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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71625 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:38 PM

OK. Lets end that stuff there. Use the PM if you need to.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #71626 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:39 PM

Quote:

Quote:

It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.




ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

Since it is not the lower Bahamas that would be in the direct path should it turn to the north now.. it appears that the NHC is thinking that the storm will move more across the peninsula and hit the Bahamas from the west.



Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: jessiej]
      #71627 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:40 PM

Quote:

It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.




Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2&gtype=JPG

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: Hugh]
      #71629 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:42 PM

Can anyone explain to me what has to happen in the atmosphere for Ernesto to take a track toward the AL/FL border. I just don't trust these models and predictions since Katrina was supposed to hit Appalachacola and hit N.O. and Ivan was supposed to drift to N.O. and ended up creaming us in Pensacola area. Is there any chance that in the next 2 days the atmospheric conditions could change and bring Ernesto up through the hot waters of the mid gulf and into Pensacola? I am not asking for a % prediction, but am trying to understand why the models and NHC are so sure this thing is going to dogleg hard to the right in a couple of days.


This site is the best, that's why i am a long time supporter and donator. You guys have helped me out immensely in Ivan and Dennis and that's why i'm going to be sending Mike C. a check this week to help him pay for his enormous bandwidth costs that this site must use, more and more each year.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71630 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:47 PM

I don't know if I need to justify my above post on the Cayman's dropping the Hurricane Watch or not. But I will.

I have learned to Never Ever drop your guard on a Tropical Cyclone that is South of your location.
Whether it's S, SE, or SW. It can turn.
Along the same line I personally watch them until they are above my Latitude also.

Here are the NHC coordinates for the Caymans.

Grand Cayman -- GC 19.32 -81.26
Little Cayman, Cayman Brac -- GC 19.70 -79.94

While the current Model Forecasts take Ernesto East of the Caymans, forecast can and do change. As do the intensity forecasts.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
northward movement? [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #71632 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:51 PM

If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of Ernesto.

Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..

Which is why we have RECON and dropsondes..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: RevUp]
      #71633 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:53 PM

Quote:

Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.




That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.

A correction:
A slight correction---- the trof has moved somewhat from eastern Colorado and the tailing edge is in North Texas/Eastern New Mexico

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:00 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: TampaRand]
      #71634 - Sun Aug 27 2006 09:59 PM

Quote:

That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.




It's a different ULL. I see it on water vapor now. The "outflow" from Ernesto is being pulled up and around this ULL which is well north of the storm, and the ULL is tracking due west it appears, toward the NW Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The pattern probably looks more complicated to me than it really is, but something pulled Ernesto to a NW track from WNW, and this looks like the culprit.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Max Mayfield [Re: danielw]
      #71635 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:00 PM

Daniel, I would just trust that the Caymen Island Mets are getting info from NHC that they trust. There is a big difference between the general public taking a downgrade the wrong way and an official government forecasting service. I don't think you are giving the Meteorologist there enough credit by saying they are taking the storm lightly becuase they downgraded warnings. They looked at the data and are feeling that the worst they might see are some TS storm force winds, but do not consider it an absolute based on the forecast. Its not like they are just sitting there looking at the public advisories and saying, 'Oh well, its just a TS. We can drop our warnings.' They comminicate with the Hurricane Center too.

--------------------
Jim


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 131
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #71636 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:03 PM

Quote:


Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2&gtype=JPG

TG




If anything it looks to be on the wane per the Color IR loop.

IR loop

Hope the trend continues.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: northward movement? [Re: LoisCane]
      #71637 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:05 PM

Quote:

If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of Ernesto.

Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..




I did see a small pocket of 30kt shear a ways northeast of the center (NE quadrantish-but way off towards the farthest outflow) and some Cirrus clouds in that area.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:14 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: northward movement? [Re: TampaRand]
      #71645 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:35 PM

This thread has corruption problems so I'm closing it a bit early. I have put a stub up for the new 11PM update a bit early to fix problems with missing posts.

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hofloka
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening [Re: Doombot!]
      #71656 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM

Just check the map and i think from an amateur point of view that you are right

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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 199
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: northward movement? [Re: TampaRand]
      #71660 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:49 PM

Reposted in the new thread... thanks.

new thread... future posts over there. -HF

Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:51 PM)


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