Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Atlantic Basin has Turned Quiet Again.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 120 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3294 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: Beach]
      #71767 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM

Quote:

Depending on Ernesto's departure from land, and how well he gets it together. It would suprise me to see the track move to the East again.
Maybe it will just run up the East Coast staying off of land.




Dr. Knabb of the NHC was just saying he thought the eastward trend has come to an end, because the NOAA jet injecting data into the models has made them come into much better agreement. It's quite obvious that this is the case.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
Embed MyHurricane on your site | Follow us on Twitter


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: MikeC]
      #71768 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM

My main concern now is the forward speed after he exits Cuba.If it is say 6mph or less than we all know he will have plenty of time to get much stronger.If you live in S. Florida plan on losing your power.I am not feeling good about this storm now,hopfully that will change.We need it to speed up after leaving Cuba,otherwise it is bad news.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: nicolew]
      #71769 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 AM

Quote:

I get Palm Beach/Treasure Coast news up here and they are hyping this storm up big time. What is the thinking - will the hurricane watch get extended this far north? The official track has it entering Miami-Dade as a hurricane and exiting near Daytona as a hurricane. I am debating putting up shutters only because of that ominous sentence in the 5 am discussion about Cat 2 or Cat 3 even! I lived in Miami during hurricane season last year and know what damage a Cat 1 can do - Wilma!!!! What is everyone's feeling about shutters?




I'm in Charlotte county and I boarded up yesterday.

I subscribe to the, "If I do it/have it, I won't need it" theory. *LOL*

This storm is VERY unpredictable. That means you should take every precaution you need to as if it's going to make a direct strike on your house. Otherwise you could be sorry.

It's better to be wrong and waste energy than to be wrong and be sorry.

If anyone is living inside the cone, they need to be preparing.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: MikeC]
      #71770 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 AM

Quote:

Accuweather wants to keep it a Tropical Storm, which is very plausable, but there is a lot to be said for very warm water with zero wind shear, so I'm thinking it's going to be strengthening and borderline either just on hurricane side or storm side when it arrives in south Florida Tuesday night/Wednesday. This storm is moving, but still organizing and changing itself so viewing the satellite isn't all that much help.

Recon is the best for now as far as position. I certainly hope it decides to miss Florida to the east, but I don't think that will happen based on what is in those areas now.
.




I would not count on it being a TS, and I think it's irresponsible of them to stress that, if that's what they're doing. Charley spun up REALLY fast in just a few hours. Andrew did the same thing, as I recall. It only takes a few hours for one to spin up, and it's got plenty of time and warm water to do it in.

Not saying it will, but it's better to prepare for a Cat 2/3 strike and have a TS than it is fo tell everyone it's going to be a TS and have them not take any precautions at all.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71771 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:52 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Depending on Ernesto's departure from land, and how well he gets it together. It would suprise me to see the track move to the East again.
Maybe it will just run up the East Coast staying off of land.




Dr. Knabb of the NHC was just saying he thought the eastward trend has come to an end, because the NOAA jet injecting data into the models has made them come into much better agreement. It's quite obvious that this is the case.


I still think he's trying to roll around eastern tip of Cuba,stay away from dry air to N.W.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix/nwatl_wv_loop.php

Edited by Ned (Mon Aug 28 2006 07:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #71772 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:54 AM

My understanding from someone I know at KSC is that the rollback is only storm related. They were comfortable enough that anything from the lightning hit they could fix on the pad. Odds are, this scrubs any chance of launching until October now. It is not very likely that they will be able to rollback and flight check all systems and payload by September 11. They may try to skip some things; but in the current saftey issue window, I doubt they do. Ernesto 1, NASA 0.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: madmumbler]
      #71773 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:57 AM

I think there is some confusion on Accuweathers graphic. It is a poor representation, however, if you read their summary, they are not saying it will remain a TS. Their graphic is poor though becuase it does not show a status change.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: madmumbler]
      #71774 - Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 AM

I was looking at the last Forecast points available this morning from the satellites on the NOAA/NWS page. It seems to me that the ridge or guiding forces that formed the Tropical Forecast points is disappearing which will allow this storm to go anyplace it chooses off its own momentum once it clears land. It could even go back towards the west and from the looks of it still get into the Eastern Gulf. With the sheer relaxing and the temperatures warm, it is going to be a watcher and 3 hour updates may be very important. I believe that anyone who thinks Earnie is going to stay a Tropical storm is being very conservative and should pay more attention. The entire weather pattern is still moving west. I dont think that anything north is strong enough to pull the storm more eastward. Unless these Satellites and public pictures are too old .I know if it is free you get what you pay for.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #71775 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 AM

I was just thinking the same thing.... and several computer models have shifted back toward the Big Bend area it looks like. The only fly in that ointment is that I don't believe there will be much of an Ernesto left after it interacts with Cuba. Winds are down to 45mph, and the satellite presentation is pretty sickening.

Looking at the water vapor loop... the upper level flow north of Cuba is decidedly east-to-west.... but Ernesto has consistently moved east of the forecast, so it could possibly miss Florida altogether.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 28 2006 08:06 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: Hugh]
      #71776 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 AM

Quote:

I was just thinking the same thing.... and several computer models have shifted back toward the Big Bend area it looks like. The only fly in that ointment is that I don't believe there will be much of an Ernesto left after it interacts with Cuba. Winds are down to 45mph, and the satellite presentation is pretty sickening.

Looking at the water vapor loop... the upper level flow north of Cuba is decidedly east-to-west.... but Ernesto has consistently moved east of the forecast, so it could possibly miss Florida altogether.





As I said before, this scenerio is becoming more and more unlikely with surface analysis, every new model run and recon fixes. Unfortunately, this is shaping up to be a SE FL event, but where it comes on shore depends on when it falls off of Cuba's back.

I highly doubt it will head off into sea from here, because there are too many variables keeping it in check. Please also keep in mind that the models that have Ernesto hitting the Big Bend area are historically unreliable models, track-wise. Please also keep in mind that the NHC track is the one of most reliablity at this point, so listen to them and local officials.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
Embed MyHurricane on your site | Follow us on Twitter


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
re: ULL pulling it.. [Re: Ned]
      #71777 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM

I'd like to see it turn NE.. really. A nice day at the beach tomorrow night watching him move NNE would be real nice but I believe he is going to follow that nice upper level low to his north and I don't see him turning NE.

Nice thought to hold on to and at this point.. so fluid anything can happen.

Nice loop.

That ULL should ventilate it nicely when it hits water and help intensify it fast.

Not a good scenario.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: Hugh]
      #71778 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM

I don't think we should let the looks of Earnesto lull us into complacency at this point. I remember a little tightly wound storm that has recently posthumously been upgraded to a CAT 5 that did not do anything that was expected. Not the same area of the pond mind you, and this is for those who are reading as well. The bermuda triangle stories are full of sagas where there was nothing but blue skies on the horizon and a horrible storm approaches virtually out of thin air. These stories are based on little Earnestos interacting with the warm waters of the Florida Straights. Still hoping for a puddle jumper though.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #71779 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:19 AM

Thank you Guppie. Maybe this the 1835 storm not the 1935 storm.

Seriously... if you have some chicken bones to drop into the Bermuda Triangle.. now might be a good time.

People in Miami and all along the coast need to go into fast mode for hurricane prep if at 11am the discussion doesn't sound any better from the NHC.

Can hope it stays east enough to stay off shore.. is that possible?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 318
Loc: SWFL 26.89N 82.29W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #71780 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 AM

Quote:

I don't think we should let the looks of Earnesto lull us into complacency at this point. I remember a little tightly wound storm that has recently posthumously been upgraded to a CAT 5 that did not do anything that was expected. Not the same area of the pond mind you, and this is for those who are reading as well. The bermuda triangle stories are full of sagas where there was nothing but blue skies on the horizon and a horrible storm approaches virtually out of thin air. These stories are based on little Earnestos interacting with the warm waters of the Florida Straights. Still hoping for a puddle jumper though.




Sunday morning, before Andrew hit, my ex and I were in Key West and I took pictures looking out over the Atlantic at BEAUTIFUL blue, clear skies and calm waves.

That's why I say I hate smaller storms worse than bigger storms, because they are so unpredictable. Monster storms do more damage overall, but they're like slow, lumbering cows heading to the barn at the end of the day. They're going to keep coming. Smaller storms are like a herd of wild horses running around, turning on a moment's notice, no clear path.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: LoisCane]
      #71781 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:22 AM

Is anyone else thinking the center may be trying to reform off the northern coast of cuba and skip all the land interaction?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto23
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto.... [Re: charlottefl]
      #71782 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 AM

i think it maybe doing that. also a nw direction looks to me like it wont be over cuba that long. wnw would be a long time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: MikeC]
      #71783 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:34 AM

Kinda doing the shutter debate now. Will put the clear shutters up tonight upstairs; they snap in and its quick. Don't know about downstairs. For a Cat 1 I could to more damage to the house (or me) wrestling with them.


Is it me or is the GFDL shoing only a TS for Florida? Please, please, please no one but any stock in what I am saying.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Future storm? [Re: meto23]
      #71784 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:36 AM

I know we are watching Ernesto right now, but I was looking at the 6Z GFS and wow! A 976mb system along the US east coast on September 10th -12th heading close to North Carolina. Not use to seeing a system that powerful showing up that far out. I did a doubletake on that one.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: charlottefl]
      #71785 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 AM

That is definitely one of the choices. That is what is so anxiety producing about this storm. IT has many many choices. There is no telling which one it will make. It is a definite cliff hanger. They could make it a Soap Opera. Will he? Won't he? How bad will it be? All I can tell you for certain dear readers is that if you follow astrology, Tuesday is supposed to be a major day of conflict and surprise. I do hope they are still referring to fender benders and inappropriate gestures at stalled street lights.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Ernesto.... [Re: meto23]
      #71786 - Mon Aug 28 2006 08:39 AM

The path that Ernesto is on will take it into the open water much quicker than if it were on a true NW path.

That warm water should fire Ernesto back up later today and tonight.

THe local talk station in Orlando had a soldier on reporting from Guantanamo this morning.
He said they had winds gusting to 30 knots and seas of 4 to 5 feet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 12 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is disabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 35001

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center