danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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12:45 PM EDT Sunday Update
Several of our resident meteorologists have chimed in with their thoughts on this early afternoon...
Rich B: at this post
HF: at this post
Clark: at this link or accessible below this main article here on the front page
More throughout the day as events warrant.
10:50 AM EDT Sunday Update
The forecast track remains much the same as earlier but further east, giving more risk to the Keys.
Again, it vital not to concentrate exactly on the point of landfall on the projection maps. Either way north or south is vulnerable to a hit. Use the cone rather than the points.
Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.
Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.
A warning also remains for southern Hati,
More to come....
Links
Where do you thiink will go? Let us know here
9:30 AM EDT Sunday Update
Hurricane , a minimal hurricane has caused a large shift in intensity and track for the National Hurricane Center overnight, model trends kept on pusing east, and now forecast the storm to cross Cuba, and then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The shortwave in the western US, may force the recurvature,putting us in Central Florida at most risk. It will be over cuba, but likely not long enough to significantly affect it
However, conditions seem to favor redevopment when it enters the Gulf. This means the entire west coast of Florida (still including the Panhandle, but mostly the peninsula) should be watching this system.
If it were to make landfall, it would be very late Wednesday through very early Friday, barring any suprises or slowdowns. Be aware that the hurricane center is forecasting a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. As the system is not over cuba yet, I would advise calm, right now, but if you haven't now would be a good time to get a few supplies if you have forgotton if you are along the west coast of Florida.
The angle of approach will likely be a very oblique one (somewhat like Hurricane was two years ago), so it's very difficult to pinpoint an absolute landflal location now. Anywhere at and directly south of the center will feel the most issues of the storm.
504 AM EDT-Sunday
NHC has upgraded Tropical Storm to a Category 1 Hurricane.
"Recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Tropical Storm have increased to 75 mph. This make a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale."
Forecaster Stewart issued the 5 AM Discussion on and is quoted with... " Now for the really bad news...the Official Forecast track has been shifted significantly to the right or East of the previous track...Especially at 96 and 120 hours..."
"All of the global and regional models now agree on recurvature over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico around 96 hours...and take Northeastward across the Central or Northern Florida Peninsula by 120 hours. The Official Track is similar to but a little West of the consensus Models."
Remember to check for updated Advisories and Bulletins from your local NWS Office and/ or the National Hurricane Center~danielw
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of
Debby
Animated Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:46 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Might be a blessing for Florida if Cuba takes a pounding. However, with outflow channels setting up shop in just about all quadrants, and being built to stay that way at this time, could turn out to be one of those rare TCs only slightly affected by a trip over a relatively narrow swath of land, and once in the GOM, bombs. I believe this is what concerns most at this time - upper levels so favorable that Cuba doesn't do the trick - and once back out into that toasty water, the potential for a -like rapid strengthening.
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Tampa_met
Unregistered
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Crap im in tampa. Is this recurvature a sure thing?
Unfortunately, doesn't issue bad forecasts~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 05:54 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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With outflow channels like that, I'm not so sure that the topography will have a huge effect on .
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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hi guys,
looks like Ernie is really going for it like many of us feared. Reckon we'll see him at Cat 2 with 100 mph winds before he reaches the southern coast of Cuba later. In fact, with multiple outflow channels and an increasingly supportive upper-level environment, as well as a well organised core, Ernie could deepen exceptionally quickly. A major threat to Haiti, Cuba, and increasingly so to Florida.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Rich, shouldn't the pressure at 700mb be lower than normal?
This is from the 08Z Vortex report.
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3052 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Agreed. It's my opinion that should the outflow channels now coming together hold, Cuba may not have any appreciable weakening effect on , at all. Of course, this depends on the ifs: If the outflow channels are not disrupted, if the trip over Cuba does not occur at a snail's pace and/or down the middle of the entire island more or less, and if the hurricane can avoid ingesting some of that dry air that is still floating around (although in far less quantities than just a week ago).
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I must be asleep still. doesn't look appreciably better organized to me on either AVN or overnight visible imagery. I'm sure it is, though.
As for the forecast track shift... Models have been shifting all over the place for the last day or so. I'm going to hold out until the next set of models are run before I start breathing a sigh of relief. 24 hours ago, the forecast was for the system to hit central Louisiana, and now it's forecast to hit near the Big Bend. Model guidance currently supports the forecast, but what will the next model runs show? Time will tell.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Dan,
now im not sure on this but would the higher than normal 700mb heights be a possible indicator of upper-level ridging / high pressure / upper-level anticyclone forming? this was indicated to develop by some models, and with upper-level conditions improving, it could be the case.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks Rich,
The anticyclone answer was what I was thinking, but I was hoping I was wrong. That might account for the outflow channels were are seeing. Nearing a worst case scenario for the Western Greater Antilles.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 271012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/09:57:30Z
B. 17 deg 15 min N
073 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 3068 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 134 deg 067 kt
G. 043 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 6 C/ 3061 m
J. 13 C/ 3055 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A OB 23
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 08:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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OMG! I'm I still dreaming - what a nightmare to wake up to  I can only hope that the storm gets significantly disrupted over Cuba. We residents along the west coast of FL now have that dreadful foreboding of watching every wobble and shift for the next 4-5 days - and planning for the worst. Another charlie situation and a forecasting nightmare for the . Ughh!
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RJB
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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There were 2 warm water eddies in the
gulf. 1 in the northern central gulf and the other to the west. If
these eddies are still active then the fuel for a major hurricane is present. I did check buoy temps and the gulf is very warm. 86-87 water temps on the west central coast of FL.
I remember reading on how and rapidily intensified due to eddies. Does anyone here have anymore info, such as to the location of these eddies if they still exist?
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Loop Current Eddies, or LCEs, last for months, not days or weeks. Yes, they are still in play, but generally along the western fringe of 's latest forecast track. However, it is important for you to know that much of the Atlantic basin right now will support intensification to Cat 5, temperature-wise, and yet, we haven't even had a hurricane until today. Thus, it is not only all about water temperature. If you want a better idea of why now predicts intensification to major hurricane with or without a trip over the LCE, to quote Dr. Lyons, "look up, way up!"
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lcbj68c
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Sarasota, FL
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Hey guys, I've read on here for some time, but now I'm going to make my first post. I've watched this thing with great interest here from Bradenton, FL and I've just had that gut feeling that the ridge was going to move off rapidly and this thing was gonna do a . Bradenton is usually relatively safe as hurricanes almost have to perfectly do one of these curvature numbers to be anything close to a direct hit. I'm a police officer here and now the rumblings of worry are begining. Looking forward to talking with you guys more often in the coming days.
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If a hurricane must come, please not on softball nights...we hate rainouts.
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Marknole
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
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Yikes Ron - Hernando Bch?
I'm surprised by the the 5 AM discussion that stated, "THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS." Three of the models show a Nature Coast (Levy/Dixie/Taylor County) landfall, but the track shows closer to your area. With the continued, and now dramatic eastwards shifts, you would expect the forecaster bias to continue to move right. (Remember Charlie; Tampa, Tampa, Tampa, then a sharp turn into Charlotte Harbor).
We're still seeing a large interaction over Cuba, and despite the impressive outflow mentioned by the met's, I can't see how it can strenghten, much less not get torn apart. Best case (yes, wishcasting), has it continuing to trend east, going over east-central Cuba, then (before it has a chance to strengthen too much), moving into the 'Glades and up the Peninsula as a Cat. 1 or less...
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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At the moment it looks like it is taking a NW jog, and the center may pass over the west end of Haiti. It could possible go up the spine of Cuba, or even possibly go north of it and then recurve for a more southerly landfall in Florida. In addition to that opinion, remember that over the last thirty years hurricane trajectories have became much more accurate, but hurricane intensity forcasts haven't improved all that much. When this storm gets into that really warm water in the southeastern Gulf, anything in intensity could happen in the time provided. My advice is to start getting anything you need early so that you will avoid the rush of people who aren't prepared, (i.e. gasoline for the generators, water, etc...) Hopefully Cuba will help rip this thing apart a little and prevent it making landfall as a major hurricane on the west coast of Florida. We'll just have to wait and see because this is a forcasting nightmare due to the dependency of the track on so many different things happening in the atmosphere. 
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Derek Sutherland
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hope
Unregistered
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The 006 has shifted back to the w/nw with landfall in the big bend area again.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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I am somewhat surprised, maybe stunned actually, at how far the official track shifted with the 5am package. That is rare for the , particularly when the models are still all over the place. In fact, the 06Z came in with a landfall in the Panama City-Apalachicola area in the central Florida panhandle. The 06Z , hot off of the presses, is very similar, accelerating the storm due north practically along 85W. Fact is, the models are still changing from run to run as they do not have a great handle on the ultimate track of this storm.
Do not be surprised if the track requires future adjustment back to the west at later time periods, not just from what the models say, but also if does stay over land longer than anticipated and is significantly affected by it. There is simply not enough confidence in the model guidance or in much of anything else right now to continue to slide the track in between the model guidance every 6 hours. People from Baton Rouge east along the entire Gulf coast still need to watch this thing!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Although there has been a major shift both in the official track and modeling...expect more of the same for the next few days. We have a ways to go yet so don't focus on every little (or big) shift this early.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 27 2006 07:36 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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before anyone gets too excited...its 4-5 days away (apon landfall)... Today is a watcher with Models..and strength and especially what he will do during the 24 hours around Cuba.....where will he cross? will he stay south? or go over it? Also how much weaker will he get and how long over Cuba? Model runs wil shift like the ...maybe the rest will tweak back some west to the Panhandle? Maybe the front wont be that strong........again...its 4-5 days out......until its less then 3 days..anyone outside of the Keys should just watch...and wait 1 more day.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I completely agree, Clark. While the has to go with the consensus reasoning to a certain point, when the consensus changes so dramatically, they don't normally jump on it like the did at 5am. They normally wait until they have a second model run to make dramatic changes to the forecast.
Also, while it may be insignificant, what was the intensity for the model run initializations? If it was 60mph like was late last night, that could reduce the validity of this run. Five days out, it's still impossible to say with any degree of certainty where will ultimately impact, I believe.
Just looked at the 2am run... it takes due north across extreme eastern Cuba, then curves the storm back to the NW into the Gulf, and then NNW toward the Panhandle, with landfall potential near Panama City now.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 07:46 AM)
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
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I saw that NW jog also. We've been lucky in Pinellas Cty. for years. Hope our luck doesn't run out.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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This is a perfect example of why we always need to watch these things so closely.If he goes over the east side of Cuba the weakening will be less,Because the mountains are on the west side of Cuba.What we do not want to see is a stall after Cuba,The waters there are very warm and he COULD get much stronger very quickly.If you live in Florida,now is the time to prepare,because this looks to be a large storm.Remember wierd things happen when a hurricane interacts with land(as far as the track).South Florida is now the main concern,both the east and west coasts.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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there is still plenty of time if the track stays west of florida then curves back where the says landfall could be thursday afternoonish. if the track shifts further east south florida will start feeling the storm late tuesday. so in south florida there is only about 2.5 days to prepare if this will have more of an impact on that area. people in south florida should make sure they have what they need today because tomorrow could be a zoo if its going to have a more direct impact on south florida.
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hope
Unregistered
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Did I see thing wrong or did it go from 990mb to 995 in the last hour. Hay, every little bit helps.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
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Solutions on where will go will continue to change- it is important to know that it is too early to know what impact this thing will have for anyone in the gulf region or for southern Florida. Regardless of - we should always have an action plan and be prepared as if it would directly impact us. Preparation is key during hurricane season.
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________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Haiti is starting to have some effect on 's structure, as can be seen here. Looks like a lot of the convection surrounding the LLC is getting hung up on some of those peaks. Still, the LLC is crossing the narrow westernmost portion of the island, and once finished, may start deepening at a faster clip, once more.
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flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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It seems each model run is taking it progressively eastward. Will this trend continue, thus resulting in more of a hit on the Keys/Southern Florida, or is there any meteorological situation set up that would keep it on its wnw track for the forseeable future
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Ernestro is impacting on Hispaniola...and will continue todo so today and with Cuba over the next day or 2....He wont get any stronger due to land interaction......if anything he should be a TS...pressure of 997 is a rise of 8 mb in only a couple hours since it was 989mb...Winds now support 60mph...fl winds now near 63kt.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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intermediate advisory is out... now considered to be moving NW instead of NW, and it says a general NW or WNW track is expected for the next 24 hours as Hurricane crosses the coast of Haiti and approaches the eastern tip of Cuba.
Is it just me or is SSD's visible floater page broken? The loop won't load for me at all (AVN loop does load, though).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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just saw max on the today show..."this is looking like a florida landfall".... some "models even take it into the panhandle, and to south florida".... 8pm has pressure back at 997mb....
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Excellent point, Clark. People in the "cone of error" need to keep an eye
on . Everyone needs to have supplies and plan ready but the track could shift west or east. is still a few days away
from a Gulf Coast landfall.
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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unless this jumps to the west a bit more i would have to think that the track might even shift again at 11. im not sure how much of a possibility this is, but if it moved more north than west it may stay just east of florida. i know that is not a scenario at the moment. just have to wait and see.
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hope
Unregistered
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Im going to stick to the . It has been nailing this storm the past couple of days calling for a NW track that many of the others did not.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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I also believe that the track will shift more to the east at 11.There is a good chance he will be downgraded to TS status while over Cuba.The big question is what happens after Cuba.It WAS a nice "vacation" for a while,But now we are back to business.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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The storm is going to have some hiccups as far as short term track is concerned. But in general I think the has the right pattern. Even so, it is impossible to tell where in FL this thing will go. Take the west coast, from Key west to the big bend area is almost a 300 mile stretch of coastline, make sure you have everything in order and just watch the track closely, not a whole lot more you can do but wait and see what happens.
Hurricane (Port Charlotte '04)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Based upon current computer computer runs (at least the models I've looked at), there would be absolutely no justification in shifting the track further east. The forecast puts the hurricane into the big bend area, and the model consensus does too. No need to shift the track further east than ANY of the models put it.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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I remember when they had going into Tampa and he hit the AL/FL border. This has been the CRAZIEST forecast shifting I think I have ever seen from the .
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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
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i am saying a shift to the east because of its current position and track it has taken the last day now. there are still many models that take it over the western portion of cuba and from where it is at right now that almost seems impossible to do.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
i am saying a shift to the east because of its current position and track it has taken the last day now. there are still many models that take it over the western portion of cuba and from where it is at right now that almost seems impossible to do.
Three computer models currently put over eastern Cuba... and move it paralleling the coast and then turn it NNW toward the Panhandle. The storm hasn't done anything to prevent that from playing out, yet.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Very important to know that the model runs are not real time,meaning they are not always current,they all run at different times.I only look at the models once a day.Again,This looks to be a large storm,So ALL off Florida needs to be ready for power outages.As Max said this is looking like a Florida event.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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hope
Unregistered
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Correct me if Im wrong but it looks like the 8am graph from the moved just a tad to the North. Im I just seeing things.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The only good news is that if it goes over both sets of mountains in Cuba, the ones near Gitma and then in South Central Cuba...we could be looking at a minimal tropical storm. A track entirely over Cuba for 24 hours may very well rip the storm apart, i don't think we will see a major storm unless it gets into the gulf and stays there for some time...this is a crazy one, but i feeling a good bit better this morning, but not letting my guard down..
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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All the more reason people should be aware of the Mariners 1-2-3 graphic in addition to the 5-day Cone; and keep them both in mind. This far out forecasts will shift to a certain extent based on conditions and historic patterns; and there's no telling how Cuba may or may not affect the Storm.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 110
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
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Is there a sight where I can input coordinates and it would tell me where the coordinates are (city & etc), example: in a discussion it will say 120 hrs, gives coordinates as **N **W. This would be a handy feature for me during as it appears Im in the bulls eye of the 120 hr coord. at 5 AM.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Does anyone have another linl to some of the models..I can't get the UKMET or off the mail page...also I just noticed that the and , the models that first showed the shift to the east, have shifted back west on the 06Z runs, targeting the area near appalachicola....wow...I have never seen the models swing this much in a 24 hour period..
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Cindi
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Panama City, FL
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I noticed the model swing, too. ONe thing I have learned by living on the Gulf Coast over the last 18 yrs, is that we are never "out of the woods" until the storm really gets close to landfall. Also, I have learned that if they predict the storm to come to my area (Panama City) early in the game, it usually doesn't. I start getting concerned when a storm is about a day out and they predict a PC landfall. That said, Panama City has not had a direct hit by a strong hurricane in many years. Every year, I wonder if we could be hit by a "big one." We are going to do last minute preps, that way we won't be stuck in long lines later in the week...
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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The models don't do well when a storm interacts with a large Island.I do not believe we will have a good idea on where he will end up until after he leaves Cuba.By Tuesday evenig we should know better.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
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You never know what's going to happen Pcola. I remember Jeannie a few years ago....people in trailers in Clearwater went to sleep thinking everything was OK and then a few hours later the police were knocking on their doors telling them to evacuate as the storm kept going west. I think Haiti and Cuba may take more of the power out of this storm than most people thought. Hopefully it weakens it drastically thus keeping it from getting to a 2 or 3.
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Marknole
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
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Dr. Steve (Lyons, ) has called twice over the past hour for a course parallel to the NORTH Cuban coast, followed by a left turn, then a sharp recurvature into S.W. or West-Central Fla. Is there any basis for this reasoning? (He didn't offer any, except to point out the dry air slot between N.E. Cuba and the Bahamas.)
Edited by Marknole (Sun Aug 27 2006 09:07 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have seen a history of a weak tropical system hitting cuba and then reforming on the other side of Cuba coming back stronger than it was. If a CAT 3 hit Cuba it would bust it down to CAT 1. If a tropcial storm hit cuba and the center of circulation survived, it would not be any different than the diurnal fluctuations. Never, ever, depend on the islands to prevent a storm from affecting the mainland. There is not enough land mass if the other factors are in place for a strong storm. The atmosphere over Florida has been steadily getting more and more ready and we already know that the gulf is warm enough. We have seen recent history of violent underestimated storms: , , Jeanne, and last but not least, and . This is no time to panic, nor to minimize the possible danger. We have a few more days to prepare if we live anywhere on the Gulf Coast of the mainland. Use this anxiety and energy to go through your actual supplies, make a list of the things that you wish you had done the last time you were effected(mine was running out of coffee before the power came back on) Thanks to a neighbor who was prepared, we got coffee. I now have two Thermos bottles! If your housing is not adequate for storms, figure out where you are going to go, make reservations now if you have decided a hotel or motel. Reservations can be cancelled! If your car needs servicing now would be the time to get it done. If you take prescription medications, now is the time to ask for refills. At the 25 hours mark they will be shutting down mainframes and ATMS will be going off line. Draw water for flushing toilets in easy to carry bottles. Water can be used for many things after the threat is over. Pick up your yard furniture now and cover your swimming pool while it is sunny. You can have more swimming after the storm, with fewer pieces of debris to clean out. Toilet Paper and paper towels are excellent things to have on hand in case you can not get to the store in the first few days after the storm. I personally live in an area where if one tree goes down across the street I will not be able to leave my street until it is cleared out. If no tree goes down, I have two exits which both tend to flood in a flash flood. My car can not pass until it drains away.These are things to think about if you have just moved to Florida from a dry climate. Everyone who has been in Central Florida for one year will recognize these issues.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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byrdlh
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 7
Loc: Panama City, FL 30.23N 85.65W
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Let me just say that I think this site is great. I have been reading everything here for the past year or so and it has been very helpful. Well, for the first time this year I am concerned. Being in Panama City, I guess we'll spend the day getting the rest of preps done, so we don't have to in the middle of the week. PC doesn't need a hurricane over Labor Day...puts a damper on the last big weekend of summer.
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pincty
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 28
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Quote:
I have seen a history of a weak tropical system hitting cuba and then reforming on the other side of Cuba coming back stronger than it was. If a CAT 3 hit Cuba it would bust it down to CAT 1. If a tropcial storm hit cuba and the center of circulation survived, it would not be any different than the diurnal fluctuations. Never, ever, depend on the islands to prevent a storm from affecting the mainland.
I am aware of what you stated above however the present track is better for Florida as opposed to one whereby it clipped the west side of Cuba and stayed at a Cat. 2 when it entered the Gulf. Lyons stated that he thought it is actually a tropical storm right now due to being close to Haiti. If it continues at a NW direction and stays in Cuba for a while and has to go through those mountains, it may come out of Cuba as a 45 MPH storm. Of course it will get stronger after that. It's just that I would rather have a 45 MPH storm leaving Cuba rather than a Cat 2.
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ptchargal
Unregistered
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I would like to see an overlay of with 's path. I've seen it with ,Dennis, and but not compared to the the one that actually made the "infamous" turn that many are doubtful of.
I don't think anyone should panic but neither should we be in denial when preparation is the most inportant thing everyone can do right now.
If this were to go around central Florida, this one does not look like it will be as compact and fast moving that blessfully was!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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Quote:
Dr. Steve (Lyons, ) has called twice over the past hour for a course parallel to the NORTH Cuban coast, followed by a left turn, then a sharp recurvature into S.W. or West-Central Fla. Is there any basis for this reasoning? (He didn't offer any, except to point out the dry air slot between N.E. Cuba and the Bahamas.)
Yes there is. He explained it pretty well. In his opinion he believes the dry air is what is weakening the storm right now as well as the partial land interaction. And that the upper level flow is what is pulling it more northerly right now.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Ernesto does not look healthy....the coc has been moving nnw and is very near Haiti.....the dry air north and northwest of the system is not moving, and the outflow from the storm, though impressive earlier, is being severly inhibited....it most likely is not a hurricane now....any METS want to jump in? the surprising thing to me is that the models have been very inaccurate for 6 hours out, which may explain the wild swings down the road...it just seems that they can not get a grip on this
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Very nice summary this morning from Jeff Masters blog:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=484&tstamp=200608
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RJB
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ElizabethH
Meteorologist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
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You are right, the models have been an absolute mess. I think I'm still in shock over the track from this morning. I was just watching on vis satellite and it doesn't look that good to me either. Pressure is at 997mb again, after an estimated 990mb.
I think the model "swings" are far from over. We may see one or two consistant ones that are the like 5am, but changes are probably going to continue.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I pretty much know they are far from over. They've been ongoing for days now, after all. It'll be interesting to see what (if any) changes are made to the official forecast in the next advisory package, since the models appear now to be shifting back to the west a bit (big surprise!). I think the cone will probably shift, and the line a bit, but not much. Only the UKMET (still old run) and the LBAR (new run) models are east of the 5am ET forecast now. Gut feeling says they should shift to Apalachicola with the 10am track, but we'll see.
Looking at the 1345z visible image, it appears that has jumped a bit to the west, to me anyway.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:06 AM)
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dkblostnottinghamsmoney
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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Is it just me or does Ernie have to make almost a left turn to follow the 's projectd track??? The Dr. Steve Lyons is going to be right.
Nottingham where are you :?:
Edited by dkblostnottinghamsmoney (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:06 AM)
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Alabama
Unregistered
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I doubt they will shift it to much it at 11. May wait until the 12Z run before any shifting occurs.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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Hugh, this is exactly what I was talking about last night.
It appeared to me from both the WV and IR imagery that the storm would likely brush the very edge of Hispanola. That was a major departure from the original forecast track. In terms of miles, its not really big, but in terms of degrees of error 5-6 days out, its enormous!
Yesterday I "bought" the jet-induced ridge fracture, and its presence (and continued heatlh) was IMHO what put the LA/TX border (and a bit west to perhaps Galveston or even Corpus) to the panhandle under the gun. With the ridging eroding and a quite-heavy dig of the jet, you're going to get a recurve.
And now here we are with the scenario setting itself up. The model guidance on the SWWMD (http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif) site is all clustered between the mid-keys (e.g. Marathon) and Appalachicola, with the left outlier being the AVNO.
The smart thing to do is the prog the center of the line right up where the center of the cone is, which is just north of Tampa. Yes, that's going to freak out plenty of people, and it either is or should, but the really bad news is that a shift just a tad east puts Key West in the maw of a really ugly situation Wednesday early morning - three days from now! As it stands the warning window for people living there is perilously tight now given what has to happen if it comes their way. The trend has been solidly eastward on the models for the last two days, and now they're starting to cluster up a bit.
On the WV you can see the trough pressing east. It does indeed look like its coming, driven by the jet, and in the last six hours or so is starting to accelerate a bit eastward, while actually digging a bit more. That's what the models are looking at.
The ULL is nearing the Belize border, and is off the table. Outflow channels look to be establishing themselves as was noted, and the ULL is going to provide nice ventilation for at least the next day, and perhaps furhter on.
I think the track shift is solid; it may come back west SOME, and I wouldn't call the western panhandle (which is where I am!) out of the woods by any means, but it is looking increasingly likely to be a west florida peninsula or big bend event, and quite possibly a really big one, given the gulf water temperatures.
Up near us, down to 50-60' water temps are well north of 80F. The thermocline a week ago while diving about 20nm offshore didn't show up until around 60-70', and even then, it was only 3 degrees or so. That's unusually deep around here and indicative of a lot of available heat.
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Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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The most important information I took from Masters' blog was :
"The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight, so we'll have our first set of higher-reliability model runs Monday morning. The NOAA P-3 gets its first action Monday morning, and will fly their SFMR instrument that measures surface winds over the entire area."
We've seen over the past two seasons how imperative it is to have as much atmospheric data as possible. I think that once this information gets collected the track will become a bit more concrete.
For plotting lat/long I've installed Google Earth.
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Check the Surf
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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I'm sticking with my prediction from last night (as posted on the other thread): moves over Cuba weakens to a TS or minimal Cat 1 then pops out on the other side of Cuba in a different location due land interaction making the true center hard to find. From there it gains strenght to Cat 2/3 (maybe higher if it slows) before making a quick NE turn ala .
The big quesiton is WHEN and WHERE does this turn occur, right now the / models say somewhere north of Tampa. However an early turn makes this a like event (been there done that, no thanks) or does it get further north up the coast similar to . Once again I'm most worried about the "jump" over Cuba, over land I doubt we'll see an eye thus the storm might get "lost", at that point in time we'll just be tracking a blob of heavy rain, once this mess regroups it could be very close to S FL. By then there will not be alot of warning time (6-10 hours?) before landfall. Note the large cone of error during the Tuesday PM time frame - this will be the critial time/location at which all preprations in S FL must be completed.
Similar to - a storm tracking N along the west coast of FL is very hard to predict when it comes to exact landfall, it could to the west of the cone for days or it could move only a few degrees E and come ashore within hours. I don't want to scare people... just keep in mind the two main players here that will effect it's track (and thus landfall): 1) location of true after crossing Cuba and 2) when the NE turn begins.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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I keep hearing reference to Charlie. If you would like to see the animated forecast track of Charlie, click the following link. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY_graphics.shtml This shows the forecast and adjustments. As you can see it was kinda back and forth for a while.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I would be surprised to see anything other than a minor change in official forecast path at 11:00. After such a radical switch earlier, they are going to want to maintain some consistency. Plus, if they think there is a chance at Tampa, at this point, I think it might be wise to keep the official forecast nearby. With such a small and compact system, it is going to be interesting to see what happens with land interaction down the road.
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Jim
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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On the west coast VERY small errors in track result in HUGE landfall changes as a consequence of the impact angle being so oblique.
This is what happened with Charlie, and its extremely dangerous because you can go from being on the "clean" side of a storm with relatively light effects to being nailed with the eyewall with very little notice.
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 58
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.62N 80.35W
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Right now the question for us in florida will be the impact of Cuba on Earnesto. The models certainly seem to indicate that it will not spend enough time over Cuba for a major impact. Also, after Cuba the storm will likely re-intensify with the warm SSTs in the GOM.
GFDL this morning indicate the storm will hug the west cost and cross the state well north of tampa though other model runs are pointing to a close to tampa event, exiting around Jax.
In any event, this will most likely be a major hurricane at Cat3 and i'll echo the warnings....pay attention, be careful, evacuate early and most of all...BE SAFE!
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 450
Loc: DeLand Florida
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Referencing not ’s track, but more rather that particular storm’s size, is a rather small storm…with a big swath of landfall real-estate.
The next two days are going to be critical; as was mentioned earlier, this presents a pickle for high risk evaq zones such as the keys.
Question: would history show such storms susceptible to explosive deepening? And what of changes to internal structure? The formative and reorganization stages are always the most delicate, and a center 'jump' such as we saw yesterday would really shake things up a bit after the initial landfall.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:26 AM)
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dredlox
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
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Wow, great site. I just found it. I have been doing ad hoc cane tracking and forecasting since AC; After . What a rude awakening that was. Looks like lots of knowledgable people and intelligent discussion. Just what I was looking for.
Maybe it is wishful thinking being in tampa, but the track has consistently shifted right as the models have gotten more data on the projected shortwave. I think you'll see another small shift to the west on this at 11 shortly, and more later today.
It's definitely popping FL somewhere on the peninsula, and i cant imagine lower than cat 3. Hopefully it doesnt have time to build up one of those monster wind fields.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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11 am still has it as a hurricane at 75 mph..but a speed of only 9mph.....with recon still 3 hours out..probably not much change..discussion not up yet
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Looks like the 11 AM track remains basically as it did before.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Apologies for the false positive of the Cyclone Special update on the front page, working on the problem now.
Feel free to post interesting links regarding , I'm in the process of gathering some now for the main page.
This week is going to be busy, folks along the west coast need to watch this storm.
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Looks like the 11 AM track remains basically as it did before.
First post this season. The 11 AM track had a significant shift east. Compare the two!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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It would have to make a right-hand turn..ala, the NE curvature the models are predicting. A left hand turn would take it to TX or LA.
You can see in the WV loops what is going to cause that Northeastern turn.
I'm not all that sure that I would count on staying a small storm. He has a lot of water to work with after he gets away from Hispaniola and depending on how long he spends over Cuba and where will be key in where he ends up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: Cape Haze Peninsula, SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
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Quote:
Referencing not ’s track, but more rather that particular storm’s size, is a rather small storm…with a big swath of landfall real-estate.
A smaller storm makes it even MORE vulnerable to "do a " and get sucked up into Charlotte Harbor.
I woke up this morning with a horrible feeling of deja vu about all of this. Already gassed up both cars, the genny, and my extra cans. Have water, food, et. al.
We'll have to wait until it crosses Cuba to know for sure where it's going to go -- the further west it gets before it's northern jog, the better for SWFL and the worse it is for Tampa and points north.
But the bottom line is, if you're in FL, you need to be at a gas station this am getting filled up -- there's already lines in our neck of the woods. (Charlotte county)
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Lesli in SWFL.
(my 2009 guess - 14/7/5)
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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hope
Unregistered
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The stated that the 11am was put a bit to the eat to be closer to the majority of the 06Z runs. However, most of the runs I have seen are shifting back to the Wast a bit.
[image]http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=05[/image]
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Yes, the 11am track does not have Ernest making such a sharp right-hand turn...it looks like the Keys would be impacted more and it also looks Tampa Bay would basically have the center in it; however, it looks as though it would exit around the same area--Jax. These will shift back and forth over the next day or so -- and everyone in the cone (or near it) needs to keep a sharp eye on it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I am looking at this site for model runs; if anything, it appears to me that the models are more in line at 1200 UTC then 0600UTC.
1200 UTC Model Plots
Maybe I'm incorrect, I don't know. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong....
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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We are already making some storm preps. Most here in Tampa won't wake up until 24 hours before the event, if history is correct. That will be just in time to thoroughly pack the highways. seems to be developing pretty good outflow channels and muscling up. I won't be on here much today, but will check back from time to time. We have a lot to do early on.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
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Anyone on the west coast of Florida needs to take today, since its a weekend, and get your hurricane kit together. Get your vehicle(s) fueled, if you have a generator and intend to stay get the fuel for the genny, get your food stocks in order, batteries for lights and radios, etc.
Yes, anyone on the west coast - and if you're in the Keys, you need to be prepared to bug out if an evac is ordered, meaning get all your vital papers and such together and be ready to go.
On the present track Key West is right in the maw of it. That right shift on the 11 AM is NOT good for the Keys at all, as it puts Key West right in the Eyewall. Now of course this far out if the black line is on you odds are good it won't be when the storm gets there, BUT it pays to be prepared.
The only good news out of the 11 AM is that the storm looks to spend 24 hours over Cuba. That is likely to take quite a bit of wind out of his sails, and we can all hope for THAT! But - a SMALL displacement over water would cut his total over-land time to half that (for the COC) which, while it would shift the track somewhat west, would also mean he'd be a much meaner PITA when he emerges into the gulf.
I was a bit surprised to see the track nudge by the on the 11AM; it'll likely move back and forth some over the next 24 hours, and exactly how much of Cuba it hits, and at what angle, will have a big impact on what the strength is coming into the gulf.
In any event I see nothing that would prevent an explosive deepening (assuming the COC holds together going over cuba, and I expect it to) once it emerges. The water there is extremely warm and its not just the surface layer - there's a lot of oceanic heat content, and shear is forecast to be basically non-existant. That, plus established outflow channels is not a good recipe.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I'd go gas up now. In the time it took me to trade one vehicle for the next, the line tripled. Fortunately I noticed our gas prices are 8 cents below normal today, I expect they will jump as sharply as the lines.
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When it rains, it pours...
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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This is a part of the AFD out of the Mobile office. Although it was done at 4am this morning there is a good point made...
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LOOKS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THROUGH
THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THE EVOLVING FLOW
PATTERN ACTS TO LIFT MORE POLEWARD AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF...EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASED SWELL...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AS OF 09 UTC/4 AM
CENTRAL THIS MORNING WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WE STILL NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ERROR IN THE EXTENDED RANGES OF
HURRICANE FORECASTS CAN BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE DAY
4 AND 5 POINTS. FOR SPECIFIC TRACK FORECASTS AND HURRICANE MODEL
DISCUSSIONS REFER TO THE National Hurricane Center WEB SITE:
www.NHC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.SHTML /10
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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And they upgraded to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
And they upgraded to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with sustained (1minute) winds of 74mph or greater. The recon flight this morning found winds that strong, whereas they didn't find winds of 39mph or greater when they didn't upgrade it from a T.D. to .
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If the track continues to move to the right, it will start to look Donna-ish(1960) HOpefully will drop in a while off the coast of Cuba smoke a few Cuban cigars and say Howdy to Castro and his brothers. Then mosy on through the mountainous part of Cuba. Until we see that final trek over Cuba and its results, we will have an eye catching storm to watch. I am finishing up the yard work and the last minute shopping today. Our work place will not let us out until the daycare and public schools are shut down. By then there will be nothing available that you really need and the shop keepers will be raking in on the Frenzy.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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There's a lot to be said for trend forecasting, and if you take the forecast trend for , and the significant adjustments in the atmosphere and forecast models -- strength of UL trof and retreat of subtropical ridge -- there's every reason to think the center COULD miss Florida altogether. It's happened plenty of times previously. Watch today and see if it stays to the east of the current forecast track. No doubt, we'll be looking at a significantly different forecast tomorrow morning, just like has been happening every day for the past three days.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Thanks for the info -- from what I've seen, the max wind early this morning was 69kt, but aloft, which extrapolated to the surface would be a little closer to 60kt. I think I'm just splitting hairs here. My point is that sometimes you don't have air recon avaiilable, but you've got plenty of satellite and radar evidence to substantiate intensity changes (i.e. depression vs TS or TS vs hurricane).
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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In order for to miss Florida, the storm would have to turn NNW almost immediately, and due north tomorrow. I won't say it's impossible, but it's very unlikely.
As for the intensity, that's true... but in this case, the recon is what they based the upgrade to hurricane on.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:07 PM)
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NEWS PHOTOG
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Tampa, Florida
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Not seeing any lines at the gas stations here near Tampa yet. My wife is out getting the few things we need for our kit, such as fresh water. As others have mentioned, we should all be prepared with a hurricane kit early in the season., not putting one together at the last minute. It's almost time to make a decision as to staying or leaving the area, so as not to get caught up in last minute traffic, or not being able to reserve a room somewhere.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
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Quote:
And they upgraded to a hurricane, why? They waited such a long time to make it a TS. Now, it doesn't look much stronger than yesterday -- I inferred as much from their discussion. This just doesn't make any sense.
Ernesto underwent a period of rapid intensification during the early morning hours and generated a small core of hurricane force winds, outside of which the winds are very light. It may not appear very impressive on satellite imagery, but a close-up look reveals a small, but well organized minimal hurricane with the potential to reach Cat 2 strength before reaching Cuba. The center of the storm is currently located just south of Port-Salut on the southern peninsula of Haiti. Sadly, it appears that southern Haiti will experience disastrous flooding and mudslides as the circulation interacts with deforested mountains over 7000 ft. in elevation.
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Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Am I correct that recon is still about 2 hours out? is a strange storm..2 hours ago it looked like the coc was going to go over the tip of Haiti...but it now looks on both Vis and Infrared that the center has either stalled or is moving very slowley on a due west coarse...I know they wobble but it is interesting to see the shift in convection..also, any Mets, if this storm stalls, could it possibly miss the trough later in the week, and meander around the southern gulf? Especially if it stays south of Cuba?
PS...Its amazing th epower of the media..the paper this morning here in Pcola had last nights track which was right at us, and I went to Lowes this morning to get supplies for a bar b que and the crowds were ridiculous..grabbing gas cans..etc......I guess everyone up here will be well prepared for anything later on.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:21 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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I must be hallucinating. For the last two hours, it appears that has moved almost due west, or may just slightly north of due west. I saw this first on 's site, and then on SSD, and now I see it on weather.com, too. It might be an illusion, but the has remained south of the coast of Haiti, and if this motion continues, the impact on the circulation won't be significant (from interaction with 7000 ft mountains in Haiti, that is). Also seems to still be a great deal of southwesterly shear, looking at the cloud tops zooming off to the northest of .
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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Quote:
I must be hallucinating. For the last two hours, it appears that has moved almost due west, or may just slightly north of due west. I saw this first on 's site, and then on SSD, and now I see it on weather.com, too. It might be an illusion, but the has remained south of the coast of Haiti, and if this motion continues, the impact on the circulation won't be significant (from interaction with 7000 ft mountains in Haiti, that is).
I have noticed this as well. At first I thought it was an illusion but it has seemed to persist. Any thoughts from one of the mets?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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I have noticed this as well. At first I thought it was an illusion but it has seemed to persist. Any thoughts from one of the mets?
I'm not a met, but I've seen things like this before, and Jamaica comes to mind, it shifted west a bit suddenly in a rather large wobble. If it is shifting a bit west, and I'm not totally positive of it. (You can drive yourself crazy trying to follow it that close) then it'll shift the track a bit west. I think we're at the end of the right movement trends for the models, and it may shift a bit more westward if this verifies. I'll watch for Recon reports here when they start coming.
It's always important to remember though that the storm is near Hati, has not crossed cuba yet, and speculation is running rampant (I'm guilty of it too). They may put the watches up for the keys later today because they need the time to prepare moreso than other places along the mainland.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Ernesto looks to have a small core, but a large circulation... especially to the east. If this is the case then land interaction could disrupt the core, but the large circulation would allow the system to hold on, or spit out a new circulation. this could well be the case when Ernie reaches Cuba. however, with the pressure increase this morning, Ernie may be trying to spawn a new LLCc somewhere under the convective shield, allowing the old one to weaken. recon will tell us more.
Also, while interest is on the US, lets not forgot theres alot of people between Ernie now and Florida. And with poor infrastructure, high winds, and 20" rain, this is a real danger to many.
Kind regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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dredlox
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
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This is probably very obvious to most, but here's an evacuation tip, if you have to do it.
Take a nap that day, and wait until like 2am-3am to drive. I did that during Charlie, and I hit minimal traffic to Kissimmee from Tampa, despite huge lines in the day.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 963
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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Looking at the 85GHz pass, it looks like the central convection has wrapped 75% of the way around the core and banding to the south is clearly evident. I see on the gulf IR loop that there is a bloom of convection just west of the COC that is overspanning the COC. It seems to me that the storm is undergoing the normal reorganization required for the shift from an un-banned TS to a banded hurricane, pushing covenction away from the vortex and wrapping that convection around the core.
Pertaining to the relatively lower (997mb) reading for a hurricane in the last recon, it also noted that the eye was open south, which would explain the low rating.
I'm interested to see how this storm impacts with land. It looks quite healthy right now and appears to be barely moving. Next recon should be in in a couple hours, if my timing is correct.
--RC
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Haiti is definitely bearing the brunt of this system, once again. The SE coast has already received upwards of 4 inches of rain and could receive another 8 inches over the next 24 hrs. Yes, sadly, more flash flooding across the deforested landscape.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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completely different situation than yesterday. for most of yesterday florida wasn't even in the 'cone' everybody always worries over... today it's the most prominent feature there behind perhaps cuba. this is one of those situations where subtleties of the track and the character of the storm make the intensity forecasts close to useless. we're going into a /charley type situation here... something with elements of both, but with some potential key differences.
ernesto appears to be a very small-core system. these can spin up and down very rapidly. is in a very similar position to where was last year.. and spun up to a very strong category 4 as it grazed into southern cuba. doesn't have nearly the organization or quite the upper environment had, so while it may finally deepen (hasn't really since yesterday... 997mb is usually associated with a tropical storm) some before making landfall tomorrow morning, it probably won't be a major hurricane going in. it also looks to take a longer, more tortuous track over cuba than did.. and after that the similarities with may end. did spin rapidly back up to a category 4 after leaving cuba, though.. as a note.
the similarities with are that a trough will be stationed northwest of and recurve the storm... maybe over the peninsula of florida, maybe into north florida... maybe even across southeast florida. the storm will likely be a mid-range tropical storm leaving cuba with a disrupted core. a few hours over the florida straits may or may not allow it to reorganize, so if it goes right into south florida, don't expect much of a storm. if it tracks a bit further west, say into or west of the keys, and isn't hugging the sw florida coast.. it will be doing something like what did, and may be able to spin up substantially. a much weakened storm over cuba may actually be worse than a slightly weakened one, because the tendency to get further out in the gulf will be greater if the storm is weaker. just subtle factors in track here can make the difference between a tropical storm for florida, or a major hurricane. it is worth noting that the threat of a massive, large windfield hurricane that can smash hundreds of miles of coastal structures with surge is probably out of the question. the threat for a strong hurricane would be one with a tight, intense wind core that could inflict substantial structural damage close to the landfall point, and maybe a ways inland from there.
something else a tad interesting is the threat of the storm slowing down, if the ridging doesn't decay as much as shown or the trough doesn't dig as much. the storm could potentially slow to a drift over the gulf in such scenario... not strongly represented by any model, but theoretically possible. it could also move very slowly over florida and cause flooding in places.
the threat for a big hurricane hit on florida is fairly limited to the west central coast up to the big bend area. the panhandle, where i was thinking the other day... isn't totally out of the woods and if the storm were to come up there could be facing a mature and dangerous hurricane.. but right now it doesn't look like there will be enough ridging to take it there. places like georgia and the carolinas... the northeast part of florida... would maybe experience tropical storm conditions along the coastline... maybe a little stronger further up in the carolinas right near the coast if it were to move a little offshore and reintensify. lots of rain whether it does that or tracks inland... either way.
elsewhere.. debby has just about signed off for 2006... the wave/low combo near 17/33 is well-defined with weak convection, but in a region of subsidence and marginal water that should prevent any development for another day or two. mild model support for it, and it already has plenty of latitude which should promote an early recurvature for anything that might form. eastpac looking to punch out another storm, so the atlantic may very well continue active in the coming week or two.
HF 1637z27august
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:43 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Ernesto does seem to have taken more of a jog to the west recently, even dating back to the last recon fix a few hours ago, which showed much more of a westward motion from the previous fix before that. It'll be interesting to see what the next recon fix will show. The plane is getting close now, so we should have something in about an hour or so. Since the storm may still be undergoing inner core changes, some wobbling should be expected.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Agreed, some wobbling is going to happen, particularly with the COC so close to land... but if it becomes a more definitive track (in other words, if doesn't gain some latitude in the next couple of hours), it could have a more significant impact on the track across Cuba.
Looking at thr 1615 IR image... has almost certainly made landfall on the south coast of Haiti. The cloud tops have cooled significantly. We'll know for sure if we get a recon fix (can the recon fly into Haiti's airspace to get a vortex?)... and how the land is impacting the system, but it would surprise me not to see a downgrade at 2pm if the satellite presentation is any indication.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:51 PM)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Quote:
Looking at the 85GHz pass, it looks like the central convection has wrapped 75% of the way around the core ... It seems to me that the storm is undergoing the normal reorganization required for the shift from an un-banned TS to a banded hurricane, pushing covenction away from the vortex and wrapping that convection around the core.
I was just looking at the same thing -- the SSMI data suggests that is on the verge of becoming a real hurricane. (I believe the 997mb pressure was identical to the previous recon yesterday evening).
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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New thread started ...
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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chaser1
Unregistered
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Hi folks.... Is not only enjoyable to access quick updates via this forum, but also the array of input. I have chased hurricanes going back to Danny in 'Lousiana ( may give away age ), and have seen a lot over the years. Even still, the complexities and nuances of each Hurricane Season and each storm make this science as fascinating as it is. I would say that given the overall envelope size, small core structure, and potential land interaction, may be quite the canditate for being a "jumper". Given the more mountainous E. Cuba topo., as well as potentially ideal upper anticyclonic outflow, I can see a fairly quick degeneration of 's surface circulation, of course less evident at 850mb. Assuming that a full 24 hours or longer is spent over Cuba, the risk is significantly reduced to the extreme S. Florida area and Keys. However, if were to be moving at a trajectory of perhaps 310 degrees or greater at the time, than it would not surprise me if significant bursting north of the Cuban coast and south and east of Andros Island, may have a center relocation form under that . Such an event would seem in character with this systems poleward wobbles. Such a relocation would of course appear as a northward jog, but then re-establish a more NW motion. Of course, with each hour of slower forward motion ( and slight deepening ), the ULL in the W. Carib. continues to move away, thus one less player helping to nudge more NW'ward. That being said, just one "wrinkle" to watch for. In such an event, and thus given more time over the Florida Straights, with potentially ideal upper air, those in S. Fla might not face a "major" hurricane, but a significant and deepening system nonetheless.
One sidenote, I beleive we are truly seeing a track pattern which would tends to make me think that this will not be the last storm this year to threaten Cuba and S. Florida this year.
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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No lines here at the gas stations in St Pete either but just left Lowe's, finally bought a generator after putting it off for 10+ years. Lowe's was already packed and I can honestly say the people were not there buying plants. While I was getting my generator I saw 4 others being purchased also. I am not in a panic and am not worried as long as Tampa Bay is the bullseye as we all know the storm never hits right on the mark.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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 Ernesto will cross Cuba loosing some strength, but then regain that strength, and more entering the Gulf. I think Hurricane will become a cat. 3 or 4 and make landfall just north of Clearwater, St.Petersburg, and Tampa area. Landfall i believe will be near Spring Hill, FL. I just hope FEMA is ready for this one. They need to start proving themselves over there.
Good Luck To All.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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