hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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Quote:
If you recall, was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...
I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.
Jack
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Katrina made landfall as a category 4 with winds of 140 mph.
It then made a second landfall as a category 3 with winds of 125.
people say it was a 3 when it made landfall but it was actually a category 4.
I think that's what I said 
Jack
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Good thinking. If you don't use your supplies for this storm, there will always be others. A good rule of thumb is to have your hurricane supplies readied for the start of each hurricane season. Then you will only need to stock up certain items that are perishable, and of course fuel and money.
Good luck !! Seems a little premature to pinpoint a landfall right now, so I will sit back and be entertained while the models flip back and forth, the scratch their heads, the prognosticators prognosticate.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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The trend has been eastward all along, as the ridge breakdown was originally discounted but now is seen as not only probable but inevitable by the globals. Its just a matter of when and "how hard."
The UKMET run is about 6 hours behind the others; of the other "global" models only the CONU and have a recent run with a landfall point west of Panama City. Curiously enough the has some REALLY bizarre behavior modelled, with the storm coming off the coast of Cuba and then making a nearly 200nm jump almost due west, before resuming its poleward movement (that one's not on the spaghetti plot) The trend is solidly towards the east - but that may not mean much as right now I suspect there are initialization problems with all or most of the models due to the rather poor "stacking" of the system. This should improve and I wouldn't be surprised to see the model tracks tighten up significantly during the afternoon runs tomorrow.
It looks like the is taking a "split the difference" approach right now, while leaving a VERY wide cone of uncertainlty. Probably smart, all things considered, especially given the poor initialization issue. Including the Keys and west coast of FL is probably smart even if relatively low probability, although I certainly do see a setup that could put this into the Big Bend area.
I'd be concerned about being prepared were I on the west coast or in the Keys simply becuase if it goes that direction you will have significantly less time - but this is definitely the time to figure out what you're going to do if the cone tightens down and you're in the revised area either tomorrow night or Monday (if you're anywhere south of the Big Bend), or certainly by Monday/Tuesday if you're on the northern gulf coast.
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Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum
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Sea Mule
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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NEW ORLEANS - Despite aggressive efforts to repair the New Orleans levee system following the destruction of Hurricane , it isn't clear yet whether it could withstand a hurricane with heavy storm surge this year, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday (quote from news today)
New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola are the largest cities at risk. ...
Let's not overlook the possibility of Tampa Bay, either....
It's hard for me to imagine that was a category 3 when it hit....I saw the destruction, and everyone knows the storm surge was cat 4-5 proportions. factor in the size of the storm too....Camille and Andrew were smaller in relative size, including eyewall.
the overall size of this storm? anyone have any early ideas on how large the outlfow and size of ?
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 76
Loc: SW FL
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Allan, was a Cat 3 at 1st landfall. Quoting report -
"After reaching Category 5 intensity over the central Gulf of Mexico, weakened to Category 3 before making landfall on the northern Gulf coast." The 1st paragraph.
More detailed - "The hurricane then made landfall, at the upper end of Category 3 intensity with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt, near Buras, Louisiana at 1110 UTC 29 August. continued northward and made its final landfall near the mouth of the Pearl River at the Louisiana/Mississippi border, still as a Category 3 hurricane with an estimated intensity of 105 kt"
Also, to keep this post on topic... It looks like the shear from the upper low to the W of is starting to slacken a bit. If it keeps moving west like this the upper end intensity forecast could hold. Hopefully we do have a little more northward movement then predicted from ...right over the entire length of Cuba! (Not to wish death and destruction upon them. I hope it doesnt make it hurricane strength by then, but then there will still be flooding...)
Edited by Myles (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Here is a link to the shear analysis updated every 3 hours:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
It is showing the shear relaxing
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Sea Mule
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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Major hurricanes will be the norm, I think.....
NOAA report on July 14, 2006: "The average temperature for the continental United States from January through June 2006 was the warmest first half of any year since records began in 1895, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Last month was the second warmest June on record and nationally averaged precipitation was below average. The continuation of below normal precipitation in certain regions and much warmer-than-average temperatures expanded moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in the contiguous U.S. However, much of the Northeast experienced severe flooding and record rainfall during the last week of June. The global surface temperature was second warmest on record for June.
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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I'm really interested to see the model runs in the morning. I really believe, and have said so for 2 days now, that there may be more re-curvature than what is being indicated currently, and have said for quite a while that a recurvature of this storm is indicated by longer range modeling from . If the scenario is that the ridge recedes that greatly and the westerlies start steering it earlier, then there is a whole different scenario pushing it to Florida's west coast in some kind of arc, now unknown. But I was really interested by the scenario that overlayed and this storm. That was actually kind of a curious thing that may mirror reality. I am of the belief , though, that once in the GOM, as a big system, it starts responding to westerly steering currents more than model tracks currently indicate, turning it earlier rather than later and it trying to steer itself around the high pressure ridge that may still remain in the forecast period. BUT, that's just IMO, not necessarily right. You can see what I have been alluding to at the experimental products, which are not too experimental anymore, concerning the MSLP Means models. The North American plots at 12, 72, 96 and 120 hours bear that out. Here is a link to those:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens_jsw/ens_jsw.html#us
Run the ensemble in the North American plots and see what happens in the 120th hour of the Re-forecast. It hasn't changed substantially in the last 2 days. That is the re-curvature I'm sure the models are looking at.
Thanks....
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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Quote:
I really believe, and have said so for 2 days now, that there may be more re-curvature than what is being indicated currently, and have said for quite a while that a recurvature of this storm is indicated by longer range modeling from . If the scenario is that the ridge recedes that greatly and the westerlies start steering it earlier, then there is a whole different scenario pushing it to Florida's west coast in some kind of arc, now unknown.
You could be right, but from my experience, once a storm gets above Cat 3 it can make its own way. A lot is going to depend on how much it strengthens in the gulf and forecasts of strength are still not very accurate in many cases.
Jack
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Quote:
Major hurricanes will be the norm, I think.....
NOAA report on July 14, 2006: "The average temperature for the continental United States from January through June 2006 was the warmest first half of any year since records began in 1895 ... ... The global surface temperature was second warmest on record for June.
I appreciate the comment, but --- surface temperature will always go up when we measure it primarily in urban areas. Our understanding of true global surface temperature is very limited and is constantly evolving, just like the instrumentation used to measure it. If the above report had some correlation to the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, we should be having a busier season than last year. Just my two cents.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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Warm SST are not the only thing that goes into making a tropical systme.
This season has been filled with dry air, and wind shear.
WW-911
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Ernesto appears to be hitting some shear right now which is prohibiting any strengthining for the time being. However, that area that he is hitting is forecasted to move westward allowing him to strengthen after leaving Hispaniola -- which is also inhibiting any immediate strengthining. What I see here is a little troublesome: the trend has been moving "the cone" to the east for the last 2 days. I just heard on BayNews9 that now some of the models are beginning to move a little further to the left. I'm not sure which ones they are, however, because the met did not mention them. The models I have seen aren't too comforting for the North Central Gulf Coast and further east; however, still has time to deviate after interacting with land, etc., so NO ONE along the Gulf Coast should let their guard down.
This is the most frustrating part of watching a storm in the GOM. You know it's going to hit SOMEWHERE but until it actually gets into the Gulf, the forecast is far from concrete.
A quick reminder to everyone: please do not "wishcast" a storm to a certain area based on your gut feelings. The media is hyperventilating over and forecasting it to be a major storm while reminding everyone how devastated New Orleans "this time last year". I think they are doing nothing but adding to the frenzy -- and everyone needs to remember these few things:
Stay calm and informed.
Make sure you have your hurricane kit and plans in place.
Follow the news and local weather reports --- the has done a fabulous job keeping the public up to date.
Do not react to every jump or bobble with ...storms are notorious for doing this and it is normal. If it becomes a trend, the will see it and their forecast will reflect it.
DO NOT focus on the black line in the middle of the "cone". That is ONLY there because that is the latest consensus of the model runs...keep in mind that there is a cone for a reason === to reflect that it could go as far left as LA or as far right as Tampa Bay.
Remember that although the storm is the most intense near the center, that the feeder bands can also cause a lot of weather problems --- flooding, tornadoes, etc, and the bigger the storm, the more area it will cover.
In other words, if you are prepared for hurricane season, then all you have to do is watch and wait. You will know if and when you have to leave and if you pay attention, it shouldn't be a surprise.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Quote:
You could be right, but from my experience, once a storm gets above Cat 3 it can make its own way. A lot is going to depend on how much it strengthens in the gulf and forecasts of strength are still not very accurate in many cases. Quote:
What do you mean by make it's way ? Takes a mighty strong storm to do that, and only few have done that.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Hmm BayNews must be looking at the GFDN. If anything they seem to be trending north vs NNW, at least the models that have run so far. Only a few of the models are 00Z at this point, most are from 18Z. I believe they added data for the 00Z so hopefully we can start to get a better feel for where this storm "may" go. If I were in the Keys right now I would definitely be taking note of whats happening.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1088
Loc: fl
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GFS might not be too far out...thing is..1 it has backing from the ..it takes it to Keywest and landfall near Ft Myers up to Tampa in 84hrs....very simular to the .......also the key is how much impact the landmass will have.....I expect a hurricane sometime Sunday....then after downgrading on Monday.. a hurricane again by Tuesday morning after it leaves Cuba....I think still he might go slightly farther west then the and very simular to the current run... ...A midlevel trough is forcasted to be in the middle gulf blocking anything more moving past 85W by Weds.
scottsvb
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dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
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Any idea why Accuweather has N.O. pasted as a bullseye.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
And the tropical wave off the coast of africa with a lower low they are not even saying anything about it. Is this not a bad thing when they have a lower low or is it worse to have an upper low.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using this link. Bullseye looks to be more of Over Mobile Bay.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2006/ae/UHAE_2_640X480.GIF
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dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
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Your right left eye was looking right and right eye was looking left. lol thanks for clearing that up.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I saw a data glitch just prior to the last transmission. May be having COMM problems again.
What happened to the HF Radio backup??
Recon is returning to St Croix.
URNT11 KNHC 270051
97779 00500 10172 67500 54600 17031 55/// /4592
RMK AF304 0405A OB 19
LAST REPORT.
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EugeneF
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
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Because InAccuweather = Satan
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