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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean
      #70762 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:05 PM

7 AM Update 8/26

Ernesto has made it through the night, and probably some of the worst shear it will encounter, which leaves just a bit more shear today and tomorrow, but gradually upper level high pressure will build over it, giving it the potential to become a major hurricane as it nears Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall Ernesto became more organized overnight.



For Jamaica, currently it is forecast to be a stronger Tropical Storm as it approaches the island. A tropical storm watch remains up for the island, if Ernesto were to strengthen more than forecast in the short term, it may be possible to see a hurricane warning or watch as well.

Beyond Jamaica things begin to be interesting, the western tip of Cuba likely will be impacted from this system, by then most likely a hurricane. Beyond Cuba, it is currently forecast to be in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which I don't like to see as it puts a very large area of coastline under the gun at least for future track. Anywhere in the cone needs to be on the watch for this system. As far west as Texas, and east as Florida. The models have trended more east overnight too, but I'm waiting to see if this persists through the day to bank on that. Unforunately, conditions are setting up to allow the system to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Midnight Update
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Haiti-Dominican Republic Border westward to the Southwestern tip of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica

Interests in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

4:40PM Update
Tropical Storm watches are up for southwest Haiti, and Tropical storm watches are also up for Jamaica.

Original Update
From Recon Reports and observations, it is apparant that Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed, and the next advisory should reflect this.

The center of circulation may be a bit ahead, but the storm still has reached enough strength to be considered a tropical storm.



More to come soon.


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations


Debby

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Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 64
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70767 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:33 PM

It appears the shear has lessened a bit over the surface vortex and that has enabled new convection to fire up on its eastern side. If the western Caribbean upper low continues to pull the shear zone back to the north and west the convection could really get going directly over the vortex once again. If the shear continues to slowly lessen overnight then Ernesto could have the green light to rev up.

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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70768 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:35 PM

awaiting the 5 pm discussion, but just another side note and i dont want to make anything of it, but i just saw joe bastardi on a cable news network and he talked briefly about Ernesto and then pointed out the area just off the soutehast coast (GA) and said he is keeping an eye on that area for "backyard" development. if that continues to persist that could be our next area.

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parrishNfl
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #70772 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM

I am still wondering about the bundle of activity in the GOM...Have any of the variables changed in the last day that are going to make a difference on steering once Ernesto is in the Gulf? Thanks so much.

tohidu - Peace


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #70773 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM

Well we now have Ernesto, not suprised at all. It looks like the storm is still holding together, a little spilt up though, but the NHC has the storm gaining strength still. Plus Max Mayfield just announced his retirement from the NHC. He will be missed and I want to say thanks for a great 6 years of forecasting!

--------------------


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70775 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:46 PM

Hawkeyewx made an excellent post in the previous thread regarding the convection moving back toward the LLC and the ULL tracking west at a good pace away from Ernesto. This should cause the shear to subside gradually and convection to return over the LCC. If/when this occurs Ernie should begin a deepening process. Eventually, the ULL will get to a position where it will be west of the system and may induce a more WNW motion.

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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70776 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:47 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: johnnyg]
      #70777 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:51 PM

The fact that they have the system slowing dramatically in the Gulf is of concern. It looks like they are not sure about the strength of the ridge, whether it turns north or continues northwest. That area is not a good one to slow down in, especially if there is no shear. It will definately be an interesting 48 hours.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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johnnyg
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: New England(Maine)
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: pcola]
      #70778 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:53 PM

Wow, that was a pretty onimous discussion at 5pm!!! we still need to wait another 12-24hrs before we can tell what's going to happen to Ernesto in the future, but reading that discussion makes me think that the NHC are getting a little concerned for the Gulf coast. Especially if 1 of the computer models stall the storm in the Central Gulf of Mexico..

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70779 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:56 PM

Just noticed NHC has moved the official track further right-closer to GFDL and NOGAPS. The center still looks a lot exposed and does it seem to anyone else that the circulation has shifted a bit northwards?

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70781 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:01 PM

it doess look like a little bit more of a northerly component, but until this thing consolidates well wait and see. it is interesting looking at the visible the convection trying to "catch up" with the circulation that is ahead of it. if a slightly more northern track takes place then at 11 we ill see a ne cane shifting a bit more to the right. south florida might be coming into the picture more as time goes on.

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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: TampaRand]
      #70782 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:03 PM

Looking good as far as the center not forming under the convection. The LLC seems to be holding and the convection remains off to its east. This sadly might be our only chance to avoid a major hurricane making landfall in the United States come the end of next week.

I am off to work, so I will check back in when I get home in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Sending all the voodoo from New Orleans down to the Caribbean that I can!

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: TampaRand]
      #70783 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:10 PM

I know it is very early in the game here but does anyone think that Ernesto could pull a Charlie and curve back towards the west coast of Florida. I quote .....

Colorado meteorologists predict 2006 hurricane season
By SUZETTE PORTER

PINELLAS COUNTY - Experts say there is a 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the Florida Peninsula during the 2006 season.

http://www.tbnweekly.com/special_section...son-predict.txt

think the reporter got it wrong. 64% chance of the east coast + florida peninsula, not FL alone. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 25 2006 05:42 PM)


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anastasia
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70784 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:16 PM

what are the corridnates i need them for homework asap

left side of the screen. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 25 2006 05:40 PM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Fujiwara?? [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70785 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:17 PM

If the 18Z NAM is right...maybe...

18Z NAM SLP Loop

That being said, I have very little faith in the NAM these days....even less than before.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 135
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70786 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:22 PM

Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Ernesto coming up against some pretty strong wind shear. I could be reading this wrong, but it looks that way to me
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-1.html
Christine


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: sara33]
      #70788 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM

That shear is being induced by the ULL to Ernesto's west, that is forecast to pull west or southwest, itself - and stay "ahead" of Ernesto. Essentially, it is expected to break free of the TUTT. Ergo, marginally favorable shear while Ernesto is in the Carib is expected to continue - more or less -

What could be much, much worse, would be for the ULL to close off as it pulls away from the TUTT, and help induce a strong outflow channel for Ernesto. This is essentially what happened with Katrina last year as she was heading into east Florida.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Fujiwara?? [Re: wxman007]
      #70789 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM

Quote:

If the 18Z NAM is right...maybe...

18Z NAM SLP Loop

That being said, I have very little faith in the NAM these days....even less than before.




This is what I have been bloging. The door is going to be kicked open for whatever this becomes to enter the GOM. And I can see that being the West Central Gulf. That ridge is going to recede. If this ever gets it's act together the door will be wide open.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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SHush
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70791 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:37 PM

I know this is unlikely to happen, but Ernesto almost looks like it is heading right towards HISPANOLA, if it takes a more northerly path and is near hispanola the MOUNTAINS could diffenently have an impact on the system's circulation

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
future [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #70792 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:38 PM

the track clustering is fairly good through 3-4 days, but gets sketchy after that (after cuba). it's reasonable to assume that the track through that period is good.. the intensity is reasonable as well due to land interaction (i.e., it may be a little stronger, but probably not a large hurricane until right before or right after it gets into the gulf).
in the gulf is where things get really interesting. the globals are showing that the ridging over the southeast weakens/gets squashed by another dip in the jet going into early next week... at this point i can see three basic options:
1) the system is strong enough (i.e., major hurricane) and the trough is strong enough to recurve it... but it will be recurving through a ridge, slowing down.. and more or less aimed at the florida panhandle. it would likely contact the westerlies and be spinning down some at landfall. it might also get dropped by the shortwave and stuck over the southeast to drift slowly and rain on everyone like hell over labor day weekend. it could potentially be a viable system near the carolina coast after labor day, under this speculative path. something like the mobile hurricane in 1852.
2) the middle option... the storm feels the shortwave but just so.. and the slows down over the central gulf to near a crawl as the ridge builds back... and has enough time over the gulf to go through multiple eyewall cycles... basically it is one hellish hurricane.. but moves slowly as it gnaws away at the ridge and keeps trying to insert itself into the weakness. ends up in louisiana-alabama and also has time to spin down prior to landfall. might get stuck inland in the southeast and rain itself out. not sure of an analog, which may represent a flaw in my speculation. georges, 1998, loosely?
3) go west, young man. the ridging is stronger, the trough doesn't provide much of a snag, and the storm keeps up the pace more westerly, and is a texas/western louisiana threat. this storm could potentially come in at a faster clip. dependent on whether it's just gone through an eyewall cycle or is going into a deepening phase, possibly presents the chance of the largest amount of wind damage. the 1865 hurricane, or maybe that God-forsaken indianola monster in 1886 would serve as analogs.

safest bet right now is that if something like the NHC official pans out, the storm will become a major hurricane over the gulf, but at landfall would likely be in the cat 2-3 range as most are. not going to lean towards south texas or mexico as much anymore, but if the system is still a tropical storm and hovering near the yucatan in 3-4 days, that is still in play.
it's really down to these options, the way i see it. i don't really have a strong leaning towards any one right now. Ernesto still finds a way to die in the next day or so, or it hits the gulf coast as a hurricane (good possibility a major) some time late next week. most likely thursday-saturday.
HF 2138z25august


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