Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

debby doesn't have the SST/atmospheric conditions it needs to really blossom. the shear profile right now is very good, though... outflow is almost radial. if it's half that good as the sea temps and atmospheric moisture content go up, the storm could end up a good deal stronger than indicated officially. a lot of that depends on how soon the system encounters shear and how soon it begins to turn right around the ridge periphery. debby is the sort of storm we've had proportionately less of than usual since 2004, that is a storm that poses no real threat to land.
97L looks much better this evening than i'd suspected it would. barring a convective collapse or dramatic increase in shear (don't see either happening), it may well be classified tomorrow. might even happen before recon shows up, as the center will cross the southern windward islands during the day, and should provide evidence as to whether the surface low near 11/57 is closed.
97L, the 18th invest of the year, looks like the kind of system that is either going to off itself quickly or be a very big problem for somebody. the definition of the system, as far as how arced the windflow around it in the is, as well as concentrated/bursting convection... has improved steadily during wednesday. in the short term, it is headed through a bottleneck in the trades, where the ridge is flattened to the north under the base of the broad, modest trough in the eastern u.s. there is imminent death if it meanders too far north into the southwesterly shear zone under the ... but a flat, sheltering ridge oriented just along the north coast of venezuela to shelter it. this ridge is shown by some models to amplify (as an upper low is splitting off from the in the NW caribbean).. dependent on how much it does, it could provide a favorable environment for 97L. it doesn't seem highly likely that shear will prevent 97L from developing in the next couple of days; after that, the situation becomes confusing, because most of the globals don't show a real system (some also don't really see debby) and likely have the u/a picture all screwed up.
the big achilles heel 97L has, like many systems that have historically entered the caribbean, is its own speed. if it keeps plowing along at 20 kt or so, or speeds up to 25 kt, don't expect it to do very well. it will have a hard time closing/remaining closed, and won't be able to concentrate its energy or survive troublesome situations. this makes me hesitant to say it could strengthen much for the next couple of days... due to the high stakes involved. it is moving quickly and would likely be at tropical storm strength right off the bat if recon finds it closed. most guidance shows it slowing down as it gets past 65w or so... so if the system is still viable at about 70w it will most likely end up hurting somebody. really it has about two days in which to run itself to death... after that the u/a profile around it becomes its friend, and the western caribbean is kinda warm, too.
assuming it is there, near haiti/jamaica in 3 days... the potential future looks something like this: there is still enough zonal ridging over the u.s. and building into the western atlantic to probably keep it tracking wnw... with a bit of a weakness maybe influencing a viable system around day 2 and jerking it a tad nw... maybe giving it leeway with the upper low cutting off to the west. the upper low cutting off at the western edge of the will have to pull out, or it will just sit there like a spinblade ready for 97L to shred. if it withdraws 97L can keep its ridging and whatever vertical structure, maybe find a niche in the upper low (like chris couldn't 3 weeks ago), and start working its way up. the ridge over the eastern u.s. is zonal and not terribly strong... the models may have it a little underdone. the way it looks, a wnw/nw track would be favored towards the gulf.. unless it is way underdone or 97L fails to intensify much (in which case it would track more towards mexico).
but, just like chris at the start of the month, 97L has the potential to grow into a significant tropical cyclone and work its way into the gulf. hunch is the eventual track will be either mexico or the western gulf coast (tx/la), if a system forms. not something i have great confidence in, but don't think it will threaten florida. that is climatologically reasonable, but very risky, and not the sort of thing to take too seriously as of now. there are still some hurdles to negotiate, and it's a can of corn if it can't cut it in the near term.
HF 0429z24august

also, worth mentioning: globals indicate that another african wave may have a shot at development around the weekend. should track further south than debby at least through early next week, but the synoptic pattern over the atlantic doesn't really favor systems making it across through the next couple weeks or so. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 24 2006 12:35 AM)

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