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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?
      #71643 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:32 PM

7 AM Monday Update
At 5 AM EDT the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Southern Peninsula of Florida.
From Deerfield Beach Southward, and
from South of Chokolokee Southward along the West Coast.
A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for All of the Florida Keys, and for Andros Island in the Bahamas.



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Bahamas.

Ernesto is betwen Hati and Cuba at the moment, still recovering from land interaction yesterday. The current official National Hurricane Center forecast now keeps the storm a tropical storm over Cuba, but allows for some reintensification before reaching the upper keys and crossing into south Florida, and up through the state very near the east coast of Florida throughout Wednesday. It could give us in central Florida up to 6 inches of rain.

Intensity wise the hurricane center expects it to regain to hurricane strength in the Florida Straits, as the conditions there will be almost perfect for intensification when it reaches there. Very warm water, near zero shear, which gives it a window to rapidly strengthen (Remember Ernesto is a compact system).

The window of opportunity, however, is short, so it's not too likely, but possible, so those in the south Florida coastline will want to prepare for a Category 2 hurricane at least and hope for much better. Better would be further east and off the coast entirely and / or a weaker storm.

If the system stays over Cuba longer it may never reach hurricane strength before crossing into Florida, interactions with Cuba make predicting how strong the system will be very difficult.

In short we probably will not know this until tomorrow / after it cross Cuba..

11 PM Sunday Update
Hurricane Watches are now up for Andros island in the Bahamas. And tropical storm warnings for other parts. No new watches for Florida have been issued tonight.

The current forecast track has Ernesto staying a Tropical Storm over Cuba, then strengthening into a Category one hurricane before making landfall on the west coast of Florida and moving up through the central part of the
state into central Florida just west of Orlando wednesday night.





What happened? One guess is that the small upper vortex directly north of Ernesto is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. With the exception of the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of Hispaniola.

The core has spun down from lack of inflow -- these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core . Iit has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of Cuba. Otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across Cuba. Now with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater Antilles. Hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm does not suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.

The entire Florida coast, Cuba, and the Bahamas are still under the gun. Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.

Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here


Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati [Re: MikeC]
      #71647 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:37 PM

It's looking a bit ragged on IR right now. I wonder if there is even a closed circulation on Gitmo's radar anymore? Do you all see one?

--------------------
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71650 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM

It looks like convection is actually starting to redevelop again. We'll see what the Diurnal Maxima does in regards to its intensity.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71651 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM

I had my doubts that Ernesto was a TS at 5:00. I suspect they will keep him at a 50 MPH TS until recon gets in there again since it is probable it will recover. I think the forecast is going to be interesting. I am actually wondering if this system will be one that ends up being more of a Carolina storm then a Florida storm.

--------------------
Jim


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
First shot [Re: MikeC]
      #71653 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:45 PM

i'm wondering what's going on with Ernesto just like everybody else...
best guess, the small upper vortex directly north of it is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. except for the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of hispaniola. the core has spun down from lack of inflow, i guess... storm is still immature--these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core. it has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of cuba. otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across cuba. i don't think with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater antilles. hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm don't suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.
the talk of warnings for the bahamas... that the storm track may be further east and even outside of the gulf... makes me think the forecast track will shift right again for the 11pm advisory. may not even enter the gulf.. but the entire florida coast, cuba, and the bahamas are still under the gun. Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.
nothing much else to report in the basin. debby was fired for slacking on the job. the wave/low at 17/35 or so still a broad, well-defined gyre. it's in a stable environment and needs something to wake it up... won't happen until it gets further west if it can keep it's definition in the meanwhile. probably another wave coming off.
interesting that the disturbance south of the mexican coast is barely moving. the westerly anomalies at low levels are really kicking, and suggest that more development will take place in the atlantic coming up.
HF 0244z28august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:58 PM)


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati [Re: Rasvar]
      #71657 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM

I don't see what info you are looking at that would support Ernesto being a Carolina storm. Do you have a link of where I could see this?

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter


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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: First shot [Re: HanKFranK]
      #71658 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM

The 0300z forecast track didn't change much, and the wind is the same, movement as well. I think the NHC is looking for more data from the NOAA aircraft en route.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: First shot [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71661 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:51 PM

The ULL moving from the Bahamas west towards FL is something I have not heard mentioned in regards to the future track/effect on Ernesto, so I hope someone with more knowledge then me can chime in on this aspect. All the clouds over FL are moving due west... and upon further investiation (using the Atlantic water vapor loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html ) it looks like a high pressure area is sitting over GA which would cause Ernesto to be pushed back to west before reaching the FL Keys. Am I to assume that this high is forecast to move east thus clearly the way for Ernesto to move N into S FL? Can someone confirm that as well?

I must say while COC looks very weak the outflow is extremely impressive. Maybe this is why the NHC keeps saying it's going to return to hurricane status despite the fact that its lost most of it's core energy. Both the mountains of Haiti and the some shear has done alot of damage but given the huge upper level outflow I see it sure has the makings of something nasty down the road.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: First shot [Re: HanKFranK]
      #71662 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:53 PM

good to see NOAA9 (G-iv) is up and so is AF309.. there should be three planes up.... can confirm two....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: First shot [Re: JMII]
      #71663 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:57 PM

Quote:

I must say while COC looks very weak the outflow is extremely impressive. Maybe this is why the NHC keeps saying it's going to return to hurricane status despite the fact that its lost most of it's core energy. Both the mountains of Haiti and the some shear has done alot of damage but given the huge upper level outflow I see it sure has the makings of something nasty down the road.




The outflow is being cut off because the feeder bands from the south can't wrap back around the center from the north. This is because of the 2000m mountains in Hispaņola. Once the COC moves further away, it'll be a bit easier for it to reorganize, I believe. Also, it's important to note that some models take the storm off the coast of Cuba sooner rather than later. If this were the case, Ernesto would have an easier time gathering its strength. Also, if that were the case, we could be looking at an east coast FL landfall.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: First shot [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #71667 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM

Quote:

good to see NOAA9 (G-iv) is up and so is AF309.. there should be three planes up.... can confirm two....




Assuming no equipment malfunctions, I think these two missions will help improve the modeling quite a bit. The upper air sampling will probably be the biggest help. I am suspecting that the recon mission will find about a 35-40 knt center. Will be interesting to see how much the inflow to Ernesto can recover noe.

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71668 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:00 PM

This is only my 2 cents worth, but these are 2 scenarios that I can see happening with Ernesto:

1) Ernesto clips the eastern part of Cuba, gets shoved to the west by the high pressure ridge and then the system in Rockies is going to have it turn towards the NE resulting in a landfall somewhere between West Central/South Central Florida Gulf Coast; or
2) The high pressure ridge that is supposed to shove Ernesto on his northward track moves further east (soon) the storm system in Rockies comes down faster and Ernesto just clips Florida before going back into the Atlantic.

That's only my opinion, so take it with a grain of salt.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Update [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71670 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:02 PM

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to Dry Tortugas.

Additional Watches may be required for portions of the Florida Peninsula early tomorrow morning.

Hurricane Watch going up for:
Andros Island in the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm warning going up for:
Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Bahamas.

The Government of Jamaica has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: First shot [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71671 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:04 PM

As regard the warnings/watches for the Bahamas reflects the NHC's latest track which puts the Bahamas in the cone and moves the line a bit right closer to the center of the peninsula. Not a major adjustment, but enough to get it away from my house, which is at the end of Tampa Bay North of MacDill AFB.

Maybe looking like landfall at like Port Charlotte area ala Charley? But heck, that may change, too.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sun Aug 27 2006 11:06 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: First shot [Re: TampaRand]
      #71674 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 PM

Interesting tidbit in the discussion. Was not actually expecting this. This is where the high altitude mission is a major help.


THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130. A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.

--------------------
Jim


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clueless
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
nasa's reaction [Re: TampaRand]
      #71675 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:09 PM

Sounds as if NASA has desiced that they can wait until the morning to decide whether to pull the shuttle from the pad. I would hate to be the person who had to make that decision. They have one, or possibly 2, more launch attemt opportunities, but if they wait too long... talk about stress

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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL 25.77N 80.19W
Re: First shot [Re: TampaRand]
      #71677 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:11 PM

Quote:

Maybe looking like landfall at like Port Charlotte area ala Charley? But heck, that may change, too.




As the NHC said at the 0300Z advisory, I would wait until the 00Z model runs come out to see a more definite forecast due to NOAA jet data injection.

--------------------
MyHurricane - Forecast models, wind radii, latest watches and warnings and more
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NeilT
Unregistered




Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto? [Re: MikeC]
      #71678 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:12 PM

Is it not possible for this storm to head NNW passing thru cuba only on the most western side. That would leave it in the open atlantic just south of bahamas and north of cuba. It could enter a path that would take it westward to the florida straights at that point? This storm is unbelievable. Once you think it is heading west, the center of circulation begins to redevelop in another location. Its like playing cat and mouse with this thing.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: First shot [Re: Josh Delsman]
      #71680 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM



As the NHC said at the 0300Z advisory, I would wait until the 00Z model runs come out to see a more definite forecast due to NOAA jet data injection.




That's just based on now. I would expect some movement for a couple of days back and forth. This is very unsettled yet and the models are having a hard time on consensus. When it clears Cuba, wherever it clears Cuba will be the best look we get. I am waiting for the 00 runs with bated breath. If this was a well organized system not making an axis run at Cuba it would be a no brainer-but it's not. We'll see soon.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: nasa's reaction [Re: clueless]
      #71681 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM

Quote:

Sounds as if NASA has desiced that they can wait until the morning to decide whether to pull the shuttle from the pad. I would hate to be the person who had to make that decision. They have one, or possibly 2, more launch attemt opportunities, but if they wait too long... talk about stress




NASA is in a bit of a pickle, if they pull the orbiter back, they can pretty much write off this window. There are only three other days, two in October and one in December, that they can launch this year if they can't launch by the 11th. I think between the lightning hit and Ernesto, their luck may have run out on getting it up by then.

--------------------
Jim


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