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Tropical Depression 5 forms in Bay of Campeche, forecast to move into Mexico Between Tuxpan and La Pesca as a Tropical Storm.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 59 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3234 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71036 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:55 PM

It all depends on the structure of the hurricane how fast it would weaken over land/mountains. If anyone recalls Hurricane Georges in 1998 it's core spent a significant amount of time over mountainous terrain and still held onto hurricane status. Every storm is different and every storm unravels differently. As far as track I think the global models are coming into consensus that there will be a weakness in the ridge to the north of Ernesto and also a trough digging down through the mid section of the country, the question now becomes how much that weakness is and how strong the trough to the north is when the storm arrives in the GOM.

Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte '04)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #71037 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:59 PM

latest vortex doesn't show much of a change.... 997mb... max fl winds 51kts inbound and 58kts outbound
the 58kts was measured 679.65 Miles from center?
translated recon
URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A Ernesto
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

***may just be me but something seems wrong about recon data from AF304**** Anyone else think so?

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 26 2006 03:07 PM)


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #71038 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:08 PM

If I'm reading this correctly, it looks like Ernesto is moving north of the forecasted track per the recon flight. If I'm not reading this correctly, someone please let me know what I'm misinterpreting.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 997
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: CoalCracker]
      #71039 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:11 PM

You are reading it correctly. This is a very good site to compare vortex positions to predicted track: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 103
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Steve H1]
      #71040 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:14 PM

The latest GFDL solution is very reminiscent of Elena in 1985. Funny how it was in the same time period. We dont need something like that to happen again. That was a very long 3 days here on the west coast of Florida

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71041 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:16 PM

ha... i knew that was wrong.... that WC130J has to have some jet engines on it! to go 679 miles in 39 mins!

URNT12 KNHC 261842 COR
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 51 NM CORRECTED
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A Ernesto
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: dolfinatic]
      #71042 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:18 PM

Quote:

The latest GFDL solution is very reminiscent of Elena in 1985. Funny how it was in the same time period. We dont need something like that to happen again. That was a very long 3 days here on the west coast of Florida




Elena... Ivan... Dennis... Katrina.... Four words I never wanted to hear again. Elena did a loop-de-loop off the coast of Tampa. No one wants another storm to do that, ever again.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: pcola]
      #71043 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:19 PM

Just my observations, it almost looks as though something is pulling the storm more nortward than predicted; I know these storms don't follow straight lines, and jog around,but we should look for trends correct? The storm position, thus far, has always been to the right most model predicted location. The NHC has been shifting the CONE slightly right since yesturday, at what point do we say, wait a second, we did not forsee this influence, and pull the entire cone to the right by maybe 100 or so miles if itappears justified. Of course this puts the Florida keys, central Cuba and possibly mainland Florida Pennisula more at risk, but that is beyond our control. It just looks that eastern Jamaica,and the heart of Cuba will be much more likely to be under the gun, along with Florida. The other BIG problem there would be with this possibility, is that bigger chunks of land would be affected much sooner, and we would not have the 5 0r 6 days to prepare that the media keeps reporting. Of course, the storm would not be a Category 4 or more if this played out. Does anyon, that knows more about storms know if the above is appearing to play out, or do I have the right idea with a substantial shift of the track to the right, feel free to explain, if possible???

sorry for the typos, not good with the key board.

Edited by SebastianLou (Sat Aug 26 2006 03:23 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: SebastianLou]
      #71044 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:29 PM

This morning many said on the infrared sat that it looked like Ern hit a wall...we saw the cloudtops have no westward motion. Then it seemed the center either jogged, reformed, or looped abit north. Now there seems to be nothing stopping the westward/nw motion, and it seems Ern is on the same heading as before, just a tad north...if it is a trend, we will know pretty fast...not an expert but my take...Ern should continue on the wnw track..shear seems to be lessening and the ULL is booking to the west...after that..who knows..hopefully not an Elena...didn't it finally end up in Biloxi! that would make for a horrible labor day weekend.

PS

The models are all over the place.....everything in the Gulf is in play..can't wait for the next discussion!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Sat Aug 26 2006 03:33 PM)


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Mike Gaynor
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: pcola]
      #71045 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:36 PM

My regards to cash earlier.. did not mean to affend you.. Ernesto seems to be moving closer and closer to Florida. Even the peninsula needs to moniter this. Looks like the shear has decreased as the center is covered with strong convection.. swirling around it and possibly a hurricane by tommorrow. My track takes it wnw then nw before hitting western Cuba. Then it could go north and make landfall right where our old buddy Alberto (wake up call) made landfall as a 50 mph. storm. Should be 20 times stronger then Alberto when or if it makes landfall. Something to watch and the east coast of Florida should moniter for hurricane conditions if it does this track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Mike Gaynor]
      #71046 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:36 PM

The Department of Homeland Security and FEMA have called a 3:00 p.m cdt.briefing on tropical storm Ernesto. WWL will broadcast the event LIVE on the Big 870, WWL 105.3 Fm, and WWL.com.



Direct link to listen to Fema meeting at 3pm is ... This saves you from having to make an account
http://webclust1.liquidcompass.cc/so...yer.php?id=WWL


--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: HCW]
      #71047 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:39 PM

Quote:

The Department of Homeland Security and FEMA have called a 3:00 p.m.briefing on tropical storm Ernesto. WWL will broadcast the event LIVE on the Big 870, WWL 105.3 Fm, and WWL.com.




It was after 3 when you posted this. *LOL*

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Clark]
      #71048 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:41 PM

the mainland of florida had not been in any shaded areas from this website as far as winds and damage potential. now there are shadings across the state http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71049 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:44 PM

Quote:

the mainland of florida had not been in any shaded areas from this website as far as winds and damage potential. now there are shadings across the state http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/




The mariner's 1-2-3 has had FL in it since yesterday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/175237123_sm.gif

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: madmumbler]
      #71050 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:44 PM

i think that broadcast woud be 3 central time since they are in louisiana

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: NewWatcher]
      #71051 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:51 PM

Hey guys.. I'm back and hear theres something headed for the Gulf! I've been tracking Ernesto today and looks to me like a Alabama or Florida storm. Won't surprise me to curve and do a Charley but the trough has to be really strong as HF mentioned to Mike Gaynor earlier.

<< snip by moderator >>

Edit -- please don't wishcast in this forum or suggest 'the big one' is coming.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Aug 26 2006 04:00 PM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #71052 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:54 PM

Quite a few models are starting to come into better agreement, it seems. I have linked to the 2 pm model run from the NHC as displayed by LSU. Hank or a Met here can protect me.. er, um.. correct me if I am wrong.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/ERNESTO/images/Storm-05-Spaghetti.gif

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/ERNESTO/


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RyanTheCaneMan
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: cgs500]
      #71053 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:59 PM

Quote:

I am sure that you see an influx of unregistered users during tropical activity, include me in that count. My family and I will be heading to Orlando on Tuesday, August 29th for a conference. My concern is the possibilty of us using a hotel room that someone from an evacuation zone might need. My question is this...should I worry about it? sorry if this is off topic.

Thanks,

Kev from OH




worry about yourself first man... there are a ton of hotels in otown and many people that use them during evacuations have other ways to get of the storms way than a hotel!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: RyanTheCaneMan]
      #71054 - Sat Aug 26 2006 04:13 PM

Looking at the visible, the center of circulation is still toward the western edge of the convection, but covered, and it looks like some convention is trying to fire ahead of the center to the southwest...the shear may be relaxing and we may begin a gradual strengthening.....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: pcola]
      #71056 - Sat Aug 26 2006 04:24 PM

Quote:

Looking at the visible, the center of circulation is still toward the western edge of the convection, but covered, and it looks like some convention is trying to fire ahead of the center to the southwest...the shear may be relaxing and we may begin a gradual strengthening.....




agree with you... here's a 24 image loop from today... .SPEED UP loops after it loads... SHEAR APPEARS to be relaxing to my eye..... also it looked like the southwest part of the center was exposed or almost exposed this morning.... New storms on the SW and West side are showing signs of no shear to there tops as they are pulled inward... This may be the night Ernesto gets going....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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