Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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Quote:
No, it's just getting itself organized. I'm kinda concerned about this one because we're getting into the peak of the season and it looks like it's destined for the Gulf area.
Looking at the latest intensity forecast, I share this concern.
Early Cycle Intensity Guidance 
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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
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I noticed the same thing, strange when yesterday's run of the put it to cat 2/3 over Cuba, now nothing. However, the Canadian model now initializes it well, running it through the cuba/mexico gap and straight into the TX coast. The is about the only model to pick up on this.
The model initializes it as well, but takes it to the Bahamas while forming another low in the far western caribbean (another feature initialized on and off by a few of the models over the past day or so).
Based on the outlook and discussion, they are seeming to expect this system to ramp up, even though the models don't want to grab on to it. has been pretty good at predicting the rise and demise of TCs so far this year though, and if they are already sending a recon that way, it looks like we may have TD5 or perhaps on deck already.
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cwia
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Loc: hobe sound, fl
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per weather underground "Why the 2am run of the failed
The 2am EDT run of the model failed on 97L this morning, so I was quoting the results from the 8pm EDT run last night. I got an email from Morris Bender of the project this morning on why the 2am run failed:
The vortex initialized from our initialization was very weak as the initializaiton process spins up the storm to match the observed initial winds. Since the easterlies in the lower level were very strong in the analysis, it initialized a disturbance with very weak vorticity.
As you can see at hour 0 there was almost no circulation intially. As a result, our grid movement shut down at 3 hours and the inner nests could no longer follow the storm for the rest of the forecast.
The previous runs also had a very weak initial disturbance but there was enough of a pressure gradient that the inner nests continued to follow the vortex and eventually with the high resolution it developed into a signficant tropical cyclone.
In the 6z run, the weak distrubance moved out of the high resolution inner grid, into the coarse resolution, and so all we had left was a very weak disturbance that could not be resolved in the corase outer mesh.
As you can see, getting the computer models to work on weak disturbances is a difficult business! We should not put too much faith in the computer models for any weak system; it is too difficult for the models to get the starting conditions of the storm correct.
Jeff Masters"
cwia
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jo
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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first look i've taken this morning... two things i'd chance a guess at. the circulation is more peaked and nearly closed if not just barely closed. until the low passes the islands (around grenada probably) we won't have any confirmed closed center.. the convective burst on the south side is covering up the low cloud lines. based on the wind vectors in the islands to the north i'd guess that it isn't closed. probably generating max winds 25-30kt right now, but moving at near 20kt, so the low is just maybe a max on a very sharp trough.
other thing i've noticed is that while the convection looks fairly intense, the coverage is a little lower and more in the form of vestigial spiral bands. the area close to where i'd peg the 'center' is also shifted westward in the convection... shear may have increased a tad and thereby increased the chances that 97L will outrun the convection and kill itself before it can become established. death by self-induced shear is a favorite for tropical systems in this area and in this synoptic setup. a few mph of shear or forward speed can mean the difference between a strong hurricane and a fading wave.
recon will be out there around 3 this afternoon... by then we'll definitely know.. but in the meanwhile any westerly winds at the south end of the windwards, or a visible center getting out of the convection.. should let us know if we have a system in the works or a high-stakes failure to develop.
don't buy into the whims of the until you have a real system. it will give you a major hurricane one run, and an open wave the next. it's just the range of extremes you could be seeing.. reality is usually somewhere in the middle. the real battle for reality is the consistent (big hurricane, yucatan channel to tx coast), various globals in the middle that develop it only some (nogaps, ukmet), and the equally consistent (weak low opens up, nw caribbean).
HF 1404z24august
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 24 2006 10:13 AM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I see 97L streaking (naked swirl) across the Windwards, so there's an LLC but its running ahead of the convection. This is seen on the most recent visible ix 13:45 U as of this writing. We'll see if it rebuilds convection this afternoon or not. Maybe that's why the loses it today, but like you said HF, its an hour by hour deal. Systems still are struggling to organize this week. If this pattern remains, we'll luck out! Cheers!!
Edited by Steve H1 (Thu Aug 24 2006 10:18 AM)
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Mike Gaynor
Unregistered
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That naked circulation is not so naked anymore.. Check the visible out..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html
Looks like Convection is catching up with it! I was looking at the 2 a.m. GDDL where they had this storm as a cat. 2 hurricane heading north of the carribean to the east coast of Florida about where made landfall. I wonder if that can still happen. The GDFL now shows nothing but an open wave.
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Local
Unregistered
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Hey HF,
Does this count?
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html ( Trinidad and Tobago )
9 AM (13) Aug 24 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 8 light rain
8 AM (12) Aug 24 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 8 light rain showers
Winds coming around from the West, pressure just starting to fall.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Looking at the link above:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html
It looks like the winds are picking up out of the West.
Latest 10 AM (14) Aug 24 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 14
9 AM (13) Aug 24 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 8 light rain
8 AM (12) Aug 24 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 8 light rain showers
7 AM (11) Aug 24 73 (23) 69 (21) 29.85 (1011) S 6 light rain with thunder
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah, local.. i'd think that would sell it is a closed system. the latest doesn't indicate any changes to the thinking or acknowledge these obs... so i guess they're waiting on recon.
visibles... what looked like it might have been part of an LLC this morning is out in front just a tad, as noted by steve h. right around 12.5/61.5. looks like it is barely closed. latest obs out of grenada are also light southwest winds. duh, it's closed. watch, recon will get there and it might have opened back up. that'd be the day. we've had a 30kt SFC ob from st. lucia... this thing is definitely t.d. 5 and possibly also tropical storm .
franklin is at the helm right now. it'll have to jump through all of his hoops to get the nod, and he's probably the most conservative guy that does advisories, with the most exhaustive criteria.
HF 1551z24august
yeah, there aren't just one or two reports of westerly winds like normal, but more like four or five stations that have reported them. all have been from west to south.. none reporting nw winds and that may be the only hang up. of course, now that the center is out in front a bit it may not have enough "organized deep convection." should get a vortex message within a couple hours, if we're to get one. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 24 2006 12:43 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Checking back with Trinidad and Tobago:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html
We have had winds out of the West(ish) for 4 hours now:
Noon (16) Aug 24 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) SSW 14 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 24 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) SSW 14
10 AM (14) Aug 24 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 14
9 AM (13) Aug 24 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 8 light rain
8 AM (12) Aug 24 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 8 light rain showers
It looks like Grenada is now getting into the act as well:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html
Pressure is starting to drop, and winds are starting to increase.
Noon (16) Aug 24 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) SW 9 light rain
11 AM (15) Aug 24 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.85 (1011) SW 6
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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000
URNT11 KNHC 241634
97779 16344 50123 61400 03000 19028 24249 /0009
41830
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 05
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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looks like the low has passed the islands and is racing ahead of convection... think it needs to slow down some...or like hank posted... it will run its self to death...
1Km Vis
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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anon tiger
Unregistered
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97L is racing ahead of the deepest convection. Now drier air at the upper levels has been induced southward immediately ahead of the LLC.
See link: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI3_wv_loop.gif
You pointed out that the speed of 97L was a negative factor, and now drier air seems to be coming into play as it did with Chris.
I see big problems now. The nice environment 97L had yesterday afternoon and last night is decaying. What could have been TD5 could be killed off in the West Carribean graveyard.
cooltiger
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cwia
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 3
Loc: hobe sound, fl
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per dr. masters, weather underground What the new center means for this storm
"A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains. An important development has occurred in the past two hours--a new circulation center developed near 12.5N 63W, about 100 miles north-northwest of the original center near the South American coast. This new center lies between St. Vincent and Grenada, and southwest winds observed last hour in Grenada confirms that a closed circulation now exists at the surface. The old center near the South American coast now looks likely to dissipate. Inflow of warm, moist air into its center was too restricted by the presence of the South American land mass, and thus a new center farther north along the axis of this tropical wave was able to form and take over.
The separation of its center from the coast removes the primary impediment to intensification for 97L. It looks more likely that this storm will develop into at least a strong tropical storm, and probably a hurricane. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but the more northerly center increases the risk for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast."
plane is in there now cwia
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jo
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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might be starting with one of those systems that coughs out a center, has another one redevelop in the convection, coughs out another.. and repeats the process until the storm motion drops or storm relative shear either decapitates the system or relaxes enough to let it consolidate.
just read jeff masters' interpretation.. he thinks there was a center further south, and that proximity to south america butchered it.. but i think the one we see is the real deal and has been for the last day or so. if it's going to reform successfully it will have to be south/southeast of the existing center. also, the ridging around the system seems to be building unevenly nearby.. and is stronger to the east now, it appears. this is aiding a convective band east of the center and probably limiting the available convective energy to deepen the center... maybe limiting it's ability to maintain itself some.
it's a fluid situation. these weak systems can go either way when they start jumping around, and look terrible for a few hours then look inexplicably great a few hours later, only to come undone again. these new shear issues emerged right at the time the system was becoming well enough organized to 'hold its own,' so it's hard to say if it's crossed a threshold that will allow it do develop further, whether it's going to teeter for another day or two before going one way or the other.. or if the center out front is in fact the beginning of the end to this system.
i'm a little surprised the hasn't issued a special statement on the system. it's quacking pretty loud... they're running out of excuses to keep calling it a parakeet, and would look a little dumb allowing a system that looked good enough for classification right at one advisory cycle to go to an entire other cycle without saying more than 'looks well organized.' maybe the vortex msg will do the trick. of course, it could be chirping again this evening.. but it's practically screaming 'AFLAC!' right now.
HF 1712z24august
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 24 2006 01:15 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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looks like recon is nearing the system now.....
URNT11 KNHC 241712
97779 17114 50125 61708 03100 16022 21218 /0009
41610
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 07
be interesting to see where they locate the system and if what we see on vis is the true center...
there's two Air Force Planes up... on of them is up in the GOM doing some wx training... and AF303 just popped in with another obs
URNT11 KNHC 241716
97779 17164 50125 62000 03000 02013 24242 /0008 1008mb?
40310
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 08
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 24 2006 01:25 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Afternoon,
Devil's Advocate: As I see it so far, 1009 isn't especially low baro. I might be screaming "Aflac!," but it's also screaming "I'm better organized and have less shear ahead of me that 93L. Really!! I do!! Hey, guys, why don't you believe me!?" Basically, there have not been any NE, N, NW or W winds of substance I have seen so far - which is not surprising given the ambient flow in the region. Unless that min. central pressure can come down some more, it may be a bit challenging to a possibly somewhat conservative year at to justify numbering.
On the flip side, this "wave" is already producing gusts to 50MPH.
Hmmm. Down to 1008 .. getting closer 
the islands to the north have reported winds ne-se. st lucia had east winds around 30 kt in a squall earlier. several stations have been reporting 20-25 kt winds for hours. if you've got a closed tropical low and winds like that.. fact, it's a depression. -HF
Alright, but I think we'll need to see winds from the *west* for it to be truly closed - ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 24 2006 01:54 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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just thought this was interesting the other plane in the GOM that is doing training... appears to be flying around the ULL in the GOM....they were just south of Apalach. and west of Tampa....flying southeast... wonder were they are heading.... The plane in the carribean at 97L should be looking for a center now...
is it me or did they fly past the center we see on vis and not make a vortex drop?
URNT11 KNHC 241731
97779 17324 50122 62800 03100 02016 25249 /0010
40310
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 09
this obs appears to me to be SE of what i thought was the center? Wonder if they flew right over it? Did they not make a vortex drop? Anyone else think so? This would put them on the east side of the southern islands?
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 24 2006 01:42 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Wind direction is from 020 at 16knots. Normally a NE Quadrant position report.
As best I can see from their position reports and the wind directions they are still trying to 'close off' a center.
I've seen three wind directions at right angles to each other...but not a 4th wind direction in the reports.
Without that 4th direction it would tend to be an open wave...nearly closed at this time.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Going back over the data. Using wind direction and radar altimeter.
Center looks to be near 12.31N/ 61.44W
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