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#98L Approaching South Texas as #Christobal aims for Iceland. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 56 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3231 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Wind: 80MPH
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Tropical Depression 4 Forms in the East Atlantic
      #70328 - Sun Aug 20 2006 09:50 PM

6:30PM Tuesday, August 22 Update

Tropical Depression 4 has held its status as a depression today, but still has a good chance to form into this year's fourth Tropical storm. If it does so it will be named Debby. This will not affect US landfall, and will be a fish spinner, but it is something to watch.

East of the Caribbean another wave is worth watching (97L), this has the chance to form into a depression over the next few days. Those in the eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch this.

Chance for 97L to develop in the next 24-48 hours
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]





More to come...

5PM Monday, August 21 Update
Tropical Depression 4 has formed out of the previously termed Invest 96L to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Cape Verde Islands in anticipation of an impact sometime tomorrow from this system. Current forecasts show modest strengthening and a track toward the northwest -- and out to sea -- after passing by the Cape Verdes, but we'll monitor it closely nonetheless. Elsewhere, nothing in the basin is threatening at this time.

Original Post
A surprise to me at least but 96L is on the map. It is a long way out so no worries about it just yet... but this may be the "ice breaker" this season has been looking for.

There's more discussion on 96L found around here, with brief updates from Tony Cristaldi and HF in the comments section of this thread and a blog from Clark found below. To pull out the ol' "Chances of Development in the next 24-48hr" meter...

Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*-------]



Tropical Storm Debby



TD#4

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on TD#4 from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

East of Caribbean Wave (97L)

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 23 2006 05:34 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #70331 - Sun Aug 20 2006 11:06 PM

well, here we have it--92L part 2
NHC has jumped the gun here issuing an invest on yet another E Atlantic low, and just like the last several, all of the convection will collapse within 18 hours

the one west of it has a higher chance of developing, which is still almost none


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: Rabbit]
      #70334 - Sun Aug 20 2006 11:44 PM

rabbit, pretty sure the navy is calling it 96L. NHC is just mentioning it.
saw something in a news ticker earlier on fox of all places, quoting mayfield as saying they expect things to liven up soon. wxwise911 posted something about MJO coming on late in the last thread... i've been watching the activity advance across the pacific, too. add in the fact that it's the start of the fourth week of august. be really weird if nothing happens this week, man.
yeah, it's about time. the new invest looks kinda good. back in '05 we didn't have any systems develop that far east in the tropical atlantic, so that could be the furthest east we've had a longtrack system develop since september 2004.
oh yeah, just to get it over and done with, no 'debby does dallas' jokes this time around. we heard it all back in august 2000. think of something original, a'ite?
HF 0343z21august


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70335 - Sun Aug 20 2006 11:58 PM

Quote:

saw something in a news ticker earlier on fox of all places, quoting mayfield as saying they expect things to liven up soon.



Just saw this on yahoo Atlantic hurricanes could rev up any time

In addition to saying he thought things would be heating up, apparently the NHC is not sure why it has been so quiet thus far...

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.
"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Bill


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: BillD]
      #70336 - Mon Aug 21 2006 01:41 AM

If my memory is correct, 94L came off the West Coast of Africa(popping up some wicked convection) and died off the day later.

The Saharan Dry Air has been a big factor of killing those waves and it will be interesting to see if 96L holds firm and develops.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1084
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70337 - Mon Aug 21 2006 03:01 AM

96L looks pretty impressive at this hour! Have to admit - I didn't see this coming .. at least, not *right* off the tip of the continent(!)

ps: Debby can't do Dallas, it's too far inland, really. Perhaps if she comes to Texas, she can do my dishes, tho. I'll leave 'em out. Save time and money!


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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: cieldumort]
      #70338 - Mon Aug 21 2006 08:02 AM

I'm looking at the long-range models and the GFS 350hr model map, has this feature off the coast of Africa as a pretty potent hurricane off the East coast where I am in New England. They have this feature as a 988 low pressure system off the coast of NC/SC coast line on Sept 4th!! Only the GFS model has this feature in the long term.. Just have to wait and see, but the GFS has been pretty consistent for the past 2-3 days... As you can see with some of the computer model runs moving this system WNW, right now maybe we should see if any other computer models will jump on board with the GFS.. I'll keep in touch

Johnny in Maine


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: johnnyg]
      #70339 - Mon Aug 21 2006 08:51 AM

How do I see the long-range? The GFS link that I'm looking at only goes to 144 hrs.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
GFS [Re: Ed in Va]
      #70340 - Mon Aug 21 2006 08:56 AM

HERE YA GO
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
I click on "course" because it shows the whole atlantic

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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hornedcow
Unregistered




Re: GFS [Re: NewWatcher]
      #70343 - Mon Aug 21 2006 09:04 AM

NRL is reporting 35kts and 1000mb ... looks impressive on visible already

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: GFS [Re: hornedcow]
      #70344 - Mon Aug 21 2006 09:25 AM

Is the NRL refering to 96L or something else? Never mind I see what it is refering to. My question is if it has 25kt. winds (96L) why is it not a TD yet?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Mon Aug 21 2006 09:39 AM)


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: Rabbit]
      #70345 - Mon Aug 21 2006 09:49 AM

Quote:

well, here we have it--92L part 2
NHC has jumped the gun here issuing an invest on yet another E Atlantic low, and just like the last several, all of the convection will collapse within 18 hours

the one west of it has a higher chance of developing, which is still almost none




I couldn't disagree with you more. 96L has a much more pronounced vorticity signature, more and better-defined convective banding, and is less embedded in the SAL. If you had acess to 15-minute METSAT imagery, you would see this system pretty much emerged as a classic closed African monsoon depression. All it needs to do is maintain convection for the better part of another day and it will be declared a TD.


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JoeFL
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #70346 - Mon Aug 21 2006 10:28 AM

Very well formed area of disturbed weather moving away from the west coast of Africa, probably the best looking area we have seen this season. Nice banding features with associated low pressure. I would also expect at least depression or storm within the next 24 hours or so if it maintains convection.

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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #70347 - Mon Aug 21 2006 11:14 AM

Links on the Saharan Air Layer

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html

If you go back 24hrs you can see that 96L is behind the bulge of dry air that follows the previous wave, which also looked somewhat formidable right as it came off the coast.

Also I find the Meteostat-8 IR enhanced loop interesting...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/movies/metirnhc/metirnhcjava.html

...in that you can see the wave prior to 96L, then 96L, a dead space (or IR at least), and the next two systems, all evenly spaced.

With regards to this compared to Ed's blog on the main page, I suspect the African wave train is picking up speed - I think this season will make the 4th storm by the 25th and the 5th before 9/10


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hornedcow
Unregistered




Re: 96L Is On The Map [Re: FloydRTurbo]
      #70348 - Mon Aug 21 2006 11:20 AM

Must have been a typo or I need glasses - 96L is still @ 25kts and 1008mb ... although it still looks ominous

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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Burst of Convection Near Jamaica [Re: hornedcow]
      #70349 - Mon Aug 21 2006 12:48 PM

There appears to be a burst of convection near Jamaica this morning. Are conditions improving for development in the Caribbean?

Caribbean Burst


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Burst of Convection Near Jamaica [Re: Black Pearl]
      #70350 - Mon Aug 21 2006 12:58 PM

I noticed a few days ago some of the models suggested a flair up down there running into the Gulf of Mexico. Today the models don't see anything but little rain events. So go figure. Maybe the Mets onboard here have a better take and can fill us in.

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stormchasersince1976
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
Loc: Clear Lake City, Texas
Re: Burst of Convection Near Jamaica [Re: Black Pearl]
      #70351 - Mon Aug 21 2006 01:07 PM

Several models last week suggested something moving from the SW Caribbean into the GOM this week, at the time their was nothing there. It looks good but nobody is discussing it, have to see if it persists.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
degrees of interesting [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #70352 - Mon Aug 21 2006 01:10 PM

taking it from east to west today:
96L looks mighty good. tony c. already covered the particulars and i don't see much else beyond that. a large number of the globals are showing early development and taking the system generally northwest. SSTs past the CV islands cool off below threshold for a stretch, so if it goes up early it will knock itself back down. those that develop it maintain it through there, though... GFS has it meander nw for days and recurve well east of bermuda (east of 50w even). hard to believe it won't get a little further west than that... but who knows? more stock in the globals when it gets a bump up. FYI folks who look at the NRL estimated intensity... that's just an estimate that isn't necessarily right. it's usually based on satellite appearances and those can be quite wrong, especially under shear conditions, or with some that have more convection than real organization.
closer to 40w is another bulge on the ITCZ, with elongated turning. there are enough globals that see this region and keep it a discrete feature further west that it's of some interest. i guess it's a wave, but a low-medium amplitude one that's very much ITCZ involved. days away from doing anything if at all.
the western caribbean feature is also of modest interest. it looks like most of the energy is going northwest towards the bay of campeche/yucatan, but one good burst of convection is located west of jamaica and track more northward. it doesn't seem to have any surface reflection, but is somewhat persistent. disturbed weather should be strung across the southern half of the gulf going into midweek, as an item of interest but at this point doesn't look like anything significant will come of it.
looks like the rest of the month should stay fairly active at this point.
HF 1710z21august


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: degrees of interesting [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70354 - Mon Aug 21 2006 02:17 PM

Hmmm, wish I had read more of the threads today before churning out 800 words on 96L, but nevertheless I've posted a new blog about it and its chances. You can access it on the main page or through the Forum, your call. My thinking falls in line with Tony and HF, just adding a bit more as to why it may (or may not) take that NW turn all of the models suggest. I'll add more later if events warrant.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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