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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
      #71409 - Sun Aug 27 2006 12:54 PM

4:35 PM Update

Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

Hurricane Watches are up for the entire Florida Keys as well.

More to come soon...

2 PM Update
Official advisory still has Ernesto as a hurricane, but based on the latest recon observation, it is much weaker and being affected by land. With hope, the island of Hati will disrupt the storm enough to tear it apart. More information is needed, however. More to come later...

1:30 PM Update
Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at 1 PM EDT today. Those in the areas should start looking toward state and local officials and local news media outlets for more details.

Original Update
Mid day Ernesto Update: Also see Clark Evans' blog below.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.
Residents of the Florida Keys should begin to make evacuation plans for the early morning hours tomorrow in advance of the storm. Residents of the southern half of the Peninsula should begin reviewing their hurricane preparedness plans, just in case. Residents further north along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa need to begin thinking about making preparations for a potential direct imapct from Ernesto sometime late in the work week, and e veryone else just needs to stay abreast of the situation for the time being.



Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.

A hurricane warning also remains for southwestern Hati. High winds and much rainfall will cause a lot of grief for the folks in the area.

Hank tells us that the thoughts on Ernesto are almost a completely different situation than yesterday.

For most of yesterday it seemed as if Florida wasn't even in the 'cone' everybody always worries over..... today it's the most prominent feature there behind perhaps Cuba.

However, this is one of those situations where subtleties of the track and the character of the storm make the intensity forecasts close to useless. We are likely going into a Dennis or Charley type situation here (See map of all three storms plotted).. something with elements of both, but with some potential key differences.

Hurricane Ernesto appears to be a very small-core system. Systems like these can spin up and down very rapidly. Ernesto is in a very similar position to where Dennis was last year.. and Dennis spun up to a very strong category 4 as it grazed into southern Cuba.

Hurricane Ernesto does not have nearly the organization or quite the upper environment Dennis had, so while it may finally deepen (hasn't really since yesterday... 997mb is usually associated with a Tropical Storm) some before making landfall tomorrow morning, it probably won't be a major hurricane going in.

It also looks to take a longer, more tortuous track over Cuba than Dennis did.. and after that the similarities with Dennis may end. Dennis did spin rapidly back up to a category 4 after leaving Cuba, though.. as a note.

The similarities with Charley are that a trough will be stationed northwest of Ernesto and Recurve the storm... maybe over the peninsula of Florida, maybe into north Florida... maybe even across southeast Florida.

The storm will likely be a mid-range tropical storm leaving Cuba (note the official NHC forecast keeps it a hurricane, both are possible) with a disrupted core. a few hours over the Florida straits may or may not allow it to reorganize, so if it goes right into south Florida, don't expect much of a storm.

If it tracks a bit further west, say into or west of the Keys, and is not hugging the southwestern Florida coast.. it will be doing something like what Charley did, and may be able to spin up substantially.
A much weakened storm over Cuba may actually be worse than a slightly weakened one, because the tendency to get further out in the gulf will be greater if the storm is weaker.



These are just subtle factors in track here, but they also can make the difference between a tropical storm for Florida, or a major hurricane. It is worth noting that the threat of a massive, large wind field hurricane that can smash hundreds of miles of coastal structures with surge is out of the question. The threat for a strong hurricane would be one with a tight, intense wind core that could inflict substantial structural damage close to the landfall point, and maybe a ways inland from there.

There is something else a tad interesting and that is the threat of the storm slowing down, if the ridging doesn't decay as much as shown or the trough doesn't dig as much. The storm could potentially slow to a drift over the Gulf in such scenario... not strongly represented by any model, but theoretically possible. It could also move very slowly over Florida and cause flooding in places. The threat for a big hurricane hit on Florida is fairly limited to the west central coast up to the big bend area. the panhandle, isn't totally out of the woods and if the storm were to come up there could be facing a mature and dangerous hurricane.
Right now it doesn't look like there will be enough ridging to take it there. Places like Georgia and the Carolinas... the northeast part of Florida... would maybe experience tropical storm conditions along the coastline... maybe a little stronger further up in the Carolinas right near the coast if it were to move a little offshore and reintensify.

There will be lots of rain whether it does that or tracks inland... either way.
elsewhere.. Debby has just about signed off for 2006... the wave/low combo near 17/33 is well-defined with weak convection, but in a region of subsidence and marginal water that should prevent any development for another day or two.

Mild model support for it, and it already has plenty of latitude which should promote an early recurvature for anything that might form. Beyond that the Atlantic may very well continue active in the coming week or two.

Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


Debby

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: MikeC]
      #71412 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:07 PM

the 12Z GFS is a real interesting run..taking a weakened Earnesto into south FL..around the everglades..taking it into the Atlantic where it intensifies, and possibly does a loop d loop..I can't remember models this way....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: pcola]
      #71416 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:25 PM

I am so sick of computer models. This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind boggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis. It never wavered on their predictions. Ernesto is a whole other story. Why so difficult? I'm sure things are going to change again in the next 24 hours.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: MikeC]
      #71417 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:26 PM

I have noticed in the last several frames the has been a distinct westward motion, and a slower forward motion. A couple of questions/comments. I notice that the BAMM Mid has trended westward which might have more justification if Ernesto does not strengthen much and has significant interaction w/ Haiti. It also looks like it might miss the tip of Haiti entirely (center of the storm that is). Usually when they slow down they are feeling the effects of something that causes this...anyone got an answer for this?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: SirCane]
      #71418 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:28 PM

Quote:

I am so sick of computer models. This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind moggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis. It never wavered on their predictions. Ernesto is a whole other story.



You have a better solution?


In other news, it looks like on the satallite loop that Ernesto has slowed down significantly. What would that do to the track if it continues?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: WeatherNut]
      #71419 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:28 PM

Quote:

Usually when they slow down they are feeling the effects of something that causes this...anyone got an answer for this?




7000 foot mountains may be too much for it to climb over. Seriously, it might be trying to find a path of lesser resistance "around" Haiti. I've seen it before with Jamaica for no apparent reason.

Anybody got word on the recon? No vortex yet


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:30 PM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: Hugh]
      #71420 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:31 PM

mandatory evacuation for the Keys this afternoon starting at 1pm (yes I know it's after 1pm now).
They expect T.S. conditions to begin Monday.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: WeatherNut]
      #71422 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:35 PM

Topography and atmosphere --- tropical cyclones will always move in a fine balance with the environment around it. Ernesto might be moving more westward again in response to the topography to the north, low-mid level steering flow, and the strong upper level low to the north. If it continues moving more westward, it might be like Lili, 2002
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2002lili1.gif

Edited by RevUp (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:38 PM)


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida 26.46N 81.80W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71423 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:36 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71424 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:40 PM

Quote:

mandatory evacuation for the Keys this afternoon starting at 1pm (yes I know it's after 1pm now).
They expect T.S. conditions to begin Monday.




What is up with the weather service this weekend??? Announcing an evacation order ten minutes after it is effective?!?!

The NWS does not issue such orders, the city/county/state does that.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 27 2006 07:23 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #71426 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:42 PM

Latest (12Z) GFDL is a little to the left of the previous run, but still has landfall in the panhandle/big bend area of Florida. It is still not showing a recurvature to the NE at any point along the track.

Based on satellite appearances, Ernesto is not a hurricane right now. Hopefully, there will be some recon data shortly.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED* [Re: Hugh]
      #71427 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:43 PM

Post deleted by RevUp

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Monroe County Info [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #71428 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:45 PM

Here is the latest evacuation order:

"Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at 1 PM EDT today. Floridians and visitors to the state should keep updated on the latest forecast information for Hurricane Ernesto via local or national media outlets today. Floridians are urged to finalize family and business disaster plans and supply kits today. Be prepared to act next in the event that Ernesto threatens Florida's Keys, southeast Florida, or the Peninsula. A quick and relatively simple way to get a disaster plan for your family or business can be found on this website's home page at www.floridadisaster.org."

http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: RevUp]
      #71429 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:47 PM

In the last thread, people kept comparing Ernesto to Charlie. While it has some of the features (a recurvature hitting of the western penninsula of FL), it has a very different track. Charlie went much further west, crossing near the western tip of Cuba, before recurving back toward FL. Ernesto's track takes it almost skimming along the coast of FL. Land interaction will be much greater with Ernesto's "official track guidence" than it was with Charlie.

See: http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2004s3-2006s5


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dredlox
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: SirCane]
      #71433 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:51 PM

"This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind moggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis."

I understand you are upset, everyone is. Just to be fair to the NHC, Dennis was a very easy one to predict. That was a pattern seen time and time again with no surprises. This one is harder. I think they mostly do a good job.

About the intensity - dont you guys feel, given Katrina, Charlie and just about everything else that enters the Breeding Ground (gulf), that Ernesto's intensity coming off Cuba is almost irrelevelant to anything other than the Keys?

Katrina was severly weakened, down to about tropical storm strength, and a scant day and 1/2 later was one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes ever.

Charley came limping off Cuba and yet still boiled to category 4 in like 200 miles over water, and it was moving quickly.

The way I see it, it matters little if it's a tropical storm coming off Cuba. Given the time it would have between say Tampa and the Keys, it could grow to immense (cat4+) intensity. What do you all think?


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re:center [Re: MikeC]
      #71434 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:53 PM

just wondering if the center is relocating. looking at the infrared, the red colors disappear and now there seems to be a little red ball forming east of where the other center was. anyone hae any thoughts? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71438 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM

Charlie has nothing todo with Ernesto.....for 1 its not the same path..and 2nd the trough coming down is not as strong..this wont make a sharp turn.....For now..its how strong it will be when it leaves Cuba late Tuesday and where it leaves???? Also how much time it will have to strengthen cause if it enters florida near the glades..then might be a strong TS or min Hurricane..but if it stays off the west coast of florida to at least Sarasota N then a Cat 2-3 is possible...also I feel a track N to near 28N before any bend to the NNE...but thats 3.5 days away. Its just a watch storm...and currently I feel only a TS right now.

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darseys
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71439 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:55 PM

this system doesnt have the potential to become a 4 does it? Charlie was an extremely fast moving small cane. this one appears that it will be bigger and less intense. Do all you experts somewhat agree with the official track at this time? it certainly has changed substantially over 24 hrs. wow!

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: dredlox]
      #71440 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:56 PM

Katrina was not severely weakened when it entered the Gulf... in fact, it was a very healthy system as it emerged since it was intensifying pretty rapidly before landfall in Florida and did not spend a great deal of time over the peninsula. It was nearly as strong when it entered the Gulf as it was when it hit Florida.

If Ernesto is a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane when it enters the Gulf, it will be a threat to rapidly intensify. However, if it severely damaged over Cuba and is only a weak system entering the Gulf, it likely won't have enough time to become a strong hurricane.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: darseys]
      #71442 - Sun Aug 27 2006 01:58 PM

This has a tight core..simular to Charlie...I know I said above its nothing like charlie in path and strength....but tight cores can really crank up...and spin down due to mountains.....

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