MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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On the drive in this a.m. Channel 6 was saying that they will be moving the path a little more east at the 11:00am run.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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the heights have risen over the Bahamas meaning the high is holding in place there (actually strengthened a little), which should keep from escaping out to sea, and on a general NW to NNW track toward south Fl. The exact timing of the short wave trough digging down from the Mississippi valley will ultimately determine exactly where makes his turn more N to NNE to NE in the next 60-72 hours or so. In other words, there is very little doubt in my mind that will go north into that corridor between the trough approaching from the NW and the retreating high to its east. That being said, it is a matter of exactly when and where that opening (weakness) will actually occur, thereby funneling the storm off in the aforementioned NNE to NE direction in time.
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W.D. Duncan
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Channel 6 is also the weather station two years ago when was approaching that deviated their forecast from , showing charlie moving further west off shore, and basically stating it would be a nonevent for Orlando. So just be cautious with them, they have a tendency to deviate similiar to Accuweather.
The models really havent changed much since the 12Z. While they could be right, I would like to know what Crystal Ball they are using.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Well I think that there is a chance that moisture from 's outter bubble is going to erode that high and if you look at the water vapor loop.. well.. you tell me.
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html
Or rather.. will tell us all..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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The Bear
Unregistered
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I don't know what to think right now, although I think alot of people feel that way. Atleast the models are becoming more consistant and in much more agreement today of 's possible path and bringing the track right up the western center of Florida. Also, looking at the satellite images, there appears to be some stronger upperlevel winds pushing west, which I believe will inhibit the system form moving any further east than the current path. I believe once it crosses Cuba and enters the Gulf Stream it will rapidly gain strength and continue in it's NW direction, with even a possible WNW track until it is picked up by the low pressure system and pulled across/up the Florida peninsula. Thats just what I think could potentially happen. Nobody knows that will do I don't think until is passes over Cuba, so until then it's pretty much a waiting game for southern Florida.
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Ned
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
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Looks like he is pulling in vapor to create his own path to sidestep Cuba.Getting a little better organized.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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SHIPS has lowered its intensity forcasts to 79mph in 72 hours and 82mph in 96 hours. How does it get stronger going over Florida?
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sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 134
Loc: West Central Florida
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Does anyone have any idea of how long it will take to cross over Cuba today? I think at that point we will definatley have a better idea of where he is headed.
Thanks,
Christine
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inHISgrip
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Venice, FL.
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Last sat image looks like he started to move w/nw. I think he will be over cuba est. 18 hrs if he goes the track.
Gods speed
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...andthis general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. On the forecast track. ..Ernesto will be moving over eastern Cubatoday...and possibly emerge off the northern coast of Cuba latertonight or Tuesday morning.
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hawg92
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
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Quote:
SHIPS has lowered its intensity forcasts to 79mph in 72 hours and 82mph in 96 hours. How does it get stronger going over Florida?
If it stays close to the east coast, it can draw warm water inflow from the gulf stream without much hindrance. The land in Florida is flat, so the terrain will not weaken it much as long as it can be fed from the ocean.
Jack
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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 39
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The 5 am discussion put knots in my stomach as it very well leaves the possiblity for a Cat 2 or 3 open. Something which the local news media this morning did not focus or put enough attention on.
I hope my fellow South Floridians take precaution. There are so many blue tarps still on so many homes, even a strong tropical storm will spell disaster for many people.  
Edited by LisaC (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:19 AM)
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Exactly right whatever year it was Hurricane Fran hit NC it intensified and strenghthened over my city because it's flat and less than 100 miles from the coast. What was different was that we had days of rain and flooding so it also picked up that water and used it to become stronger.
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W.D. Duncan
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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If you watch the visible floater very closely in the last two frames the center has actually moved wsw back towards the coast. What wil this crazy storm do next?
Hurricane (Port Charlotte '04)
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
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Don't forget that So. FL (The Everglades) is nothing but water
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Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter
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The Bear
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Yup I saw that too. Interesting. That kinda goes with my saying of what I thought a bit earlier!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Dr. Master's blog is out at www.wunderground.com. I don't want to paraphrase what he said, so I suggest anyone interested go to that page. It does seem to be better news for Florida and worse for the Carloina's.
It's interesting, they can't fly into the storm now because its over Cuba.
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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
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Looking at the models and the upper air and surrounding environment how good or likely is it that will impact the Carolina's?
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W.D. Duncan
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the center moved inland over or just west of guantanamo based on SFC obs. it was reorganizing some just prior to landfall. think the more n than w movement will generally continue over land until it contacts the stronger easterly winds at the SFC... but they should keep convergence increased near the storm now that it is out of the shadow of elevated hispaniola. the mountains in se cuba are fairly high, too.. but not nearly as destructive as those on hispaniola. should pass that hilly knob on the coast to the nnw and be back out over water around sunset, i think. spend all night reorganizing and all day reintensifying. a slight westward track over the official would be better as the middle keys/glades would take the brunt of the storm, which will still likely be small in expanse. a slightly eastward track would put the core of the storm running over the heavily developed southeast coast of the state and on up the coast. the mention that it could spin all the way back up to near or at major status is not idle banter... the threat of this storm becoming a substantial system before it hits florida on thursday is not to be taken lightly. the guy on here saying put up your shutters if you have them should be heeded today.
a number of the global models are hanging up the storm near the nc coast at the end of the week, as a rex-sort of feature blocks it and causes it to loop or back up near the coast. a stronger system is less likely to be caught... but if it moves more over florida and weakens then the probably is on to something. euro has been showing it stall since the other day. i'm sure by mid week the folks in north carolina will have a more clear picture of the threat. the official track also implies that hurricane conditions may occur over the ne florida/georgia and south carolina coasts. this would be from an exiting and not impacting storm more than likely, so shouldn't be as bad... but i'm sure zones 1 and maybe 2 on the coast will be forced to evacuate over the next couple days as a precaution if the storm strengthens much before hitting florida.
we're going to be dealing with all week, and maybe into labor day weekend.
HF 1337z28august
dang... masters beat me to the punch on a lot of that... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:41 AM)
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 335
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Dr. Master's blog is out at www.wunderground.com. I don't want to paraphrase what he said, so I suggest anyone interested go to that page. It does seem to be better news for Florida and worse for the Carloina's.
It's interesting, they can't fly into the storm now because its over Cuba.
While an interesting read, the justifications for being weak are 100% based upon history - NOT upon current meteorological data.
Were we looking back at 50 years of computer model data and seeing identical atmospheric forces, then and ONLY then would historical analogs be meaningful. Until then, it's trivia knowledge only. Listen to the updates, discussions and the products released by your local EOC.
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