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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: cieldumort]
      #71267 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:31 AM

Quote:

IMHO, the anticyclone is now building right on top of Ernesto, while deep convection recenters the LLC below - he is undergoing somewhat rapid intensification at this time - and may easily become a hurricane very soon -




I posted that before 3 pm yesterday afternoon. An anticyclonic ridge has been forming above it for at least 14 hours. It will be a hurricane before dawn most likely.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Ernesto [Re: TampaRand]
      #71268 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:33 AM

New advisory in, winds u p to 70 mph. I really hope I just didn't see what I saw. The new map has it recurving near Tampa as a cat 3!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #71269 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:38 AM

Quote:

New advisory in, winds u p to 70 mph. I really hope I just didn't see what I saw. The new map has it recurving near Tampa as a cat 3!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html




That track is our worst case scenario here. NHC has adjusted their's just north of us also-like Hudson or New Port Richey.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sun Aug 27 2006 04:40 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto [Re: TampaRand]
      #71270 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:40 AM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND Ernesto COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING...
AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

http://flhurricane.com/text/TCPAT5.txt


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71271 - Sun Aug 27 2006 04:58 AM

Quick note: The pressure according to the new advisory is 990MB.

That's a few MB's lower than even the recon found. Didn't see anything showing this, but the new package from the NHC is going with 990.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #71273 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:02 AM

I saw that pressure once or twice on the dropsonde reports. Since they were extrapolating the pressure I discounted the dropsonde pressure.
Now it would appear that the Flight MET and NHC have gone over the data and are using the 990mb reading.

I also saw a strange jump in aircraft altitude. Unless they are heading back to their base, they climbed over 3500 ft in 3 minutes. I hope that was't an updraft!

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 05:05 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #71274 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:08 AM

URNT12 KNHC 270850
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/08:34:20Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
072 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 3052 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 104 deg 069 kt
G. 346 deg 007 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 6 C/ 3059 m
J. 14 C/ 3039 m (much cooler air than last report~danielw)
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A Ernesto OB 17
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71276 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:22 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.UPDATE...BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC...WILL BE MAKING MAJOR REVISIONS TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FOLLOW THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
USED THE 26/18Z GFS AS A BACKGROUND INITIALIZATION FIELD FOR THE WINDS.
WILL BE SETTING UP THE GRIDS ON DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS OF 27/00Z.

ERNESTO IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 75 MPH.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 05:26 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
RECON [Re: danielw]
      #71277 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:23 AM

Change in aircraft altitude may be related to Ernesto's current intensity. It appears that they have changed from an 850mb flight level to a 700mb flight level.

That will change future wind speed reports due to the conversion factor.
I believe Clark posted a list in the Hurricane Ask/ Tell Forum.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Vortex [Re: danielw]
      #71278 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:25 AM

The 5 am discussion by Stewart is blunt and to the point.
Wow.

I'm know a lot of people will be waking up thinking Ernesto is going to the upper gulf coast.
Not so!!
Ernesto will be affecting the entire florida Penninsula from the Keys Northward and cutting
across the state. The track will of course change but I think we know the general
areas that will be affected.

Start today to prepare if you live in Florida.


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #71279 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:26 AM

Looks like I might of by accident got this thing correct before the hurricane center?

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: pcola]
#71043 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:19 PM
Edit post Edit Reply to this post Reply Reply to this post Quote Quick Reply Quick Reply

Just my observations, it almost looks as though something is pulling the storm more nortward than predicted; I know these storms don't follow straight lines, and jog around,but we should look for trends correct? The storm position, thus far, has always been to the right most model predicted location. The NHC has been shifting the CONE slightly right since yesturday, at what point do we say, wait a second, we did not forsee this influence, and pull the entire cone to the right by maybe 100 or so miles if itappears justified. Of course this puts the Florida keys, central Cuba and possibly mainland Florida Pennisula more at risk, but that is beyond our control. It just looks that eastern Jamaica,and the heart of Cuba will be much more likely to be under the gun, along with Florida. The other BIG problem there would be with this possibility, is that bigger chunks of land would be affected much sooner, and we would not have the 5 0r 6 days to prepare that the media keeps reporting. Of course, the storm would not be a Category 4 or more if this played out. Does anyon, that knows more about storms know if the above is appearing to play out, or do I have the right idea with a substantial shift of the track to the right, feel free to explain, if possible???

sorry for the typos, not good with the key board.

Edited by SebastianLou (Sat Aug 26 2006 03:23 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Ernesto [Re: SebastianLou]
      #71280 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:38 AM

Quote:

Looks like I might of by accident got this thing correct before the hurricane center?


I noticed the trend also especially all day yesterday when the storm moved more to the North.
I think the NHC saw the same thing but they have to be cautious which of course
makes you realize what the influences are that made them change this track so
dramaticly from the 11pm to the 5am update.

This is going to be the major news today in Florida as word spreads and
the reality sinks in that the storm may very well be on top of West and Central
Florida by Mid Week.

Again, prepare.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #71282 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:40 AM

New Thread up at " Hurricane Ernesto". Please post there.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Ernesto [Re: SebastianLou]
      #71283 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:41 AM

As discussed by NHC, the southwesterly shear has been inducing the LLC to reform time and time again under the deepest convection, so by default, the LLC keeps ending up north/north and east of the prior location. In fact, until we get a definitive eye popping out, the LLC may recenter some more. In a nutshell, this more northeastward track that we have seen *so far* has been the result of recentering, but in the future, the sharp turn to the right now being forecast has very little to do with the previous. A digging trof is being counted on to sweep Ernesto northeast by Wed/Th.

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