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#Barry now a sprawling Post-Tropical Cyclone, but still producing flooding. Few disturbances in the Atlantic we are keeping eyes on.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Barry) , Major: 280 (Michael) Florida - Any: 280 (Michael) Major: 280 (Michael)
40.6N 82.0W
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Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
E at 17 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: 97L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70560 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:06 PM

Quote:

looks like the low has passed the islands and is racing ahead of convection... think it needs to slow down some...or like hank posted... it will run its self to death...
1Km Vis




Running itself to death is a GOOD thing as far as I'm concerned!!! *LOL*

I'm sitting in a hospital waiting room, so my memory isn't that great this morning, but either on a newscast at noon or the TWC tropical update before that, there was a 45mph gust reported on one of the islands. Don't ask me which one -- I don't remember. One of those down thar. So it's definitely got a little blow to it.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: RECON [Re: danielw]
      #70561 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:09 PM

yeah thats close to what i came up with... see recon made first pass from NW to the SE and now are flying west, just north of the South American coast...then they should turn back to the right/NE and make another pass from the SW to the NE... which i would think they may do a vortex drop if they think they have a center.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: 97L [Re: madmumbler]
      #70562 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:09 PM

danielw Would this close the center off or is there something else?

000
URNT11 KNHC 241756
97779 17574 50120 62000 03100 21015 23229 /0009
42110
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 11


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 97L [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #70563 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:14 PM

this is all i could find as for radar on the system
Its in french, use google if you wanted it translated I think there is a 1008mb low

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 97L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70564 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:27 PM

Quote:

this is all i could find as for radar on the system
Its in french, use google if you wanted it translated I think there is a 1008mb low




I have been saving these images since 1430 UTC, so I have a 4-hour loop going. It's pretty neat, and if someone has some web space handy, I'd be glad to U/L it for all to see.

Just to add my 2 cents in here, the low level vort stucture of 97L continue to improve markedly with persistent curved convective band east of the center. I agree with HF that it is either just closing off, or trying like heck to do so.

Not going out on too big of a limb here when I say it's just a matter of time that it becomes a TD or gets initialized as a low-end TS. Big ? as far as intensity here is the evolution of the upper low progges to cut off over the western Caribbean and then retrograde westward ahead of 97L. How strong the ULL becomes and what kind of separation does it maintain between itself and 97L.

Track seems a little more certain in the short term as all the global models develop a strong deep layer high pressure cell centered over the southeastern CONUS through 72 hours, which should keep the system on a general WNW track (or between W and WNW) for the next several days.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 97L [Re: cieldumort]
      #70565 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:35 PM

They are getting close to closing off a center, but no dice yet. No wind between 270-360 degrees on the southwest side of the storm, though they did just find a west-southwest wind (250 degrees) on the south side. If it's not closed, it's close. Problem is, all of the convection is back behind the LLC as the trades are keeping the low-level signature racing ahead. When (if) it slows down, it should have a shot. Not quite sure it has the convective organization the NHC is going to want to upgrade at 5p -- we'll see.

Debby keeps ingesting some low-level stable air from the north and northeast, though less so through time. Give it another day or so and it should start to enter a bit more of a favorable environment (and warmer SSTs, too).

Edited to add -- most recent recon report threw out a 280 deg wind. We might get a closed vortex out of this one, after all. We'll know if they actually issue a vortex message in the next little bit. -Clark

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: 97L [Re: Clark]
      #70566 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:39 PM

They just found a wind at 306 Degrees at 10knots that is a NW wind. So it is most likely closed of now.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L [Re: NONAME]
      #70567 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:51 PM

Clark got to most of your questions before I had a chance to answer any of them.
I just checked to see if NHC had issued a Special...and nothing yet.

Looks to be a bit of a bumpy ride. I saw a 15ft drop in 60 seconds on 1 report.

edit:Now seeing 15 ft drop in 30 seconds. Rollercoaster ride.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 24 2006 02:54 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L [Re: danielw]
      #70568 - Thu Aug 24 2006 02:58 PM

From the Early Morning San Juan AFD.

...A STRONG AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 58.5 DEGREES WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 32 MPH AT BARBADOS AT 500 AM
AST.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=SJUAFDSJU&version=0


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L [Re: danielw]
      #70569 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:03 PM

This Visible shot is nearly an hour old. But it's relativley easy to see the different wind directions around the storm periphery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/img/2006236_1815vis.jpg.


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anon tiger
Unregistered




Re: 97L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #70570 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:04 PM

Quote:

97L is racing ahead of the deepest convection. Now drier air at the upper levels has been induced southward immediately ahead of the LLC.

See link: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI3_wv_loop.gif

You pointed out that the speed of 97L was a negative factor, and now drier air seems to be coming into play as it did with Chris.

I see big problems now. The nice environment 97L had yesterday afternoon and last night is decaying. What could have been TD5 could be killed off in the East Carribean graveyard.

cooltiger




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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 97L [Re: anon tiger]
      #70571 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:11 PM

Convection seems to be firing around the possible LLC, looking much more healthy than earlier. Banding looks good and convection wrapping around, even on the southwest.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
Re: 97L [Re: Clark]
      #70572 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:16 PM

DSA has been issued. Advisories on T.D. #5, or possibly T.S. Ernesto, start at 5PM

561
WONT41 KNHC 241912
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L [Re: Tony Cristaldi]
      #70575 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:34 PM

SFWMD Model on the front page have updated with the 18Z 5 day track forecast.
Would anyone have a clue as to why LBAR is making a hard right turn off of the Western Tip of Cuba?
Cold Front maybe...nah. It's August, and hot too!

I'm seeing an awful lot of 33kt winds from the RECON data. I think we might better fasten our seat belts.

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 24 2006 03:36 PM)


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
Re: 97L [Re: danielw]
      #70576 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:38 PM

Isn't a cold front what pushed Charley? In August?



Edited by twizted sizter (Thu Aug 24 2006 03:45 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 97L [Re: twizted sizter]
      #70578 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:45 PM

Yes it was. You have a good memory. However I don't recall any of the models predicting Charley's right turn...this early in the game. Something to keep in mind down the road...err highway.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
RECON [Re: danielw]
      #70580 - Thu Aug 24 2006 03:54 PM

I've seen many reports of flight level winds in excess of 34kts. Between 13.6N/ 59.9W and 13.9N/ 60.1W flying from the former to the latter...or NW. NE Quadrant

Appears to be setting up an outflow channel on the East side. Wispy, cirrus clouds rotating CCW around the East side and back toward the South. See the loop below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 24 2006 04:13 PM)


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