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#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3955
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ernesto Over Cuba
      #71845 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:07 AM

4:45PM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up Vero Beach Southward, the hurricane watch from New Smyrna Beach southward also remains up.

Tropical Storm Warnings for the West coast run from Chokoloskee southward. Tropical Storm watches are up from there north to Englewood.

More to come soon.

Original Update
Ernesto is currently inland over southeastern Cuba, barely a tropical storm at this time. It is feeling the effects of both land plus an upper level low immediately to its north. Those of you who have been watching Ernesto since it's birth may recall that this is the upper low that was located about 10 degrees N of the storm at its inception. Model guidance initially called for it to fracture and move off to the east, but it never did. Instead, it kept a weakness in the ridge and has been the primary culprit for not allowing Ernesto to move toward the west. For instance, the upper low that initially sheared Ernesto -- it got underneath the ridge and accelerated toward the west. Differences in handling the upper low over the Atlantic -- and not the upper low over the Pacific NW -- have resulted in these unforseen track changes, and thus it is the eastern US seaboard from Miami all the way up to the Outer Banks and potentially New England that is under the gun from Ernesto, and not Texas.

Hurricane watches are currently up along the east coast of Florida from the keys to New Smyrna Beach, FL, with Ernesto forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall in the next 2 days or so. Residents along the entire Eastern seaboard need to pay attention to the evolution of Ernesto over the next couple of days. There is always a chance that Ernesto is significantly affected by interactions with Cuba, necessitating future track changes, so stay tuned.

More to come soon...

Know of evacuations or closures for schools, business, ports, governments, etc? Let everyone know here



Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop

Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL


West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

"This Week in the Tropics" with Dave Tolleris from wxrisk.com has an audio show with Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) at 8PM EDT. Mike Watkins will be discussing Ernesto with.

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.



Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #71849 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 AM

Did anyone else see that the NHC is forecasting the storm actually strengthens over land ? Maybe because of it's proximity to the atlantic, or could it be an error ? Either way, this storm is definitely one to watch. A little nudge here a little wobble there, a speed up or a slow down will definitely impact this forecast. Bottom line this forecast is as good as the information was at 10:40 AM today.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #71853 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 AM

As explained in an earlier blog its going over the glades and part of the Atlantic Ocean.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 121
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #71854 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:19 AM

That's not unusual with a "coast runner" like this. If the COC actuallly stays over water it could be serious trouble for a lot of people, because instead of exposing only a small area to high winds and surge it would instead run up the coastline while wreaking havoc all the way up.

As the storm approaches you'd get high water/wave action from the east, and as it passes you'd get low water and wind from the west, with the impacts moving generally northward along the coast. Such a "coastrunner" is in fact pretty much what the official forecast calls for right now, and it puts a lot more people potentially "under the gun".

However, let's not forget the cone. The entire peninsula is within it, along with the big bend. ....


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Genesis]
      #71857 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM

NHC just added central FL to watches and warnings through Wednesday night:

INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...ORLANDO...SANFORD...
MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...VERO BEACH...
OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...DAYTONA BEACH...
TITUSVILLE
1106 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN INLAND
HURRICANE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 335
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Forum Rules Reminder [Re: Genesis]
      #71859 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM

For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year
is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:

"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."

The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Genesis]
      #71862 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:29 AM

Thats why I mentioned a slight wobble either way, will make a huge difference in who this effects and to what extent. This is not the most well behaved storm around and the track will most likely change some..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: madmumbler]
      #71863 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:31 AM

I had this observation on the last thread. It looks to me that the 11am points for the coc were at the best according to the sat images on the west side of the cloud mass. Is this what I'm seeing or could it be that there is a reformation taking place under the colder clouded area approx 50 mile or so to the east of the 11am advisory position?

Thanks, JOC


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: JOC]
      #71865 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:35 AM

Corerect me if I am wrong but we are done with recon until this guy gets well off Cuba...it is a big guessing game until then.....that could be tonight or even Tuesday

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MikenHoliday
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: pcola]
      #71866 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:40 AM

To me it just appears to be sitting there and not moving. The last few hours I can not see any motion? Anyone disagree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html


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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: JOC]
      #71867 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:40 AM

Quote:

I had this observation on the last thread. It looks to me that the 11am points for the coc were at the best according to the sat images on the west side of the cloud mass. Is this what I'm seeing or could it be that there is a reformation taking place under the colder clouded area approx 50 mile or so to the east of the 11am advisory position?

Thanks, JOC


He has been trying to creep around E. tip of Cuba all morning.Think He's getting close.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellit...le&itype=ir


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JOC
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Ned]
      #71870 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:45 AM

According to my untrained eyes when it comes to sat reading, if he is not reforming to the east somehow, then it looks to me as if it is being torn apart by the land and mountain area's over Cuba. Does anyone see what I'm seeing?

JOC


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DrewC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 10
Loc: Auburndale, FL 28.10N 81.80W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: MikenHoliday]
      #71871 - Mon Aug 28 2006 11:56 AM

I know it's too short for determining path changes, but looking at the last few frames of the satellite images, it appears that Ernesto is bound and determined NOT to go over Cuba. It almost looks like he is backing up a little to go around the north side of the island. This seems to be a storm that is constantly reinventing himself.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: JOC]
      #71872 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:00 PM

reports are saying that ernersto will landfall around miami and ride the coast up to PALM BAY, FL where it will exit back into the Atlantic as category 1 storm moving toward CAPE HATTERAS, NC. They say it will just skim the OUTER BANKS of NC, not weakening the storm at all. Then after that it could follow a path back into the atlantic, or else move into the tristate area of NJ/NY/CONN.

WHAT ARE OTHER PEOPLES PREDICTIONS ON Ernesto.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN 36.26N 82.72W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: Ryan]
      #71874 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:03 PM

I am looking at the vis. satellite loop and I can see two spins in Ernesto, one to the left over Cuba and one to the far right of Cuba. Any thoughts on which one mighjt be the center?


--------------------


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71875 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:09 PM

Can anyone tell me how what speed Ernesto is moving right now? And I also believe that you see two spins because again Ernesto is reforming or trying to reform his center since he is experiencing some disruption due to Cuba. My 2 cents nothing more nothing less.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71876 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:10 PM

You're very close Hurricaneguy, but Looking at the doppler out of Gitmo, it looks like the center maybe in between your circles. I think that the NHC May have improperly missplaced the center. The radar image is giving me the imprission that the center is about to emerge off the North Coast of Cuba about North, or NNW of Gitmo, slowly moving NW. It looks like on radar, the NHC may have mistaken a dry slot between the tight inner core with a rather large feederband on the south and east side as being the center just North of Gitmo. This could be where all of the convection is comming from. Of course, the Gitmo radar definetly does not give us the best image in the world, so I could be mistaken.

If this is the case, it looks like the center may parallel the coast of northern cuba similar to Hurricane Georges back in 98. Most likely not the whole coast though.

--------------------
Lived in Florida 31 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71877 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:13 PM

Unless Ernesto is reforming, the center is on the east, because the last fixed center was near Gitmo...If Earnesto does reform east, we may very well end up with a fishspinner...a deviation of 60 -100 miles will keep the storm offshore assuming a track similiar to NHC...probably be a stronger storm though...and if the storm does get to FL and stays over land, it will loose intensity and spin down...the NHC is having a tough time with this as we all are, so better safe than sorry

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Gustav
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: MikeC]
      #71878 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:13 PM

Hello all. In the short period of time that Ernesto was a hurricane, it's wind speed was 75 (just barely over threshold of being classed as a 'cane). Does the NHC err in caution and possibly 'bump' up a storm status (for precautionary reasons)? This is in no way a slam on the NHC, I'm just curious. On a side note, probably some, but not much difference in a high powered TS and a weak Hurricane. Great job to the admin. of this site, highly informational and educational.

Gustav


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #71879 - Mon Aug 28 2006 12:18 PM

The LLC is in the western most section of the storm...over land...moving pretty much as predicted...
it is not uncommon for some reorganization to occur in connection with a land crossing..I should differentiate now that I have seen the graphic i am responding to...the LLC is the eastern most of the two you circled.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Mon Aug 28 2006 12:21 PM)


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