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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
Re: this is rich [Re: danielw]
      #71714 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:04 AM

what does that all mean?

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: this is rich [Re: inHISgrip]
      #71715 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:09 AM

I also want to know like InhisGrip but I too want to know how is Ernesto looking image wise and alot of people are refering to Ernesto being dead or almost there is he? And how long until the plane reach Ernesto?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: this is rich [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71716 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:12 AM

Right now, I believe the GOES satellite that is currently monitoring Ernesto and the rest of the Atlantic is undergoing an eclipse. It should be back online, according to NOAA, at around 4:30 UTC. More then on how it looks..

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: this is rich [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71717 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:13 AM

Recon is tasked with a center fix at 0600Z...about 50 minutes from now. Give or take.

Translating my above post.
Cold front meeting Tropical Air mass from near or around Ernesto...means that the warm humid air and the cold dry air could make one huge rainstorm. The actual location and timing are still...up in the air. (No pun intended)

That forecast was from an earlier model run, and may or may not hold out after the new model run.


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: this is rich [Re: danielw]
      #71719 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM

What times do the model runs normaly come out? I have never known.

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: this is rich [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71720 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM

Usually around the time intermediate advisories come out.

--------------------
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: this is rich [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71721 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:34 AM

Can anyone a Met and/or Mod tell me where the center of Ernesto is ?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: this is rich [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71722 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:39 AM

Quote:

Can anyone a Met and/or Mod tell me where the center of Ernesto is ?




You'll probably have to wait until the recon fix at 2, or the intermediate advisory... whichever hits the wires first.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: this is rich [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71723 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:45 AM

I see an ULL sitting right on top of Ernesto and this is leading me to believe that after Cuba there won't be anyhting left of him to track. Any comment I want to know anyone's thought/feelings on this?

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: this is rich [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71724 - Mon Aug 28 2006 01:46 AM

Are we still thinking that Erenesto will come back to be a hurricane again?
If it is encountering this already and has to still cross Cuba I am wondering if it will hold it's own or not

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: this is rich [Re: JustMe]
      #71725 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:10 AM

How and Why is Ernesto being kept at a 50mph TS looking at the recon I only saw #'s that would make it a TD. Are they for someone's reason leaving it a TS? and what happens when it becomes a TD over Cuba or even weaker then and people start wondering about the big jump in decrease when it really wasn't ne.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: this is rich [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #71726 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:14 AM

All along they have felt that they were missing the strongest winds over land and since they cannot fly over those countries airspace.

This time I think it's somewhat that, but also that they are waiting for recon to get in there. If they don't have anything better update wise to use, they will stick with persistence until they find out otherwise.

If you look at Dvorak numbers, surprisingly, it's still a T3.3 which surely supports winds of 50. That was as of the last sat picture before the nightly blackout.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: this is rich [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #71727 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:19 AM

URNT12 KNHC 280612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/05:56:00Z
B. 19 deg 10 min N
075 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 195 deg 026 kt
G. 145 deg 078 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 16 C/ 1460 m
J. 18 C/ 1458 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0905A Ernesto OB 06
MAX FL WIND 26 KT S QUAD 05:32:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 160 / 34NM


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #71728 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:31 AM

Sats are back up here:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Max wind from Recon now up to 36 kts at flight level. I don't kow if NHC will leave Ernesto at TS status or not.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #71729 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:40 AM

goshsakes, drop the hurricane warnings for haiti and southeast cuba. the previous evening recon pass barely found any gale force winds either.
ernesto is stuck over a narrow strait with hispaniola disrupting its inflow (and it's offcenter anticyclone causing much of the convection to fire east over the island), a small, misaligned core, and has an unexpected and nagging upper shear axis cutting across it from another upper vortmax that wouldn't have been an issue had it stayed near jamaica. Ernesto will probably weaken and reform on the north coast of cuba, or barely come off as anything if it stays over land for a day or so. however, basic synoptic setup favors it to restrengthen in spite of everything when it gets a little distance from land (and also when it can feed off the convergence from that strong easterly fetch just north of haiti).
we're probably going to hear a bunch of people saying 'it's dead' or 'hispaniola killed it' or 'no more Ernesto' when the crowd wakes up tomorrow. i'll just remind everyone again... small core system. it can spin up in a hurry, and the essential factors that have let it develop so far aren't very much changed, just it's relationship to landmasses. that will change, and during the next couple of days shear should again drop to favorable levels.
HF 0639z28august

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 28 2006 02:40 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Models [Re: HanKFranK]
      #71730 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:46 AM

The new model run is out. It's hard to describe.

here's the link:
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/06082806


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 364
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Ernesto & FL East Coast Track? [Re: MikeC]
      #71731 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:47 AM

I think there is a real possibility of Ernesto taking a course right up the east coast of the FL peninsula and maybe the possibility exists it won't make landfalll and skirt near the coast as the shortwave approaching the SE digs southward and a well welcomed cold front visits and passes through the SE USA. Satellite presentation tonight is difficult to locate the center and it can't be ruled out that the center may actually be further north under the coldes cloud tops and convection if so, track will continue to shift east.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA 29.93N 89.93W
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #71732 - Mon Aug 28 2006 02:53 AM

Those models, the BAM suite, A98E and LBAR have all shifted a good deal back west or left of the 00Z run.

BAMD went from 26.8 85.5 to 27.5 88.1
BAMM went from 29.9 79.4 to 31.4 83.7
A98E went from 35.4 74.1 to 27.0 83.6 (now that's a jump!)
LBAR went from 27.7 83.4 to 29.3 84.0

The point isn't that any of these are right or wrong, but that they all shifted back west some. Let's see how the other models react.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Models [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #71733 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:00 AM

Here's a bit more to the break down.

Differences for 090106 06Z, Last night's 06Z run vs Tonight's 06Z run.
BAMD +2.5N/ 0.0W
BAMM +6.1N/ +2.0W
A98E -3.8N/ -1.5W
LBAR +1.4N/ +1.1W

AND THE BETTER NEWS;
SHIPS Down 22kts to forecast of 78kts.
DSHP-Down even more to forecast of 35kts.

Shortcut to graphic on front page.
Green and yellow/ brown plots have updated at 06Z
Pinks and blues are from 00Z run.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL052006mlts.gif

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 28 2006 03:08 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1068
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Models [Re: danielw]
      #71734 - Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 AM

First, a disclaimer - We've been packing/cleaning/moving for a week, so I'm not following Ernesto nearly as close as I typically follow tropical cyclones, and have been doing so while quite punchy.

So take this observation with a grain or ten of salt That said - It is looking somewhat plausible to me that Ernesto may get nudged farther west/southwest - as some models have recently suggested, but perhaps even a little bit more - I have been watching that incoming fist of dry air to his north. Here's a kicker - I suspect that unlike Chris, who was north of the islands, Ernesto is *possibly* south-enough of the islands to not be as impacted (should this indeed play out) that he may not have the triple-whammy of dry air + shear + land. In fact, he may simply get nudged over some warmer waters and farther from land -- this is not the official forecast, of course, and just one possibility as I see it. Ernesto is such a devil to forecast - lots of variables - and I do not submit that I am at all 100% bought in to this - just that it looks much more possible now than just 24 hours ago.

Another possible outcome of this, should it play out, would be for it not to shove Ernesto enough - or soon enough - to keep him from fully entering Cuba, but quickly enough and potently enough for him to ride up the entire length of the island - more or less - and become severely disrupted.

I submit that within the next six hours or so it should become clear if either one of these really has a chance to play out. Bears watching, because either one suggests yet another drastic change in course and/or future intensity.


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