tue Aug 22 2006 08:49 PM

The 00Z model suite was initialized with a "TROPICAL STORM FOUR" with winds of 35kt, suggesting that we'll see TD 4 upgraded to TS Debby at 11pm. The center appears to be on the north edge of the convection, as Danny mentioned, but is slowly becoming better organized. Track and intensity thinking are still largely unchanged from this afternoon (see the blog/main page for details).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 4 [Re: danielw]
      #70446 - Tue Aug 22 2006 08:51 PM

Forward motion/ track. From the NHC Advisories.

Initial Position...5PM AST (Monday)..12.5/21.5
5AM AST position...12.8/ 24.6
5PM AST position...14.5/ 27.5

12 hour movement...5 AM to 5 PM...1.7deg N/ 2.9deg W
24 hour movement...5PM Mon. to 5 PM Tue...2.0deg N/ 6.0deg W.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: TD 4 [Re: Clark]
      #70448 - Tue Aug 22 2006 09:07 PM

Doesn't NRL usually get word of an upgrade a couple of hours before it is due to occur? The NRL site still lists the system as 04LNONAME. I'm not saying it won't be upgraded, but it doesn't look better organized to me than it was at the 5pm advisory. There's some shear, too, it seems.

Edit - Well, NRL now shows the system as 04LNONAME, but the latest image also shows pressure down to 1003 MB and top winds estimated at 35kts, which would make it Debby - so I'm confused!

97L doesn't look too impressive to me right now, either... there is a bunch of clouds aloud the ITCZ from south fo Hispaniola to halfway between the Lesser Antilles and TD Four, and I assume some of that is what is considered 97L, but it all looks pretty much the same to me.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Tue Aug 22 2006 09:21 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: TD 4 [Re: Hugh]
      #70449 - Tue Aug 22 2006 09:41 PM

The NRL page seems to be a better indicator of early classification of waves as depressions than of depressions becoming storms. It's still not a given that it becomes Debby at 11p, either, though that's what they were thinking as of the 8p model runs. Given the satellite appearance, however, and what data are available out there, I don't see why they would decide not to upgrade since then if they had indeed planned on upgrading it as of then.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: TD 4 [Re: Clark]
      #70450 - Tue Aug 22 2006 09:48 PM

I just looked at the CIMSS web site and that have bumped the Dvorak up to T3.0 with a pressure of 998.8mb and Vmax of 47K. So is it possible for it to be bumped up at 11:00PM advisory?

EDIT: The backup of the NRL site now has their's as 04.FOUR NRL Backup

Edited by Hurricane Fredrick 1979 (Tue Aug 22 2006 09:55 PM)


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: TD 4 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #70451 - Tue Aug 22 2006 09:54 PM

it looks sick right now tho. does this mean it go further south?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD 4 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #70452 - Tue Aug 22 2006 09:56 PM

Check the text listing on the ADT site. It shows that the weakening flag is on.
Raw Dvorak is down to 2.2raw...where at 2245Z it was a 4.0raw.
The center region has cooled just a bit, but the mean cloud temperature is still rising.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/FOUR-list.txt


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: TD 4 [Re: danielw]
      #70453 - Tue Aug 22 2006 10:26 PM

still looks like its going west below the second tropical point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: TD 4 [Re: nl]
      #70454 - Tue Aug 22 2006 10:27 PM

we have TS now DEBBY

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 22 2006


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM...

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N...28.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 22 2006 10:28 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD 4 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70455 - Tue Aug 22 2006 10:33 PM

I just felt more TCQ points washing out to sea.

So, 4 is now Debby, yet 93L was not a TD.

I just want to get my stats right, here.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: TD 4 [Re: cieldumort]
      #70456 - Tue Aug 22 2006 11:01 PM

Debby is a fish spinner...and has a 60% chance of becoming a hurricane down the road...but nothing really to get excited about...
Next area will be the Carribean in a couple days....


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD 4 [Re: scottsvb]
      #70457 - Tue Aug 22 2006 11:08 PM

Debby was probably Debby as early as 12-18 hours ago, but is TD Debby this late night, IMHO. Reading the Discussion, the arguments which have been made were quite compelling, of course, but would have been far more applicable much earlier - not now.

In any event, Debby just made history in my book - next to Hermine - not Hermine to be sure, but close-enough.

Ah, heck. Enough of my whining. Looks like Debby is steadily regaining her footing, so a tip of the hat to NHC for doing what they do best (Tropical Cyclones). Simply wish they would have just upgraded her when there was so much more meat on her bones, and the stats which they cited at 11p were also very current.

Looking ahead with Debby is what I, we, all should be doing now. Official forecasts have her as a minimal hurricane by the end of the coming weekend, and NHC has expressed some concern that she may miss her ride, and proceed west, not northwest. To quote, because this is so very important to watch for:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND
CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...
IF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS... THEN A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE."


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Model Runs [Re: cieldumort]
      #70461 - Wed Aug 23 2006 03:38 AM

CMC Global:
Debby...Recurve near 30N/ 52W at 144hrs. 6 days. (Monday Night)
97L..centered just North of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the GOM. 144 hrs (Monday Night)
***********************
GFDL:
Debby...Centered near 34N/ 52W, 971mb, 103kts (118mph) at 06Z Aug 28,2006 (Early Monday Morning)
97L...Centered just North of Puerto Rico, near 19.5N/ 66.5W, 1001mb,58kts (66mph) at 06Z Aug 28,2006 (Early Monday Morning)
********************
GFS:
Debby...Basically the same recurve point as the CMC Model.
97L... Maintains 850mb signature passing between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Decrease in intensity over N Haiti at 144hrs.
********************
FSU MM5:
Debby...Forecast to 25N/ 50W at 120 hrs (5 days) Sunday Night. This model decreases the 850mb signature and elongates the wave at the above point.
97L...Passing over Western Puerto Rico and Northern Haiti at 120 Hours (Sunday Night). Much more impressive signature over Haiti, than the GFS Model run.
**************************
NOGAPS:
Debby...Takes the 850mb system to near 25N/ 55W at 144hrs.
97L... More Southerly track of the models, so far.
Taking the system to just North of Panama before spinning it up. Then offshore to the MX/ Belize Boder and crossing the Yucatan Peninsula toward the BOC at 144hrs.
********************
Debby...nearly identical to the FSU MM5 model run.
97L...Winds the present system down after passing over the Lesser Antilles. Attempts to spin the system back up just North of Panama. Takes it inland on the Northern Honduran Coast.
(Possibility of feedback due to a stronger cyclone on the Pacific side of the Isthmus of Panama being in close proximity)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

With the exception of the GFDL model. All of the above are the 850mb vorticity product!~danielw

Always use Official NHC Products and Bulletins for planning and life safety.

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 23 2006 03:40 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Model Runs [Re: danielw]
      #70463 - Wed Aug 23 2006 05:39 AM

That 0331Z Aqua referred to in the 5AM discussion..

is a doozie!

I've just gone from skeptic to convert in three seconds flat. At this rate, I can see H. Debby by Friday, if not sooner.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Debby Visible [Re: cieldumort]
      #70465 - Wed Aug 23 2006 06:49 AM

Cropped 0945Z Visible picture of Debby. Notice the Convective Clusters in the North Quadrant.
Updated Visible Image link

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 23 2006 06:50 AM)


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