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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf
      #70982 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:59 AM

5AM Sunday Update
Ernesto is just shy of reaching Category 1 Hurricane status at the 4 AM Advisory. Winds are now up to 70 mph and the satellite signature has much improved since 0345Z.

At 4 AM EDT, NHC has shifted the 5 Day Forecast track Eastward toward the West Coast of Florida. With the SE Portion of the Florida Peninsula, from Tampa to Miami, in the 3 Day Cone. The remaining 5 day Cone covers ALL of the state of Florida.
Latest Forecast has Ernesto increasing in intensity to Category 1 Hurricane sometime today, and Category 2 before reaching Cuba.


This morning, Saturday, Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to become better organized south of Hispaniola. The current forecast track takes the storm very near Jamaica late tomorrow and into early Monday morning, then toward the western tip of Cuba in about three days. From there, there's still some uncertainty in the forecast track.

Overnight, all models trended eastward from their previous positions, with the new NHC forecast targeting the north-central Gulf coast being just west of the guidance. The models don't quite agree on how the upper low currently in the Pacific Northwest will evolve over the next 3-5 days. They agree that it will travel westward and expand somewhat, but they disagree as to whether or not it will shear out and leave much of the ridge intact or become a more significant feature and cause Ernesto to recurve. Unfortunately, we don't have a lot of run to run consistency with either this feature or Ernesto's evolution quite yet, so stay tuned.



Residents of the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast should pay particular attention to this storm over the weekend, particularly from Baton Rouge, LA east to Panama City, FL. If current trends continue, we should have a better handle of what to expect early next workweek. But by all means, don't panic! All residents along the entire Gulf coast and in the southeast US should keep an eye on this one too in case trends reverse over the weekend. Any potential impact to the US is likely still 5-6 days away.

The upper level environment surrounding the storm, while still somewhat hostile, is becoming increasingly favorable for development. The upper low that had been situated just to the west of the storm is starting to exit the picture quite rapidly. Conditions are projected to be favorable for significant intensification over the next five days, particularly after the next 24-48 hours, and the current NHC forecast is for a major hurricane in the northern Gulf in 5 days. Unfortunately, this is a quite reasonable forecast, and admittedly perhaps a tad conservative. Recon flights will be heading into Ernesto every 6hr from here on out, so we should start to get more information on its intensity soon.



Debby is trudging along in the North Atlantic and never really got going thanks to some stable low-level air in the eastern part of the basin. It should no longer be a classified entity sometime later today or early tomorrow.

We'll have more throughout the weekend, so check back often for the latest.

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


Debby

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 04:59 AM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Clark]
      #70989 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:05 PM

Reposting HF's most recent post from the very end of the last thread for everyone's benefit:

Quote:

stuff from yesterday... looks like the eastern/central gulf options are becoming more favored by the models and officially by the NHC. the uncertainties remain in how much the ridge decays to let the storm up (not much run to run consistency on that point), and a new one today: why is intensity guidance weakening the storm over the central gulf? i think that may be a model fluke with the upper ridging (i.e., the storm will be generating a good bit) and exactly where the upper low to the west ends up after tailing into the western gulf.
the only good thing i can see in the long range is that while Ernesto may become quite powerful as it crosses the high heat region in the central gulf, there's a lot of zonal shear over the u.s. and it extends down very close to the coast. again, it may or may not be a fluke, but the GFS pushing the ridging away and developing southwesterly shear over the region the storm would be in could signify another instance (like with Katrina, Ivan, etc..) where shear helps spin down an intense hurricane to where the winds aren't strong enough to totally demolish structures.. but that doesn't do much for surge potential.
with more of the models showing a weakness over the southeast i'm more comfortable degrading the threat to areas further west, i.e. texas and the western half of louisiana. still don't see any reason it would curve sharply enough to impact peninsular florida. i can't really say anything makes sense besides the area shown in the NHC cone. noticed their late trend in the last advisory is to turn the storm more sharply near the end of the run.. and they usually drag the forecast track over gradually, which implies they might take it a little further later today (unless a bunch of models flip back further west).
i'll set my first thrat swath from grand isle to cedar key. the region of emphasis is the florida panhandle. likely threat range is a category 2-3 hurricane at landfall. time centered during the afternoon on friday, september 1.
elsewhere...
that little low on the decaying front off georgia is still there today. in a shear zone and not serving as much of a convective focal point right now... upper ridging should dominate the area by tomorrow, so if it keeps popping convection, might merit more interest. probably won't move much... out to sea is most likely in the long run.
debby is now forecast to die before being absorbed by a front. might make a little resurgence, but never got near as strong as i thought it would.
low from a washed out tropical wave moving off africa is broad but well defined. going to move through a fairly dry area with marginal SSTs.. not likely to do much developing for the next couple days. if it can maintain definition further west, could enter the mix as something down the road. tis the season.
another decent wave will come off sunday or monday.
HF 1550z26august




--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Clark]
      #70991 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:12 PM

Clark, HF, and any other gurus/experts... HF's comments about the target shifting to the Panhandle aren't surprising to me because I've been thinking the same thing since I looked at the new model runs, but the intensity forecast is what I'm curious about. NHC forecast calls for a 115mph storm offshore of the Louisiana delta in 5 days. Shift that a bit eastward, as I expect the NHC to do if the next model run backs up the last one in seemingly putting a target on our backs here in the panhandle... but HF thinks it could be a strong Cat 2 (or a Cat 3)? Is there something that could potentially keep Ernesto from strengthening beyond a "minimal" Cat 3, beyond history? Opal, Ivan, and even Katrina all began to weaken before landfall. Given what happened last year, I think it's certainly possible that Ernesto could really strengthen tremendously in the GOM (beyond minimal Cat 3). The loop current isn't any less hot is it?

oh, it'll probably be a category 4 or worse.. over the gulf. the 2/3 thing is because nine times out of ten hurricanes are weakening at landfall as they recurve in the gulf. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:23 PM)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Hugh]
      #70993 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:14 PM

I remember last year before Katrina made second landfall in LA that they were saying storms tend to weaken slightly right before landfall. Not always, but it's very common. Not weaken greatly, necessarily, but they can and do.

I don't remember the explanation for this, but I DO remember that being said. I'm pretty sure it was Lyons on TWC who was talking about that.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #70995 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:22 PM

Please continue to emphasize that the center of circulation is what is tracked, the outlying areas are dangerous from a tropical storm or hurricane when it interacts with the conditions around it, so that the West Coast of Florida if in the outlying bands could feel as much damage from small tornados as any other afternoon thunderstorm. The tracking of the center is interesting, but the danger is still not knowing how to prepare until about 3 days before it gets to your area. Do not assume it is not going to affect you until it is past your latitude/longitude and has been declared a non-storm by the NHC or NWS.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: madmumbler]
      #70996 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:23 PM

I think I remember the discussion saying something about the shallower water and land interaction didn't allow the same level of strength to retain. Think about the size of a large storm - much of it will be overland weakening before the core strikes.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70997 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:28 PM

Quote:

I think I remember the discussion saying something about the shallower water and land interaction didn't allow the same level of strength to retain. Think about the size of a large storm - much of it will be overland weakening before the core strikes.




The reason seems to be exactly that. A typical hurricane, whatever that is, requires some 22,000,000 gph. That water generally needs to be at least 80 degrees for up to 50 feet depth( but not always-like Gamma last season). As the systems move closer to shore, because of the less deep water, there is simply less to feed on and it's moving over land also also, well before the eyewall.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:29 PM)


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: madmumbler]
      #70999 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:31 PM

Quote:

I remember last year before Katrina made second landfall in LA that they were saying storms tend to weaken slightly right before landfall. Not always, but it's very common. Not weaken greatly, necessarily, but they can and do.

I don't remember the explanation for this, but I DO remember that being said. I'm pretty sure it was Lyons on TWC who was talking about that.




What typicaly happens, as HF alluded to, is that as the storms move north and then N-NE nearing 30 deg LAT, they are increasing influenced by upper level westerly winds. This increasing shear component typically weakens these storms slightly (say from CAT 4 to CAT 3) prior to making landfall.

--------------------
RJB


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #71000 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:34 PM

Quote:

Please continue to emphasize that the center of circulation is what is tracked, the outlying areas are dangerous from a tropical storm or hurricane when it interacts with the conditions around it, so that the West Coast of Florida if in the outlying bands could feel as much damage from small tornados as any other afternoon thunderstorm. The tracking of the center is interesting, but the danger is still not knowing how to prepare until about 3 days before it gets to your area. Do not assume it is not going to affect you until it is past your latitude/longitude and has been declared a non-storm by the NHC or NWS.




The west coast will also be vulnerable to storm surge, depending on how close to land the storm gets and what angle it comes in, because the eastern side of the storm will be pushing water up into shore.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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ernesto
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #71001 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:46 PM

is it just me, or does Ernesto look like its taking a jog to the north, as of right now i see this storm going a little further north than jamaica, (maybe the jamaican jog)

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: ernesto]
      #71002 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:47 PM

That's what I was saying a couple of hours ago, but I don't know if it's a true wobble or just an optical illusion because of the shear.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #71003 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:47 PM

I believe another reason that strong hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach the Gulf Coast is the cyclic nature of strong hurricanes. The loop current is positioned in such a way that rapid intensification usually occurs when the storm is at least 1-2 days from landfall. Since very intense hurricanes tend to go through eyewall cycles, storms are usually on the downward trend of one of those cycles as they approach the coast, which combined with the other factors mentioned (less deep warm water available, increasing likelihood of shear and/or dry air impacting the storm as it moves away from the tropics towards the continent, etc.) leads to a weaker storm. Obviously, when a monster like Katrina develops, it will be capable of producing a catastrophe even in a weakened state, but when a cat 3-4 storm weakens to cat 1-2 before landfall, that is a huge difference.

Storms approaching the peninsula of Florida are not necessarily subject to the factors above and some famous storms (Andrew, Charley) in that area were rapidly intensifying as they made landfall. I don't recall the last strong hurricane along the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle) which did not weaken prior to landfall, though.

Hopefully Ernesto won't put these theories to the test as a major hurricane in the Gulf, but that appears to be a possibility. As for why the intensity guidance doesn't strengthen Ernesto after 96 hours, that is difficult to say. Increasing shear would be the most likely suspect, but the last NHC discussion suggested that whatever the reason is, it isn't obvious. Perhaps it is a combination of small factors, like slightly increasing shear, an intrusion of somewhat more stable air into the Gulf, etc.


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #71004 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:51 PM

Quote:


What typicaly happens, as HF alluded to, is that as the storms move north and then N-NE nearing 30 deg LAT, they are increasing influenced by upper level westerly winds. This increasing shear component typically weakens these storms slightly (say from CAT 4 to CAT 3) prior to making landfall.




Let's remember that these are general trends and though perhaps more storms weaken as they get close to land not all do. One only needs to go back to Hurricane Andrew to see the exact opposite phenomenon. It might be possible to generalize that storms heading north/northeast within the central Gulf of Mexico tend to weaken prior to landfall. Even then, other atmospheric conditions likely play a larger role than water depths over short (24 hour) time periods.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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LSUTigerFan
Unregistered




Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe? [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71005 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:52 PM

Quote:

I don't recall the last strong hurricane along the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle) which did not weaken prior to landfall, though.




Camille


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: madmumbler]
      #71006 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:54 PM

For a 5-6 day outlook Hank has it pretty much right now....Im maybe slightly east more of Mobile-Sarasota...but Ill wait 3 days out till make any offical landfall (as does the NHC)...even then there is a margin of error....but anyways..thats my early guess..

Reasoning for that is all the models agree on the ridge decaying over the eastern Gulf..and also there might be a midlevel low coming W from just E of the bahamas on Sunday..crossing florida and into the eastern gulf .....causing Ernesto to bump around it and getting some shear in days 5-6. It all has to set up though....So expect Ernesto to move wnw towards Jamaica on Sunday...and turning NW later in the day and by Monday nearing the Isle of Youth..and crossing near Havana moving NNW slowing some more...As the midlevel low moves in conjuction with Ernesto..expect him to slow and move N or NNE then feeling the trough by Weds and then landfall sometime between then and Thurs.... Strengthwise I expect him to be a hurricane by later Sunday... and could get really strong Monday night before settling down somewhat Tuesday into Weds due to the midlevel low shearing...Landfall cat 2-3 for now..

Edited by scottsvb (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:56 PM)


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nervous
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #71007 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:59 PM

Does anyone think that SOUTH florida is out of the woods yet? please give some feedback

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: nervous]
      #71008 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:00 PM

when it gets past 80dg...sure...unless you live Marco Island.

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Mike Gaynor
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: nervous]
      #71009 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:03 PM

sorry man but the new GFS as of now takes it along the Floridas west coast. Something to watch.. Models are switching to the east every new run.

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: nervous]
      #71010 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:04 PM

I would say no, not out of the woods yet...But on the basis that the error cone slides just along the west florida coast.In the event that Ernesto did move along the eastern edge of the cone, it is important to note that tropical stormforce winds currently extend 115 miles from the center. So it's worth keeping an eye on it should it take the eastern periphery track.

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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: scottsvb]
      #71011 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:07 PM

Reading some of the recent posts, one might get the impression that Texas is "out of the woods" now. Granted the NHC has shifted the course East of its previous advisories, but the course could just as easily shift back West over the next few days. This is a very fluid situation and hopefully everyone along the gulf coast will continue to monitor Ernesto over the next several days.

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