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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71324 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:34 AM

Quote:

i am saying a shift to the east because of its current position and track it has taken the last day now. there are still many models that take it over the western portion of cuba and from where it is at right now that almost seems impossible to do.




Three computer models currently put Ernesto over eastern Cuba... and move it paralleling the coast and then turn it NNW toward the Panhandle. The storm hasn't done anything to prevent that from playing out, yet.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71325 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:36 AM

Very important to know that the model runs are not real time,meaning they are not always current,they all run at different times.I only look at the models once a day.Again,This looks to be a large storm,So ALL off Florida needs to be ready for power outages.As Max said this is looking like a Florida event.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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hope
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71326 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:41 AM

Correct me if Im wrong but it looks like the 8am graph from the NHC moved just a tad to the North. Im I just seeing things.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71327 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:42 AM

The only good news is that if it goes over both sets of mountains in Cuba, the ones near Gitma and then in South Central Cuba...we could be looking at a minimal tropical storm. A track entirely over Cuba for 24 hours may very well rip the storm apart, i don't think we will see a major storm unless it gets into the gulf and stays there for some time...this is a crazy one, but i feeling a good bit better this morning, but not letting my guard down..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #71328 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:45 AM

All the more reason people should be aware of the Mariners 1-2-3 graphic in addition to the 5-day Cone; and keep them both in mind. This far out forecasts will shift to a certain extent based on conditions and historic patterns; and there's no telling how Cuba may or may not affect the Storm.

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Hugh]
      #71330 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:47 AM

Is there a sight where I can input coordinates and it would tell me where the coordinates are (city & etc), example: in a discussion it will say 120 hrs, gives coordinates as **N **W. This would be a handy feature for me during Ernesto as it appears Im in the bulls eye of the 120 hr coord. at 5 AM.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Southern4sure]
      #71331 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:50 AM

Does anyone have another linl to some of the models..I can't get the UKMET or CMC off the mail page...also I just noticed that the GFDL and GFS, the models that first showed the shift to the east, have shifted back west on the 06Z runs, targeting the area near appalachicola....wow...I have never seen the models swing this much in a 24 hour period..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Cindi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pcola]
      #71332 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:57 AM

I noticed the model swing, too. ONe thing I have learned by living on the Gulf Coast over the last 18 yrs, is that we are never "out of the woods" until the storm really gets close to landfall. Also, I have learned that if they predict the storm to come to my area (Panama City) early in the game, it usually doesn't. I start getting concerned when a storm is about a day out and they predict a PC landfall. That said, Panama City has not had a direct hit by a strong hurricane in many years. Every year, I wonder if we could be hit by a "big one." We are going to do last minute preps, that way we won't be stuck in long lines later in the week...

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Southern4sure]
      #71333 - Sun Aug 27 2006 08:58 AM

The models don't do well when a storm interacts with a large Island.I do not believe we will have a good idea on where he will end up until after he leaves Cuba.By Tuesday evenig we should know better.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pcola]
      #71334 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:00 AM

You never know what's going to happen Pcola. I remember Jeannie a few years ago....people in trailers in Clearwater went to sleep thinking everything was OK and then a few hours later the police were knocking on their doors telling them to evacuate as the storm kept going west. I think Haiti and Cuba may take more of the power out of this storm than most people thought. Hopefully it weakens it drastically thus keeping it from getting to a 2 or 3.

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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wacissa, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #71335 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:04 AM

Dr. Steve (Lyons, TWC) has called twice over the past hour for a course parallel to the NORTH Cuban coast, followed by a left turn, then a sharp recurvature into S.W. or West-Central Fla. Is there any basis for this reasoning? (He didn't offer any, except to point out the dry air slot between N.E. Cuba and the Bahamas.)

Edited by Marknole (Sun Aug 27 2006 09:07 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pincty]
      #71336 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:17 AM

I have seen a history of a weak tropical system hitting cuba and then reforming on the other side of Cuba coming back stronger than it was. If a CAT 3 hit Cuba it would bust it down to CAT 1. If a tropcial storm hit cuba and the center of circulation survived, it would not be any different than the diurnal fluctuations. Never, ever, depend on the islands to prevent a storm from affecting the mainland. There is not enough land mass if the other factors are in place for a strong storm. The atmosphere over Florida has been steadily getting more and more ready and we already know that the gulf is warm enough. We have seen recent history of violent underestimated storms: Ivan, Charley, Jeanne, Wilma and last but not least, Rita and Katrina. This is no time to panic, nor to minimize the possible danger. We have a few more days to prepare if we live anywhere on the Gulf Coast of the mainland. Use this anxiety and energy to go through your actual supplies, make a list of the things that you wish you had done the last time you were effected(mine was running out of coffee before the power came back on) Thanks to a neighbor who was prepared, we got coffee. I now have two Thermos bottles! If your housing is not adequate for storms, figure out where you are going to go, make reservations now if you have decided a hotel or motel. Reservations can be cancelled! If your car needs servicing now would be the time to get it done. If you take prescription medications, now is the time to ask for refills. At the 25 hours mark they will be shutting down mainframes and ATMS will be going off line. Draw water for flushing toilets in easy to carry bottles. Water can be used for many things after the threat is over. Pick up your yard furniture now and cover your swimming pool while it is sunny. You can have more swimming after the storm, with fewer pieces of debris to clean out. Toilet Paper and paper towels are excellent things to have on hand in case you can not get to the store in the first few days after the storm. I personally live in an area where if one tree goes down across the street I will not be able to leave my street until it is cleared out. If no tree goes down, I have two exits which both tend to flood in a flash flood. My car can not pass until it drains away.These are things to think about if you have just moved to Florida from a dry climate. Everyone who has been in Central Florida for one year will recognize these issues.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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byrdlh
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
Loc: Panama City, FL 30.23N 85.65W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Marknole]
      #71337 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:18 AM

Let me just say that I think this site is great. I have been reading everything here for the past year or so and it has been very helpful. Well, for the first time this year I am concerned. Being in Panama City, I guess we'll spend the day getting the rest of preps done, so we don't have to in the middle of the week. PC doesn't need a hurricane over Labor Day...puts a damper on the last big weekend of summer.

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pincty
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #71338 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:29 AM

Quote:

I have seen a history of a weak tropical system hitting cuba and then reforming on the other side of Cuba coming back stronger than it was. If a CAT 3 hit Cuba it would bust it down to CAT 1. If a tropcial storm hit cuba and the center of circulation survived, it would not be any different than the diurnal fluctuations. Never, ever, depend on the islands to prevent a storm from affecting the mainland.

I am aware of what you stated above however the present track is better for Florida as opposed to one whereby it clipped the west side of Cuba and stayed at a Cat. 2 when it entered the Gulf. Lyons stated that he thought it is actually a tropical storm right now due to being close to Haiti. If it continues at a NW direction and stays in Cuba for a while and has to go through those mountains, it may come out of Cuba as a 45 MPH storm. Of course it will get stronger after that. It's just that I would rather have a 45 MPH storm leaving Cuba rather than a Cat 2.

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ptchargal
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Marknole]
      #71339 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:32 AM

I would like to see an overlay of Charley with Ernesto's path. I've seen it with Ivan,Dennis, and Katrina but not compared to the the one that actually made the "infamous" turn that many are doubtful of.

I don't think anyone should panic but neither should we be in denial when preparation is the most inportant thing everyone can do right now.

If this were to go around central Florida, this one does not look like it will be as compact and fast moving that Charley blessfully was!


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Marknole]
      #71340 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:33 AM

Quote:

Dr. Steve (Lyons, TWC) has called twice over the past hour for a course parallel to the NORTH Cuban coast, followed by a left turn, then a sharp recurvature into S.W. or West-Central Fla. Is there any basis for this reasoning? (He didn't offer any, except to point out the dry air slot between N.E. Cuba and the Bahamas.)



Yes there is. He explained it pretty well. In his opinion he believes the dry air is what is weakening the storm right now as well as the partial land interaction. And that the upper level flow is what is pulling it more northerly right now.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: byrdlh]
      #71341 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:34 AM

Ernesto does not look healthy....the coc has been moving nnw and is very near Haiti.....the dry air north and northwest of the system is not moving, and the outflow from the storm, though impressive earlier, is being severly inhibited....it most likely is not a hurricane now....any METS want to jump in? the surprising thing to me is that the models have been very inaccurate for 6 hours out, which may explain the wild swings down the road...it just seems that they can not get a grip on this

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pcola]
      #71342 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:39 AM

Very nice summary this morning from Jeff Masters blog:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=484&tstamp=200608

--------------------
RJB


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pcola]
      #71343 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:40 AM

You are right, the models have been an absolute mess. I think I'm still in shock over the NHC track from this morning. I was just watching Ernesto on vis satellite and it doesn't look that good to me either. Pressure is at 997mb again, after an estimated 990mb.

I think the model "swings" are far from over. We may see one or two consistant ones that are the like 5am, but changes are probably going to continue.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: ElizabethH]
      #71344 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:46 AM

I pretty much know they are far from over. They've been ongoing for days now, after all. It'll be interesting to see what (if any) changes are made to the official forecast in the next advisory package, since the models appear now to be shifting back to the west a bit (big surprise!). I think the cone will probably shift, and the line a bit, but not much. Only the UKMET (still old run) and the LBAR (new run) models are east of the NHC 5am ET forecast now. Gut feeling says they should shift to Apalachicola with the 10am track, but we'll see.

Looking at the 1345z visible image, it appears that Ernesto has jumped a bit to the west, to me anyway.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:06 AM)


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