dredlox
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
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"Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down."
That's a pretty interesting prediction. It seems like you were right, it really lopped off a lot there so far. I was unsure about that, because if you liken it to (another teeny eye, tightly bound cane), sure didnt spiral down at all. That sucker had some horse power, it trucked over land and when it bounced into me (who heh, evacuated from Tampa to about 6 miles from the center unluckily) it was very strong still.
Anyways, good call so far on that from several of you. I hadnt heard that before.
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allan
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
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Quote:
This is only my 2 cents worth, but these are 2 scenarios that I can see happening with :
1) clips the eastern part of Cuba, gets shoved to the west by the high pressure ridge and then the system in Rockies is going to have it turn towards the NE resulting in a landfall somewhere between West Central/South Central Florida Gulf Coast; or
2) The high pressure ridge that is supposed to shove on his northward track moves further east (soon) the storm system in Rockies comes down faster and just clips Florida before going back into the Atlantic.
That's only my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.
Wow thats exactly how I see it. Which is not good. If it goes through the straits we are in for a big storm.. Lets hope for scenario to. I woke up surprised this morning... I wonder if there will be another surprise tommorrow morning. Thanks for pointing out those possible scenarios.. Though by the way it looks I think the first one is more likely. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
"Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down."
That's a pretty interesting prediction. It seems like you were right, it really lopped off a lot there so far. I was unsure about that, because if you liken it to (another teeny eye, tightly bound cane), sure didnt spiral down at all. That sucker had some horse power, it trucked over land and when it bounced into me (who heh, evacuated from Tampa to about 6 miles from the center unluckily) it was very strong still.
Anyways, good call so far on that from several of you. I hadnt heard that before.
That's pretty characteristic of smaller systems. Larger systems, while much more resilent to shear take time to get going and time to wind down. Smaller systems can be very robust in the way they respond to adverse conditions. But because larger systems have more potential energy, they can blow up to monsters FAST, also-Rita was good example of that, but was over a lot of warm open water. Smaller canes, like was pack a powerful punch at the eyewall,but less in outer energy. I didn't evac Tampa for . Saw that one coming, but with fingers crossed.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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just finally got the guantanamo radar to load finally. looks bad, that . get the impression from the radar echoes that the center isn't stacked very well. last few IR 2 frames i looked at have some exposed low cloud lines south of the burst at the center (looks like, anyway...), which make it look like the low level center is in the wrong place, or there's an extra.. or it's just really disorganized.
i wouldn't be surprised if it reforms, or crosses eastern cuba and gets north of the island by later tomorrow. if it doesn't... wow, could weaken quite a bit. also wouldn't be surprised if the next recon can establish a weaker system than advertised on the 11 pm advisory.
00z models soon.
HF 0334z28august
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dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
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Any idea when the data fromt the jetstream will be up
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
just finally got the guantanamo radar to load finally. looks bad, that . get the impression from the radar echoes that the center isn't stacked very well. last few IR 2 frames i looked at have some exposed low cloud lines south of the burst at the center (looks like, anyway...), which make it look like the low level center is in the wrong place, or there's an extra.. or it's just really disorganized.
i wouldn't be surprised if it reforms, or crosses eastern cuba and gets north of the island by later tomorrow. if it doesn't... wow, could weaken quite a bit. also wouldn't be surprised if the next recon can establish a weaker system than advertised on the 11 pm advisory.
00z models soon.
HF 0334z28august
You know, Hank, I was sort of noticing that anomaly also, just a little earlier (After it FINALLY loaded-WOW what a slow server-maybe a lot of us on it). This thing looks pretty nicked up to me, and yes, I agree, it looks un-stacked and if it has to make the Cuba E-W axis, I don't know that it gets goin' again. It looks like the LLC is in the wrong place!
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I read that, too, Rasvar and I did NOT expect to see them say a "shift to the LEFT". If just clips Cuba's eastern side, we'll be looking at a whole new ball game.
As they say, only time will tell, but as far as I can read into that discussion, they are not expecting to die anytime soon. Although they mention it, I don't think they're buying it.
AFLAC!!! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Quote:
which make it look like the low level center is in the wrong place, or there's an extra.. or it's just really disorganized.
i wouldn't be surprised if it reforms, or crosses eastern cuba and gets north of the island by later tomorrow.
This storm has been "jumpy" for awhile now and that trend just keeps on keeping on. The track shifts N and E with every update... its actually becoming slightly silly at this point We went from a upper GOM strike to maybe a SE FL coast event in just two days as refuses to behave and follow the rules. This run over Cuba tomorrow will be very intresting to watch - on one hand we could have strong storm heading ripping thru Key West or we could have weak TS brushing Miami :?:
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
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Looking at the lastest sat images I think the center has reformed a little to the NE of the track and it looks like it is heading N. Will this be a fish, SE Florida, Carolinas, or the current track threat. Any thoughts?
New center?
Resized Image to fit within 600x500 guidelines - Mike C.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 28 2006 12:24 AM)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Quote:
... it looks like a high pressure area is sitting over GA which would cause to be pushed back to west before reaching the FL Keys. Am I to assume that this high is forecast to move east thus clearly the way for to move N into S FL? Can someone confirm that as well?
This 12-hr RUC fcst sfc fcst vt: 28/12z hints at a circulation on the SE coast of Cuba, and also shows the SFC ridge extending only to the Bahamas with southerly flow off the E coast of FL. A similar pattern is shown for 700mb vt:28/12z It's just some model output, though. will continue to have a mind of its own. FL is far from being out of the woods yet -- has as good a handle on this as anyone right now.
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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After re reading the post on a shift to the left that MAY happen 00Z, it seems to me that they were talking about s run into FL and not the interaction with Cuba. Any thoughts?
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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This is a very weird system-very challenging. I looked at it on the IR Loop, just to get a different look and it is just ragged and looks like the core convection is in different places from the LLC. Didn't we see this about 36 hours back when it was getting sheared? Somebody has confidence in , but I certainly don't -it is ragged, almost like it's falling apart. If it's going to get something going, it had better do it fast because this looks not too good right now. Maybe it will get it's act going, but the thing doesn't look real healthy to me right now. JMO........
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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One thing that could happen is that the center could reform, you stare at the satellite loop enough (Don't do this it will drive you crazy!) and you wonder if it's reforming a bit to the north, meaning it would just clip the eastern tip of Cuba and then move westward a bit along the northern shore, basically avoiding the whole inland Cuba scenario.. I really don't trust the models tonight, so it'll be interesting to see in the morning.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I believe that they are talking about the track in general, i.e., it has been shifting east for the last few runs, now that they been able to look at some other info, they wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift back to the left again. Which isn't all that unusual --- they are just getting more accurate information to feed into the models.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Ah heck, we're already crazy, Mike!  Just to throw another monkey wrench into the mess, BN9 model shows clipping Cuba and basically coming up the entire middle of Florida. How's that for a solution? Eeek.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
Ah heck, we're already crazy, Mike! Just to throw another monkey wrench into the mess, BN9 model shows clipping Cuba and basically coming up the entire middle of Florida. How's that for a solution? Eeek.
Yeah, Ithink I'm going to just go to bed, and see what happens at the 11 am advisories and models then. THIS STORM IS MAKIN" ME CRAZY!!!!!!! I don't know what to believe about it anymore. Incidentally, Mike was right ---I stared at the loop too long. G'night, y'all.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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Mike,
I see what you are saying about the eye, however it looks like the eye kind of rolled n/ne and then back s/w. If you take a look at a loop with a 3:45 UTC, it looks just n of it's plot. Does this sound about right?
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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
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I came across something and hopefully everyone takes a look at it.
I know it doesn't relate to (at least for the time being) but it is really a helpful reminder to stay on guard.
http://www.ambergriscaye.com/25years/unpredictablehurricanes.html
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My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4
Michael.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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hey, i like the newer 00Z globals. they've invented a new down-the-road issue with the storm. whereas they'd been slowing the storm after it recurved, some are now showing it snagging off the carolinas, or right on the coast. 00Z does that. i hadn't looked at the euro... only seeing the 12Z, but it has the storm deepening offshore and backing into NC as the rex-like ridge behind the shortwave snaps into the mid-level ridge off the southeast. any of this stuff keeps persisting, and we could be looking at hovering about 1000 mi nnw of its current position labor day weekend, whaling and drenching away at the coast. i'm having flashbacks to gordon in 1994 and in 1999.
i guess if it were to get north of cuba sooner, intensify and all.. the chances of it getting caught would be less. on the other hand, if it moves slowly over cuba, slowly over florida... and up the coast... chances of low-mid level ridging putting the stopsign on its recurvature could come into play.
HF 0447z28august
as a side note... it has been raining and raining on hispaniola. isn't a very powerful storm, but nearly stalled as it is just west of the island... the rainfall on the rugged, largely defoliated countryside is probably creating tremendous flooding and landslide issues. i'd expect very grim news from the island in wake of the storm, just as dr. masters has been saying over at wunderground. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 28 2006 12:54 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HF...talk about deja vue. You get a double nod from HPC on your crystal ball.
This is an excerpt from the earlier PMDEPD.
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 30 2006- 12Z Sun Sep 03 2006
"...SE QUADRANT OF THE ...
A COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY S THRU THIS AREA WILL ENCOUNTER ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED/THU.
THROW IN THE UNCERTAINTIES CREATED BY THE TRACK OF HURCN AND YOU HAVE A RECIPE FOR SOME REALLY BIG RAINS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ERN GULF/S ATLANTIC STATES AND FL.
PLEASE REFER TO DISCUSSIONS FROM CONCERNING .
Bold emphasis added~danielw
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