allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Quote:
Quote:
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
Right... on.. top... of... me!!!
Interesting, winds down to 55mph according to WU graphic... and forecast landfall intensity of 115 insteady of 120. The storm looks to be getting better organized on IR loop, though.. wonder why it's weakened.
One word friend... re-organization.. Winds are still at 60 mph. according to the 11 p.m. advisory. Wunderground is having problems right now lol. Looks like to me the core of this storm is finally developing. This may be the start of "Hurricane ". Though to let you know.. winds are still at 60 mph. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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there isn't a change.. central pressure remains at 997 mb and sustained winds at 60 mph
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bigbelly
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
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you are correct - 50 knots = 57.5389724 mph
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Finally got the advisory text to load... anxiously (with alot of anxiety!) awaiting the discussion. It's out now too...
Alludes to the fact that the highest winds measured were actually 45kts, but the aircraft may not have sampled the maximum winds. Intensity forecast assumes some interaction with Cuba, which isn't a given yet, but could be more than anticipated, too. Still, a "minimal" Cat 3 storm is now forecast to be just offshore of Navarre Beach in 120 hours.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Forecast Points:
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
Grand Isle LA US 29.25 -89.96
Mouth Mississippi River LA US 29.12 -89.11
Mouth Pearl River LA US 30.15 -89.60
Pascagoula MS US 30.37 -88.55
MS/AL border -- US 30.40 -88.40
AL/FL border -- US 30.28 -87.50
Destin FL US 30.39 -86.50
Panama City FL US 30.12 -85.70
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints_list.shtml?
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL 30.44N 86.62W
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Quote:
Quote:
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
Right... on.. top... of... me!!!
Interesting, winds down to 55mph according to WU graphic... and forecast landfall intensity of 115 insteady of 120. The storm looks to be getting better organized on IR loop, though.. wonder why it's weakened.
Actually that is still out in the water. Somewhere south of Navarre. Had to look on Google Earth. We would be feeling wind at that position though. That much is certain.
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:11 PM)
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potion
Unregistered
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Shear and lots of it. is undergoing a whole lot of shear lately. The not so good thing is that it's still keeping together fairly well. Hopefully it tracks over the Cuban terrain and gets ripped to shreds. We'll have to keep watch>
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Sea Mule
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
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Still, a "minimal" Cat 3 storm is now forecast to be just offshore of Navarre Beach in 120 hours (quote)
could be...but they NEVER forecast higher than a 3, do they? I thought current knowledge and understanding of hurricanes is that no one really understands yet why some are 3's, and others make it to a 4 or 5, under similar conditions....
If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.
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Cindi
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Panama City, FL
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So...here in Panama City, we should be making preliminary plans??? Already got the essentials, but need to pick up some stuff...maybe I'll go early tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. If it really gets close, I don't want to be stuck in large lines...
I really hope this thing gets torn apart while crossing Cuba...
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
Actually that is still out in the water. Somewhere south of Navarre. Had to look on Google Earth. We would be feeling wind at that position though. That much is certain.
Well yes, that's technically true... and I'm actually east of 87.0, but that ust makes it that much worse, because it means I'd be in the NE core of the eyewall. I'm going to try to find a wind forecast projection that has been updated, but I think we'd be feeling 100+ MPH winds at that point.
Edit: Found the wind projection. Tropical storm force winds forecast to extend from the mouth of the Mississippi to around Suwannee it appears. Hurricane-force winds forecast to extend from Mobile Bay to Apalachicola. In other words, is expected to grow, and grow, and grow...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:22 PM)
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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
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I`ve heard alot of people talking about using these graphics on Google Earth, but I cant figure it out(!).
Can someone help?
WW-911
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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OK..levity time..here's my take..pcola's house is 30.24...87.06 Forget the models guys, it must be me..if this track holds that would make 4 eyewall storms in 11 years, not counting ...i still however think that we are 24-36 hours away from a good grip...the amount of weakness in the ridge can mean a 200 mile difference...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Not a bad time to remind everyone that a Recon has not been in there since 8PM...We do remeber what happened the last time they went in earlier this afternoon when they confirmed intensity, locarion and structure. This quote is a snippet from the disco, but I am sure you've had a chance to read it...Just attatching to backup what they are seeing in the Satellite versus the recon. They are trying their best with the tools available for sure.
Quote:
THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IN A
FEW HOURS.
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hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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Quote:
If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.
If you recall, was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...
I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.
Jack
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
OK..levity time..here's my take..pcola's house is 30.24...87.06 Forget the models guys, it must be me..if this track holds that would make 4 eyewall storms in 11 years, not counting ...i still however think that we are 24-36 hours away from a good grip...the amount of weakness in the ridge can mean a 200 mile difference...
You can take blame, pcola... I was thinking it was me, but I'm a little under 50 miles east of you. Okay, it's too early to panic. It's too early to panic. It's TOO EARLY to panic!
One bright side of a very stormy picture for us, though... the greater New Orleans area, and Biloxi, which were devastated by , would be spared the brunt of , if the current forecast holds. Big IF, of course.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is out of the chocks, but not airborne yet.
Remember the disclaimer in the Forecast Advisories:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
NOTE... ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND
300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
That's +/- 3.4 degrees on Day 4 and +/- 4.6 degrees on Day 5.
Covers a Lot of Coastline!
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Here are the latest model plots graph, looks to be trending east, which makes a Fla Panhandle hit more likely.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Quote:
Quote:
If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.
If you recall, was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...
I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.
Jack
made landfall as a category 4 with winds of 140 mph.
It then made a second landfall as a category 3 with winds of 125.
people say it was a 3 when it made landfall but it was actually a category 4.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:34 PM)
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dem05
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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DanielW, Thank you forthe recon info...You are correct in your errors point as well. I would like to quicky add that folks...you do not need to break out your tracking chart to figure out where those errors begin and end...The cone of uncertainty is exactly at the mileages that Daniel Indicated...That goes for every cone in every storm. Depending on the track, speed, curvature and direction...the cone may look wider or narrower...but that is a fact of the error cone that never changes.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Here are the latest model plots graph, looks to be trending east, which makes a Fla Panhandle hit more likely.
TG
Only the BAM series and the Models have updated. The rest are from 18Z. Notice the BAM series has now changed to a northward turn. Earlier the were trending West to NNW.
There is still an awful wide margin in the 5 Day points.
From the Mouth of the MS River to the Clearwater, FL area. Roughly 7 degrees of longitude. (real rough)
RECON is airborne.
edit:7 DROPSONDES AND 6 FLIGHT LEVEL OBS WERE RECEIVED FOR THE 00Z ...
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